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This paper summarizes the main elements of four IPY projects that examine the Arctic Atmosphere. All four projects focus on present conditions with a view to anticipating possible climate change. All four investigate the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land interfacial surfaces. One project uses computer models to simulate the dynamics of the Arctic atmosphere, storms, and their interactions with the ocean and ice interface. Another project uses statistical methods to infer transports of pollutants as simulated in large-scale global atmospheric and oceanic models verifying results with available observations. A third project focuses on measurements of pollutants at the ice-ocean-atmosphere interface, with reference to model estimates. The fourth project is concerned with multiple, high accuracy measurements at Eureka in the Canadian Archipelago. While these projects are distinctly different, led by different teams and interdisciplinary collaborators, with different technical approaches and methodologies, and differing objectives, they all strive to understand the processes of the Arctic atmosphere and climate, and to lay the basis for projections of future changes. Key findings include: • Decreased sea ice leads to more intense storms, higher winds, reduced surface albedo, increased surface air temperature, and enhanced vertical mixing in the upper ocean. • Arctic warming may affect toxic chemicals by remobilizing persistent organic pollutants and augmenting mercury deposition/retention in the environment. • Changes in sea ice can dramatically change processes in and at the ice surface related to ozone, mercury and bromine oxide and related chemical/physical properties. • Structure and properties of the Arctic atmospheric-troposphere to stratosphere-and tracking of transport of pollution and smoke plumes from mid-latitudes to the poles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores two issues that have been receiving increasing attention in recent decades, climate change adaptation and natural disaster risk reduction. An examination of the similarities and differences between them reveals important linkages but also significant differences, including the spectrum of threats, time and spatial scales, the importance of local versus global processes, how risks are perceived, and degree of uncertainty. Using a risk perspective to analyze these issues, preferential strategies emerge related to choices of being proactive, reactive, or emphasizing risk management as opposed to the precautionary principle. The policy implications of this analysis are then explored, using Canada as a case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Salt marshes in the St. Lawrence Estuary are subjected to strong seasonal variations with sub-arctic winter conditions. The present paper explores sedimentary processes in the Pointe-aux-Épinettes marsh during the ice-free period. Currents, waves, suspended sediment, and sedimentation rates have been measured in June, August and October 2009. Vegetation growth was monitored during one year on a monthly basis to understand the seasonal impact on the marsh. Vegetation attenuates currents and waves, but this attenuation changes over the year as vegetation disappears along winter. Results show that suspended sediment transport and deposition are controlled by vegetation, wave height, currents, distance from the marsh edge and distance from sediment sources. Suspended sediment concentrations and sedimentation rates were significantly correlated to wave height, highlighting the importance of waves for sediment resuspension transport. Transport was lowest in August when vegetation was high and wave occurrence low. However, vegetation growth didn''t change fundamentally sediments dynamic of the marsh. Within one tide, an important part of sediment transport is only local within the marsh, as shown by the maximum sedimentation rates occurring near unvegetated areas of the marsh. Data provide a spatial understanding of summer sedimentology on cold climate marshes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: At the beginning of the 21st century imports of agricultural and food commodities have become a major part of many nations’ food baskets. Indeed the global food system has several merits for nations, businesses and individual consumers’ well-being. However, as increasing evidence suggests that we are approaching an era of climate change and scarcity of cheap energy sources the sustainability of that system must be examined. One part of any food commodity chain is its ‘food miles’ – the distance the commodity travels from point of production to point of consumption, the required energy and resulting emissions. This paper presents a 1 year ‘snapshot’ of Canada’s total import related food miles. It presents an analysis of the distance imported foods traveled from around the world to major points of consumption in Canada and documents the equivalent carbon dioxide emissions related to those imports. It presents both a macro scale picture of the equivalent emissions related to transportation of imported food and a micro scale picture which focuses on specific commodities consumed in various parts of the country. It then discusses policy implications for food sustainability. Overall the research highlights that about 30% of the agricultural and food commodities consumed in Canada are imported, resulting in ‘food miles’ of over 61billiontonneskm, leading to annual emissions of 3.3 million metric tonnes of CO2. Of the various agriculture and food commodities studied, fruits and vegetables had the highest food miles related emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of proposed Canadian climate change mitigation policies (discounting and carbon pricing) on cost, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the single-objective design/expansion optimization of the Amherstview