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This article offers a formal account of curiosity and insight in terms of active (Bayesian) inference. It deals with the dual problem of inferring states of the world and learning its statistical structure. In contrast to current trends in machine learning (e.g., deep learning), we focus on how people attain insight and understanding using just a handful of observations, which are solicited through curious behavior. We use simulations of abstract rule learning and approximate Bayesian inference to show that minimizing (expected) variational free energy leads to active sampling of novel contingencies. This epistemic behavior closes explanatory gaps in generative models of the world, thereby reducing uncertainty and satisfying curiosity. We then move from epistemic learning to model selection or structure learning to show how abductive processes emerge when agents test plausible hypotheses about symmetries (i.e., invariances or rules) in their generative models. The ensuing Bayesian model reduction evinces mechanisms associated with sleep and has all the hallmarks of "aha" moments. This formulation moves toward a computational account of consciousness in the pre-Cartesian sense of sharable knowledge (i.e., con: "together"; scire: "to know"). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The neural substrate of bodily ownership can be disclosed by the rubber hand illusion (RHI); namely, the illusory self-attribution of an artificial hand that is induced by synchronous tactile stimulation of the subject's hand that is hidden from view. Previous studies have pointed to the premotor cortex (PMC) as a pivotal area in such illusions. To investigate the effective connectivity between – and within – sensory and premotor areas involved in bodily perceptions, we used dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked responses in 13 healthy subjects. Each subject's right hand was stroked while viewing their own hand (“REAL”), or an artificial hand presented in an anatomically plausible (“CONGRUENT”) or implausible (“INCONGRUENT”) position. Bayesian model comparison revealed strong evidence for a differential involvement of the PMC in the generation of touch-evoked responses under the three conditions, confirming a crucial role of PMC in bodily self-attribution. In brief, the extrinsic (forward) connection from left occipital cortex to left PMC was stronger for CONGRUENT and INCONGRUENT as compared to REAL, reflecting the augmentation of bottom-up visual input when multisensory integration is challenged. Crucially, intrinsic connectivity in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) was attenuated in the CONGRUENT condition, during the illusory percept. These findings support predictive coding models of the functional architecture of multisensory integration (and attenuation) in bodily perceptual experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial evidence indicates that incentive value depends on an anticipation of rewards within a given context. However, the computations underlying this context sensitivity remain unknown. To address this question, we introduce a normative (Bayesian) account of how rewards map to incentive values. This assumes that the brain inverts a model of how rewards are generated. Key features of our account include (i) an influence of prior beliefs about the context in which rewards are delivered (weighted by their reliability in a Bayes-optimal fashion), (ii) the notion that incentive values correspond to precision-weighted prediction errors, (iii) and contextual information unfolding at different hierarchical levels. This formulation implies that incentive value is intrinsically context-dependent. We provide empirical support for this model by showing that incentive value is influenced by context variability and by hierarchically nested contexts. The perspective we introduce generates new empirical predictions that might help explaining psychopathologies, such as addiction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this technical note we compare the performance of four gradient-free MCMC samplers (random walk Metropolis sampling, slice-sampling, adaptive MCMC sampling and population-based MCMC sampling with tempering) in terms of the number of independent samples they can produce per unit computational time. For the Bayesian inversion of a single-node neural mass model, both adaptive and population-based samplers are more efficient compared with random walk Metropolis sampler or slice-sampling; yet adaptive MCMC sampling is more promising in terms of compute time. Slice-sampling yields the highest number of independent samples from the target density — albeit at almost 1000% increase in computational time, in comparison to the most efficient algorithm (i.e., the adaptive MCMC sampler). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Normal ageing is associated with a decline in episodic memory, and neuroimaging studies in older adults have shown reduced activity in prefrontal cortex and other regions critical for memory function in the young. However, older adults also activate additional regions, suggesting a degree of functional reorganisation that has been attributed variously to detrimental and adaptive changes. Evaluation of these competing hypotheses depends critically upon inferences about the relative location and distribution of activity that are not well supported by current univariate or multivariate analyses. Here, we employed a recently developed model-based multivariate ‘decoding’ approach (Friston et al., 2008) to re-analyse a rich episodic encoding dataset and examine directly how the patterns of activity change in ageing. We assessed which spatial activity patterns, within lateral prefrontal cortex, best predict successful memory formation. Bayesian model comparison showed that the older adults had more distributed and bilateral (fragmented) predictive patterns of activity in anterior inferior frontal gyrus and middle frontal gyrus. With this direct multivariate test for changes in patterns of activity, we replicate and extend earlier findings of reduced prefrontal lateralisation in ageing. These findings extend conclusions based on conventional analyses, and support the notion that ageing alters the spatial deployment of neuronal activity, to render it less spatially coherent and regionally specific. This greater distribution of activity in older adults was also linked to poorer individual memory performance, suggesting that it reflects neural ageing, rather