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Recent events, including the floods in central Europe in May 2021, have highlighted how climate change is giving rise to scenarios that were neither foreseen nor predictable. One problem this poses is the need to rethink the logic of various environmental constraints that are often based on return times of 20-50 years or 100-200. A single event does not change the statistical expectations for the recurrence of the event itself, but the recurrence of several extraordinary events in a few years is a clear indication of a changing trend. The prevention of the effects of such events is based on the definition of the areas at greater or lesser risk specifically based on the return times of the exceptional events, so it is foreseeable that a series of territorial plans, mostly carried out a few decades ago, will have to be updated or re-executed from scratch. These reworkings will be able to take advantage of the opensource software and open spatial data that have become available in the meantime, facilitating the entire process, and making it more open and shareable. In this paper we tested on a real case (the May 1999 pyroclastic flows in Campania, southern Italy) the actual possibility of implementing a model for forecasting such events using only open-source software and open data. It has been demonstrated that the entire process can be carried out using only open-source resources and it has been verified that the predictions of the hazard and risk model obtained with only input data prior to the event, give an output prediction that is significantly coincident with the events that actually occurred as documented by the authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The waste crisis in Campania has inspired a vast amount of studies. Nevertheless, very little research has been done to explain the figures of waste generation and disposal in the region. The analyses carried out so far according to the indicators used by official statistics – i.e. Waste Generated, Waste Generated per capita and Separate Collection – fail to represent this hot spot case. This paper attempts to bridge this gap. Adopting the rationale of a new accounting system, the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM), two waste indicators are proposed to complement the conventional ones: the Metabolic Rate of Waste and the Density of Waste. Then a multi-scale analysis of the Density of Waste Disposed (DWD) tests its suitability to characterise Campania’s waste patterns. The data cover the period from 1999 to 2007. The results show that the DWD complements available indicators and further helps to explain the biophysical pressure and ecological unsustainability of the waste management in the region. The multi-scale analysis shows that regional data hide a relevant territorial diversity, emergent in the provincial analysis and even more so in the municipal one. These results have implications for governance and for the debate about mono-scale versus multi-scale solutions to waste management problems. Finally, the analysis allows some analytical generalisations on the suitability of the DWD to detect situations of potential waste crisis in other study-contexts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The present work is focused on investigating the potential role of capillary barriers on the stability of layered soil deposits laying upon high permeability steep slopes. In presence of capillary barrier effects, often possible on a soil stratigraphy characterized by contrasting hydraulic properties (pyroclastics deposit over pumices, silt upon fractured bedrock, silt over sand) failure might originate in less permeable layers, where unsaturated conditions might provide a crucial contribution to stability. Basic ideas and considerations have been drawn from a peculiar case study, the catastrophic landslide occurred in Campania, Southern Italy, on May 1998, which is discussed in this paper from a different perspective. The areal extent of failures’ distribution, their dense concentration at the steeper and higher slopes, the extremely high number of initial failures occurred within a relatively short time span suggest that the intimate cause of the event is related at some extent to the soil state characteristic parameters rather than positive pore pressure pulses from water circulation in coarser layers or groundwater level rising from bedrock and springs. A widespread loss of soil strength related to saturation can contribute to explain such phenomena. Capillary barrier effects favor accumulation and lateral distribution of percolating rainfall and possibly divert flowlines downslope, thus leading to localized increases in water content and loss of strength. Diversion of percolating waters facilitates lateral redistribution of soil moisture along the slope with possible further localized saturation, because more permeable layers may act temporarily as barriers and not as drains, as one could expect. Numerical 2-D infiltration models with parameters calibrated versus laboratory data show a relevant influence of capillary barrier effects on infiltration in layered slopes with vertically stratified variations of hydraulic properties and point out significant localized moisture accumulation with possible consequences on slope stability. Landslide initiation phenomena in layered covers might thus be conditioned by the increase in saturation within the least permeable soil layers due to capillary barrier phenomena. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]