water distribution system in Amherstview, Ontario, Canada. The single-objective optimization problem is solved with the elitist genetic algorithm (EGA). The optimization approach is used in a parametric analysis to examine the impact of discounting and carbon pricing on GHG reductions for cement-mortar ductile iron and polyvinyl chloride pipe materials. Preliminary results indicate that the discount rate and carbon prices investigated had no significant influence on energy use and GHG mass in the Amherstview system and did not meet the emission-reduction targets set by the Canadian government. This result was attributed to a number of factors, including adequately installed hydraulic capacity in the Amherstview system, the use of a time-declining GHG emission intensity factor, and the scope of the expansion problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper investigates the effects of model structure and parameter equifinality on the uncertainty related to hydrological modelling in climate change impact studies. The study is conducted on a snow-dominated watershed located in the southern part of the province of Quebec (Canada). Hydrological model structure uncertainty is examined through the use of two very different simulation tools, one lumped conceptual model and one spatially-distributed physically-based model. Parameter equifinality is examined by performing multiple automatic calibrations with both hydrological models. The analysis is first carried out under recent past climate and then under modified climate conditions following two contrasted projections that are analysed separately. The delta change approach is used to build the two climate projections. Overall, this study reveals that the impact of hydrological model structure uncertainty is more significant than the effect of parameter uncertainty, under recent past climate as well as future climate conditions. Ultimately, the use of hydrological models with different levels of complexity should be considered as part of the global uncertainty related to hydrological model structure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Plant phenology networks of citizen scientists have a long history and have recently contributed to our understanding of climate change effects on ecosystems. This paper describes the development of the Alberta and Canada PlantWatch programs, which coordinate networks of citizen scientists who track spring development timing for common plants. Tracking spring phenology is highly suited to volunteers and, with effective volunteer management, observers will stay loyal to a phenology program for many years. Over two decades beginning in 1987, Alberta PlantWatch volunteers reported 47,000 records, the majority contributed by observers who participated for more than 9 years. We present a quantitative analysis of factors that determine the quality of this phenological data and explore sources of variation. Our goal is to help those who wish to initiate new observer networks with an analysis of the effectiveness of program protocols including selected plant species and bloom stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visual communication is a critical but frequently under-estimated contributor to the ‘social and cultural life’ of environmental issues. This paper uses both content and discourse analysis to examine how visual communication is deployed in print media coverage of climate change issues in Canada. The Canadian case is internationally significant, given that Canada ratified the Kyoto Protocol but has since become obstructionist on the global stage. Our analysis, which focuses on image-language interactions, leads us to conclude that climate change is being inconsistently narrated to Canadians in this regard. While the power of visual communication comes from its ability to blend fact and emotion, to engage audiences, and to add narrative complexity to linguistic claims (and vice versa), we find instead a profound disjuncture between images and text in climate change coverage. In this case, visual and linguistic communication tend to pull in different narrative directions, advancing unrelated and sometimes contradictory claims that frequently confuse different aspects and positions on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change-related disputes, which often include novel, complex, or politically sensitive matters, have experienced a mixed reception by the courts. Defendants both in Canada and the United States have raised the issue of justiciability-- the question of whether a matter is of the quality or state of being appropriate or suitable for review by a court--with some success in attempts to have these cases summarily dismissed. The author reviews the types of climate change cases that have been launched, examines the US and Canadian laws of justiciability, analyzes the paths in which the caselaw regarding justiciability in these countries is headed, and suggests how these developments will impact future climate change cases. This paper finds that Canadian courts may be increasingly using justiciability as a means to avoid addressing climate change issues--just as US courts may be beginning to take a more progressive approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about several papers discussed at a symposium held at Cleveland, Ohio from April 14-16, 2011 on the role and the relationship between the U.S. and Canada regarding energy development. The energy policy of the U.S. is set by the companies Exxon and British Petroleum Co. PLC. Information on the impact of the automotive sector on the climatic change and the development of energy is also presented.

