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As the world embarks on a global mission to tackle climate change, reducing carbon represents a key challenge given the escalating global warming. The U.K. is among many other nations that are determined to decarbonise all sectors and strive to achieve a net zero carbon target by 2050. While much attention has been paid to improving performance and reducing carbon emissions in electrical machines, the current research landscape focuses mainly on the thermal and electromagnetic facets. Surprisingly, carbon emissions from the production stage, especially those related to raw material consumption, remain a largely unexplored area. This paper wishes to shed light on a neglected dimension by providing a comprehensive review of carbon emissions in the manufacture of electrical machines, thus contributing significantly to the wider discourse on carbon emission reduction by comparing the carbon emission values associated with various materials commonly used for the main components of these machines. A further case study is included to assess and explore the impact of material alterations on a synchronous machine, from a carbon emission perspective. A reliable material guide will provide engineers at the design stage with the critical insight needed to make informed material selection decisions, highlighting the critical role of carbon emission values beyond conventional thermal and electromagnetic considerations, achieving sustainable and environmentally conscious electrical machine design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing body of research into the environmental and socio-economic benefits of green infrastructure supports the case for it to be positioned as a form of critical infrastructure, particularly in urban settings. It is broadly recognized that extreme weather and climate change pose significant risks to critical infrastructure systems linked to the provision of services, including electricity, water, communications, and transport, and consequently risk assessments and associated adaptation strategies are common practice. However, although green infrastructure is also at risk from extreme weather and climate change, threatening the realization of benefits that it can deliver in urban settings, associated risks to green infrastructure are not widely understood or assessed in practice. This paper discusses the status of existing research on this topic and uses this as a foundation for a Greater Manchester (UK) case study that assesses the risk of low water availability to grassed areas, which represent a key element of the city-region's green infrastructure. In doing so, the paper demonstrates how risks linked to extreme weather and climate change can be assessed spatially to inform green infrastructure planning. In summary, this paper aims to raise awareness of extreme weather and climate change risk to urban green infrastructure, present an empirical case study and associated methodological approach on this topic, and ultimately support efforts to enhance the resilience of urban green infrastructure to extreme weather and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.K. food system exhibits strong unsustainability indicators across multiple dimensions, both in terms of food and nutritional insecurity and in terms of adverse climate change, biodiversity, and physical resource impacts. These indices of an unsustainable and inequitable social metabolism are the result of capitalist agriculture and society in general and, more specifically, of neoliberal and austerity policies adopted with vigour since the global financial crisis. The causal, capitalistic, and, latterly, more neoliberal bases of the U.K. food system are delineated in the first section of the paper. These bases are then detailed in terms of their impacts in exacerbating climate change, biodiversity (and resource) decline and loss, and food and nutritional insecurity. The political narratives and policy frameworks available to dissemble, mitigate, or, more rarely, to address (resolve) these impacts are then delineated. It is argued that the only policy framework available that strongly integrates food security (social equity) with ecological sustainability is political agroecology and an accompanying degrowth strategy. The final section of the paper details what political agroecology and degrowth might entail for the U.K. food system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood hazards present a significant risk to the UK, with homes, businesses and critical infrastructure exposed to a mixture of fluvial, surface water and coastal flooding. Climate change is expected to influence river flows, changing the frequency and magnitude of future flood events. Flood hazard assessments are used by decision-makers to implement policies and engineering interventions to reduce the impacts of these flood events. Probabilistic flood modelling can explore input and parameter uncertainties in flood models to fully quantify inundation uncertainty. However, probabilistic methods require large computational costs—limiting their application. This paper investigates a range of advanced uncertainty quantification methods (traditional Monte Carlo (FMC), Kriging and multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC)) to reduce the dichotomy between accuracy and costs. Results suggest that Kriging can reduce computational costs by 99.9% over FMC. The significantly increased efficiency has the potential to improve future policy and engineering decisions, reducing the impacts of future flood events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several factors control the vulnerability of historic geostructures to climate change. These factors are both temporally and spatially variable depending on construction techniques and climatic conditions. This paper provides a review of both the historical construction practices on the UK transport network and recent developments in the understanding of climate change effects, allowing for an assessment of the impact of