than adaptive compensatory responses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper is about inferring or discovering the functional architecture of distributed systems using Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM). We describe a scheme that recovers the (dynamic) Bayesian dependency graph (connections in a network) using observed network activity. This network discovery uses Bayesian model selection to identify the sparsity structure (absence of edges or connections) in a graph that best explains observed time-series. The implicit adjacency matrix specifies the form of the network (e.g., cyclic or acyclic) and its graph-theoretical attributes (e.g., degree distribution). The scheme is illustrated using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series to discover functional brain networks. Crucially, it can be applied to experimentally evoked responses (activation studies) or endogenous activity in task-free (resting state) fMRI studies. Unlike conventional approaches to network discovery, DCM permits the analysis of directed and cyclic graphs. Furthermore, it eschews (implausible) Markovian assumptions about the serial independence of random fluctuations. The scheme furnishes a network description of distributed activity in the brain that is optimal in the sense of having the greatest conditional probability, relative to other networks. The networks are characterised in terms of their connectivity or adjacency matrices and conditional distributions over the directed (and reciprocal) effective connectivity between connected nodes or regions. We envisage that this approach will provide a useful complement to current analyses of functional connectivity for both activation and resting-state studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We describe the use of spatial and temporal constraints in dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of magneto- and electroencephalography (M/EEG) data. DCM for M/EEG is based on a spatiotemporal, generative model of electromagnetic brain activity. The temporal dynamics are described by neural-mass models of equivalent current dipole (ECD) sources and their spatial expression is modelled by parameterized lead-field functions. Often, in classical ECD models, symmetry constraints are used to model homologous pairs of dipoles in both hemispheres. These constraints are motivated by assumptions about symmetric activation of bilateral sensory sources. In classical approaches, these constraints are ‘hard’; i.e. the parameters of homologous dipoles are shared. Here, in the context of DCM, we illustrate the use of informed Bayesian priors to implement ‘soft’ symmetry constraints that are expressed in the posterior estimates only when supported by the data. Critically, with DCM one can deploy symmetry constraints in either the temporal or spatial components of the model. This enables one to test for symmetry in temporal (neural-mass) parameters in the presence of non-symmetric spatial expressions of homologous sources (and vice versa). Furthermore, we demonstrate that Bayesian model comparison can be used to identify the best models among a range of symmetric and non-symmetric variants. Our main finding is that the use of ‘soft’ symmetry priors is recommended for evoked responses to bilateral sensory input. We illustrate the use of symmetry constraints in DCM on synthetic and real EEG data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) is a modelling framework used to describe causal interactions in dynamical systems. It was developed to infer the causal architecture of networks of neuronal populations in the brain [Friston, K.J., Harrison, L, Penny, W., 2003. Dynamic causal modelling. NeuroImage. Aug; 19 (4): 1273–302]. In current formulations of DCM, the mean structure of the likelihood is a nonlinear and numerical function of the parameters, which precludes exact or analytic Bayesian inversion. To date, approximations to the posterior depend on the assumption of normality (i.e., the Laplace assumption). In particular, two arguments have been used to motivate normality of the prior and posterior distributions. First, Gaussian priors on the parameters are specified carefully to ensure that activity in the dynamic system of neuronal populations converges to a steady state (i.e., the dynamic system is dissipative). Secondly, normality of the posterior is an approximation based on general asymptotic results, regarding the form of the posterior under infinite data [Friston, K.J., Harrison, L, Penny, W., 2003. Dynamic causal modelling. NeuroImage. Aug; 19 (4): 1273–302]. Here, we provide a critique of these assumptions and evaluate them numerically. We use a Bayesian inversion scheme (the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm) that eschews both assumptions. This affords an independent route to the posterior and an external means to assess the performance of conventional schemes for DCM. It also allows us to assess the sensitivity of the posterior to different priors. First, we retain the conventional priors and compare the ensuing approximate posterior (Laplace) to the exact posterior (MCMC). Our analyses show that the Laplace approximation is appropriate for practical purposes. In a second, independent set of analyses, we compare the exact posterior under conventional priors with an exact posterior under newly defined uninformative priors. Reassuringly, we observe that the posterior is, for all practical purposes, insensitive of the choice of prior. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Inferences about brain function, using neuroimaging data, rest on models of how the data were caused. These models can be quite diverse, ranging from conceptual models of functional anatomy to nonlinear mathematical models of hemodynamics. However, they all have to be internally consistent because they model the same thing. This consistency encompasses many levels of description and places constraints on the statistical models, adopted for data analysis, and the experimental designs they embody. The aim of this review is to introduce the key models used in imaging neuro-science and how they relate to each other. We start with anatomical models of functional brain architectures, which motivate some of the fundaments of neuroimaging. We then turn to basic statistical models (e.g., the general linear model) used for making classical and Bayesian inferences about where neuronal responses are expressed. By incorporating biophysical constraints, these basic models can be finessed and, in a dynamic