Abstract: The Government of Canada, like many others around the world, has given much importance to biofuels to address some of its policy challenges: climate change and diversification of energy supply. To deal with the emissions, the Government plans to increase production and use of ethanol. This will have impacts on the Canadian economy. An input–output model of the Canadian economy is developed to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of the Ethanol production in Canada. Several modifications have been made in the Use and Make matrix of Canada, 2003. To consider biofuel sector in the Make and Use table of Canada 2003 we have included two new industries – biofuel and E10. The four new commodities have been entered in the list – ethanol, E10, DDG and CO2. The impact matrix is estimated from an input–output model that computes the direct plus indirect impacts on the Canadian economy, 2003. This model has been closed to the household sector in the economy by endogenizing this sector into the model. Various multipliers have also been estimated. A number of simulation exercises have also been attempted to study the implications of policies to reach the Kyoto target of Canada. Results show that the macroeconomic impact of ethanol sector leads to increase in industrial output and employment. The agriculture sector makes necessary adjustments to meet the demand for ethanol product. The petroleum industry is also going to be affected. The paper concludes with several policy suggestions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines the social networks of country food sharing in Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada, in light of our current understanding of the relationship between climate change and Arctic peoples. Most recent work on the impacts of climate change on Arctic peoples has tended to focus on conceptual frameworks appropriate for this field of inquiry or to document perceived threats of climate change. This research incorporates a social network approach to document the association between different economic strategies (full-time worker, part-time worker, hunter) and categories of kin. It demonstrates that the sharing patterns of hunters favor the cultivation of ties with distant and collateral kin, while those of wage earners favor ties with parents and siblings. These different affiliations point to different vulnerabilities to change. For example, hunters pursue a strategy that provides the flexibility and connections necessary for adapting to changing environmental circumstances but increases their vulnerability to economic and political changes that restrict their ability to generate cash. Wage workers, despite a steady income, are more vulnerable to environmental change as it affects traveling conditions, potential hazards, and hunting success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts has been given a lot of attention in the recent literature. It is generally assumed that the major sources of uncertainty are linked to General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gases Emissions Scenarios (GGES). However, other sources of uncertainty such as the choice of a downscaling method have been given less attention. This paper focuses on this issue by comparing six downscaling methods to investigate the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of a Canadian (Quebec province) river basin. The downscaling methods regroup dynamical and statistical approaches, including the change factor method and a weather generator-based approach. Future (2070–2099, 2085 horizon) hydrological regimes simulated with a hydrological model are compared to the reference period (1970–1999) using the average hydrograph, annual mean discharge, peak discharge and time to peak discharge as criteria. The results show that all downscaling methods suggest temperature increases over the basin for the 2085 horizon. The regression-based statistical methods predict a larger increase in autumn and winter temperatures. Predicted changes in precipitation are not as unequivocal as those of temperatures, they vary depending on the downscaling methods and seasons. There is a general increase in winter discharge (November–April) while decreases in summer discharge are predicted by most methods. Consistently with the large predicted increases in autumn and winter temperature, regression-based statistical methods show severe increases in winter flows and considerable reductions in peak discharge. Across all variables, a large uncertainty envelope was found to be associated with the choice of a downscaling method. This envelope was compared to the envelope originating from the choice of 28 climate change projections from a combination of seven GCMs and three GGES. Both uncertainty envelopes were similar, although the latter was slightly larger. The regression-based statistical downscaling methods contributed significantly to the uncertainty envelope. Overall, results indicate that climate change impact studies based on only one downscaling method should be interpreted with caution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Factors such as growth in human and livestock populations, climate change, and the globalization of trade are creating favourable conditions for the emergence of new and more complex public health threats. One Health (sometimes referred to as One World One Health) is an approach that considers complex public health threats through an integrated lens of animal, human and ecosystem health. Within the last five years, the One Health approach has been gaining momentum in the international and national community. This paper will focus on human population growth, food and water security and climate change as three factors that have a major influence on the emergence or re-emergence of disease and highlight the importance of facilitating understanding, integration and collaboration between the different sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from large industries the Canadian government proposed using a tradable emissions performance standard approach, where the intensity of emissions, rather than the absolute level, is regulated. Unlike a cap and trade system, an emissions performance standard does not guarantee a certain