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As the climate is warming up and climate disasters occur more frequently, China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets are gaining attention, with provinces starting to set carbon peak targets and constantly exploring low carbon economic development opportunities. However, the existing evaluation index system mainly focuses on low carbon cities and green cities, and there is no evaluation index system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study adopts a combination of theoretical and empirical research and draws on domestic and international research results to construct the first index system for evaluating China's provincial carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The evaluation index system includes 18 indicators from three dimensions: climate ambition, low carbon status, and emissions trends. Using this index system, we calculated the carbon peak and carbon neutrality indices of 30 Chinese provinces. Further, the 30 provinces were classified into six categories, and corresponding policy recommendations for achieving the "Dual carbon" targets were put forward. The evaluation index system constructed in this paper can provide a reference for future carbon peak and carbon neutrality assessments. By disclosing the integrated index of each province, we hope to effectively curb the increasing local carbon emissions; avert inaction in areas with good natural endowments; and motivate the advancement of the latter, to boost the implementation of the "Dual carbon" targets coherently for the whole country. [Display omitted] • An integrated evaluation system on China's Provincial "Dual carbon" was proposed. • 30 provinces in mainland China were ranked based on the integrated index. • 6 groups were classified to show provincial differences on dual carbon performance. • Policy recommendations to fulfill China's climate commitment were put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has committed to ambitious targets to reduce its carbon emissions in the next decades, in order to combat climate change and improve the environment. The realization of the targets depends on the fair and effective mitigation plans of all provinces. However, with varying ecological and environmental conditions and social-economic development, it is a critical issue to quantify the provinces' efforts equally. This paper proposed a comprehensive fE index in coordinating ecology, equity and economy, by accounting for carbon emissions and sinks to characterize provincial carbon emission status in China, from 2000 to 2017, which shows a spatial pattern of "boundary high, central low". The provinces with higher fE value (>1.5) in boundary areas can be seen as "relative equality" provinces with good ecology circulation, equity and economic efficiency. The provinces with lower fE value (<0.7) in central areas around Bohai Bay are regarded as "severe inequality" provinces, and are identified as the hot-spot provinces, which have emitted more CO2 than their equity share by occupying the carbon emission space of other provinces in recent decades. These results could provide a reference for a provincial guide for carbon reduction and sustainable development of the low-carbon economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]