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This paper presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting hydro–meteorological changes in a marine area, i.e., in large bodies of water, from open water to coastal zones. First, hydro–meteorological factors, their interactions, and their implications for marine ecosystems are described. In addition, an analysis is outlined specifically for the Baltic Sea area. Next, the procedure for forecasting expected changes in major hydro–meteorological parameters in the sea is presented and a series of steps is accurately described. An extensive prognosis is provided for the southern Baltic Sea region using historical data obtained from the Polish National Institute of Water Management and Meteorology. The procedure is applied for seven measurement points which were assigned to four sub-areas for examining trends in wind regimes and wave height patterns using the authors' own written software and statistical methods for data analysis. The model was validated within the southern Baltic Sea region. This paper also highlights the significance of forecasting for human beings, the environment, and critical infrastructure by proposing adaptive strategies and integrated coastal zone management in mitigating risks and enhancing resilience. Finally, future directions for research are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an original approach to predicting oil slick movement and dispersion at the water surface. Special emphasis is placed on the impact of evolving hydro-meteorological conditions and the thickness of the oil spill layer. The main gap addressed by this study lies in the need for a comprehensive understanding of how changing environmental conditions and oil thickness interact to influence the movement and dispersion of oil slicks. By focusing on this aspect, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of oil spill behaviour, enhancing the ability to predict and mitigate the environmental impacts of such incidents. Self-designed software was applied to develop and modify previously established mathematical probabilistic models for predicting changes in the shape of the oil trajectory. First, a semi-Markov model of the process is constructed, and the oil thickness is analysed at the sea surface over time. Next, a stochastic-based procedure to forecast the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick in diverse hydro-meteorological conditions considering a varying oil layer thickness is presented. This involves determining the trajectory and movement of a slick domain, which consists of an elliptical combination of domains undergoing temporal changes. By applying the procedure and program, a short-term forecast of the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick provided its trajectory at the Bornholm Basin of the Baltic Sea within two days. The research results obtained are preliminary prediction results, although the approach considered in this paper can help responders understand the scope of the problem and mitigate the effects of environmental damage if the oil discharge reaches sensitive ecosystems. Finally, further perspectives of this research are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ice service at the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency and its predecessors has been committed to the safety and easiness of ship navigation for more than 100 years. Within this paper, an overview of the operational products issued by the German ice service on a daily to weekly basis throughout the northern hemisphere winter season is given. These comprise written reports, ice charts, NAVTEX messages, and messages via the Global Telecommunication System to inform about the sea ice situation in German coastal waters, the Baltic Sea, and worldwide. Furthermore, the ice service has systematically collected ice observation data along the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coast since the winter of 1896/1897. The history of the German ice service is presented to put the sea ice data into context of the observation technologies used in the course of the existence of the ice service. These long-term observations enable climatological analyses of the sea ice cover in German coastal waters necessary for the safe operation of offshore infrastructure. An evaluation of the data shows a recent decline in sea ice occurrence in the Baltic Sea and German Bight. Current work is ongoing to preserve more of the historic data in digital form and also to transform the products to conform to modern standards in digital technologies and interactive solutions for the customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sandy beaches high in recreation value make up 16% of the over 4000 km long shoreline of Estonia. The shore processes associated with climate change have remarkably accelerated over recent decades. Many sandy shores have suffered from strong erosion, including an excellent former beach at Valgeranna. The jetties, which were built in the 1860s to protect the navigation channel of Port Pärnu from clogging, have prevented natural sediment transport along the coast from south to north. At the same time, the sandy beach in Pärnu is expanding, and part of the sand accumulates with strong storms also in between the jetties, reducing the width of the shipping channel. The channel needs regular dredging, but, so far, the dredged sediment has been taken far away to the open sea and accumulated on the seabed. The current paper addresses the possibilities of using that sand for beach restoration in destructed and eroded areas. An overview of the applied methods and measurements during field studies is given. The results of modelling the processes of wave activity and sediment transport are discussed. The recycling of shore sediments is an important measure in sustainable coastal zone management. Different options and scenarios are analysed in order to find the most reasonable ways to bring sand back onto beaches and stabilize natural processes. Support from the state by working out respective laws and regulations would be motivating as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper systematically reviews the literature on how to reduce nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea cost-effectively and considerations for allocating these costs fairly among countries. The literature shows conclusively that the reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) could be achieved at considerably lower cost, if countries would cooperate to implement the least costly abatement plan. Focusing on phosphorus abatement could be prudent as the often recommended measures—wastewater treatment and wetlands—abate nitrogen too. An implication of our review is that the potential for restoring the Baltic Sea to good health is undermined by an abatement strategy that is more costly than necessary and likely to be perceived as unfair by several countries. Neither the BSAP nor the cost-effective solution meet the surveyed criteria for fairness, implying a need for side-payments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper presents the results of dietary stable isotope analyses performed on Migration Period (450–550 AD) and Pre-Viking Age (550–800 AD) populations of Lepna and Viidumäe, Saaremaa Island, Estonia. To