overall level of emission reductions, a fact that has led to significant criticism. However, because of the dynamics of performance standards, they may reduce concerns over reductions in international competitiveness in cases where a country has climate policies that are more aggressive than those of some of its trade partners. Likewise, a performance standard may mesh more efficiently with existing taxes and therefore cause less overall economic impact than an absolute cap and trade system. This paper considers the theoretical arguments for and against such a performance standard system and evaluates it in comparison to a cap and trade system using a dynamic general equilibrium model applied to Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Feedbacks between climate warming and fire have the potential to alter Arctic and sub-Arctic vegetation. In this paper we assess the effects and interactions of temperature and wildfire on plant communities across the transition between the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Location Mackenzie Delta region, Northwest Territories, Canada. Methods We sampled air temperatures, green alder ( Alnus viridis ssp. fruticosa) cover, growth, reproduction and age distributions, and overall plant community composition on burned and unburned sites across a latitudinal gradient. Results Mean summer temperature across the study area decreased by 3 °C per degree of increasing latitude (6 °C across the study area). In the northern part of the study area, where seed viability was low, alder was less dominant than at southern sites where seed viability was high. The age structure of alder populations across the temperature gradient was highly variable, except in the northern part of the forest–tundra transition, where populations were dominated by young individuals. Alder growth and reproduction were significantly greater on burned sites (38–51 years following fire) than on unburned sites. North to south across the temperature gradient, vegetation changed from a community dominated by dwarf shrubs and fruticose lichens to one characterized by black spruce ( Picea mariana), alder and willows ( Salix spp.). Regardless of the position along the temperature gradient, burned sites were dominated by tall shrubs. Main conclusions Temperature limitation of alder abundance and repro-duction, combined with evidence of recent recruitment on unburned sites, indicates that alder is likely to respond to increased temperature. Elevated alder growth and reproduction on burned sites shows that wildfire also has an important influence on alder population dynamics. The magnitude of alder’s response to fire, combined with observations that burns at the southern margin of the low Arctic are shrub dominated, suggest that increases in the frequency of wildfire have the potential to alter northern vegetation on decadal scales. By creating new seedbeds, fire provides opportunities for colonization that may facilitate the northward movement of tall shrubs. Feedbacks between the global climate system and low Arctic vegetation make understanding the long-term impact of increasing fire frequency critical to predicting the response of northern ecosystems to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Devon Island ice cap has been the subject of scientific study for almost half a century, beginning with the first mass balance measurements in 1961. Research on the ice cap was the first to investigate (1) the role of meltwater in seasonal ice-velocity variations on a polythermal Arctic ice cap, (2) the use of air temperature rather than net radiation as a proxy for the energy driving surface melt, and (3) the influence of the changing frequency of specific synoptic weather configurations on glacier melt and mass balance. Other research has included investigations of ice cap geometry, flow dynamics, and mass balance; ice core analyses for records of past climate and contaminant deposition; and studies of changes in ice cap area and volume and their relationship to surface mass balance and ice dynamics. Current research includes ground studies connected to efforts to calibrate and validate the radar altimeter that will be carried by the European Space Agency's (ESA) CryoSat2 satellite, and a major collaborative Canadian International Polar Year (IPY) project focused on the Belcher Glacier, on the northeast side of the ice cap, that examines hydrodynamics of large tidewater glaciers. This paper summarizes our current knowledge of the Devon Island ice cap and identifies some of the outstanding questions that continue to limit our understanding of climate-ice cap interactions in Arctic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a multidisciplinary modeling approach to quickly quantify climate change impacts on energy consumption, peak load, and load composition of residential and commercial buildings. This research focuses on addressing the impact of temperature changes on the building cooling load in ten major cities across the Western United States and Canada. Our results have shown that by the mid-century, building yearly energy consumption and peak load will increase in the Southwest. Moreover, the peak load months will spread out to not only the summer months but also spring and autumn months. The Pacific Northwest will experience more hot days in the summer months. The penetration levels of air-conditioning (a/c) systems in this region are likely to increase significantly over the years. As a result, some locations in the Pacific Northwest may be shifted from winter peaking to summer peaking. Overall, the Western U.S. grid may see more simultaneous peaks across the North and South in summer months. Increased cooling load will result in a significant increase in the motor load, which consumes more reactive power and requires stronger voltage support from the grid. This study suggests an increasing need for the industry to implement new technology to increase the efficiency