Search

Copyright of Ingeniería Solidaria is the property of Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ingeniería Solidaria is the property of Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Climate variability has increased the frequency of disasters and affected the livelihood of the people to a greater extent. Therefore, livelihood vulnerability assessment assumes greater significance for understanding the interlinkages between climate variability induced disasters and livelihood pattern. In this paper, an attempt has been made to trace knowledge gaps, examine trends of research, and suggest future direction. We first collected 191 papers in the domain from Web of Science and Google scholar search engines from 1999 to 2019. Descriptive and thematic attributes of these papers were reviewed for identifying the missing links between climate variability and livelihood vulnerability and recommending future research action. Findings revealed that most of the studies were conducted at the local and regional level where the agricultural sector has taken dominance over other sectors. There is limited interdisciplinary coordination on the subject leading to limited cross‐scale interactions. Geographically, more studies were carried out in the plains. Future research should focus on mountains and coastal areas. Forest, aquaculture, and dairy farming should accord priority in such ecosystems. Empirical studies with an interdisciplinary approach need to be carried out for livelihood vulnerability assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite common background La Niña conditions, Australia was very dry in November 2020 and wet in November 2021. This paper aims to provide an explanation for this difference. Large-scale drivers of Australian rainfall, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Madden–Julian oscillation, were examined but did not provide obvious clues for the differences. We found that the absence (in 2020) or presence (in 2021) of an enhanced thermal wind and subtropical jet over the Australian continent contributed to the rainfall anomalies. In general, La Niña sets up warm sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, which enhances the meridional temperature gradient over the continent and hence thermal wind and subtropical jet. In November 2021, these warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with a persistent midlatitude trough, which advected cold air over the Australian continent, led to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient and subtropical jet over Australia. The enhanced jet provided favorable conditions for the development of rain-bearing weather systems across Australia. In 2020, the continent was warm, displacing the latitude of maximum meridional temperature gradient south of the continent, resulting in fewer instances of the subtropical jet over Australia, and little development of weather systems over the continent. We highlight that although La Niña tilts the odds to wetter conditions for Australia, in any given month, variability in temperatures over the continent can contribute to subtropical jet variability and resulting rainfall in ways which confound the normal expectation from La Niña. Significance Statement: Forecasts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are eagerly awaited, as the state of this climate driver has profound impacts on the likelihood of rainfall in regions around the world. While El Niño and La Niña do change rainfall likelihoods, the actual outcomes of these events are sometimes counter to expectation. This work explores one of the confounding factors to those expectations in the Australian context—the role of the meridional temperature gradient over the continent in modifying the storm track over Australia, which can disrupt the expected El Niño and La Niña teleconnections. We present case studies for two La Niña springs, highlighting that the Australian continent can help shape its own weather toward wetter or drier outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual fluctuations in average summertime temperatures across the western United States are captured by a leading empirical orthogonal function that explains over 50% of the total observed variance. In this paper, we explain the origins of this pattern of interannual temperature variability by examining soil moisture–temperature coupling that acts across seasons in observations and climate models. We find that a characteristic pattern of coupled temperature–soil moisture climate variability accounts for 34% of the total observed variance in summertime temperature across the region. This pattern is reproduced in state-of-the-art global climate models, where experiments that eliminate soil moisture variability reduce summertime average temperature variance by a factor of 3 on average. We use an idealized model of the coupled atmospheric boundary layer and underlying land surface to demonstrate that feedbacks between soil moisture, boundary layer relative humidity, and precipitation can explain the observed relations between springtime soil moisture and summertime temperature. Our results suggest that antecedent soil moisture conditions and subsequent land–atmosphere interactions play an important role in interannual summertime temperature variability in the western United States; soil moisture variations cause distal temperature anomalies and impart predictability at time scales longer than one season. Our results indicate that 40% of the observed