date, research on dietary stable isotope analysis in Estonia has mainly focused on populations from other historical periods with an exclusion of material from the fifth to ninth centuries AD. Moreover, the research has been mainly conducted on populations from mainland Estonia, with three Stone Age groups from Saaremaa Island previously studied. The results of this paper suggest that the individuals buried at Lepna and Viidumäe had a diet of mainly terrestrial resources with minimal input from fresh- or brackish-water fish and marine resources. These results are supported by previous zooarchaeological material from Saaremaa, as well as additional analysis of the animal bones found in the Lepna grave. Although the dietary isotope values of Lepna and Viidumäe are similar to previous Estonian data from the Bronze Age (1750–500 BC) up to the Medieval Period (1225–1550 AD), the isotope values of these two populations show variations from the data collected from Iron Age sites in Latvia, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland thus far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses how Sweden has adapted to the worsened security situation in its vicinity following Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea and war in Eastern Ukraine. The paper builds on security policy research focused on neoclassic realism and small state strategies in order to explore how the, broadly unknown, security policy from 2009 has been implemented in practice since 2014, through what observers call the "Hultqvist doctrine." The aim is to bring clarity to how the Hultqvist doctrine best can be understood - as a non-aligned or an integration policy? - and how the strategy relates to both systemic forces and domestic circumstances. The paper addresses the puzzle posed by structural realism, that the systemic forces would work to encourage Sweden to align in face of the threat that emerged in 2014. Still, Sweden has resisted NATO membership. To this end, I construct and apply an analytical framework that not only reveals the degree of novelty in the doctrine, but also allows for an evaluation of integration in three dimensions - openness, inclusiveness and comprehensiveness - in combination with a screening dimension. Following neoclassical realism, the study furthermore identifies domestic conditions that hinder policy flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies have been made of the specific importance of waterfowl as food in the Baltic Sea during the late medieval and early modern period. This study shows the seasonal importance of water birds to island and coastal inhabitants living in the middle of the Baltic Sea during the late medieval and early modern periods (ca. CE 1400–1700) and practical implementations for interpretation of cut and chop marks. The paper is based on a bird bone assemblage retrieved from a remote ecclesial site on the island group of Kökar, which is part of the Åland Islands, as well as historical documents and local specialist knowledge. The site was established by Franciscan friars somewhere in the mid‐15th century. Documents indicate that the friars had landownership, income from taxing nearby fisheries, and the right to seal tithe. These assets were taken over by the crown in the mid‐16th century due to the Reformation and a parish church was established on the same site after the friary was dissolved. The bone assemblages from the site include birds, mammals, and fish. The material shows a relatively small number of chicken bones in relation to waterfowl, allowing one to look closer into the structural food economy around water birds for the area. The bones also show several cut and chop marks, which have been analyzed to explore the possible processing of these birds. The results show that fowling was concentrated to a couple of species most likely during spring when these species were abundant. The placement of the cut and chop marks indicates that a large number of birds were likely processed at the same time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with an important issue related to the identification, modelling, and prediction of environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems of the Baltic Sea caused by anthropopressure. Water ecosystems are in danger nowadays because of the negative influence of chemical releases in seas, oceans, or inland waters. The crucial issue is to prevent the oil spills and mitigate their consequences. Thus, there is a need for methods capable of reducing the water pollution and enhancing the effectiveness of port and marine environment preservation. The challenge in implementing actions to remove and prevent horizontal oil discharge lies in accurately determining its shape and direction of oil spreading. The author employed a self-designed software utilizing modified and developed mathematical probabilistic models to forecast the movement and dispersion of an oil spill in diverse hydrological and meteorological conditions. This involved determining the trajectory and movement of a spill domain, which consists of elliptical sub-domains undergoing temporal changes. The research results obtained are the initial results in the oil spill simulation problem. This approach represents an expanded and innovative method for determining the spill domain and tracking its movement, applicable to oceans and seas worldwide. It expands upon the methodologies firstly discussed, thereby broadening the range of available techniques in this field. A simple model of an oil spill trajectory simulation and a surface oil slick as an ellipse is illustrated using a time-series of selected hydro-meteorological factors that change at random times. The author proposes a Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the extent of an oil spill in an aquatic ecosystem, taking into account the influence of varying hydro-meteorological conditions. A semi-Markov model is defined to capture the dynamics of these conditions within the spill area and develop an enhanced algorithm for predicting changes in the shape and movement of the spill domain under changing these conditions. By applying the algorithm, a simulation is conducted to provide short-term prediction of the oil discharge trajectory in a selected Baltic Sea waterway. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the process of changing conditions, uniformly tested joint datasets from the open sea water area were incorporated. Finally, the potential future prospects and directions for further research in this field are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though the Baltic Sea countries have displayed substantial reform-facilitated growth and trading activity over the last decade, significant trade barriers still exist. We analyse their implications, using a CGEmodel. Besides the "usual suspects" (tariffs, subsidies, and service barriers) and trade facilitation, we address non-tariff-measures (NTM) in a separate scenario. We find that reforms would substantially boost national income and trade, especially for the group of emerging economies. Income gains are primarily due to elimination of dead-weight losses caused by rules and regulations and improved resource allocation. Jointly, the simulations indicate a move towards services and industrial production and exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of the Baltic Sea non-tidal loading in the territory of Latvia using observations of the GNSS continuously operating reference stations (CORS) of LatPos, EUPOS®-Riga, EPN and EstPos networks. The GNSS station daily coordinate time series obtained in a double-difference (DD) mode were used. For representation of the sea level dynamics, the Latvian tide gauge records were used. Performed correlation analysis is based on yearly data sets of these observations for the period from 2012 up to 2020. The approach discloses how the non-tidal loading can induce variations in the time series of the regional GNSS station network. This paper increases understanding of the Earth's surface displacements occurring due to the non-tidal loading effect in Latvia, and is intended to raise the importance and necessity of improved Latvian GNSS time series by removing loading effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The swordfish, Xiphias gladius Linnaeus, 1758, is a fish that sporadically enters the Baltic Sea. The present paper describes the identification of a very rarely recorded and poorly studied copepod of the family Philichthyidae – Philichthys xiphiaeSteenstrup, 1862 – in a dead swordfish found on a sea beach in Dźwirzyno (Poland) in 2016. Philichthyidae are parasites inhabiting the sensory canals in the lateral line and skull bones of marine fish. In the present case, two P. xiphiae females were found, which constitutes the first record of the species in the Baltic area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper aims at advancing global change management in marine archipelago environments. Water properties vary along temporal and vertical gradients, and studies indicate that these patterns may be site-specific, i.e., they may vary at local or regional scales. Understanding these complex processes is crucial for designing environmental monitoring campaigns or assessing the scalability of their results. To our knowledge, the four-dimensional (temporal, vertical and horizontal) patterns of water quality have not been statistically quantified. In this paper, we partition the variation in four key water property variables into temporal, vertical and horizontal dimensions, by utilising a unique pre-existing high-density dataset and multilevel regression modelling. The dataset comprised measurements of temperature, salinity, pH and chlorophyll-a concentration, sampled eight times from April to October on the SW Finnish archipelago coast. All variables were sampled along the depth gradient and at local (102 m) and regional scales (104 m) at 20 sites. All measured variables varied significantly along the temporal and vertical gradients, and the overall levels, temporal patterns and vertical gradients of these variables were significantly site-dependent. Our study confirms that many water properties, especially chlorophyll-a concentration, show high four-dimensional variability in the complex archipelago environment. Thus, studies on the regional dynamics of archipelago water properties call for a high sampling density in time, along the vertical gradient, and in space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we critically reflect on the ability of spatial and sectoral planning approaches to deal with regional climate change, especially sea level rise, and analyze the potential of ecosystem service assessments in regional coastal climate change adaptation planning. We present two concrete but contrasting case studies that focus on coastal realignment and wetland restoration as well as seaside tourism and resort development on the German Baltic Sea coast. The ecosystem service assessments compare past, present and potential future local development scenarios. Complementary, we apply the InVest and the Matrix ecosystem service assessment approaches. Despite some shortcomings, the proactive German hierarchical planning system seems suitable to deal with climate change and provide a framework for adaptation measures in coastal zones. It largely prevents a shift of climate change risks between municipalities and stakeholders. Comparative ecosystem service assessments seem well suited to play a role in the planning process by raising awareness about problems, possible solutions and consequences. On a local level, they can provide comprehensive insight into consequences of alternative measures. Our examples show that, in principle, potential future situations can be addressed with comparative ecosystem service approaches. We discuss whether the results of hypothetical future scenarios, with inherent uncertainties, might be misleading and counterproductive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Griffins' Route is a new transboundary tourist project, the idea and theme of which are based on common history and cultural heritage of the Duchy of Pomerania. The studies presented show differences in the perception of the route and particular facilities. These differences depend on the visitors' country of origin, their emotional engagement, identification with the theme, and motives behind their trip. Different priorities in the interpretation of destinations have been observed as well. Moreover, the assessment of particular facilities and their representative role regarding the regional heritage have changed depending on the knowledge about the history of a place as well as its location and distance from the border. Reasons for these differences can be found in the complex history of the region, changes in borders and migration of people, especially after the Second World War. Changes of administrative, social and cultural factors have had their impact on the sense of identity and relations with neighboring countries. This paper concentrates on the perception and interpretation of the shared heritage, as well as shaping the tourist space around transboundary cultural routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although numerous settlement sites of Corded Ware culture have been discovered in Finland, only a few houses have been identified. This is in stark contrast to the abundant number of pithouses of local hunter-gatherers. This paper takes a closer look at the houses associated with Corded Ware culture, first, by introducing a recently excavated Corded Ware house from southern Finland and other houses connected to Corded Ware culture from Finland and the Karelian Isthmus, Russia, and second, by outlining the various types of Corded Ware houses around the Baltic Sea. After that, the emerging picture suggesting interaction between the regional variants of Corded Ware culture as well as between Corded Ware cultures and local hunter-gatherers will be discussed. Even if the remains of Corded Ware houses are few and often quite ambiguous, it will be concluded that several types of houses have existed in the area north of the Gulf of Finland, and the contacts between cultural traditions affected settlement types and house structures in each party involved in the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of sensitive indicators reflecting the state of the environment is an important issue for the monitoring of marine ecosystems. The spionid polychaete Marenzelleria arctia and pontoporeiid amphipod Monoporeia affinis are common macrobenthic species in the brackish Gulf of Finland (the easternmost Baltic Sea). This paper