of temperature-sensitive loads and apply proper protection and control to prevent possible adverse impacts of a/c motor loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Permafrost mounds covered by open or dense forests (or krummholz - stunted trees) correspond to the category of wooded palsas and wooded peat plateaux extensively distributed in wetlands of North America. Very few data exist on the origin and development of wooded palsas, in particular their inception during the Holocene and the structure and dynamics of their forest/krummholz cover over time. Aim: The main objective of this paper is to fill the gap of knowledge on the origin and structure of wooded palsas, with a focus on wooded palsas located at their range limit at the treeline in eastern Canada. Methods: Each of the nine sites studied was surveyed along a line transect to measure the topography, to record the vegetation cover, to infer the snow thickness and to measure the thickness of the active layer at the time of sampling. The size structure of the black spruce (Picea mariana) populations of three dense wooded palsas was described. Basal stem discs of living and dead Picea were recovered for age determination, except in one site where only dead stems were sampled. The minimum age of wooded palsas at each site was evaluated based on tree-ring dating of the oldest stems and radiocarbon dating of the organic layers. Results: The inception of wooded palsas occurred during two principal periods of permafrost expansion as shown by the combined tree-ring and radiocarbon dates obtained for each of the nine studied sites. Three wooded palsas formed between 750 and 1000 AD, whereas the inception of the other palsas occurred during the 1500s. The up-thrusting of the wetland surface associated with permafrost growth facilitated tree establishment more intensively during the first period than during the second period when full Little Ice Age conditions prevailed in wind-exposed peatlands. Conclusions: The maintenance of a permafrost mound under forest cover is a rare situation in northern environments, and wooded palsas in eastern Canada form peculiar ecosystems where forest and permafrost coexist; these have survived over the last 500 to 1000 years. It is believed that the inception of wooded palsas was facilitated during a prolonged period of snow-poor winter conditions. Tree establishment was possible due to well-drained soil conditions associated with palsa up-thrusting. Although thicker snowpack preventing deeper frost penetration into the soil is maintained by the development of a forest/krummholz cover, wooded palsas at the treeline can survive because of low annual temperatures, reduced solar radiation beneath the tree canopy, variable accumulation and duration of annual snowpack. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In recent years, climate change impacts on water resources sectors have been extensively documented. Anticipated changes range from more severe storms to more frequent floods and drought at regional scale. Pressure on water resources and hence on the environment will probably increase with the need of quality data for sustainable design of water resources projects. Therefore, for an optimal network design, hydrometric networks are to be reviewed periodically based on the information needs of the various end users and the perspective for future water resources development. This paper evaluates hydrometric networks to identify essential streamflow stations and critical areas (highly poor network density) within major watersheds across the different provinces of Canada using entropy theory. The method is applied to daily streamflow data and information coefficients such as marginal entropy, joint entropy and transinformation index are used for the identification of important stations as well as critical areas in the basin. The analysis results show that almost all Canadian main watersheds contain deficient hydrometric networks. The most deficient streamflow networks are identified in Alberta (North Saskatchewan, Oldman, and Red Deer basins), Northern Ontario (Hudson Bay basin), and the Northwest Territories. The information might prove to be helpful for decision makers to undertake cost-benefit analyses for hydrometric network updating in each region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying mobile actor networks of moving people, objects, images, and discourses, in conjunction with changing time-spaces, offers a unique opportunity to understand important, and yet relatively neglected, "relational material" dynamics of mobility. A key example of this phenomenon is the recontinentalization of Canada amidst dramatically changing articulations of the meanings and boundaries of the Canadian land-ice-ocean mass. A notable reason why Canada is being re-articulated in current times is the extensiveness of Arctic thawing. The reconfiguration of space and "motility" options in the Arctic constitutes an example of how "materiality and sociality produce themselves together." In this paper we examine the possibilities and risks connected to this recontinentalization of Canada's North. In exploring the past, present, and immediate future of this setting, we advance the paradigmatic view that Canada's changing Arctic is the key element in a process of transformation of Canada into a peninsular body encompassed within a larger archipelagic entity: a place more intimately attuned to its immense (and growing) coastal and insular routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine-scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle-attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed-wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter-based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle-damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern-based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long-range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north-east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground-based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long-range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine- and