climate change on existing geostructures. Geostructures in the UK can be split between pre-regulation and post-regulation construction techniques. In general, highways were constructed after the implementation of modern regulations and are therefore less vulnerable to climate change due to formalisation of construction methods. In comparison, the performance of the railway network has shown to be inferior due to historic construction practices including poor or absent compaction, lack of consideration for foundations, or selection of fill materials. Recent findings have shown that the impacts of climate change are also a multiscale problem, influenced not only by regional geology but also the pore structure of soils and its evolution. While the research into these impacts is critical, the limitations of common methods employed to survey these structures and study the behaviour of their constituent materials requires consideration. In this paper, these aspects are examined in detail in a bid to integrate holistically the complexity of the systems involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this last paper in a series of four, we will enquire into key developments affecting economic growth in the near future, consider potential restructuring effects that current and future economic events could cause and survey suggestions from literature for long-term sustainability of growth trends. Discussing climate change, COVID-19 economic recovery, automation, and future growth with a view to global development, we explore where growth may take economies, and how we may foster growth in a rapidly changing international economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research project discussed in this paper is driven by the United Kingdom's (UK's) need to reduce operational energy and carbon by promoting the adoption of the Active Building (AB) concept for UK building projects. The AB concept offers a practical solution to reducing the operational energy use and carbon emissions of buildings by using emerging technologies applied to architectural design; thus, helping the UK meet its decarbonisation targets and, consequently, helping to combat the global problem of climate change. The aim of the project was to design and implement an AB Protocol with an AB Toolkit, to provide a knowledge base and sustainable architectural design guidance to aid the design of ABs. The AB Toolkit was tested, evaluated, and refined by engaging with architectural designers in the UK through focus groups (FGs) that combined data collection with knowledge dissemination—a method which provided a contribution to the continuous professional development (CPD) of architectural designers in the UK, while aiding the research project. The FG data proved the original hypothesis that a whole host of measures are needed to support the adoption of the AB concept (as outlined in the AB Protocol), but that some design guidance was needed initially to enable the development of other supporting measures. Therefore, the main output of this research project was the development of a structured approach to enable architectural designers and other built-environment professionals to adopt the AB concept for the delivery of net zero operational energy buildings, supporting the aims of the SPECIFIC Innovation and Knowledge Centre, Swansea University, and the Active Building Centre (ABC). The method of data collection developed, and the structured approach to enabling the adoption of a new concept outlined, could be beneficial to other researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the temporary variation of the area-orientated annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) with respect to the three spatial properties: location, size and shape of the region-of-interest (ROI) in Great Britain and Australia using two century-long datasets. The Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo methods are employed to quantify the time-varying frequency of AMDR, where a large proportion of the ROIs shows a non-decreasing level of most frequent AMDR. While the most frequent AMDR values generally decrease with larger-sized ROIs, their temporal variation that can be attributed to the climate change impact does not show the same dependency on the size. Climate change impact on ROI-orientated extreme rainfall is seen higher for rounded shapes although the ROI shape is not as significant as the other two spatial properties. Comparison of the AMDR at different return levels shows an underestimation by conventionally used stationary models in regions where a nonstationary (i.e., time-varying) model is preferred. The findings suggest an overhaul of the current storm design procedure in view of the impact of not only climate change but also spatial variation in natural processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the result of a project to develop climate adaptation design strategies funded by the UK's Technology Strategy Board. The aim of the project was to look at the threats and opportunities presented by industrialized and house-building techniques in the light of predicted future increases in flooding and overheating due to anthropogenic climate change. The paper shows that the thermal performance of houses built to the current UK Building Regulations is not adequate to cope with changing weather patterns, and in light of this, develops a detailed design for a new house: one that is industrially produced and climatically resilient, but affordable. This detailed concept IDEAhaus of a modular house is not only flood-proof to a water depth of 750 mm, but also is designed to utilize passive cooling, which dramatically reduces the amount of overheating, both now and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Woodland creation has become an important objective for a variety of stakeholders to help tackle the climate and biodiversity crises. One of the key evidence needs is a better understanding of the multiple factors influencing the willingness and ability of landowners and managers to establish new