aims to apply the Benthic Opportunistic Polychaetes Amphipods (BOPA) and Benthic Opportunistic Annelid Amphipods (BO2A) indices based on the polychaete/amphipod ratio as indicators of the environmental state in this region. We analyzed the relationships between environmental variables and benthic indices based on samples from two benthic surveys in 2019 (10 sites) and 2020 (9 sites). The coastal sites were characterized by worse water quality (i.e., the higher concentration of hydrocarbons, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a), but cleaner sediments (i.e., total phosphorus, organic carbon, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and trace metals) than offshore sites. The BOPA and BO2A correlated positively with the level of water pollution and negatively with sediment pollution. The activity of the benthic organisms seems to strongly influence the concentration of contaminants in sediments, so this factor hinders the use of BOPA and BO2A indices for the assessment of bottom sediments quality in the eastern Baltic Sea. At the same time, this study shows that BOPA and BO2A indices can be used in assessing water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Praehistorische Zeitschrift is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The southwestern part of the Baltic Sea, including parts of the central European system, the Torne European Suture Zone, and the Ringkobing-Fyn High, is one of the most attractive areas for geoscientists due to its complicated geological structure caused by different tectonic events. In this paper, a local three-dimensional model of the crustal structures was developed based on interactive forward modeling of gravity data in the southwestern part of the Baltic Sea. The model considers sedimentary layers, upper crust, lower crust, and part of the upper mantle and applies the information of the area, including crustal thickness and Moho topography. Seismic sections and existing models in the area were used as the primary information to generate an appropriate initial model to reduce the problem of non-uniqueness, which is recognized as an inherent problem in potential fields modeling. The results indicated that the crustal thickness in the study area varies from 20 to 35 km. The thickest part is located in the Precambrian Baltic crust in the northeastern part of the region, and the thinnest part is in the margin of the Northern German Basin. The depth of Moho discontinuity in this area also varies from 26 to 42 km and shows significant changes on the sides of the Tornquist Zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of chronological and lithostratigraphic studies of five small lakes located in the northern part of the Karelian Isthmus, where the hypothetical connection between Lake Ladoga and the Baltic Sea existed until the second half of the Holocene when the Neva River broke through in the south. Stratigraphic sequences of these lakes demonstrate the transition from turbulent environments to low-energetic lacustrine sedimentation about 3000–3500 cal. yr BP. This indicates the termination of the northern Ladoga–Baltic connection as a result of isostatic uplift and the formation of the new Lake Ladoga outlet, the Neva River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food waste generation has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we investigate the availability of information regarding food waste management on-board ships and describe how this information is communicated by companies operating passenger ships in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, we summarize the aspects that influence efficient management of waste and identify pathways for food waste reduction on-board ships. The main three findings from this study are: (I) the information on waste handling at companies' websites was to a large extent lacking. Food waste was mentioned in 22% of investigated ferry ship operator cases and in 32% of cruise ship operator cases. (II) In the interviews with environmental managers from two passenger ship companies, various aspects of food waste handling on-board ships were identified, which could be further grouped into technical, economic, management, legal and social categories. We suggest that the aspects of waste handling presented in this paper can serve as a framework for detection of the challenges and possibilities for different actors including shipping companies, ports and waste management agents. (III) The pathways towards efficient food waste handling may differ for individual ships, as it depends on vessel age, type of equipment and route schedules. The effort should be put in separating food waste from the rest of waste streams as it enables a clearer picture of the waste produced, increases the handling alternatives and may provide technological and economic benefits. Transparency and communication between the waste handling actors is the key in finding tailor-made solutions for treatment of ship-generated waste. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses challenges and enablers for integrating a transboundary land-sea interaction (LSI) perspective into marine spatial planning (MSP) practice as experienced in the Baltic Sea Region. Collaborative research results from the Pan Baltic Scope project indicate that LSI remains an amorphous concept, particularly within a transboundary MSP context. Difficulty lies in bridging planning practices across land and sea and between varying uses, administrative settings and governance functions. Addressing LSI requires capacity, time, resources, awareness, reflection, and forums for collaborative learning across sectors and governance levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Northern Europe has been the target area in many regionwide geoid determination studies, the research has been land-focused, neglecting bathymetry information. With new projects, such as the Baltic Sea Chart Datum 2000, the attention is shifting toward the marine geoid. Hence, consideration for bathymetry has become relevant, the influence of which is studied. In the relatively shallow Baltic Sea, accounting for bathymetry-based residual terrain model reduction during gravity data processing induces marine geoid modeling differences (relative to neglecting bathymetry) mainly within 2 cm. However, the models can deviate up to 3–4 cm in some regions. Rugged Norwegian coastal areas, on the other hand, had modeling improvements around a decimeter. Considering bathymetry may thus help improve geoid modeling outcomes in future Northern Europe geoid determination projects. Besides using the conventional precise GNSS-leveling control points, the paper also demonstrates the usefulness of shipborne GNSS and airborne laser scanning-derived geoidal heights in validating geoid modeling results. A total of 70 gravimetric geoid solutions are presented, for instance, by varying the used reference global geopotential models. According to the comparisons, GOCO05c-based solutions generally perform the best, where modeling agreement with GNSS-leveling control points reached 2.9 cm (standard deviation) from a one-dimensional fit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reveals deglaciation palaeodynamics (Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 2 [MIS 2]) in Poland and the southern Baltic Sea (SBS) development during marine transgression/regression phases (MIS 1) determined by a numerical modelling method. The introduced approach uses a high-level polynomial regression followed by the integral calculus of successive functions and an application of formulae. As a result, palaeogeographic relations from primary matrix transform instantly into palaeodynamics within a nested matrix. Accordingly, within 9 ka of the late Pleistocene, glacial recession dynamics increased by two orders of magnitude, from -8.5 m/yr between Leszno (L, 24 ka BP) and Poznań (Poz, 20-19 ka BP) phases, through several dozen (-37.2 m/yr, -60.6 m/yr, -90.7 m/yr) to the maximum average equalling -427.3 m/yr (max. -861.4 m/yr) between the Pomeranian (Pom, 17-16 ka BP) and the Gardno (G, 16.8-16.6 ka BP) phases. In turn, SBS coastline transgression and regression dynamics varied by three orders of magnitude. Since the Baltic Ice Lake (BIL, 10.5-10.3 ka BP) up to the Yoldia Sea (YS, 10-9.9 ka BP) regression was intense and equalled -56.8 m/yr (max. -128.7 m/yr), followed by marine transgression towards the Ancylus Lake (AL, 8.7-8.5 ka BP) at 21.43 m/yr through 9.30-2.20 m/yr during the Littorina Sea 1 and Littorina Sea 2 stages (LS1 and LS2, since 7.7 ka BP), eventually 0.51 m/yr in the last 6.05 ka. The 2m sea-level rise scenario projections indicate approx. 3400 km2 of land and 684,000 inhabitants face flood risk around 2150--2240 CE, with marine transgression dynamics expected to range from 23.9--38.2 m/yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science is changing society's contribution to research projects worldwide. Non‐experts are no longer just spectators, they are active participants and supporters of scientific work. Using citizen science, that is, data collected by laypeople, the opportunities to collect large‐scale data on the environment are increasing. Such community‐based and citizen scientific approaches can provide useful tools as local people can be trained to accurately take measurements that can be used in scientific studies. However, little is known about how well volunteer‐based non‐standard subjective assessments of the environment based on prior experience only and no training compare with scientifically measured estimates of that environment. In this paper, we tested how well measures of coastal water quality assessed by local inhabitants corresponds with objective water quality data collected using scientific instruments. Our results showed that over 70% of the respondents assessed water quality in the right direction and almost 60% were correct in their estimates. We found that socio‐demographic factors affect the assessments, but do not markedly improve reliability. We conclude that simple questionnaires can be used to assess general coastal water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mineral Resources Management / Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi is the property of Mineral & Energy Economy Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Merchant vessels often require icebreaker (IB) assistance to create safe pathways and improve efficiency when navigating in the Baltic Sea. Since IB resources are limited, an accurate estimation on the need for IB assistance is important. Whether IB assistance is needed depends on multiple factors. While practical experience from captains is naturally a source of valuable information for the decision on the need for IB assistance, systematic analysis of the reasoning is limited. The primary aim of this paper is to holistically investigate the influencing factors and their effect on estimating the need for IB assistance through data-driven techniques. Based on a comprehensive list of potential factors, different of data such as traffic history, environmental conditions, and ship specifications are gathered to present complex navigational scenarios. Each scenario is labeled by different navigation modes (independent navigation or IB assistance), laying the foundation for influencing factor identification and effect quantification. Logistic regression is applied to evaluate the effect of the factors on the need for IB assistance. The results show that the impact of the factors is diverse, and ridged ice concentration has the most significant impact. The effectiveness of identified factors is measured by comparing it to that of the factors that have been implemented by the existing studies (e.g., the combination of ice concentration, thickness, and ship ice class, or only ship speed). By considering the factors in this study, the classification performance can be improved by at least 5.6%. The findings in this paper can provide insights for predicting IB workloads and optimizing IB resources and have the potential to support the development of an intelligent decision-support system for winter navigation. • A data-driven model was proposed to analyze navigation mode determination in ice-covered waters. • Influencing factors for the need for icebreaker assistance in ice were quantitively identified and assessed. • The impact of various influencing factors on ships with different ice classes was examined. • The innovation of influencing factor analysis was highlighted through model performance comparison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Archives of Environmental Protection is the property of Polish Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper presents an original approach to predicting oil slick movement and dispersion at the water surface. Special emphasis is placed on the impact of evolving hydro-meteorological conditions and the thickness of the oil spill layer. The main gap addressed by this study lies in the need for a comprehensive understanding of how changing environmental conditions and oil thickness interact to influence the movement and dispersion of oil slicks. By focusing on this aspect, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of oil spill behaviour, enhancing the ability to predict and mitigate the environmental impacts of such incidents. Self-designed software was applied to develop and modify previously established mathematical probabilistic models for predicting changes in the shape of the oil trajectory. First, a semi-Markov model of the process is constructed, and the oil thickness is analysed at the sea surface over time. Next, a stochastic-based procedure to forecast the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick in diverse hydro-meteorological conditions considering a varying oil layer thickness is presented. This involves determining the trajectory and movement of a slick domain, which consists of an elliptical combination of domains undergoing temporal changes. By applying the procedure and program, a short-term forecast of the horizontal movement and dispersion of an oil slick provided its trajectory at the Bornholm Basin of the Baltic Sea within two days. The research results obtained are preliminary prediction results, although the approach considered in this paper can help responders understand the scope of the problem and mitigate the effects of environmental damage if the oil discharge reaches sensitive ecosystems. Finally, further perspectives of this research are given.