large-scale patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The health of the world''s oceans and their impact on global environmental and climate change make the development of cabled observing systems vital and timely as a data source and archive of unparalleled importance for new discoveries. The VENUS and NEPTUNE Canada observatories are on the forefront of a new generation of ocean science and technology. Funding of over $100M, principally from the Governments of Canada and BC, for these two observatories supports integrated ocean systems science at a regional scale enabled by new developments in powered sub-sea cable technology and in cyber-infrastructure that streams continuous real-time data to Internet-based web platforms. VENUS is a coastal observatory supporting two instrumented arrays in the Saanich Inlet, near Victoria, and in the Strait of Georgia, off Vancouver. NEPTUNE Canada is an 800km system on the Juan de Fuca Plate off the west coast of British Columbia, which will have five instrumented nodes in operation over the next 18 months. This paper describes the development and management of these two observatories, the principal research themes, and the applications of the research to public policy, economic development, and public education and outreach. Both observatories depend on partnerships with universities, government agencies, private sector companies, and NGOs. International collaboration is central to the development of the research programs, including partnerships with initiatives in the EU, US, Japan, Taiwan and China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recent northern vegetation changes caused by climate warming have been well documented, using experimental plot warming to examine vegetation-specific changes and satellite image data to examine overall trends. Previous remote sensing efforts have employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from AVHRR, whose 1 km to 8 km pixel size is too large for examination of broad scale vegetation-specific responses because of mixing within the pixel footprint. In this paper, we reconcile differences between field- and remote sensing-based approaches by using both medium-resolution (30 m) and coarse-resolution (1 km) data to study 20 years of vegetation-specific responses to northern climate warming (1986 to 2006). Trends are compared among vegetation communities from two separate Landsat classifications in Canada's eastern and western forest-tundra transition zone, as well as a 1 km AVHRR database recently developed over Canada. A comparison of absolute trends among mapped vegetation communities revealed lichen-dominated communities consistently exhibiting lower trends than those dominated by vascular plants, with both exhibiting increasing NDVI. Our results and those obtained from experimental warming suggest that the magnitude difference in NDVI increase between lichen and vascular vegetation is related to increasing vigor and biomass of vascular vegetation, in contrast to physiological impairment of lichen due to the short-term secondary effect of temperature on moisture. In the longer term, succession from lichen to vascular is likely responsible for the small observed NDVI increase over lichen-dominated regions. The fact that both Landsat and AVHRR exhibited similar relative vegetation-specific trends in NDVI suggests that this phenomenon may be widespread in the North. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing industrial output in Canada to a level that will meet the target set out in the Kyoto Protocol. The study uses an ecological–economic Input–Output model combining economic components valued in monetary terms with ecologic components – GHG emissions – expressed in physical terms. Economic and greenhouse gas emissions data for Canada are computed in the same sectoral disaggregation. Three policy scenarios are considered: the first one uses the direct emission coefficients to allocate the reduction in industrial output, while the other two use the direct plus indirect emission coefficients. In the first two scenarios, the reduction in industrial sector output is allocated uniformly across sectors while it is allocated to the 12 largest emitting industries in the last one. The estimated impacts indicate that the results vary with the different allocation methods. The third policy scenario, allocation to the 12 largest emitting sectors, is the most cost effective of the three as the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol reduces Gross Domestic Product by 3.1% compared to 24% and 8.1% in the first two scenarios. Computed economic costs should be considered as upper-bounds because the model assumes immediate adjustment to the Kyoto Protocol and because flexibility mechanisms are not incorporated. The resulting upper-bound impact of the third scenario may seem to contradict those who claim that the Kyoto Protocol would place an unbearable burden on the Canadian economy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: When planning the acquisition of new palaeo proxy data for reconstructing past climates, many factors influence the decision of where the proxies are to be collected. One such influence is the likelihood of recording a significant climate change relative to the modern. Another consideration, which is less often considered, is the desire to target regions in which there is significant uncertainty in numerical model predictions of past climate change. New proxy data in these regions enables a more rigorous test of model simulations, and results in better constraints on the various boundary conditions used to force the models. In this paper we present a methodology for targeting new palaeo proxy data, based on model simulations. We use the terrestrial