setting, rendered causal. This allows us to infer how interactions among brain regions are mediated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Context-sensitive and activity-dependent fluctuations in connectivity underlie functional integration in the brain and have been studied widely in terms of synaptic plasticity, learning and condition-specific (e.g., attentional) modulations of synaptic efficacy. This dynamic aspect of brain connectivity has recently attracted a lot of attention in the resting state fMRI community. To explain dynamic functional connectivity in terms of directed effective connectivity among brain regions, we introduce a novel method to identify dynamic effective connectivity using spectral dynamic causal modelling (spDCM). We used parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) to model fluctuations in directed coupling over consecutive windows of resting state fMRI time series. Hierarchical PEB can model random effects on connectivity parameters at the second (between-window) level given connectivity estimates from the first (within-window) level. In this work, we used a discrete cosine transform basis set or eigenvariates (i.e., expression of principal components) to model fluctuations in effective connectivity over windows. We evaluated the ensuing dynamic effective connectivity in terms of the consistency of baseline connectivity within default mode network (DMN), using the resting state fMRI from Human Connectome Project (HCP). To model group-level baseline and dynamic effective connectivity for DMN, we extended the PEB approach by conducting a multilevel PEB analysis of between-session and between-subject group effects. Model comparison clearly spoke to dynamic fluctuations in effective connectivity – and the dynamic functional connectivity these changes explain. Furthermore, baseline effective connectivity was consistent across independent sessions – and notably more consistent than estimates based upon conventional models. This work illustrates the advantage of hierarchical modelling with spDCM, in characterizing the dynamics of effective connectivity. Highlights • We describe efficient estimation of dynamics in resting state effective connectivity. • Spectral DCM and PEB are used to model fluctuations in neuronal coupling over time. • Dynamics in responses are explained in terms of its causes (effective connectivity). • Baseline and dynamic components of the default mode connectivity are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated control refers to the coordination of behaviour to achieve affectively valenced outcomes or goals. The study of motivated control traditionally assumes a distinction between control and motivational processes, which map to distinct (dorsolateral versus ventromedial) brain systems. However, the respective roles and interactions between these processes remain controversial. We offer a novel perspective that casts control and motivational processes as complementary aspects − goal propagation and prioritization, respectively − of active inference and hierarchical goal processing under deep generative models. We propose that the control hierarchy propagates prior preferences or goals, but their precision is informed by the motivational context, inferred at different levels of the motivational hierarchy. The ensuing integration of control and motivational processes underwrites action and policy selection and, ultimately, motivated behaviour, by enabling deep inference to prioritize goals in a context-sensitive way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence suggests the incentive value of an option is affected by other options available during choice and by options presented in the past. These contextual effects are hard to reconcile with classical theories and have inspired accounts where contextual influences play a crucial role. However, each account only addresses one or the other of the empirical findings and a unifying perspective has been elusive. Here, we offer a unifying theory of context effects on incentive value attribution and choice based on normative Bayesian principles. This formulation assumes that incentive value corresponds to a precision-weighted prediction error, where predictions are based upon expectations about reward. We show that this scheme explains a wide range of contextual effects, such as those elicited by other options available during choice (or within-choice context effects). These include both conditions in which choice requires an integration of multiple attributes and conditions where a multi-attribute integration is not necessary. Moreover, the same scheme explains context effects elicited by options presented in the past or between-choice context effects. Our formulation encompasses a wide range of contextual influences (comprising both within- and between-choice effects) by calling on Bayesian principles, without invoking ad-hoc assumptions. This helps clarify the contextual nature of incentive value and choice behaviour and may offer insights into psychopathologies characterized by dysfunctional decision-making, such as addiction and pathological gambling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Normative models of human cognition often appeal to Bayesian filtering, which provides optimal online estimates of unknown or hidden states of the world, based on previous observations. However, in many cases it is necessary to optimise beliefs about sequences of states rather than just the current state. Importantly, Bayesian filtering and sequential inference strategies make different predictions about beliefs and subsequent choices, rendering them behaviourally dissociable. Taking data from a probabilistic reversal task we show that subjects’ choices provide strong evidence that they are representing short sequences of states. Between-subject measures of this implicit sequential inference strategy had a neurobiological underpinning and correlated with grey matter density in prefrontal and parietal cortex, as well as the hippocampus. Our findings provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence for sequential inference in human cognition, and by exploiting between subject variation in this measure we provide pointers to its neuronal substrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we compare mean-field and neural-mass models of electrophysiological responses using Bayesian model comparison. In previous work, we presented a mean-field model of neuronal dynamics as observed with magnetoencephalography and electroencephalography. Unlike