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As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Inflammation may constitute an underlying mechanism for increased risk of developing chronic diseases in later years, but few prospective studies have assessed the influence of low-grade inflammation on body weight gain, particularly among children in low- to middle-income settings with lower prevalence of overweight and obesity. We aimed to investigate whether C-reactive protein (CRP), as a biomarker of low-grade inflammation, predicts changes in body mass index-for-age z scores (BAZ) during childhood. Methods: A population-based longitudinal study was conducted in the Brazilian Amazon among children aged ≤10 years in 2007, with follow-up visits in 2009 and 2012. Outcome was annual change in BAZ. As the main exposure of interest, CRP concentrations were divided into four categories, with values <1 mg/L divided in tertiles plus a fourth category with values ranging from 1 to 10 mg/L. Children were simultaneously screened for iron and vitamin A deficiencies, diarrhea, and wheezing. We used mixed-effect linear regression models to measure the effect of CRP concentrations on annual BAZ change and linear regression models to explore CRP predictors at baseline. Results: At baseline, 1007 children had CRP and anthropometric data [mean (SD) age: 5.3 (2.9) years; 50.9% male, 84.5% mulatto/mixed-race, 14.0% at risk for overweight or obesity, 4.8% stunted]; 737 were successfully followed up. Morbidities and nutritional deficiencies were widespread. Among participants aged >5 years, children in the highest tertile of CRP <1 mg/L at baseline, regarded as an indicator of low-grade inflammation, had a 0.04 z/y higher gain in BAZ (95% CI: 0.01, 0.09 z/y) during follow-up. CRP was positively associated with household poverty and worse nutritional indicators. Conclusions: We found evidence of a role for low-grade inflammation in predicting annual BAZ gain among children aged >5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inorganic arsenic (iAs) is an established transplacental agent known to affect fetal development in animal studies. However, iAs has not been adequately studied in the general population with respect to iAs exposure during pregnancy and its impact on the health status of newborns. The aims of this study were to 1) elucidate the association between arsenic exposure and oxidative/methylated DNA damage in pregnant women, and 2) determine the association with birth outcomes. A birth cohort study of 299 pregnant mother-newborn pairs was recruited during 2001–2002 in Taiwan. We collected maternal urine samples during the 3rd trimester for measuring iAs and its metabolites. We used high-performance liquid chromatography/inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HPLC-ICP-MS) for quantifications of the arsenic species. Liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS) was used to measure the 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2′-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodG) and N7-methylguanosine (N7-MeG) DNA damage biomarkers. Birth outcomes were collected to assess the associations with maternal arsenic exposure and the DNA damage biomarkers. Multiple regression analyses showed that maternal urinary iAs had positive associations with the methylated N7-MeG (beta  = 0.35, p<0.001) and oxidative 8-oxodG (beta  = 0.24, p<0.001) DNA damage biomarkers, and a decreased one-minute (1-min) Apgar score (beta  = -0.23, p = 0.041). Maternal N7-MeG was also associated with a decreased 1-min Apgar score (beta  = −0.25, p = 0.042). Mutual adjustment for iAs and N7-MeG showed an independent and significant prediction for a decreased 1-min Apgar score of iAs (beta  = −0.28, p = 0.036). Maternal iAs exposure was associated with both maternal DNA damage and adverse newborn health. Maternal N7-MeG levels might be a novel biomarker for monitoring fetal health related to iAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a need for a panel of suitable biomarkers for detection of environmental chemical exposure leading to the initiation or progression of degenerative diseases or potentially, to cancer. As the peripheral blood may contain increased levels of circulating cell-free DNA in diseased individuals, we aimed to evaluate this DNA as effect biomarker recognizing vulnerability after exposure to environmental chemicals. We recruited 164 individuals presumably exposed to halo-alkane-based pesticides. Exposure evaluation was based on human biomonitoring analysis; as biomarker of exposure parent halo-methanes, -ethanes and their metabolites, as well as the hemoglobin-adducts methyl valine and hydroxyl ethyl valine in blood were used, complemented by expert evaluation of exposure and clinical intoxication symptoms as well as a questionnaire. Assessment showed exposures to halo alkanes in the concentration range being higher than non-cancer reference doses (RfD) but (mostly) lower than the occupational exposure limits. We quantified circulating DNA in serum from 86 individuals with confirmed exposure to off-gassing halo-alkane pesticides (in storage facilities or in home environment) and 30 non-exposed controls, and found that exposure was significantly associated with elevated serum levels of circulating mitochondrial DNA (in size of 79 bp, mtDNA-79, p = 0.0001). The decreased integrity of mtDNA (mtDNA-230/mtDNA-79) in exposed individuals implicates apoptotic processes (p = 0.015). The relative amounts of mtDNA-79 in serum were positively associated with the lag-time after intoxication to these chemicals (r = 0.99, p<0.0001). Several months of post-exposure the specificity of this biomarker increased from 30% to 97% in patients with intoxication symptoms. Our findings indicate that mitochondrial DNA has a potential to serve as a biomarker recognizing vulnerable risk groups after exposure to toxic/carcinogenic chemicals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Associations between socio-economic status (SES), personality and inflammation were examined to determine whether low SES subjects scoring high on neuroticism or hostility might suffer relatively higher levels of inflammation than affluent subjects. Methods: In a cross-sectional design, 666 subjects were recruited from areas of high (most deprived – “MD”) and low (least deprived – “LD”) deprivation. IL-6, ICAM-1, CRP and fibrinogen were measured along with demographic and health-behaviour variables, and personality traits of neuroticism, extraversion and psychoticism (hostility). Regression models assessed the prediction of inflammation as a function of personality, deprivation and their interaction. Results: Levels of CRP and IL-6 were an increasing function of neuroticism and extraversion only in LD subjects opposite trends were seen in MD subjects. The result was ascribed parsimoniously to an inflammatory ceiling effect or, more speculatively, to SES-related health-behaviour differences. Psychoticism was strongly associated with ICAM-1 in both MD and LD subjects. Conclusions: The association between neuroticism, CRP and IL-6 may be reduced in MD subjects confirming speculation that the association differs across population sub-groups. The association between psychoticism and ICAM-1 supports evidence that hostility has adverse effects upon the endothelium, with consequences for cardiovascular health. Health interventions may be more effective by accounting for personality-related effects upon biological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lab studies have suggested that ubiquitous phthalate exposures are related to obesity, but relevant epidemiological studies are scarce, especially for children. Objective: To investigate the association of phthalate exposures with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in Chinese school children. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in three primary and three middle schools randomly selected from Changning District of Shanghai City of China in 2011–2012. According to the physical examination data in October, 2011, 124 normal weight, 53 overweight, and 82 obese students 8–15 years of age were randomly chosen from these schools on the basis of BMI-based age- and sex-specific criterion. First morning urine was collected in January, 2012, and fourteen urine phthalate metabolites (free plus conjugated) were determined by ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Multiple linear regression was used to explore the associations between naturally log-transformed urine phthalate metabolites and BMI or WC. Results: The urine specific gravity-corrected concentrations of nine urine phthalate metabolites and five molar sums were positively associated with BMI or WC in Chinese school children after adjustment for age and sex. However, when other urine phthalate metabolites were included in the models together with age and sex as covariables, most of these significant associations disappeared except for mono (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) and monoethyl phthalate (MEP). Additionally, some associations showed sex- or age-specific differences. Conclusions: Some phthalate exposures were associated with BMI or WC in Chinese school children. Given the cross-sectional nature of this study and lack of some important obesity-related covariables, further studies are needed to confirm the associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]