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting hydro–meteorological changes in a marine area, i.e., in large bodies of water, from open water to coastal zones. First, hydro–meteorological factors, their interactions, and their implications for marine ecosystems are described. In addition, an analysis is outlined specifically for the Baltic Sea area. Next, the procedure for forecasting expected changes in major hydro–meteorological parameters in the sea is presented and a series of steps is accurately described. An extensive prognosis is provided for the southern Baltic Sea region using historical data obtained from the Polish National Institute of Water Management and Meteorology. The procedure is applied for seven measurement points which were assigned to four sub-areas for examining trends in wind regimes and wave height patterns using the authors’ own written software and statistical methods for data analysis. The model was validated within the southern Baltic Sea region. This paper also highlights the significance of forecasting for human beings, the environment, and critical infrastructure by proposing adaptive strategies and integrated coastal zone management in mitigating risks and enhancing resilience. Finally, future directions for research are proposed.

This paper evaluates Swedish Food Agency's communication strategy with regard to the benefits and risks associated with eating Baltic Sea fatty fish. It concludes that the agency is doing a rather good job in this area. Its levels of trust among the Swedish public remain high. The 2012–2013 campaign should be seen as a success especially with such a limited budget. A number of 'at risk' groups now have a better understanding about the risks of eating too much fatty fish from the Baltic Sea. What is concerning, however, is that a large number of females of childbearing age still have not picked up the agency's message on this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The area of the Coastal Landscape Park (CLP) due to its location is extremely attractive touristic area. In the summer season, a significant increase in population density is observed, which influences surface water quality. Large numbers of tourists generate an increased amount of municipal wastewater, being treated in local treatment plants and discharged into rivers and streams. The paper presents preliminary research from summer 2016 on three watercourses ending in the Baltic Sea: Piaśnica, Karwianka and Czarna Wda rivers. It is a part of a long-term project conducted in CLP to assess surface waters quality. The scope of research included measurements of in situ parameters (temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen). Chemical Oxygen Demand was determined using a spectrophotometer. Ion chromatography was used to determine ions concentrations (including biogenic compounds). Sanitary state of watercourses was assessed based on fecal coliforms abundance, which number was determined by the cultivation method. The determination of microbiological parameters such as: prokaryotic cell abundance expressed as total cells number (TCN), prokaryotic cell biovolume expressed as average cell volume (ACV), the prokaryotic biomass (PB) and prokaryotic cell morphotype diversity was determined using epifluorescence microscopy method. Results showed that water quality of Piaśnica and Czarna Wda rivers were affected by discharged treated wastewater. In the case of Karwianka River, the main pollution source could be surface runoff from fields and unregulated sewage management in this area. The conducted research confirmed the urgent need for better protection of this area to conserve both its ecosystem and value for tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address "wicked problems" that threaten the good ecological status of the Baltic Sea such as climate change with diverse stakeholder values and complex solutions, new interdisciplinary knowledge that incorporates citizen science is urgently needed. This paper scrutinizes environmental heritage in the Baltic Sea region by exploring what it means to persons living in the Baltic Sea environment. It asks the question, what is environmental heritage? It uses a qualitative research method using both texts and photographs--collected in an open competition--to consider humanistic viewpoints of persons living in the changing climate in the Baltic Sea Region. A thematic content analysis was utilized to identify emerging themes in the text and visual inquiry was used to decipher what meanings related to environmental change were conveyed in submitted the photographs. Some of the findings include that environmental heritage is perceived as experiences of living and interacting with the Sea and other non-human actors like animals, but also as material objects in the environment such as sustainable architecture. It also found that environmental heritage is articulated as a source of conflict, between users and uses and the traditional and new ways of life. Resolution of this conflict is important in guiding effective solutions to the challenge of climate change. It is thus important to develop interdisciplinary methods that facilitate the merging of different knowledge systems in order to generate effective solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how change is brought about in quality governance of Baltic maritime oil transportation. Design/methodology/approach – This qualitative case-study sought to understand the underlying mechanisms of quality governance. The paper analyzed versatile empirical material (including expert interviews) to uncover how a particular constellation of public and private, binding and voluntary, internal and external quality standards impacted the process of institution building for quality management in Baltic oil shipping. Findings – The paper shows that emergence of quality practices in oil shipping is associated not only with the development of shipping industry as a whole, but also with the dynamics within the energy value chain. The findings suggest that alignment between rules and incentives is specific to a combination of given natural, political and economic contexts as well as physical infrastructure which set applied limitations upon the governance process and, eventually, impact the set of quality governance mechanisms available for use. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows that collective action is contextually-bound, thus the mechanisms of quality shipping governance can essentially differ from one locality to another. This implies that local solutions can be found to problems conventionally identified as global. Practical implications – Paper’s findings question the applicability of “one-size-fits-all” approaches to policy-making and calls for more targeted regulation. The research also stresses the role of technical modernization in prompting actual change in regards to quality practices. Originality/value – This research claims that transition to sustainable transportation systems requires institutions that are capable of linking actors and contexts in a way that balances supply and demand for quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding the influence of biological processes on the characteristics of the signals backscattered by the sea floor is crucial in the development of the hydroacoustical benthic habitat classification techniques. The impact of the microphytobenthos photosynthesis on the acoustical