neural-mass models, which consider only the mean activity of neuronal populations, mean-field models track the distribution (e.g., mean and dispersion) of population activity. This can be important if the mean affects the dispersion or vice versa. Here, we introduce a dynamical causal model based on mean-field (i.e., population density) models of neuronal activity, and use it to assess the evidence for a coupling between the mean and dispersion of hidden neuronal states using observed electromagnetic responses. We used Bayesian model comparison to compare homologous mean-field and neural-mass models, asking whether empirical responses support a role for population variance in shaping neuronal dynamics. We used the mismatch negativity (MMN) and somatosensory evoked potentials (SEP) as representative neuronal responses in physiological and non-physiological paradigms respectively. Our main conclusion was that although neural-mass models may be sufficient for cognitive paradigms, there is clear evidence for an effect of dispersion at the high levels of depolarization evoked in SEP paradigms. This suggests that (i) the dispersion of neuronal states within populations generating evoked brain signals can be manifest in observed brain signals and that (ii) the evidence for their effects can be accessed with dynamic causal model comparison. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We present an empirical Bayesian scheme for distributed multimodal inversion of electromagnetic forward models of EEG and MEG signals. We used a generative model with common source activity and separate error components for each modality. Under this scheme, the weightings of error for each modality, relative to source components, are estimated automatically from the data, by optimising the model-evidence. This obviates the need for arbitrary user-defined weightings. To evaluate the scheme, we acquired three types of data simultaneously from twelve participants: total magnetic flux (as recorded by 102 magnetometers), orthogonal in-plane gradients of the magnetic field (as recorded by 204 planar gradiometers) and voltage differences in the electrical field (recorded by 70 electrodes). We assessed the relative precision of each sensor-type in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR); using empirical sample variances and optimised estimators from the generative model. We then compared the localisation of face-evoked responses, using each modality separately, with that obtained by their “fusion” under the common generative model. Finally, we quantified the conditional precisions of the source estimates using their posterior covariance, confirming that EEG can improve MEG-based source reconstructions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Dynamic causal modelling is an approach to characterising evoked responses as measured by magneto/electroencephalography (M/EEG). A dynamic causal model (DCM) is a spatiotemporal, generative network model for event-related fields/responses (ERP/ERF) data. Using Bayesian model inversion, one can compute the posterior distributions of the DCM’s physiological parameters and its marginal likelihood for model comparison. Model comparison can be used to test mechanistic hypotheses about how electrophysiological data were generated. In this work, we look at the relative importance of changes in intrinsic (within source) and extrinsic (between sources) connections in generating mismatch responses. In short, we introduce the modulation of intrinsic connectivity to the DCM framework. This is useful for testing hypotheses about adaptation of neuronal responses to local influences, in relation to influences that are mediated by long-range extrinsic connections (forward, backward, and lateral) from other sources. We illustrate this extension using synthetic data and empirical data from an oddball ERP experiment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Pathophysiological explanations of epilepsy typically focus on either the micro/mesoscale (e.g. excitation-inhibition imbalance), or on the macroscale (e.g. network architecture). Linking abnormalities across spatial scales remains difficult, partly because of technical limitations in measuring neuronal signatures concurrently at the scales involved. Here we use light sheet imaging of the larval zebrafish brain during acute epileptic seizure induced with pentylenetetrazole. Spectral changes of spontaneous neuronal activity during the seizure are then modelled using neural mass models, allowing Bayesian inference on changes in effective network connectivity and their underlying synaptic dynamics. This dynamic causal modelling of seizures in the zebrafish brain reveals concurrent changes in synaptic coupling at macro- and mesoscale. Fluctuations of both synaptic connection strength and their temporal dynamics are required to explain observed seizure patterns. These findings highlight distinct changes in local (intrinsic) and long-range (extrinsic) synaptic transmission dynamics as a possible seizure pathomechanism and illustrate how our Bayesian model inversion approach can be used to link existing neural mass models of seizure activity and novel experimental methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the subjective precision (inverse variance) of Bayesian beliefs during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects viewed a sinusoidal target, with or without random fluctuations in its motion. Eye trajectories and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data were recorded concurrently. The target was periodically occluded, such that its reappearance caused a visual evoked response field (ERF). Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was used to fit models of eye trajectories and the ERFs. The DCM for pursuit was based on predictive coding and active inference, and predicts subjects' eye movements based on their (subjective) Bayesian beliefs about target (and eye) motion. The precisions of these hierarchical beliefs can be inferred from behavioural (pursuit) data. The DCM for MEG data used an established biophysical model of neuronal activity that includes parameters for the gain of superficial pyramidal cells, which is thought to encode precision at the neuronal level. Previous studies (using DCM of pursuit data) suggest that noisy target motion increases subjective precision at the sensory level: i.e., subjects attend more to the target's sensory attributes. We compared (noisy motion-induced) changes in the synaptic gain based on the modelling of MEG data to changes in subjective precision estimated using the pursuit data. We demonstrate that imprecise target motion increases the gain of superficial pyramidal cells in V1 (across subjects). Furthermore, increases in sensory precision – inferred by our behavioural DCM – correlate with the increase in gain in V1, across subjects. This is a step towards a fully integrated model of brain computations, cortical responses and behaviour that may provide a useful clinical tool in conditions like schizophrenia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background This paper introduces a new paradigm that allows one to quantify the Bayesian beliefs evidenced by subjects during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects’ eye tracking responses to a partially occluded sinusoidal target were recorded non-invasively and averaged. These response averages were then analysed using dynamic causal modelling (DCM). In DCM, observed responses are modelled using biologically plausible generative or forward models – usually biophysical models of neuronal activity. New method Our key innovation is to use a generative model based on a normative (Bayes-optimal) model of active inference to model oculomotor pursuit in terms of subjects’ beliefs about how visual targets move and how their oculomotor system responds. Our aim here is to establish the face validity of the approach, by manipulating the content and precision of sensory information – and examining the ensuing changes in the subjects’ implicit beliefs. These beliefs are inferred from their eye movements using the normative model. Results We show that on average, subjects respond to an increase in the ‘noise’ of target motion by increasing sensory precision in their models of the target trajectory. In other words, they attend more to the sensory attributes of a noisier stimulus. Conversely, subjects only change kinetic parameters in their model but not precision, in response to increased target speed. Conclusions Using this technique one can estimate the precisions of subjects’ hierarchical Bayesian beliefs about target motion. We hope to apply this paradigm to subjects with schizophrenia, whose pursuit abnormalities may result from the abnormal encoding of precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, there has been a lot of interest in characterising the connectivity of resting state brain networks. Most of the literature uses functional connectivity to examine these intrinsic brain networks. Functional connectivity has well documented limitations because of its inherent inability to identify causal interactions. Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) is a framework that allows for the identification of the causal (directed) connections among neuronal systems — known as effective connectivity. This technical note addresses the validity of a recently proposed DCM for resting state fMRI – as measured in terms of their complex cross spectral density – referred to as spectral DCM. Spectral DCM differs from (the alternative) stochastic DCM by parameterising neuronal fluctuations using scale free (i.e., power law) forms, rendering the stochastic model of neuronal activity deterministic. Spectral DCM not only furnishes an efficient estimation of model parameters but also enables the detection of group differences in effective connectivity, the form and amplitude of the neuronal fluctuations or both. We compare and contrast spectral and stochastic DCM models with endogenous fluctuations or state noise on hidden states. We used simulated data to first establish the face validity of both schemes and show that they can recover the model (and its parameters) that generated the data. We then used Monte Carlo simulations to assess the accuracy of both schemes in terms of their root mean square error. We also simulated group differences and compared the ability of spectral and stochastic DCMs to identify these differences. We show that spectral DCM was not only more accurate but also more sensitive to group differences. Finally, we performed a comparative evaluation using real resting state fMRI data (from an open access resource) to study the functional integration within default mode network using spectral and stochastic DCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exact mechanisms whereby the cholinergic neurotransmitter system contributes to attentional processing remain poorly under-stood. Here, we applied computational modeling to psychophysical data (obtained from a spatial attention task) under a psychophar-macological challenge with the cholinesterase inhibitor galantamine (Reminyl). This allowed us to characterize the cholinergic modulation of selective attention formally, in terms of hierarchical Bayesian inference. In a placebo-controlled, within-subject, crossover design, 16 healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing task in which the proportion of validly and invalidly cued targets (percentage of cue validity, % CV) changed over time. Saccadic response speeds were used to estimate the param-eters of a hierarchical Bayesian model to test whether cholinergic stimulation affected the trial-wise updating of probabilistic beliefs that underlie the allocation of attention or whether galantamine changed the mapping from those beliefs to subsequent eye movements. Behaviorally, galantamine led to a greater influence of probabilistic context (% CV) on response speed than placebo. Crucially, compu-tational modeling suggested this effect was due to an increase in the rate of belief updating about cue validity (as opposed to the increased sensitivity of behavioral responses to those beliefs). We discuss these findings with respect to cholinergic effects on hierarchical cortical processing and in relation to the encoding of expected uncertainty or precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] People may use Bayesian inference to update their own self-representation. [•] Self- and other-representations may help predict outcomes of social interactions. [•] The value of an outcome is essentially the prior belief that it can be achieved. [•] ‘Active inference’ uses free-energy-minimization to achieve desirable outcomes. [•] A positive self-representation may be a desirable outcome of active inference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mismatch negativity (MMN) is a differential brain response to violations of learned regularities. It has been used to demonstrate that the brain learns the statistical structure of its environment and predicts future sensory