warming trend across the western United States since 1981 has been driven by wintertime precipitation trends in the U.S. southwest. Significance Statement: Year-to-year fluctuations in summertime temperatures have a large impact on drought, wildfire, and extreme heat across the Western United States. We find strong evidence that soil moisture deficits in the preceding spring may be the primary driver of higher-than-average summer temperatures in this region. Our results suggest that memory in the water cycle may lead to greater predictability in the climate system from season to season and that trends in southwest precipitation have exerted a considerable influence on observed warming over the past 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has forced the world into a state of emergency, but the urgency can also become an opportunity to strengthen the focus on sustainable development and reduce social vulnerability. For developing economies, the first and foremost challenge regarding climate change is to address the knowledge gap on sustainable development and vulnerability. Besides this, evidence-based inputs are needed for the policies and programs that intend to enhance the adaptive capacity and social capital from the gender perspective in comparatively more disaster-prone districts of the country. The environmental impact in terms of socioeconomic conditions specifically pertaining to rural areas of Pakistan cannot be ignored. Natural events such as floods and droughts have raised the question of the social and socioeconomic vulnerability of the rural communities. This paper is an attempt toward understanding that everyone who is affected will be impacted differently by climate change both within the same gender and between different genders, including gender minorities. In addition, an attempt is made to identify the drivers of gender-disaggregated social vulnerability in selected disaster-prone rural communities of the district of Dadu, Sindh Province, Pakistan. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques are employed to examine the differences in gender perception on climate change, experiences related to climate change, disasters, and impacts on their lives. Women and households headed by them are found to be relatively more vulnerable due to their socioeconomic and social status in the rural areas of Pakistan. The paper gives policy directives that not only address the measures for reduction in climate change impacts but also suggest the development of effective disaster management programs, policies, and strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of dendrochronology for understanding climatic variations has been of great interest to climatologists, ecologists, geographers, archeologists, among other sciences, particularly in recent decades when more dendrochronological studies have been developed. We analyzed and identified the current state and recent advances in dendroclimatology in Latin America for the period 1990 to 2020. We carried out reviews in ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and Scopus databases with the keywords "dendrochronology", "dendroclimatology", "dendrochronology and climatic variability", "dendroclimatology and climatic variability", "dendrochronology and trend", and "dendroclimatology and trend" for each Latin American country. Results show that dendroclimatological research in the last 11 years has increased and has been mainly developed in temperate climate zones (83%) and tropical or subtropical areas (17%), where conifer species have been the most used with over 59% of the studies. However, broadleaf species for dendrochronological studies have also increased in the last decade. Dendroclimatological research in Latin America has provided important advances in the study of climatic variability by defining the response functions of tree-rings to climate and developing climatic reconstructions. Our research identified areas where it is necessary to increase dendroclimatic studies (e.g., dry and tropical forests), in addition to applying new techniques such as isotope analysis, blue intensity, dendrochemistry, among other tree-ring applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To examine the driver of groundwater depletion, this paper estimates a dynamic panel regression model using district-level secondary data from 1995 to 2017. Results show that the number of rainwater-harvesting structures, annual average rainfall, forest cover and net sown area improve groundwater levels. Tube well irrigation and rice cultivation can adversely affect groundwater levels. The positive relationship between surface water and improved groundwater level is consistent in all the estimated models. Hence, efficient use and management of surface and groundwater are crucial for the long-term sustainability of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan is among the countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced severe floods and droughts during recent decades. The agricultural sector in Pakistan is adversely affected by climate change. This systematic review paper set out to analyze the existing literature on adaptation measures at the farm level toward climate change in Pakistan. Adopting a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method, a total of 62 articles were identified from the Web of Science and Scopus databases. The review paper indicates that the main adaptation strategies adopted by farmers are as follows: changing cropping