backscattering properties of the Atlantic sandy sediments was previously demonstrated by H olliday et al. (2004) and W ildman and H uettel (2012). To account for the sensitivity of the hydroacoustical classification techniques to the backscattering properties of local marine sediments, it is important to understand the microphytobenthos photosynthesis impact for the Baltic Sea where the techniques are being actively developed now. This is the main motivation of the paper. In the paper the influence of the microphytobenthos photosynthesis on the characteristics of the echo signals reflected by sandy sediments in the typical Baltic temperature and the salinity conditions is discussed. The interdisciplinary multiday laboratory experiment was conducted to study the impact of benthic microalgal photosynthesis on the characteristics of the echo signal reflected by sandy sediments. Hydroacoustical data were collected under controlled constant light, temperature and salinity conditions. The oxygen content at different levels of the water column was simultaneously monitored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Baltic Sea environmental protection regime is an example of a close science–policy interface. At the same time, however, research on international environmental regimes increasingly admits that experience-based knowledge may serve as a useful instrument to facilitate effectiveness of environmental management. Moreover, in an ‘age of expertise’, questions about the relation of expertise to citizen participation in policy-making are perhaps more relevant than ever. Using expert interviews and policy documents as the main data, the paper examines the close relationship between the scientific community and the international regime and assesses the possibilities for public engagement and, consequently, integrating experience-based knowledge into the work of the regime. In the paper, it is analysed how the scientific community in Finland defines the problem of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea vis-a-vis the transnational policy regime; also spatial and temporal scale frames are identified. Results indicate that the dominant problem and scale framings emphasize the ecosystem-wide ecological and scientific-technical nature of the problem and its solution, which restricts the possibilities of public engagement and integration of experience-based knowledge into management. Finally, the paper discusses the pros and cons of management approaches based on scientific vis-à-vis experience-based knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a time-dependent phosphorus (P) budget model for the Baltic proper, describing sources and sinks at the external borders of the water column, one may compute the e-folding time T of the adjustment of the winter surface water P concentration c to abruptly changed total P supply. The restoration time TR = 3 T is introduced as a practical measure of the time it takes to achieve 95% of the change of c towards the final, equilibrium, state c . The P budget model, including an internal source emanating from deep anoxic bottoms, also shows that c is proportional to the total P supply to the water column. About 70% of present time total P supply to the Baltic proper comes from deep anoxic bottoms. If deep bottoms were kept oxygenated, this internal P supply would be turned off and the equilibrium concentration c would be reduced by about 70%. This should imply that the Baltic proper may be restored to a state determined by the external P supplies from land-based and oceanic sources. According to the model, restoration would take 10-15 years. Thereafter most of the equipment used for oxygenation may be shut off since also the deepwater oxygen demand by decomposition of fresh organic matter, would have decreased by about 70% implying that the deepwater would be kept oxic by the natural vertical circulation. The model presented in this paper provides a new science-based solution of the eutrophication problem of the Baltic proper, which is of great interest from a management point of view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wave power is an abundant source of energy that can be utilized to produce electricity. Therefore, assessments of wave power resources are being carried out worldwide. An overview of the recent assessments is presented in this paper, revealing the global distribution of these resources. Additionally, a study, which aims to assess the spatial distribution of the Baltic Sea near-shore wave power potential along the coast of Klaipėda (Lithuania), is introduced in this paper. The impacts of the wave propagation direction and decreasing depth on wave power resources were examined using the numerical wind-wave model MIKE 21 NSW. The wave height loss of the design waves propagating to shore was modelled, and the wave power fluxes in the studied depths were calculated using the JONSWAP wave spectrum modified for the Baltic Sea. The results revealed that all waves that propagate to the shore in the Baltic Sea near-shore area along the coast of Klaipėda from 30 m depth to 5 m depth lose at least 30% of their power. Still, most common waves in this area are low, and therefore, they start to lose their power while propagating to the shore at relatively low (10-14 m) depths. To turn this into an advantage the wave power converter would have to work efficiently under low power conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The Baltic Sea region has in recent years become known as a pioneer of new modes of governance, reflecting the dynamic development of the network society. At the same time, the Baltic Sea is considered one of the world's most polluted seas, especially in terms of eutrophication, the accelerated enrichment of nutrients in the water. Overall, there is a contrast between the formally successful governance system and the actual state of the Baltic Sea. This paper describes the existing Baltic Sea environmental governance system, from the regional regime to non-governmental actors, noting that highly institutionalized inter-state and transnational environmental cooperation adds a greater element of hierarchy for environmental governance in the region. Supporting democratic development is a special requirement for governance in the post-Cold War context. The paper explicates governance challenges posed by the emerging network society, on the one hand, and the problem of eutrophication, on the other, and makes suggestions on how to develop the governance system in order to meet the challenges. As a conclusion, a general lesson for the management of international water bodies is given. Institutional diversity with many different scale preoccupations is key, but so is the need for leaders to overcome the challenges of polycentric governance: that is, to reduce opacity of governing and to increase the power of stakeholders to define the problem and its solutions in the first place. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently discovered, ocean submesoscales have attracted considerable attention due to their ability to change the upper ocean stratification, affect vertical transport, and induce a downscale cascade of energy toward dissipation. In this paper, we highlight the effect of submesoscale fronts and filaments on surface layer properties and dynamics during storm events, extending previous idealized simulations toward real‐ocean applications. Here, we use the Baltic Sea as a natural laboratory to study the rich submesoscale activity of this system with the help of realistic high‐resolution numerical simulations. These simulations reveal a wealth of cold submesoscale filaments with sharp lateral buoyancy gradients, strong surface convergence, and high vertical velocities. Highly heterogeneous Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) modulations are associated with these features, maintaining locally reduced MLDs even during storm events due to vigorous submesoscale restratification. The interaction of near‐surface turbulence and submesoscale restratification results in strong and highly efficient mixing inside the submesoscale fronts. Focusing on a typical filament, it is shown that frontogenesis is associated with the convergent cross‐front circulation arising from a turbulent thermal wind balance, consistent with previous studies. We show that the sharp fronts generated by this process may become symmetrically unstable, and show enhanced (modeled) energy dissipation rates that are in good quantitative agreement with existing theoretical estimates. Plain Language Summary: Recent studies have revealed that horizontal density differences on scales of 0.1–10 km (submesoscales) are ubiquitous in the surface mixed layer and play an essential role in its evolution. Submesoscale features can restratify, that is, bring warm water above cold water and shallow the depth of the mixed layer, which along with their high vertical velocities, makes them particularly relevant for biology. In this study, we highlight the effect of submesoscales on the restratification process and near‐surface turbulence during the lifetime of storms, thereby extending previous idealized simulations toward real‐ocean applications. We analyze a realistic high‐resolution numerical simulation focusing on the central Baltic Sea, an area where observations from a field campaign confirm that it constitutes a hotspot of submesoscale activity, hence forming an ideal natural laboratory. The simulation reveals a strong lateral temperature gradient that persists during autumn. The basin is found to be rich in submesoscale features that create shallow and heterogeneous Mixed Layer Depths (MLDs). The MLD presents high temporal variability, with the submesoscales being able to maintain shallow MLDs during storms and induce rapid restratification when the wind subsides. Submesoscale restratification tends to counteract the destratification effect caused by atmospheric forcing, yielding stably stratified patches. Key Points: Using realistic simulations a strong surface front, characterized by intense submesoscale activity, was identified in the central Baltic SeaSubmesoscales maintain shallow mixed layers during storms and induce rapid restratification afterward creating stably stratified patchesThe interaction of near‐surface turbulence and submesoscale restratification results in highly efficient mixing inside submesoscale fronts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of the Baltic Sea eutrophication is associated with the increase of anthropogenic nutrients loads, mainly nitrogen and phosphorus introduced into surface waters from a diffuse, point and natural background sources. Despite the observed decreasing trends in nutrient concentrations in some parts of the Baltic Sea, eutrophication-related indicators continue to deteriorate. This accelerates harmful algal blooms and dissolved oxygen deficits resulting in severe ecosystem disturbance. The paper presents trends, insights and effects of the Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive 91/271/EEC implementation in Poland based on the nutrient riverine loads from Polish territory with particular attention given to the development of municipal wastewater treatment plants under the National Wastewater Treatment Programme 2003–2016. Environmental effects of wastewater infrastructure modernisation are investigated by using available data on the changing nutrient concentrations in the coastal water in 3 basins (Gdansk Basin, Bornholm Basin and Eastern Gotland Basin) belonging to the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone within the Baltic Sea. The results show that the decreasing trend regarding phosphorus loads reduction from municipal effluents was achieved while a stable trend with temporary increases was achieved in terms of nitrogen loads. Moreover, the investigation provides information about the potential bioavailability of discharged effluents before and after the Directive implementation by including total and inorganic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus in the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The paper presents the results of the analysis of diatoms from surface sediments (stones, sands) and macroflora (seagrass, macroalgae) collected at 16 sampling sites located along the inner coastal zone of Puck Bay (southern Baltic Sea) along the Hel Peninsula. The main diatom species of epilithon, epipsammon and epiphyton were characterized with respect to their autecological preferences (habitat, salinity, trophic status, saprobity). Three groups of diatoms were distinguished with respect to the type of substrate based on the results of benthic flora analysis: diatoms (i) of one type of substrate, (ii) of two types and (iii) those occurring on all types of substrates. Moreover, the distribution of benthic diatom communities indicates ecological differences in the study area. Marine and brackish-water species were observed in large numbers in the coastal zone of the Outer Puck Bay, whereas freshwater flora occurred with a higher frequency in the coastal zone of the Puck Lagoon. The content of polysaprobionts and of α-mesosaprobionts indicates that the region of the Hel Tip is highly eutrophicated and very polluted. The coast in the vicinity of Kuznica is less polluted, whereas the best environmental conditions are found in the Jurata–Jastarnia region, as evidenced by the frequency of diatoms that are β-mesosaprobionts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the prospects for the implementation of multi-level governance of maritime security in the Sulu-Celebes Sea Tri-Border Area, noting the interdependencies within its terrestrial-maritime environments. It draws on the lessons of multi-level governance practices in the Baltic Sea region. A multi-level governance framework of maritime security in the Baltic Sea region is elaborated to identify the key characteristics of multi-level governance that are important prerequisites for an integrated (land-sea) nexus in maritime security management. Through the examination of the functionality of these characteristics in the Sulu-Celebes Sea, the paper discusses the implications of the existence, and or the lack, of these main characteristics of a functional multi-level governance and assesses the prospects of such governance within the Sulu-Celebes Sea. The 'common seas' nature of the semi-enclosed sea and the entanglement of transboundary, land-maritime dimensions of the maritime security challenges imply the need for a distinct form of governance, for which the Baltic Sea region can provide lessons learnt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]