inputs. However, the algorithmic nature of these computations and the underlying neurobiological implementation remain controversial. This article introduces a mathematical framework with which competing ideas about the computational quantities indexed by MMN responses can be formalized and tested against single-trial EEG data. This framework was applied to five major theories of the MMN, comparing their ability to explain trial-by-trial changes in MMN amplitude. Three of these theories (predictive coding, model adjustment, and novelty detection) were formalized by linking the MMN to different manifestations of the same computational mechanism: approximate Bayesian inference according to the free-energy principle. We thereby propose a unifying view on three distinct theories of the MMN. The relative plausibility of each theory was assessed against empirical single-trial MMN amplitudes acquired from eight healthy volunteers in a roving oddball experiment. Models based on the free-energy principle provided more plausible explanations of trial-by-trial changes in MMN amplitude than models representing the two more traditional theories (change detection and adaptation). Our results suggest that the MMN reflects approximate Bayesian learning of sensory regularities, and that the MMN-generating process adjusts a probabilistic model of the environment according to prediction errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This Perspective considers the influential notion of a canonical (cortical) microcircuit in light of recent theories about neuronal processing. Specifically, we conciliate quantitative studies of microcircuitry and the functional logic of neuronal computations. We revisit the established idea that message passing among hierarchical cortical areas implements a form of Bayesian inference—paying careful attention to the implications for intrinsic connections among neuronal populations. By deriving canonical forms for these computations, one can associate specific neuronal populations with specific computational roles. This analysis discloses a remarkable correspondence between the microcircuitry of the cortical column and the connectivity implied by predictive coding. Furthermore, it provides some intuitive insights into the functional asymmetries between feedforward and feedback connections and the characteristic frequencies over which they operate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a neurobiological account of symptoms that have been called ‘hysterical’, ‘psychogenic’ or ‘medically unexplained’, which we will call functional motor and sensory symptoms. We use a neurobiologically informed model of hierarchical Bayesian inference in the brain to explain functional motor and sensory symptoms in terms of perception and action arising from inference based on prior beliefs and sensory information. This explanation exploits the key balance between prior beliefs and sensory evidence that is mediated by (body focused) attention, symptom expectations, physical and emotional experiences and beliefs about illness. Crucially, this furnishes an explanation at three different levels: (i) underlying neuromodulatory (synaptic) mechanisms; (ii) cognitive and experiential processes (attention and attribution of agency); and (iii) formal computations that underlie perceptual inference (representation of uncertainty or precision). Our explanation involves primary and secondary failures of inference; the primary failure is the (autonomous) emergence of a percept or belief that is held with undue certainty (precision) following top-down attentional modulation of synaptic gain. This belief can constitute a sensory percept (or its absence) or induce movement (or its absence). The secondary failure of inference is when the ensuing percept (and any somatosensory consequences) is falsely inferred to be a symptom to explain why its content was not predicted by the source of attentional modulation. This account accommodates several fundamental observations about functional motor and sensory symptoms, including: (i) their induction and maintenance by attention; (ii) their modification by expectation, prior experience and cultural beliefs and (iii) their involuntary and symptomatic nature. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Attentional orientation to a spatial cue and reorientation--after invalid cueing--are mediated by two distinct networks in the human brain. A bilateral dorsal frontoparietal network, comprising the intraparietal sulcus (IPS) and the frontal eye fields (FEF), controls the voluntary deployment of attention and may modulate visual cortex in preparation for upcoming stimulation. In contrast, reorienting attention to invalidly cued targets engages a right-lateralized ventral frontoparietal network comprising the temporoparietal junction (TPJ) and ventral frontal cortex. The present fMRI study investigated the functional architecture of these two attentional systems by characterizing effective connectivity during lateralized orienting and reorienting of attention, respectively. Subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing paradigm. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) of regional responses in the dorsal and ventral network, identified in a conventional (SPM) whole-brain analysis, was used to compare different functional architectures. Bayesian model selection showed that top-down connections from left and right IPS to left and right visual cortex, respectively, were modulated by the direction of attention. Moreover, model evidence was highest for a model with directed influences from bilateral IPS to FEF, and reciprocal coupling between right and left FEF. Invalid cueing enhanced forward connections from visual areas to right TPJ, and directed influences from right TPJ to right IPS and IFG (inferior frontal gyrus). These findings shed further light on the functional organization of the dorsal and ventral attentional network and support a context-sensitive lateralization in the top-down (backward) mediation of attentional orienting and the bottom-up (forward) effects of invalid cueing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The contribution of dopamine to working memory has been studied extensively []. Here, we exploited its well characterized effects [] to validate a novel human in vivo assay of ongoing synaptic [] processing. We obtained magnetoencephalographic (MEG) measurements from subjects performing a working memory (WM) task during a within-subject, placebo-controlled, pharmacological (dopaminergic) challenge. By