practices, changing farm management techniques, advanced land use management practices, and nonagriculture livelihood options. Further, this review shows the factors influencing the farmer's adaptation measures to climate change. Influencing factors were examined and classified into three groups: demographic, socioeconomic, and resources and institutional. Barriers hindering farmers' adaptive capacity were identified as lack of access to information and knowledge, lack of access to extension services, lack of access to credit facility, and lack of farm resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability poses great challenges to food security in West Africa, a region heavily dependent on rainfall for farming. Identifying sowing strategies that minimize yield losses for farmers in the region is crucial to securing their livelihood. In this paper, we investigate three sowing strategies to assess their ability to identify safe sowing windows for smallholder farmers in the Sudanian region of West Africa (WA) in the context of a changing climate. The GIS version of the FAO crop model, AquaCrop-GIS, is used to simulate the yield response of maize (Zea mays L.) to varying sowing dates throughout the rainy season across WA. Based on an average of 38 years of data per grid cell, we identify safe sowing windows across the Sudanian region that secure at least 90% of maximal yield. We find that current sowing strategies, based on minimum thresholds for rainfall accumulated over a period that are widely applied in the region, carry a higher risk of yield failure, especially at the beginning of the rainy season. This analysis shows that delaying sowing for a month to mid-June in the central region (east of Lon 8.5°W), and to early August in the semi-arid areas is a safer strategy that ensures optimal yields. A comparison between the periods 1982–1991 and 1992–2019 shows a negative shift for LO10 mm and LO20 mm, suggesting a wetter regime compared to the dry periods of the 1970s and 1980s. On the contrary, we observe a positive shift in the safe window strategy, highlighting the need for precautions due to erratic rainfall at the beginning of the season. The precipitation-based strategies hold a high risk, while the safe sowing window strategy, easily accessible to smallholder farmers, is more fitting, given the current climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dryland farming is at the center of increasing pressure to produce more food for the growing population in an environment that is highly variable and with high expectations for the standard of their production systems. While there is mounting pressure for increased productivity, the responsibility to protect the environment and diminish the agricultural sector's carbon footprint is receiving growing emphasis. Achieving these two goals calls for a consolidated effort to ensure that the scientific community and service providers partner with farmers to create a sustainable food production system that does not harm the environment. In this paper, we studied the nature of the services present in the market and identified ways that could be used to improve the climate services available to the agricultural sector. Important factors that could increase the usability of climate services include coproduction, context-specific information, innovation, demand-driven services, timeliness of services, highly applicable information, provision of services in the correct format, services that increase user experience, specificity of services to a locale, and services that are easily accessible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the new Regional Arctic Ocean/sea ice Reanalysis (RARE) with a domain that spans a subpolar/polar cap poleward of 45°N. Sequential data assimilation constrains temperature and salinity using World Ocean Database profiles as well as in situ and satellite SST, and PIOMAS sea ice thickness estimates. The 41-yr (1980–2020) RARE1.15.2 reanalysis with resolution varying between 2 and 5 km horizontally and 1–10 m vertically in the upper 100 m is examined. To explore the impact of resolution RARE1.15.2 is compared to a coarser-resolution SODA3.15.2, which uses the same modeling and data assimilation system. Improving resolution in the reanalysis system improves agreement with observations. It produces stronger more compact currents, enhances eddy kinetic energy, and strengthens along-isopycnal heat and salt transports, but reduces vertical exchanges and thus strengthens upper ocean haline stratification. RARE1.15.2 and SODA3.15.2 are also compared to the Hadley Center EN4.2.2 statistical objective analysis. In regions of reasonable data coverage such as the Nordic seas the three products produce similar time-mean distributions of temperature and salinity. But in regions of poor coverage and in regions where the coverage changes in time EN4.2.2 suffers more from those inhomogeneities. Finally, the impact on the Arctic of interannual temperature fluctuations in the subpolar gyres on the Arctic Ocean is compared. The influence of the subpolar North Pacific is limited to a region surrounding Bering Strait. The influence of the subpolar North Atlantic, in contrast, spreads throughout the Nordic seas and Barents Sea in all three products within two years. Significance Statement: The Arctic Ocean/sea ice system plays crucial roles in climate variability and change by controlling the northern end of the oceanic overturning circulation, the equator to pole air