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711 results on '"Dobson, Andrew"'

1. Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Author

Borlase, Anna, Brady, Oliver, Browning, Raiha, Chitnis, Nakul, Coffeng, Luc, Crowley, Emily, Cucunubá, Zulma, Cummings, Derek, Davis, Christopher, Davis, Emma, Dixon, Matthew, Dobson, Andrew, Dyson, Louise, French, Michael, Fronterre, Claudio, Giorgi, Emanuele, Huang, Ching-I, Jain, Saurabh, James, Ananthu, Kim, Sung, Kura, Klodeta, Lucianez, Ana, Marks, Michael, Mbabazi, Pamela, Medley, Graham, Michael, Edwin, Montresor, Antonio, Mutono, Nyamai, Mwangi, Thumbi, Rock, Kat, Saboyá-Díaz, Martha-Idalí, Sasanami, Misaki, Schwehm, Markus, Spencer, Simon, Srivathsan, Ariktha, Stawski, Robert, Stolk, Wilma, Sutherland, Samuel, Tchuenté, Louis-Albert, de Vlas, Sake, Walker, Martin, Brooker, Simon, Hollingsworth, T, Solomon, Anthony, Fall, Ibrahima, Vasconcelos, Andreia, King, Jonathan, Nunes-Alves, Cláudio, Anderson, Roy, Argaw, Daniel, Basáñez, Maria-Gloria, Bilal, Shakir, Blok, David, and Blumberg, Seth

Subjects
control, elimination, mathematical models, neglected tropical diseases, policy-making, Neglected Diseases, Humans, Tropical Medicine, COVID-19, Models, Theoretical, World Health Organization, SARS-CoV-2, Decision Making, Global Health
Abstract

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Published
2024

4. Association of Environmental Factors with Seasonal Intensity of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae Seropositivity among Arctic Caribou

Author

Aleuy, O. Alejandro, Anholt, Michele, Orsel, Karin, Mavrot, Fabien, Gagnon, Catherine A., Beckmen, Kimberlee, Cote, Steeve D., Cuyler, Christine, Dobson, Andrew, Elkin, Brett, Leclerc, Lisa-Marie, Taillon, Joelle, and Kutz, Susan

Subjects
Reindeer -- Diseases -- Environmental aspects, Caribou -- Diseases -- Environmental aspects, Mycoplasmatales -- Identification and classification -- Environmental aspects, Emerging communicable diseases -- Risk factors -- Environmental aspects, Health
Abstract

A 2021 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1) reinforced that anthropogenic influences on climate systems are causing increases in temperature and extremes of weather and climate events [...]

Published
2022
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6. Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win–win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

Author

Hopkins, Skylar R, Lafferty, Kevin D, Wood, Chelsea L, Olson, Sarah H, Buck, Julia C, De Leo, Giulio A, Fiorella, Kathryn J, Fornberg, Johanna L, Garchitorena, Andres, Jones, Isabel J, Kuris, Armand M, Kwong, Laura H, LeBoa, Christopher, Leon, Ariel E, Lund, Andrea J, MacDonald, Andrew J, Metz, Daniel C G, Nova, Nicole, Peel, Alison J, Remais, Justin V, Stewart Merrill, Tara E, Wilson, Maya, Bonds, Matthew H, Dobson, Andrew P, Lopez Carr, David, Howard, Meghan E, Mandle, Lisa, and Sokolow, Susanne H

Published
2022
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9. The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.

Author

Rock, Kat S, Chapman, Lloyd A C, Dobson, Andrew P, Adams, Emily R, and Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Subjects
TRYPANOSOMIASIS prevention, TROPICAL medicine, INFECTION control, HUMAN anatomical models, RESEARCH funding, DISEASE vectors, SYMPTOMS, TREATMENT effectiveness, UNCERTAINTY, MICE, NEGLECTED diseases, ANIMAL experimentation, EPIDEMICS, MATHEMATICAL models, MEDICAL screening, THEORY, TRYPANOSOMIASIS, LEISHMANIASIS, DISEASE incidence, EPIDEMIOLOGY
Abstract

Background Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. Methods We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. Results We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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10. A solution scan of societal options to reduce transmission and spread of respiratory viruses: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study

Author

Sutherland, William J., Taylor, Nigel G., Aldridge, David C., Martin, Philip, Rhodes, Catherine, Shackelford, Gorm, Beard, Simon, Belfield, Haydn, Bladon, Andrew J., Brick, Cameron, Christie, Alec P., Dobson, Andrew P., Downey, Harriet, Hood, Amelia S.C., Hua, Fangyuan, Hughes, Alice C., Jarvis, Rebecca M., MacFarlane, Douglas, Morgan, William H., Mupepele, Anne-Christine, Marciniak, Stefan J., Nelson, Cassidy, Ó hÉigeartaigh, Seán, Rios Rojas, Clarissa, Sainsbury, Katherine A., Smith, Rebecca K., Sundaram, Lalitha S., Thornton, Ann, Watkins, John, White, Thomas B., Willott, Kate, and Petrovan, Silviu O.

