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In this paper, an attempt has been made to explore a new delayed epidemiological model assuming that the disease is transmitted among the susceptible population and possessing nonlinear incidence function along with a saturated treatment rate. Due attention is paid to the positivity and boundedness of the solutions and the bifurcation of the dynamical system as well. Basic reproduction number is being calculated, and considering the latent period as a bifurcation parameter, it has been examined that a Hopf-bifurcation occurs near the endemic equilibrium point while the parameter attains critical values. We have also discussed the stability and direction of Hopf-bifurcation near the endemic equilibrium point, the global stability analysis and the optimal control theory. We conclude that the system reveals chaotic dynamics through a specific time-delay value. Numerical simulations are being performed in order to explain the accuracy and effectiveness of the acquired theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Salton Sea (a destination resort) is to be saved from being converted into a skeleton-filled wasteland. The critical amount of water flowing into the sea to maintain its level and salinity has been diverted since January 2018. This will lead to shrinking volumes and increasing salinities. Ecological consequences and public health impacts of altered conditions will be phenomenal. We design and analyze a minimal eco-epidemiological model to figure out future journey of this sea; a way station for fish-eating migratory birds. The mathematical model has been assembled in terms of prey-predator interaction. The salient feature of the proposed model is its seasonally varying contact rate which represents rate of conversion of susceptible fishes into infectives. We have analytically investigated the global stability, disease persistence and periodic solutions of the proposed model system. Susceptible prey-induced periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable when R ̄ 0 1 < 1 , otherwise unstable and hence disease persists for R ̄ 0 1 > 1. Global stability and Hopf bifurcation (HB) analysis help us extract parameter values to explore the dynamical behavior of the model system. Two-dimensional parameter scans and bifurcation diagrams reveal that the model displays propensity towards chaotic dynamics, which is associated with extinction-sized population densities. In the presence of stochastic external forces, this implies extinction of most of the fish species. This, in turn, suggests that resident birds will have to migrate to other destinations. The fish-eating migratory birds will be forced to switch over to invertebrates. Ecological consequences and public health impacts of this transition would be severe. Conservation groups are solicited to draw attention of the government to avert this impounding danger. It is important to plan for an ecosystem-wide transition such that impacts on birds and on human inhabitants living adjacent to the shrinking and salinizing sea are minimized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we have formulated an e-epidemic energy efficient susceptible-infected--terminally infected-recovered (SITR) model to analyse the attacking behaviour of worms in wireless sensor network (WSN) using cyrtoid type functional response. In this model, once a sensor node has been attacked by the worms, the terminally infected node spreads the worms to its neighbouring nodes using normal communications, which further spread it to their neighbouring nodes and the process continues. To tackle this issue, we proposed an SITR model by considering the sleep mode concept of WSN in which the operational capabilities and power consumption of the motes decreases. Boundedness, existence of equilibrium points, stability and bifurcation analysis are analysed for the proposed model system. Stability and direction of Hopf-bifurcation are also obtained for endemic equilibrium point using center manifold theorem. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out that supports the analytical findings. The impact of the control parameters like transmission rate (β), inter-nodes interference coefficient (θ1) and intrinsic growth rate (r1) on the dynamics of the model system are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have proposed a three-species hybrid food chain model with multiple time delays. The interaction between the prey and the middle predator follows Holling type (HT) II functional response, while the interaction between the top predator and its only food, the middle predator, is taken as a general functional response with the mutual interference schemes, such as Crowley–Martin (CM), Beddington–DeAngelis (BD) and Hassell–Varley (HV) functional responses. We analyse the model system which employs HT II and CM functional responses, and discuss the local and global stability analyses of the coexisting equilibrium solution. The effect of gestation delay on both the middle and top predator has been studied. The dynamics of model systems are affected by both factors: gestation delay and the form of functional responses considered. The theoretical results are supported by appropriate numerical simulations, and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for biologically feasible parameter values. It is interesting from the application point of view to show how an individual delay changes the dynamics of the model system depending on the form of functional response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of the present paper is to consider the dynamical analysis of a three dimensional prey-predator model within deterministic environment and the influence of environmental driving forces on the dynamics of the model system. For the deterministic model we have obtained the local asymptotic stability criteria of various equilibrium points and derived the condition for the existence of small amplitude periodic solution bifurcating from interior equilibrium point through Hopf bifurcation. We have obtained the parametric domain within which the model system exhibit chaotic oscillation and determined the route to chaos. Finally, we have shown that chaotic oscillation disappears in presence of environmental driving forces which actually affect the deterministic growth rates. These driving forces are unable to drive the system from a regime of deterministic chaos towards a stochastically stable situation. The stochastic stability results are discussed in terms of the stability of first and second order moments. Exhaustive numerical simulations are carried out to validate the analytical findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A model food chain involving a specialist and a generalist predator is proposed and studied. One of the salient features of this model food chain is that it combines both the schemes (Volterra and Leslie) of modeling predator–prey interaction in one system in such a way that the demerits of these individual formulations are suppressed and the resulting model system represents a common unit of real world food webs. The stability analysis of the proposed model is carried out. The Hopf bifurcation conditions of the positive equilibrium point are established. Our numerical computations show that chaotic dynamics is sensitive to changes in values of parameters measuring attributes of either interacting populations or their environments. Two dimensional parameter scans suggest that the model food chain displays short-term recurrent chaos. This can be regarded as a plausible explanation for why it has been so difficult to detect deterministic chaos in natural populations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this work, an attempt is made to understand the dynamics of a modified Leslie-Gower model with nonlinear harvesting and Holling type-IV functional response. We study the model system using qualitative analysis, bifurcation theory and singular optimal control. We show that the interior equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable and the system under goes a Hopf bifurcation with respect to the ratio of intrinsic growth of the predator and prey population as bifurcation parameter. The existence of bionomic equilibria is analyzed and the singular optimal control strategy is characterized using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The existence of limit cycles appearing through local Hopf bifurcation and its stability is also examined and validated numerically by computing the first Lyapunov number. Optimal singular equilibrium points are obtained numerically for various discount rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]