pressure gradient, and Earth's energy balance. Yet the historical ocean observation set is sparse and inhomogeneous, while ocean dynamics has challengingly fine horizontal and vertical scales. This paper introduces a new Regional Arctic Ocean/sea ice Reanalysis (RARE) whose goal is to use the combined constraints of mesoscale ocean dynamics, historical observations, surface meteorology, and continental runoff in a data assimilation framework to reconstruct historical variability. RARE is used to produce a 41-yr ocean/sea ice reanalysis 1980–2020 whose results are described here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regions near the Tropic of Cancer are a latitudinal geographical zone with typical climatic, topographic, and human landscape features. It is necessary to explore the region's net primary productivity (NPP) dynamics as it combines complex topography, various vegetation types, and intense human activities. The study sets the transect near the Tropic of Cancer (TCT) and uses the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford (CASA) model to estimate the NPP from 2000 to 2020. After using the RESTREND method, the paper calculates and compares the relative contributions of climate variability and anthropogenic activities to NPP changes. Finally, the geographical detector (Geodetector) model is applied to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural factors affect spatial distribution patterns and NPP changes. The results indicated that the average annual NPP is 820.39 gC·m−2·yr−1 during the 21 years. In addition, when the NPP varies, it increases over the entire study area, with a slope of 4.81 gC·m−2·yr−1, particularly in the western region. Across the entire research area, 63.39% and 77.44% of the total pixels positively contribute to climate variability and human activities in NPP, with a contribution of 0.90 and 3.91 gC·m−2·yr−1, respectively. Within the western, central, and eastern regions, anthropogenic activities have a stronger impact on NPP than climate variability, particularly pronounced in the eastern region. Furthermore, vegetation cover is the dominant factor in the spatial patterns and NPP trends across the TCT and the three regions. In contrast, climate factors are shown to be less influential in NPP distribution than in the western region. The results also demonstrated that the effect of population density and the GDP on NPP gradually rises. Two-factor interaction is much larger than any individual factor, with the dominant interaction factor being vegetation cover with climatic factors. Lastly, the findings revealed that anthropogenic activities positively promote NPP accumulation across the TCT, thus highlighting the importance of human activity-led ecological restoration and ecological protection measures that contribute to regional carbon sequestration and carbon balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether the effects of weather variability in temperature and precipitation on agricultural output are short- or long-run. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper attempts to establish whether temperature or precipitation variability affects agricultural output in the short or the long run. Second, it examined whether the effects of temperature or precipitation variability on agricultural output are homogenous across East African countries. The results reveal that variability in temperature had a long-run impact on agricultural output, while variability in precipitation had a short-run effect. The findings also reveal that the long-run temperature variability effect was heterogeneous across East African countries, and to some extent, there is also evidence for the long-run effect of precipitation variability. These results are crucial in providing decision-makers and other interested parties a thorough evaluation of climate impacts and adaptation measures aimed at increasing agricultural production and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a Bayesian clustering approach that allows quantification of the effect of climate variability on seasonal precipitation data in Kebir Rhumel Basin (KRB). We applied this approach to simultaneously identify clusters of stations with similar characteristics and the climate variability associated with each cluster and for the individual stations within each cluster. Both full pooling Bayesian clustering (FPBC) and partial pooling Bayesian clustering (PPBC) models with nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution are applied to each season. In these models, a climate index variable, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is included as a time-varying covariate with an appropriate basis function to potentially explain the temporal variation of one or more of the parameters of the distribution. Results reveal that the partial pooling Bayesian clustering model provided the best fit for the seasonal precipitation data. The significant effect of ENSO differs from one season to another. During spring and autumn, ENSO significantly affects precipitation across large parts of KRB. Furthermore, the southern part and northern part of KRB are positively and negatively influenced by ENSO during winter and summer, respectively. Moreover, almost all stations during spring and autumn are negatively and positively influenced by ENSO, respectively. Finally, we demonstrated that the proposed model helps to reduce the uncertainty in the parameter estimation and provides more robust