Published
2021
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14. Lyme disease ecology in a changing world: consensus, uncertainty and critical gaps for improving control

Author

Kilpatrick, A Marm, Dobson, Andrew DM, Levi, Taal, Salkeld, Daniel J, Swei, Andrea, Ginsberg, Howard S, Kjemtrup, Anne, Padgett, Kerry A, Jensen, Per M, Fish, Durland, Ogden, Nick H, and Diuk-Wasser, Maria A

Subjects
Vector-Borne Diseases, Infectious Diseases, Prevention, Lyme Disease, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Infection, Good Health and Well Being, Animals, Borrelia burgdorferi, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Incidence, Ixodes, Risk, epidemiology, emerging infectious disease, dilution effect, Biological Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, Evolutionary Biology
Abstract

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in temperate regions of North America, Europe and Asia, and the number of reported cases has increased in many regions as landscapes have been altered. Although there has been extensive work on the ecology and epidemiology of this disease in both Europe and North America, substantial uncertainty exists about fundamental aspects that determine spatial and temporal variation in both disease risk and human incidence, which hamper effective and efficient prevention and control. Here we describe areas of consensus that can be built on, identify areas of uncertainty and outline research needed to fill these gaps to facilitate predictive models of disease risk and the development of novel disease control strategies. Key areas of uncertainty include: (i) the precise influence of deer abundance on tick abundance, (ii) how tick populations are regulated, (iii) assembly of host communities and tick-feeding patterns across different habitats, (iv) reservoir competence of host species, and (v) pathogenicity for humans of different genotypes of Borrelia burgdorferi Filling these knowledge gaps will improve Lyme disease prevention and control and provide general insights into the drivers and dynamics of this emblematic multi-host-vector-borne zoonotic disease.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Published
2017

15. Transformational Principles for NEON Sampling of Mammalian Parasites and Pathogens: A Response to Springer and Colleagues

Author

Cook, Joseph A, Greiman, Stephen E, Agosta, Salvatore J, Anderson, Robert P, Arbogast, Brian S, Baker, Robert J, Boeger, Walter, Bradley, Robert D, Brooks, Daniel R, Cole, Rebecca, Demboski, John R, Dobson, Andrew P, Dunnum, Jonathan L, Eckerlin, Ralph P, Esselstyn, Jacob, Galbreath, Kurt E, Hawdon, John, Hoekstra, Hopi E, Kutz, Susan J, Light, Jessica E, Olson, Link E, Patterson, Bruce D, Patton, James L, Phillips, Anna J, Rickart, Eric, Rogers, Duke S, Siddall, Mark E, Tkach, Vasyl V, and Hoberg, Eric P

Subjects
Environmental Sciences, Biological Sciences, Ecology
Published
2016

17. Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system

Author

Behdenna, Abdelkader, Lembo, Tiziana, Calatayud, Olga, Cleaveland, Sarah, Halliday, Jo E. B., Packer, Craig, Lankester, Felix, Hampson, Katie, Craft, Meggan E., Czupryna, Anna, Dobson, Andrew P., Dubovi, Edward J., Ernest, Eblate, Fyumagwa, Robert, Hopcraft, J. Grant C., Mentzel, Christine, Mzimbiri, Imam, Sutton, David, Willett, Brian, Haydon, Daniel T., and Viana, Mafalda

Published
2019

20. Eight challenges in modelling disease ecology in multi-host, multi-agent systems

Author

Buhnerkempe, Michael G, Roberts, Mick G, Dobson, Andrew P, Heesterbeek, Hans, Hudson, Peter J, and Lloyd-Smith, James O

Subjects
Aetiology, 2.1 Biological and endogenous factors, Infection, Good Health and Well Being, Communicable Diseases, Ecology, Food Chain, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Humans, Life Cycle Stages, Models, Statistical, Population Dynamics, Multiple hosts, Multiple pathogens, Community ecology, Maintenance, Food webs, Clinical Sciences, Public Health and Health Services
Abstract

Many disease systems exhibit complexities not captured by current theoretical and empirical work. In particular, systems with multiple host species and multiple infectious agents (i.e., multi-host, multi-agent systems) require novel methods to extend the wealth of knowledge acquired studying primarily single-host, single-agent systems. We outline eight challenges in multi-host, multi-agent systems that could substantively increase our knowledge of the drivers and broader ecosystem effects of infectious disease dynamics.