woodlands. To address this gap, a systematic map of evidence was prepared comprising publications from academic journals and grey literature accessed through bibliographic databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and CAB Abstracts), libraries, direct requests to relevant organisations and individuals, and citation tracking from past reviews. A screening process refined the evidence base to 226 studies within the UK. The systematic evidence map codes the content of each study against a comprehensive list comprising actors, drivers of or barriers to woodland creation, and outcomes. These are presented as a freely accessible, interactive online dashboard detailing sources of evidence. The systematic evidence map helps users navigate the evidence, demonstrating where the bulk of the evidence lies and, conversely, several evidence gaps where there is comparatively little evidence. The findings serve as a basis for dialogue with stakeholders to determine priorities for future primary research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural risk, causing over £1 billion of damage per year in the UK as a result of recent events. Climatic projections predict an increase in flood risk; it becomes urgent to assess climate change impact on extreme flows, and evaluate uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 1:100 year return period across Great Britain as a result of climate change using the Future Flows Hydrology database. The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalised Pareto (GP) models are automatically fitted for 11-member ensemble flow series available for the baseline and the 2080s. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the Extreme Value (EV) and climate model parameters. Results suggest that GP and GEV give similar runoff estimates and uncertainties. From the baseline to the 2080s, increasing estimate and uncertainties is evident in east England. With the GEV the uncertainty attributed to the climate model parameters is greater than for the GP (around 60% and 40% of the total uncertainty, respectively). This shows that when fitting both EV models, the uncertainty related to their parameters has to be accounted for to assess extreme runoffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From an economic perspective, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is one of Europe's most important tree species. It is characterized by its wide ecological adaptability across its natural range. This research aimed to evaluate the forest structure, productivity and especially radial growth of heterogenous pine stands in 16 research plots in the Czech Republic, Poland, Spain and Great Britain. The study assessed the tree-ring formation and its relationship to climate change for each country, using 163 dendrochronological samples. The stand volume of mature pine forest ranged between 91 and 510 m3 ha−1, and the carbon sequestration in the tree biomass was 40–210 t ha−1. The stands had a prevailing random distribution of trees, with a high vertical structure close to selection forests (forest stands with typical very diverse height, diameter and age structure). Spectral analyses showed a substantial decrease in fluctuations in the tree-ring index and a loss in natural growth cyclicity in the last thirty years. The results also evinced that mean air temperature was the most important factor influencing the radial growth compared to precipitation totals. Pine thrives in precipitation-stable locations, as shown by the results from Great Britain. The conclusions of this study confirm the fundamental effect of ongoing global climate change on the dynamics and growth of pine forests in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As organisations, museums are responsible for conserving, protecting, and displaying artwork and artefacts. Museum buildings must deliver an environment that will continue to provide this facility for both current and future generations. This research focused on presenting a museum with quantifiable and measurable data to help with climate adaptation planning. A methodology was developed using monitored data. Subhourly data for both indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity spanning the years 2012–2021 was used to produce a daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily average dataset. A sensitivity analysis determined which years to use to derive the indoor-outdoor relationships used in climate modelling. Future impacts were calculated using UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data (12 models on a 2.2 km scale), as published by the Met Office Hadley Centre. The data contained within the 12 models was overlayed with the relationships derived to calculate the projected indoor temperature and humidity conditions within the museum. The results presented indicate that temperature and humidity conditions are projected to exceed design conditions more frequently in the coming decades. Consequently, adaptation plans must consider the potential impacts that include indoor environmental deterioration, leading to discomfort and health implications, increased energy costs, and system upgrade costs, as well as the potential for accelerated degradation of artwork and artefacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by rising the likelihood of surface runoff. Here, hourly high-resolution rainfall projections from a 1.5 km ('convection-permitting') regional climate model are used to simulate the soil erosion response for two periods of the century (1996–2009 and a 13-year future period at ~2100) in the "Rother" catchment, West Sussex, England. Modeling soil erosion with EROSION 3D, we found a general increase in sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century of about 43.2%, with a catchment-average increase from 0.176 to 0.252 t ha−1 y−1 and large differences between areas with diverse land use. These results highlight the effectiveness of using high-resolution rainfall projections to better account for spatial variability in the assessment of long-term