results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Providing knowledge inputs to farmers is critical to reduce their vulnerability and enhance resilience against climate change. In developing countries such as India, where small holdings and rain-fed agriculture are predominant, knowledge inputs become even more critical. The India Meteorological Department has provided integrated agrometeorological advisory services (AAS) to farmers since 2008. In this paper, we estimate the scale of access to AAS and its impact on crop yields in 1000 households across 10 villages in two agroclimatic zones in India. We find evidence suggesting that access to AAS can have a significant impact on crop yields in the kharif (June–September) season, whereas other inputs are more important in the case of rabi (winter) crops. Specifically, the yields of pigeon pea, soybean, and pearl millet are higher by 233, 98, and 318 kg ha−1, respectively, for AAS beneficiaries. For the entire study area, this translates to a value addition of $9.66 million for these three crops in one season. Our results show that AAS can be an important contributor to meeting the developmental goals of enhancing food security in dry-land agriculture and building resilience against climate change. Significance Statement: In the era of climate change, with rapidly increasing weather and climatic variability, protecting the incomes of small farmers and ensuring they have the capacity to adapt and build resilience to the growing impacts of climate change is an urgent necessity. We have studied the impact of knowledge services such as the agrometeorological advisory services of the India Meteorological Department on crop yields for major crops in dry agroclimatic zones in India. The study shows that large public programs like the agrometeorological advisory services that bring science to people in meaningful ways can contribute significantly to meeting developmental goals and building resilience against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines precipitation associated with large-scale patterns of water vapor transport in the eastern United States. Daily 4 km gridded precipitation from PRISM (1981–2017) is sorted into a subset according to previously defined patterns of water vapor transport supplying the moisture on each day. These subsets are then analyzed to characterize the precipitation associated with each water vapor transport pattern. While each moisture transport pattern is associated with at least occasional precipitation, with seasonal variations, the highest precipitation averages are issued from near-coastal and coastal moisture transport patterns. Moisture transport patterns emanating from the Gulf of Mexico are associated with highest average precipitation inland. Each pattern has a spatially distinct contribution to annual and seasonal precipitation totals. The water vapor transport patterns of moderate intensity and moderate associated precipitation contribute the most to average annual precipitation. Most moisture transport patterns are associated with statistically significant increases in areas of very heavy precipitation (x ≥ 50 mm). By identifying which atmospheric moisture transport patterns are responsible for increasing areas of very heavy precipitation, and by characterizing the precipitation totals and contribution associated with each, this paper demonstrates the utility of examining precipitation variability through moisture transport patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A review of many studies published since the late 1920s reveals that the main driving mechanisms responsible for the early-twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) are not fully recognized. The main obstacle seems to be our limited knowledge about the climate of this period and some forcings. A deeper knowledge based on greater spatial and temporal resolution data is needed. The article provides new (or improved) knowledge about surface air temperature (SAT) conditions (including their extreme states) in the Arctic during the ETCAW. Daily and subdaily data have been used (mean daily air temperature, maximum and minimum daily temperature, and diurnal temperature range). These were taken from 10 individual years (selected from the period 1934–50) for six meteorological stations representing parts of five Arctic climatic regions. Standard SAT characteristics were analyzed (monthly, seasonal, and yearly means), as were rarely investigated aspects of SAT characteristics (e.g., number of characteristic days, day-to-day temperature variability, and the onset, end, and duration of thermal seasons). The results were compared with analogical calculations done for data taken from the contemporary Arctic warming (CAW) period (2007–16). The Arctic experienced warming between the ETCAW and the CAW. The magnitude of warming was greatest in the Pacific (2.7°C) and Canadian Arctic (1.9°C) regions. A shortening of winter and lengthening of summer were noted. Furthermore, the climate was also a little more continental (except the Russian Arctic) and less stable (greater day-to-day variability and diurnal temperature range) during the ETCAW than during the CAW. Significance Statement: It is well established that human activity (particularly increased greenhouse gas emissions) is the primary driving mechanism of the recent dramatic warming in the Arctic. However, the causes of a similar warming here in the first half of the twentieth century remain uncertain. The limited knowledge about