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A reduction in the CO2 emission intensity (ton per gross domestic product) from a base year to a target year with different rates of reduction in each individual year can yield different cumulative CO2 emissions over time, which could have different effects on the climate. In this paper, an indicator is proposed to measure the extent to which the cumulative CO2 emissions are generated by a specific reduction trajectory of CO2 emission intensity, especially for emerging economies with a relatively higher economic growth rate. The proposed indicator is important for less-developed countries and regions in which economic growth is heavily reliant on energy and in which significant potential exists for improvement of energy efficiency. The indicator is applied to evaluate the CO2 emission reduction performance in China's 12th Five-Year Plan period, and the result is not encouraging, especially when the likely gap between the energy conservation goals and temperature goals is further examined. Mitigation goals should be set by considering not only the performance in the final year, but also the reduction in cumulative emissions over the evaluation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mid- and long-term energy requirements and greenhouse gas emission scenarios for China were presented by using the Integrated Policy Assessment Model of China. Technologies are the key component to reach a low carbon future. Technologies are identified with the scenario analysis. In order to realize the low carbon future, a technology roadmap was presented to reach the emission reduction up to 2050 in China. Twenty-eight key technologies are given in the paper for the technology roadmap, presenting learning curves. With full adoption of these key technologies, we do see ample opportunities for China to make the emission stable after 2020, without a large increase, and even start to have a deep reduction after 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]