soil erosion than other current methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has highlighted the need to promote renewable energies. The offshore wind industry is growing exponentially because of some political strategies supported by various organizations, such as the European Union. The implementation of these strategies is commonly associated with significant investments, public acceptance, or achieving better installations and greater cumulative capacities. To ensure that offshore renewable energy projects could reach their ambitious targets, this study promotes the implementation of political strategies or planning decisions using data mining techniques and analytical tools. Strategic decisions based on real data analysis could help to achieve more suitable and optimal infrastructures. The scour phenomenon jeopardizes the operability of offshore wind farms, making it necessary to study its evolution over the years. In this work, extensive research on the scour phenomenon in offshore wind farms using real data (from the Lynn and Inner Dowsing offshore wind farms located in the UK) was performed, which revealed an evident lack of consideration of this phenomenon for data-driven decision-making processes. As a novelty, this research develops a detailed geospatial analysis of data, studying the possible autocorrelation of scour data measured from each turbine between 2011 and 2015. The conclusions obtained could be used to improve future planning tasks in offshore wind farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses an imminent physical risk to cultural heritage sites and their surrounding landscape through intensifying environmental processes such as damaging wetting and drying cycles that disrupt archaeological preservation conditions, and soil erosion which threatens to expose deposits and alter the archaeological context of sites. In the face of such threats, geospatial techniques such as GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modelling have proved invaluable tools for archaeological research and cultural heritage monitoring. This paper presents the application of secondary multi-source and multi-temporal geospatial data within a processing framework to provide a comprehensive assessment of geophysical risk to the Roman fort of Magna, Carvoran, UK. An investigation into the ancient hydraulic system at Magna was carried out with analysis of vegetation change over time, and spatio-temporal analysis of soil erosion risk at the site. Due to COVID-19 restrictions in place at the time of this study, these analyses were conducted using only secondary data with the aim to guide further archaeological research, and management and monitoring strategies for the stakeholders involved. Results guided inferences about the ancient hydraulic system, providing insights regarding how to better manage the site at Magna in the future. Analysis of soil erosion allowed the identification of hot spot areas, indicating a future increase in rates of erosion at Magna and suggesting a seasonal period of higher risk of degradation to the site. Results have proven that freely available multi-purpose national-scale datasets are sufficient to create meaningful insights into archaeological sites where physical access to the site is inhibited. This infers the potential to carry out preliminary risk assessment to inform future site management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of “critical friends” has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With evidence suggesting that climate change is resulting in changes within the hydrologic cycle, the ability to robustly model hydroclimatic response is critical. This paper assesses how extreme runoff—1:2- and 1:30-year return period (RP) events—may change at a regional level across the UK by the 2080s (2069–2098). Capturing uncertainty in the hydroclimatic modelling chain, flow projections were extracted from the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe) multi-model ensemble: five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) General Circulation Models and four hydrological models forced under emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (5 × 4 × 2 chains). Uncertainty in extreme value parameterisation was captured through consideration of two methods: generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised logistic (GL). The method was applied across 192 catchments and aggregated to eight regions. The results suggest that, by the 2080s, many regions could experience large increases in extreme runoff, with a maximum mean change signal of +34% exhibited in East Scotland (1:2-year RP). Combined with increasing urbanisation, these estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape. Model chain uncertainty was found to increase by the 2080s, though extreme value (EV) parameter uncertainty becomes dominant at the 1:30-year RP (exceeding 60% in some regions), highlighting the importance of capturing both the associated EV parameter and ensemble uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been increasing recognition that climate change may lead to risk of summertime overheating in UK dwellings with potentially adverse consequences for human comfort and health. This paper investigates the magnitude of summertime overheating over one month in 2017, in four new flats built to identical thermal standards, with similar occupancy patterns and located in the same block in a development in Southeast England. Both static and adaptive methods were used to assess the overheating risk, while the variation in indoor temperatures across the flats was examined through key building characteristics including floor level, glazing orientation, exposed surface area to floor area ratio (SA/FA), glazing area to floor area ratio, and ventilation. Data collection included continuous monitoring of indoor and outdoor temperature, relative humidity, CO2 levels and opening/closing of windows. Summertime overheating was found to be prevalent in all four flats but was most pronounced in two top floor