the climate of that period—which mainly results from the low resolution of data—is a significant obstacle to a definitive determination of the forcing mechanisms. Therefore, the main aim of our paper is to improve our understanding of specific aspects of weather and climate (including extremes) using long-term series of daily and subdaily data that have rarely been applied for this purpose. This new, more comprehensive knowledge about the historical Arctic climate should allow the scientific community (particularly climate modelers) to better validate both climate models and reanalysis products and, consequently, to more precisely identify the causes of the early-twentieth-century Arctic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce an objective definition for the onset and the retreat of the northern Australian rainy season that overlaps significantly with the Australian monsoon season. We define onset and retreat dates of the northern Australian rainy season as being the first and the last day of the year when the daily rain rate exceeds and falls below the climatological annual mean rain rate, respectively. However, our definition of onset/demise is not as restrictive as the traditional monsoon season that seeks the arrival of the westerlies and the equatorward retreat of the trough at its onset and demise, respectively. As defined in this paper, the length of the rainy season is longer than the monsoon season and includes the pre- and post-monsoon rainfall. It is noted that an early or later onset date of the northern Australian rainy season is associated with a longer or shorter, wetter or drier, and colder or warmer season, respectively. Similar relationship is also observed with demise date variations, which are, however, weaker than the onset date variations. Furthermore, we find that the relationship of the northern Australian seasonal rainfall variations with ENSO variability becomes stronger when we account for variations in the length of the rainy season compared to the fixed (December-- February) monsoon season length. We also find a significant linear trend over the time period of the analysis from 1901 to 2015 toward an increasing length of the northern Australian rainy season that influences the corresponding rising trend of seasonal rainfall anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the role of hydrological changes and the societal decline of southern Africa's earliest state society, the Mapungubwe state (AD 1200-1300) in the Shashe-Limpopo basin. The rise and demise of Mapungubwe has long been linked to significant climate changes such as increased rainfall that would have supported intensive agro-pastoral activities and demographic growth, later declining due to the onset of drier conditions. Accordingly, during the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD), drier and cooler climate resulted in environmental deterioration, ultimately leading to the abandonment of Mapungubwe. This model is based on archaeological survey records and oral histories, with very limited regional climatic/environmental data. This paper presents three types of datasets: historical records; modern rainfall patterns, including field observations made from geoarchaeological records of soil sequences; and chemical analyses (Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectroscopy) to examine climate variability and social complexity in Iron Age southern Africa using historical ecology frameworks. The integrated analysis of these datasets indicates that hydrological changes in the Shashe-Limpopo basin are highly influenced by seasonal variability and distribution of rainfall. The proposed alternating periods of high and low rainfall in the present study suggests the potential for flooding episodes of differing severity, while geoarchaeological data indicate an active landscape with alternating sequences of profile development and soil disturbance. Therefore, environmental deterioration cannot simply be avoided by migration. In fact, where heavy rains in the catchment area cause flooding, they also bring both moisture and deposit rich silt, valuable for the growth of vegetation and crops. Instead, the argument put forward is that many aspects, both cultural and environmental factors, influenced societal decline in the Shashe- Limpopo basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the downscaling of an ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 12-km grid spacing over the period 1970–2099, examining the mesoscale impacts of global warming as well as the uncertainties in its mesoscale expression. The RCP8.5 emissions scenario was used to drive both global and regional climate models. The regional climate modeling system reduced bias and improved realism for a historical period, in contrast to substantial errors for the GCM simulations driven by lack of resolution. The regional climate ensemble indicated several mesoscale responses to global warming that were not apparent in the global model simulations, such as enhanced continental interior warming during both winter and summer as well as increasing winter precipitation trends over the windward slopes of regional terrain, with declining trends to the lee of major barriers. During summer there is general drying, except to the east of the Cascades. The 1 April snowpack declines are large over the lower-to-middle slopes of regional terrain, with small snowpack increases over the lower elevations of the interior. Snow-albedo feedbacks are very different