applying dynamic causal modeling (DCM), a Bayesian technique for neuronal system identification [], to MEG signals from prefrontal cortex, we demonstrate that it is possible to infer synaptic signaling by specific ion channels in behaving humans. Dopamine-induced enhancement of WM performance was accompanied by significant changes in MEG signal power, and a DCM assay disclosed related changes in synaptic signaling. By estimating the contribution of ionotropic receptors (AMPA, NMDA, and GABAA) to the observed spectral response, we demonstrate changes in their function commensurate with the synaptic effects of dopamine. The validity of our model is reinforced by a striking quantitative effect on NMDA and AMPA receptor signaling that predicted behavioral improvement over subjects. Our results provide a proof-of-principle demonstration of a novel framework for inferring, noninvasively, neuromodulatory influences on ion channel signaling via specific ionotropic receptors, providing a window on the hidden synaptic events mediating discrete psychological processes in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a generic approach that can be used to infer how subjects make optimal decisions under uncertainty. This approach induces a distinction between a subject's perceptual model, which underlies the representation of a hidden ''state of affairs'' and a response model, which predicts the ensuing behavioural (or neurophysiological) responses to those inputs. We start with the premise that subjects continuously update a probabilistic representation of the causes of their sensory inputs to optimise their behaviour. In addition, subjects have preferences or goals that guide decisions about actions given the above uncertain representation of these hidden causes or state of affairs. From a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective, uncertain representations are so-called ''posterior'' beliefs, which are influenced by subjective ''prior'' beliefs. Preferences and goals are encoded through a ''loss'' (or ''utility'') function, which measures the cost incurred by making any admissible decision for any given (hidden) state of affair. By assuming that subjects make optimal decisions on the basis of updated (posterior) beliefs and utility (loss) functions, one can evaluate the likelihood of observed behaviour. Critically, this enables one to ''observe the observer'', i.e. identify (context- or subject-dependent) prior beliefs and utility-functions using psychophysical or neurophysiological measures. In this paper, we describe the main theoretical components of this meta-Bayesian approach (i.e. a Bayesian treatment of Bayesian decision theoretic predictions). In a companion paper ('Observing the observer (II): deciding when to decide'), we describe a concrete implementation of it and demonstrate its utility by applying it to simulated and real reaction time data from an associative learning task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This ''best model'' approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Functional integration in the brain rests on anatomical connectivity (the presence of axonal connections) and effective connectivity (the causal influences mediated by these connections). The deployment of anatomical connections provides important constraints on effective connectivity, but does not fully determine it, because synaptic connections can be expressed functionally in a dynamic and context-dependent fashion. Although it is generally assumed that anatomical connectivity data is important to guide the construction of neurobiologically realistic models of effective connectivity; the degree to which these models actually profit from anatomical constraints has not yet been formally investigated. Here, we use diffusion weighted imaging and probabilistic tractography to specify anatomically informed priors for dynamic causal models (DCMs) of fMRI data. We constructed 64 alternative DCMs, which embodied different mappings between the probability of an anatomical connection and the prior variance of the corresponding of effective connectivity, and fitted them to empirical fMRI data from 12 healthy subjects. Using Bayesian model selection, we show that the best model is one in which anatomical probability increases the prior variance of effective connectivity parameters in a nonlinear and monotonic (sigmoidal) fashion. This means that the higher the likelihood that a given connection exists anatomically, the larger one should set the prior variance of the corresponding coupling parameter; hence making it easier for the parameter to deviate from zero and represent a strong effective connection. To our knowledge, this study provides the first formal evidence that probabilistic knowledge of anatomical connectivity can improve models of functional integration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Bayesian model selection (BMS) is a powerful method for determining the most likely among a set of competing hypotheses about the mechanisms that generated observed data. BMS has recently found widespread application in neuroimaging, particularly in the context of dynamic causal modelling (DCM). However, so far, combining BMS results from several subjects has relied on simple (fixed effects) metrics, e.g. the group Bayes factor (GBF), that do not account for group heterogeneity or outliers. In this paper, we compare the GBF with two random effects methods for BMS at the between-subject or group level. These methods provide inference on model-space using a classical and Bayesian perspective respectively. First, a classical (frequentist) approach uses the log model evidence as a subject-specific summary statistic. This enables one to use analysis of variance to test for differences in log-evidences over models, relative to inter-subject differences. We then consider the same problem in Bayesian terms and describe a novel hierarchical model, which is optimised to furnish a probability density on the models themselves. This new variational Bayes method rests on treating the model as a random variable and estimating the parameters of a Dirichlet distribution which describes the probabilities for all models considered. These probabilities then define a multinomial distribution over model space, allowing one to compute how likely it is that a specific model generated the data of a randomly chosen subject as well as the exceedance probability of one model being more likely than any other model. Using empirical and synthetic data, we show that optimising a conditional