flats with high SA/FA ratio and east/west facing glazing. Due to limited window opening and locational limitations of one flat, some conclusions were derived from three flats. Though the study sample is small, it is clear that overheating in new housing is a current issue and designing for avoidance of summertime overheating should become mainstream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water is a fundamental component in primary food production, whether it be rainfall, irrigation used to water crops, or for supplying drinking water for animals, while the amount of water in the soil determines it capacity to support machinery and animals. We identify that UK agriculture is exposed to five main water-related risks: agricultural drought, scarcity of water resources, restrictions on the right to abstract water, excess soil water, and inundation. Projected milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers by the end of the century will change the frequency, persistence, or severity of each of these risks. This paper critically reviews and synthesizes the scientific literature on the impact of these risks on primary food production and the technological and managerial strategies employed to build resilience to these changing risks. At the farm scale, the emphasis has been on strategies to build robustness to reduce the impact of a water-related risk. However, collaborative partnerships allow for a more optimal allocation of water during times of scarcity. Enhancing cross-scale interactions, learning opportunities, and catchment-scale autonomy will be key to ensuring the agricultural system can build adaptive and transformational capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of the changing climate have caused extensive disruption to the road network in the United Kingdom in recent years. Roads are vital for economic growth and social wellbeing, and a disruption to the network can have disastrous consequences. Since the impacts of climate change will be felt at regional and local levels, it is the responsibility of local highway authorities to establish effective policies to strengthen the resilience of their section of the road network. This report uses the West Midlands as a case study and aims to evaluate its regional highway network management strategies, to determine the extent to which they promote resilience to climate change. Recommendations and findings from other literature are used to establish a set of evaluation criteria to compare the maturity of highway network management strategies for the West Midlands region. The evaluation of the policy documents is used to rank the maturity of the strategies, and recommendations are made to local authorities to highlight where the strategies could be improved. The analysis highlights the fragmentation and disparity between highways strategies across the region and consequently the vulnerability of the region to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency is one of the most prominent global challenges of our era. Heritage buildings usually have a poor energy performance, not necessarily because of their intrinsic constructive features but due to their mostly dilapidated condition owed to age and previous damage, exacerbated by other factors such as the limited maintenance allowed by the restrictive legal framework and/or residents not being able to afford retrofit. On both national and international levels, energy efficiency measures are considered the key to answering the global challenge of climate change. This article aims to provide a critical discussion of the policy framework for energy retrofitting targeting built heritage in the UK and in Turkey. To this end, the development of guidance and legislation on cultural heritage, energy efficiency and climate change in both countries were thoroughly reviewed, and the retrofit incentives and constraints were determined in order to identify existing policy gaps and potential problems with implementation in the realm of energy retrofitting and climate resiliency of heritage buildings. As a result of a critical comparative analysis, the paper is concluded with suggestions on policy frames for the retrofitting of heritage buildings for improved energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change drives sea level rise and changes to extreme weather events, which can affect morphodynamics of coastal and estuary systems around the world. In this paper, a 2D process-based numerical model is used to investigate the combined effects of future mean sea level and storm climate variabilities on morphological change of an estuary. Morphodynamically complex, meso-tidal Deben Estuary, located in the Suffolk at the east coast of the UK is selected as our case study site. This estuary has experienced very dynamic behaviors in history thus it might be sensitive to the future climate change. A statistical analysis of future storms around this area, derived from a global wave model, has shown a slight increase of storm wave heights and storm occurrences around the estuary in future as a result of global climate variations under medium emission scenario. By using a process-based model and by combining the forecast 'end-of-century' mean sea level with statistically derived storm conditions using projected storms over a time slice between 2075–2099, we determined hydrodynamic forcing for future morphodynamic modelling scenarios. It is found that the effect of increased sea level combined with future storms can significantly alter the current prevailing morphodynamic regime of the Deben Estuary thus driving it into a less stable system. It is also found that storm waves can be very significant to morphodynamic evolution of this tide-dominated estuary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees in urban environments hold significant value in providing ecosystem services, which will become increasingly important as urban populations grow. Tree phenology is highly sensitive to climatic variation, and resultant phenological shifts have significant impact on