between GCM and RCM projections, with the GCMs producing large, unphysical areas of snowpack loss and enhanced warming. Daily average winds change little under global warming, but maximum easterly winds decline modestly, driven by a preferential sea level pressure decline over the continental interior. Although temperatures warm continuously over the domain after approximately 2010, with slight acceleration over time, occurrences of temperature extremes increase rapidly during the second half of the twenty-first century. Significance Statement: This paper provides a unique high-resolution view of projected climate change over the Pacific Northwest and does so using an ensemble of regional climate models, affording a look at the uncertainties in local impacts of global warming. The paper examines regional meteorological processes influenced by global warming and provides guidance for adaptation and preparation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been several incidences of flood recently, which are believed to be aggravated by increased climatic variables as a result of perceived changes in climatic conditions (due to climate change) in the Cross River Basin. The basin is the most extensively developed and used river basin in the management of the water resources of the Cross River and Akwa Ibom States in Nigeria. In this paper, 30 years (from 1992 to 2021) of hydro-meteorological data (annual average rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, hu midity, duration of sunlight (sunshine hours), evaporation, wind speed, soil temperature, cloud cover, solar radiation, and atmospheric pressure) from four stations in the Cross River Basin were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Abuja and subjected to trend detection analysis using the Mann–Kendall test to determine the trend in climatic parameters. The results indicate that there is a significant upward trend in annual rainfall in Ogoja but a downward trend in Calabar. The evaporation trend is significantly downward in Eket, whereas in Calabar, there is an upward trend in solar radiation. Generally, there is a significant rise in annual maximum temperature across the basin. Serial correlation and segmented regression analyses were performed to measure the impact of fluctuations in monthly and long-term Tahiti and Darwin's Sea level pressures on the climatic variables at the Cross River Basin catchment. These analyses were necessary to determine the extent of the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation climatic cycle. The analyses show no significant association between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rainfall or between the ENSO and runoff in the catchment. This implies that the impact of the ENSO on rainfall and runoff in the Cross River Basin catchment is not considerable. The intercepts derived from the segmented regression in Eket and Ogoja show significant positive trends in both areas for rainfall and runoff. The trends in intercepts suggest that there are external factors influencing rainfall and runoff other than ENSO events, thus strengthening the assertion of climate change. Results from this study will facilitate the understanding of the variability in climatic parameters by stakeholders in the basin, researchers, policymakers, and water resource managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent work indicates that the changing variability, that is, the amplitude and the temporal autocorrelation of deviations from the mean, may have greater and more imminent impact on ecosystems. In this paper, we demonstrate that changes in climate variability alone could drive cyclic predator–prey ecosystems to extinction via so‐called phase‐tipping (P‐tipping), a new type of instability that occurs only from certain phases of the predator–prey cycle. We construct a mathematical model of a variable climate and couple it to two self‐oscillating paradigmatic predator–prey models. Most importantly, we combine realistic parameter values for the Canada lynx and snowshoe hare with actual climate data from the boreal forest. In this way, we demonstrate that critically important species in the boreal forest have increased likelihood of P‐tipping to extinction under predicted changes in climate variability, and are most vulnerable during stages of the cycle when the predator population is near its maximum. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stochastic resonance is the underlying mechanism for the increased likelihood of P‐tipping to extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability induced increased frequency of disasters has affected the livelihood of the people especially in developing countries. Rural communities are more affected and vulnerable towards these events due to limited livelihood alternatives. The exponentially increasing population, unsustainable use of natural resources and increasing disparities in social structure have posed threats to rural livelihoods. Climate variability and change have adversely affected agriculture and allied activities but more so in mountainous regions where the agriculture is still primarily rain-fed and is practised by smallholder farmers. Thus, livelihood vulnerability assessment is essential for suggesting suitable adaptation strategies and making policy decisions. This paper makes an attempt to examine livelihood vulnerability using composite vulnerability index. Evidence is given from blocks (administrative divisions of the district) of Dimapur