Published
2015

21. Crossing the interspecies barrier: opening the door to zoonotic pathogens.

Author

Gortazar, Christian, Reperant, Leslie A, Kuiken, Thijs, de la Fuente, José, Boadella, Mariana, Martínez-Lopez, Beatriz, Ruiz-Fons, Francisco, Estrada-Peña, Agustin, Drosten, Christian, Medley, Graham, Ostfeld, Richard, Peterson, Townsend, VerCauteren, Kurt C, Menge, Christian, Artois, Marc, Schultsz, Constance, Delahay, Richard, Serra-Cobo, Jordi, Poulin, Robert, Keck, Frederic, Aguirre, A Alonso, Henttonen, Heikki, Dobson, Andrew P, Kutz, Susan, Lubroth, Juan, and Mysterud, Atle

Subjects
Animals, Humans, Zoonoses, Risk Assessment, Disease Reservoirs, Disease Vectors, Health Transition, Models, Biological, Urbanization, Animal Husbandry, Climate Change, Host Specificity, Global Health, Virology, Microbiology, Immunology, Medical Microbiology
Published
2014

23. Ivory crisis : Growing no-trade consensus

Author

Sills, Jennifer, Sekar, Nitin, Clark, William, Dobson, Andrew, Coelho, Paula Cristina Francisco, Hannam, Phillip M., Hepworth, Robert, Hsiang, Solomon, Kahumbu, Paula, Lee, Phyllis C., Lindsay, Keith, Pereira, Carlos Lopes, Wasser, Samuel K., and Nowak, Katarzyna

Published
2018

25. Pneumonia in Bighorn Sheep : Risk and Resilience

Author

CASSIRER, E. FRANCES, MANLOVE, KEZIA R., ALMBERG, EMILY S., KAMATH, PAULINE L., COX, MIKE, WOLFF, PEREGRINE, ROUG, ANNETTE, SHANNON, JUSTIN, ROBINSON, RUSTY, HARRIS, RICHARD B., GONZALES, BEN J., PLOWRIGHT, RAINA K., HUDSON, PETER J., CROSS, PAUL C., DOBSON, ANDREW, and BESSER, THOMAS E.

Published
2018

26. Valuing water for sustainable development

Author

Garrick, Dustin E., Hall, Jim W., Dobson, Andrew, Damania, Richard, Grafton, R. Quentin, Hope, Robert, Hepburn, Cameron, Bark, Rosalind, Boltz, Frederick, De Stefano, Lucia, O’Donnell, Erin, Matthews, Nathanial, and Money, Alex

Published
2017

28. Ecological Science and Sustainability for the 21st Century

Author

Palmer, Margaret A., Bernhardt, Emily S., Chornesky, Elizabeth A., Collins, Scott L., Dobson, Andrew P., Duke, Clifford S., Gold, Barry D., Jacobson, Robert B., Kingsland, Sharon E., Kranz, Rhonda H., Mappin, Michael J., Martinez, M. Luisa, Micheli, Fiorenza, Morse, Jennifer L., Pace, Michael L., Pascual, Mercedes, Palumbi, Stephen S., Reichman, O. J., Townsend, Alan R., and Turner, Monica G.

Published
2005
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35. Human Health Effects of a Changing Global Nitrogen Cycle

Author

Townsend, Alan R., Howarth, Robert W., Bazzaz, Fakhri A., Booth, Mary S., Cleveland, Cory C., Collinge, Sharon K., Dobson, Andrew P., Epstein, Paul R., Holland, Elisabeth A., Keeney, Dennis R., Mallin, Michael A., Rogers, Christine A., Wayne, Peter, and Wolfe, Amir H.

Published
2003
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43. From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease.

Author

Ledien, Julia, Cucunubá, Zulma M., Parra-Henao, Gabriel, Rodríguez-Monguí, Eliana, Dobson, Andrew P., Adamo, Susana B., Castellanos, Luis Gerardo, Basáñez, María-Gloria, and Nouvellet, Pierre

Subjects
CHAGAS' disease, NEGLECTED diseases
Abstract

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021–2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000–648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8–1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900–3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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