ecosystem function. Data on urban tree phenology is important to collect. Typical remote methods to monitor tree phenological transitions, such as satellite remote sensing and fixed digital camera networks, are limited by financial costs and coarse resolutions, both spatially and temporally and thus there exists a data gap in urban settings. Here, we report on a pilot study to evaluate the potential to estimate phenological metrics from imagery acquired with a conventional dashcam fitted to a car. Dashcam images were acquired daily in spring 2020, March to May, for a 2000 m stretch of road in Melksham, UK. This pilot study indicates that time series imagery of urban trees, from which meaningful phenological data can be extracted, is obtainable from a car-mounted dashcam. The method based on the YOLOv3 deep learning algorithm demonstrated suitability for automating stages of processing towards deriving a greenness metric from which the date of tree green-up was calculated. These dates of green-up are similar to those obtained by visual analyses, with a maximum of a 4-day difference; and differences in green-up between trees (species-dependent) were evident. Further work is required to fully automate such an approach for other remote sensing capture methods, and to scale-up through authoritative and citizen science agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency pose an increasing risk to coastline communities. We present a new method for estimating extreme sea levels that accounts for the effects of climate change on extreme events that are not accounted for by mean sea level trends. We follow a joint probabilities methodology, considering skew surge and peak tides as the only components of sea levels. We model extreme skew surges using a non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) with covariates accounting for climate change, seasonality and skew surge–peak tide interaction. We develop methods to efficiently test for extreme skew surge trends across different coastlines and seasons. We illustrate our methods using data from four UK tide gauges and estimate sea level return levels when accounting for these long-term trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we present the use of the coupled land surface model and groundwater flow model SWAT-MODFLOW with the decision support tool WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning software) to predict future surface-water abstraction scenarios in a complex river basin under conditions of climate change. The modelling framework is applied to the Dee River catchment in Wales, United Kingdom. Regarding hydrology, the coupled model improves overall water balance and low-streamflow conditions compared with a stand-alone SWAT model. The calibrated SWAT-MODFLOW is employed with high-resolution climate model data from the UKCP18 project with the future scenario of RCP85 from 2020 to 2040. Then, water supply results from SWAT-MODFLOW are fed into WEAP as input for the river reach in the downstream region of the river basin. This system is utilized to create various future scenarios of the surface-water abstraction of public water supply in the downstream region—maximum licensed withdraw, 50% authorized abstractions, monthly time series with 1% increases in water use, and maximum water withdraw per year based on historical records repeated every year with 1% increases in water use—to estimate the unmet demands and streamflow requirement. This modelling approach can be used in other river basins to manage scenarios of supply and demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambulance services are in operation around the world and yet, until recently, ambulance data has only been used for operational purposes rather than for assessing public health. Ambulance call-out data offers new and valuable (near) real-time information that can be used to assess the impact of environmental conditions, such as temperature, upon human health. A detailed analysis of London ambulance data at a selection of dates between 2003 and 2015 is presented and compared to London temperature data. In London, the speed of ambulance response begins to suffer when the mean daily air temperature drops below 2 °C or rises above 20 °C. This is explained largely by the increased number of calls past these threshold temperatures. The baseline relationships established in this work will inform the prediction of likely changes in ambulance demand (and illness types) that may be caused by seasonal temperature changes and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme/severe weather events, exacerbated by climate change, in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses numerical thermal simulation to investigate the potential use of building geometry to eliminate or reduce current and future thermal discomfort overheating risk in UK Passivhaus dwellings. The study focused on the optimum inclination of a south façade to make use of the building shape to self-protect itself. Dynamic simulation modelling software was used to test a range of different inclined façades with regards to their effectiveness in reducing overheating risk. The research found that implementing a tilted façade could completely eliminate the risk of overheating for current UK climates, but with some consequences for natural ventilation and daylighting. Future overheating was significantly reduced by the tilted façade. However, geometric considerations could not eradicate completely the risk of thermal discomfort overheating, particularly by the 2080s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate is warming rapidly, with increasing frequency of severe events including heatwaves. Building insulation standards are improving to reduce emissions, but this can also lead to more overheating. Historically, UK house designers have not included adaptation measures to limit this. Most studies of the problem have had limited geographical or future climate scope. This study considers the comfort performance of a small modern house, in detached, semi-detached, and