density of the model probabilities, given the log-evidences for each model over subjects, is more informative and appropriate than both the GBF and frequentist tests of the log-evidences. In particular, we found that the hierarchical Bayesian approach is considerably more robust than either of the other approaches in the presence of outliers. We expect that this new random effects method will prove useful for a wide range of group studies, not only in the context of DCM, but also for other modelling endeavours, e.g. comparing different source reconstruction methods for EEG/MEG or selecting among competing computational models of learning and decision-making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The neurophysiology of eye movements has been studied extensively, and several computational models have been proposed for decision-making processes that underlie the generation of eye movements towards a visual stimulus in a situation of uncertainty. One class of models, known as linear rise-to-threshold models, provides an economical, yet broadly applicable, explanation for the observed variability in the latency between the onset of a peripheral visual target and the saccade towards it. So far, however, these models do not account for the dynamics of learning across a sequence of stimuli, and they do not apply to situations in which subjects are exposed to events with conditional probabilities. In this methodological paper, we extend the class of linear rise-to-threshold models to address these limitations. Specifically, we reformulate previous models in terms of a generative, hierarchical model, by combining two separate sub-models that account for the interplay between learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials. We derive a maximum-likelihood scheme for parameter estimation as well as model comparison on the basis of log likelihood ratios. The utility of the integrated model is demonstrated by applying it to empirical saccade data acquired from three healthy subjects. Model comparison is used (i) to show that eye movements do not only reflect marginal but also conditional probabilities of target locations, and (ii) to reveal subject-specific learning profiles over trials. These individual learning profiles are sufficiently distinct that test samples can be successfully mapped onto the correct subject by a naïve Bayes classifier. Altogether, our approach extends the class of linear rise-to-threshold models of saccadic decision making, overcomes some of their previous limitations, and enables statistical inference both about learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Complex processes resulting from interaction of multiple elements can rarely be understood by analytical scientific approaches alone; additional, mathematical models of system dynamics are required. This insight, which disciplines like physics have embraced for a long time already, is gradually gaining importance in the study of cognitive processes by functional neuroimaging. In this field, causal mechanisms in neural systems are described in terms of effective connectivity. Recently, dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was introduced as a generic method to estimate effective connectivity from neuroimaging data in a Bayesian fashion. One of the key advantages of DCM over previous methods is that it distinguishes between neural state equations and modality-specific forward models that translate neural activity into a measured signal. Another strength is its natural relation to Bayesian model selection (BMS) procedures. In this article, we review the conceptual and mathematical basis of DCM and its implementation for functional magnetic resonance imaging data and event-related potentials. After introducing the application of BMS in the context of DCM, we conclude with an outlook to future extensions of DCM. These extensions are guided by the long-term goal of using dynamic system models for pharmacological and clinical applications, particularly with regard to synaptic plasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To use Electroencephalography (EEG) and Magnetoencephalography (MEG) as functional brain 3D imaging techniques, identifiable distributed source models are required. The reconstruction of EEG/MEG sources rests on inverting these models and is ill-posed because the solution does not depend continuously on the data and there is no unique solution in the absence of prior information or constraints. We have described a general framework that can account for several priors in a common inverse solution. An empirical Bayesian framework based on hierarchical linear models was proposed for the analysis of functional neuroimaging data [Friston, K., Penny, W., Phillips, C., Kiebel, S., Hinton, G., Ashburner, J., 2002. Classical and Bayesian inference in neuroimaging: theory. NeuroImage 16, 465–483] and was evaluated recently in the context of EEG [Phillips, C., Mattout, J., Rugg, M.D., Maquet, P., Friston, K., 2005. An empirical Bayesian solution to the source reconstruction problem in EEG. NeuroImage 24, 997–1011]. The approach consists of estimating the expected source distribution and its conditional variance that is constrained by an empirically determined mixture of prior variance components. Estimation uses Expectation-Maximization (EM) to give the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (ReML) estimate of the variance components (in terms of hyperparameters) and the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimate of the source parameters. In this paper, we extend the framework to compare different combinations of priors, using a second level of inference based on Bayesian model selection. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, ReML is first compared to a classic Weighted Minimum Norm (WMN) solution under a single constraint. Then, the ReML estimates are evaluated using various combinations of priors. Both standard criterion and ROC-based measures were used to assess localization and detection performance. The empirical Bayes approach proved useful as: (1) ReML was significantly better than WMN for single priors; (2) valid location priors improved ReML source localization; (3) invalid location priors did not significantly impair performance. Finally, we show how model selection, using the log-evidence, can be used to select the best combination of priors. This enables a global strategy for multiple prior-based regularization of the MEG/EEG source reconstruction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]