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A crucial aspect analysed during the last years, aiming to improve sugarcane production, is the impact of climate change on sugarcane productivity. One of the strategies to mitigate climate change's impact on sugarcane yield is the development of new varieties known to positively affect crop production. This paper analysed how climate change impacts sugarcane production regarding the different planted varieties. Data regarding sugarcane harvest were collected from a cooperative in the south of Goiás state—Brazil, the second biggest national sugarcane producer. Results indicate that climate impact on sugarcane yield is irrelevant when controlling for different varieties. Considering the results presented in this work, the Brazilian government should keep the incentives for the development of new sugarcane varieties and, at the same time, spur sugarcane producers to use the new sugarcane varieties. The results imply that if the variety is correctly chosen, sugarcane can be produced without harming the environment, contributing to reaching SDG 15. Moreover, it is less probable that an adverse climatic event will destroy the planted area, preventing sugarcane producers from severe loss and contributing to achieving SDGs number 1 and 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change-induced productivity decrease in Brazil. Our methodological framework was based on the General Equilibrium Analysis of the Brazilian Economy Project—PAEGDyn, a dynamic CGE model. The results show that the projected falls in agricultural productivity impose reductions in the performance of Brazilian GDP over time. Even with the use by other sectors of the economy of the factors unemployed in agriculture, there is no intersectoral compensation in economic production over time able to bring it back to the reference trajectory. In addition, the impact will be greater in warmer and poor regions, which depend on agriculture and present greater income inequality, accentuated by the free mobility of production factors within the national border. Therefore, the main implication of this study is the need to allocate scarce resources for adaptation and mitigation policies primarily for these regions, including broadly stimulating economic development with more income distribution. This will allow these regions to protect themselves by making investments in new technologies and modern infrastructure for the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures the influence of climate normals (average long-term surface wetness and temperature) and interannual climate variance on farms in the United States and Brazil using satellite data. The paper finds that just climate normals or just climate variance variables can explain both net revenues and how much land is used for cropland. However, because they are correlated with each other, it is important to include both normals and variance in the same statistical model to get accurate measures of their individual contribution to farm outcomes. In general, higher climate variance increases the probability that land is used for cropland in both countries and higher temperatures reduce both cropland and land values. Other annual effects were not consistent across the two countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decade, the Amazon region has been hit by some of the worst floods in history. The floods killed hundreds of people and damaged thousands of homes. However, in southeast Brazil, specifically in the states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais, a highly significant decreasing rainfall trend has been discovered. The Sao Paulo State drought has had a significant impact on national electrical energy and agricultural productivity. In the last 100 years and 90 years, respectively, 2021 was a record flood in the Amazon region and a record drought in southeast Brazil. According to this study, recent floods in the Amazon and droughts in southeast Brazil, particularly extreme events in 2021, are strongly linked to the changing Hadley cell. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global food system is increasingly interconnected and under pressure to support growing demand. At the same time, crop production is facing new and uncertain impacts from climate change. To date, understanding how downstream supply chain actors, such as commodity traders, are exposed to climate change risks has been difficult due to a lack of high-resolution climate and trade data. However, the recent availability of supply chain data linking subnational production to downstream actors, and gridded projections of crop yield under climate change, allows us to assess individual commodity trader exposure to long-term climate change risk. We apply such an analysis to soy production in Brazil, the world's largest soy exporter. Whilst uncertainty across crop models' yield projections means it remains difficult to accurately predict how production across the region will be affected by climate change, we demonstrate that the risk exposure of trading actors differs substantially due to the heterogeneity in their sourcing. Our study offers a first attempt to analyze subnational climate risk to individual trading actors operating across an entire production landscape, leading to more precise risk exposure analysis. With sufficient subnational data, this method can be applied to any crop and country combination, and in the context of wider food security issues, it will be pertinent to apply these methods across other production systems and downstream actors in the food system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]