terrace (row) forms, but otherwise identical. Overheating is evaluated according to established criteria, including night-time bedroom hours over 26 °C. Simulations are carried out using median future weather years for current, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s climates under medium- and high-emission scenarios for 14 regions of the UK. The results show a very large increase in overheating by the 2080s in all regions. With solar shading and natural ventilation, overheating is reduced considerably, maintaining comfort in most northern regions in the 2050s and a few northern regions in the 2080s. Differences between medium and high emissions are generally less than between different decades. Terraced (row) houses consistently overheat slightly more than semi-detached, with detached showing the least overheating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ammonia is gaining popularity around the world due to its advantages as an energy vector over other zero-carbon fuels and has the potential to be a key component for deep decarbonisation of energy systems. However, little is known about public attitudes and concerns about the technology, one of the factors that will determine its successful implementation. This research examined public perception of green ammonia technologies through online surveys conducted in Mexico (n = 563) and the UK (n = 357). The results suggest that most of the participants in the two countries support the development of these technologies, with men being more likely to show support than women. Participants in Mexico and the UK had both negative and neutral associations of ammonia as a chemical, but overall perceptions of green ammonia were surprisingly positive. A multiple regression analysis indicates that support for this technology is highly dependent on the way participants perceive the benefits and the risks of implementing green ammonia as a fuel or for storage in their countries. Perceptions of green ammonia presented in this study must be interpreted cautiously because of the novelty of the concept. Therefore, additional research should be carried out to determine the positive opinion of green ammonia obtained in the research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent to which the quality and yield of plant varieties are influenced by the environment is important for their successful uptake by end users particularly as climatic fluctuations are resulting in environments that are highly variable from one growing season to another. The genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) of milling quality and yield was studied using four winter oat varieties in multi-locational trials over 4 years in the U.K. Significant differences across the 22 environments were found between physical grain quality and composition as well as grain yield, with the environment having a significant effect on all of the traits measured. Grain yield was closely related to grain number m−2 whereas milling quality traits were related to grain size attributes. Considerable genotype by environment interaction was obtained for all grain quality traits and stability analysis revealed that the variety Mascani was the least sensitive to the environment for all milling quality traits measured whereas the variety Balado was the most sensitive. Examination of environmental conditions at specific within-year stages of crop development indicated that both temperature and rainfall during grain development were correlated with grain yield and β-glucan content and with the ease of removing the hull (hullability). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River ecosystems have been heavily degraded globally due to channel hydromorphological modifications or alterations to catchment-wide processes. Restoration actions aimed at addressing these changes and restoring ecological integrity are increasing, but evidence of the effectiveness of these actions is variable. Using a rare 7-year before-after-control-impact (BACI) study of restoration of a lowland groundwater-fed river in England, UK, we explore changes in the macroinvertebrate community following the removal of impoundments and channel narrowing to aid restoration of physical processes. Restoration activity prompted significant taxonomic and functional responses of benthic invertebrate communities in the 4 years post-restoration. Specifically, significant gains in taxonomic and functional richness were evident following restoration, although corresponding evenness and diversity measures did not mirror these trends. Restoration activities prompted a shift to more rheophilic taxa and associated traits matching the physical changes to the channel and habitat composition. Temporal changes were clearer for taxonomic compositions compared to the functional properties of macroinvertebrate communities, indicating a functional redundancy effect of new colonists inhabiting restored reaches following restoration. The results highlight the value of long-term BACI studies in river restoration assessments, as well as project appraisals incorporating both taxonomic and functional observations. We highlight the urgent need of such studies to provide evidence to inform effective river restoration strategies to address future changes such as adaption to climate change and the biodiversity crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a resurgence in the popularity of allotments and home- grown food in the UK. This interest is likely to increase as people become more aware of the health benefits of spending time outdoors. Climate projections for the UK indicate that over the next 20 years, winters will become warmer and wetter, and the summers hotter and drier. Most UK allotments and community gardens are a collection of individual plots whose holders are free to manage them as they wish, within site rules. The efficacy of individual efforts to collect and store rainwater is often limited as most allotment sites were laid out when water practices were a secondary consideration. Our research, which included