district of Nagaland in India. We constructed livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) by incorporating site-specific indicators for its three components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). The results revealed that all the blocks were greatly affected by climate variability and its induced drought. Niuland block was found the most vulnerable block followed by Kuhuboto, Dhansiripar and Medziphema blocks. Livelihood vulnerability in Niuland, Kuhuboto and Dhansiripar blocks is attributed to high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. Sensitivity has predominantly increased livelihood vulnerability in Medziphema block. Thus, the study calls for policy implications to reduce the extent of livelihood vulnerability. LVI as a policy tool has proved to be effective in livelihood vulnerability assessment. Hence, it can successfully be utilised in other geographical regions for policy interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine how surface runoff affects public safety and urban infrastructure worldwide and how human activity has significantly altered the frequency and magnitude of these events. We investigate this issue in Ferson Creek, IL, USA. Our study focuses on three specific areas of impact: (1) the primary reasons for a considerable increase in average runoff peaks, using annual maximum runoff discharge and annual maximum precipitation and temperature to evaluate the role of climate variability; (2) the effect of land use change on runoff peaks by coupling dominant land use categories with annual maximum runoff discharge; and (3) the use of return level plots as a reference to explore the watershed's sensitivity to land use change. Our findings indicate that land use change has a greater effect on runoff peak values than climate variability in our region of interest. The agricultural areas of Ferson Creek have been most affected by the rapid transformation of about 20% of their land into developed areas. Although agricultural areas can sometimes intensify runoff peaks, their reduction has led to excessive runoff discharges in Ferson Creek, as they have higher relative infiltration capacity than developed areas. We conclude that each watershed has its own fingerprint in terms of the connection between its land use types and hydrological patterns and that the region is most sensitive to the percentage of forests. These results are essential for improving infrastructure design and risk estimation methods in the region of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multilevel approach to climate change adaptation (CCA) is essential in addressing the impacts of climate change. This form of cooperation accommodates various sectors in bringing together all interested stakeholders to work on pressing issues in communities. This article sought to establish the role of a multilevel approach to CCA in Zimbabwe and its subsequent flaws. The study employed a qualitative method and an exploratory design. Purposive sampling was employed to select research participants from the villages in the district. In-depth interviews were adopted and data were analysed using the thematic content analysis. The study established four levels of CCA, namely community, local government, NGOs and national government. The four levels are deemed to provide a well-crafted framework to CCA, though there are various challenges and setbacks that hinder its effective execution. The paper recommended the dire need for agricultural diversification schemes and strategies that are meant to promote agricultural diversification in the form of provision of agricultural inputs and appropriate skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial distribution of summer rainfall anomalies over eastern China often shows a tripole pattern with rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River basin varies in opposite phase with North China and South China. It is not clear whether this tripole pattern is an intrinsic atmospheric mode or it is remotely forced. Using two sets of model outputs from 20 models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this paper investigates the driving mechanisms of this leading rainfall mode and its major influencing factors. One set (piControl) is fully coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations under constant preindustrial forcing and the other (sstClim) is atmosphere-alone models forced by prescribed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs). By comparing results from these two different sets of simulations, it is found that the tripole pattern is the leading mode of summer precipitation variability over eastern China with or without oceanic forcing. It can be regarded as an intrinsic atmospheric mode although air–sea interaction can modify its temporal variability. The cyclonic–anticyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly over the northern North Pacific is identified as a key factor in both experiments. As atmospheric internal variability, it is related to a circumglobal zonal wave train propagating along the westerly jet stream. When air–sea interactions involved, modulation from SST anomalies is exerted through the meridional Pacific–Japan/East Asia–Pacific wave train propagating along the East Asian coast. Our results suggest that the North Pacific could be another key region providing potential predictability to the East Asian monsoon in addition to the Indo-Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]