visiting allotment sites and reviewing growing practices, suggests that grouping plots and sharing water facilities could enable plot holders to store sufficient water to meet anticipated demand for thirty rain-free days in midsummer. This combined with growing practices that improve soil moisture capacity and water use efficiency will provide effective mitigation against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To meet climate change challenges, the UK government is aiming to reach zero emissions by 2050. The heavy-duty transportation sector contributes 17% to the UKs total emissions, so to combat this, alternative power units to traditional fossil fuel-reliant internal combustion engines (ICEs) are being utilized and investigated. Hydrogen fuel cells are a key area of interest to try and reduce these transportation emissions. To gain a true view of the impact that hydrogen fuel cells can have, this study looks at the impact the manufacturing of a fuel cell has upon the environment, from material extraction through to the usage phase. This was done through the use of a lifecycle assessment following ISO 14040 standards, with hydrogen systems being compared to alternative systems. This study has found that whilst fuel cells depend upon energy intensive materials for their construction, it is possible to reduce emissions by 34–87% compared to ICE systems, depending upon the source of hydrogen used. This study shows that hydrogen fuel cells are a viable option for heavy-duty transport that can be utilized to meet the target emissions reduction level by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring reliable drinking water supplies is anticipated to be a key future challenge facing water service providers due to fluctuations in rainfall patterns and water demand caused by climate change. This study investigates historical trends and relationships between precipitation, air temperature and streamflow in five catchments in Wales, before correlating these with actual total abstraction data provided by the water company, to give insight into the supply-demand balance. Changes in seasonal and annual averages, as well as extreme events, are assessed for a 34-year period (1982–2015) and a breakpoint analysis is performed to better understand how climate has already changed and what this might mean for the future of water supply. Results show a north-south divide in changes in extreme temperature and streamflow; a strong warming trend in autumn average temperatures across Wales (Sen's slope range: 0.38–0.41, p <0.05), but little change in precipitation. Abstraction, as a proxy for overall water demand, is shown to be positively correlated to temperature (Spearman's ρ value range: 0.094–0.403, p <0.01; Pearson's r value range 0.073–0.369, p <0.01) in four of five catchments. Our study provides new insight into the relationship between abstraction volume and hydroclimatic factors and highlights the need for catchment-scale water resource planning that accounts for hydroclimatic variations over small spatial distances, as these nuances can be vital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The challenges to forest health from climate change, globalization, contemporary trade practices and new recreational patterns require effective biosecurity. We asked: How is the biosecurity border for tree health understood and enacted by state and non-state actors? What are the consequences for tree health? Semi-structured interviews (N = 10) were conducted with scientists and other relevant actors (N = 21). The border was understood variously as: a biophysical boundary, often the coast; a geopolitical boundary, usually of the European Union; the points of main inspection focus; dispersed nodes of inspection; a 'pre-border' outside of UK; or by the location of detection activities. A wide range of state, non-state and hybrid groups are engaged in border practices. These practices have been altered due to trade and climate changes, are subject to cost and resource priorities and reflect particular knowledge flows and the biological nature of the agents. We suggest that there is an 'everyone' as well as 'everywhere' border that demands clarification of risks, roles and responsibilities, and we offer practical recommendations. We conclude that tree health border challenges are a manifestation of wider sustainability issues that enable us to explore human–nature relationships, democratic engagement and the pursuit of more sustainable futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fracking in the United Kingdom has yet to reach full industrial development, but it is still subject to significant opposition. This study uses Beck's risk society theory and anti-politics to examine the views voiced by opponents to fracking in Yorkshire, England. A qualitative approach was used. Semi-structured interviews with protesters and local newspaper reports were evaluated to provide a thematic analysis. The study drew upon discourse analysis and framing literature to reveal discourses within the interviews. Although there are signs of post-materialist concerns with the environment, these issues did not dominate the discussion. Scientists were not held responsible for the risks involved in fracking. Instead, the economic greediness of politicians and austerity measures were perceived as putting the environment and human health at risk. Interviewees thought fossil fuel energy production was economically advantaged over more sustainable energy and jobs in the low carbon economy. Protesters' trust in politicians had been eroded, but faith in democracy remained. It is argued that the consensual post-politics of risk society have not led to a reinvigoration of democratic debate. Instead anti-politics have taken place, due to the frustration of citizens. Protesters wanted a citizen-led deliberative approach to the concerns raised. Such a process would have to go beyond the consensual, and recognise the inherently agonistic process of democracy if it is to succeed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]