late Miocene (11.6 to 5.3 Ma) as a case study. The late Miocene climate provides insights into future climate behavior, as it is believed to have been considerably warmer than the modern. We carry out a suite of late Miocene atmosphere-only General Circulation Model simulations, which we initially evaluate relative to an example dataset of terrestrial temperature and precipitation. In terms of targeting future data acquisition, we locate those regions in the model which exhibit the largest change in temperature and/or precipitation relative to the pre-industrial. We also locate those regions which display the largest variability between the model simulations, because new data in these regions are most likely to provide a strict test of the reliability of the model results. Among other regions, the Amazon basin, the Chad basin, central Canada, and northern India are identified as potentially useful areas to collect data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A new technique for climate simulations and projections has emerged over the past 15 years that allows to reach unprecedented spatial resolution at an affordable computing cost: regional climate modelling. The technique has matured and several groups around the world are participating in model intercomparison projects and collaborating in coordinated endeavour to produce ensemble climate-change projections at regional scales. The paper describes the formulation of a specific regional climate model (RCM), the Canadian RCM, commenting on the formulation choices and experience gained during the development and validation process of this model. Current issues in regional climate modelling are also reviewed and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Patterns of coastal erosion in the Arctic differ dramatically from those coasts in more temperate environments. Thick sea ice and shore-fast ice limit wave-based erosional processes to a brief open water season, however despite this, permafrost coasts containing massive ice, ice wedges and ice-bonded sediments tend to experience high rates of erosion. These high rates of erosion reflect the combined thermal–mechanical processes of thawing permafrost, melting ground ice, and wave action. Climate change in the Arctic is expected to result in increased rates of coastal erosion due to warming permafrost, increasing active layer depths and thermokarst, rising sea levels, reduction in sea ice extent and duration, and increasing storm impacts. With the most ice-rich permafrost in the Canadian Arctic, the southern Beaufort Sea coast between the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and the Alaskan border is subject to high rates of erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity. Under many climate change scenarios this area is also predicted to experience the greatest warming in the Canadian Arctic. This paper presents results of a remote sensing study on the long-term patterns of coastal erosion and retrogressive thaw slump activity for Herschel Island in the northern Yukon Territory. Using orthorectified airphotos from 1952 and 1970 and an Ikonos image from 2000 corrected with control points collected by kinematic differential global positioning system and processed using softcopy photogrammetric tools, mean coastal retreat rates of 0.61 m/yr and 0.45 m/yr were calculated for the periods 1952–1970 and 1970–2000, respectively. The highest coastal retreat rates are on north–west facing shorelines which correspond to the main direction of storm-related wave attack. During the period 1970–2000 coastal retreat rates for south to south–east facing shorelines displayed a distinct increase even though these are the most sheltered orientations. However, south to south–east facing shorelines correspond to the orientations where the highest densities of retrogressive thaw slumps are observed. Differences in rates of headwall retreat of retrogressive thaw slumps and coastal erosion results in the formation of larger thermokarst scars and the development of polycyclic thaw slumps on south to south–east exposures. The number and the total area of retrogressive thaw slumps increased by 125% and 160%, respectively, between 1952 and 2000. As well, the proportion of active retrogressive thaw slumps increased dramatically. Polycyclic retrogressive thaw slumps appear to develop in a periodic fashion, related to retrogressive thaw slump stage and maximum inland extent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recently, it has been recognized that large lakes exert considerable influence on regional climate systems and vice versa and that the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), which does not currently have a lake component, requires the development of a coupled lake sub-model. Prior to a full effort for this model development, however, studies are needed to select and assess the suitability of a lake hydrodynamic model in terms of its capability to couple with the CRCM. This paper evaluates the performance of the 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model ELCOM on Great Slave Lake, one of Canada''s largest lakes in the northern climatic system. Model simulations showed dominant circulation patterns that can create relatively large spatial and temporal gradients in temperature. Simulated temperatures compared well with cross-lake temperature observations both at the surface and vertically. Sensitivity analysis was applied to determine the critical meteorological variables affecting simulations of temperature and surface heat fluxes. For example, a 10% increase in air temperature and solar radiation was found to result in a 3. 1% and 8. 3% increase in water surface temperature and 8. 5% increase in latent heat flux. Knowledge of the model sensitivity is crucial for future research in which the hydrodynamic model coupled with the atmosphere will be forced from the CRCM output. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is commonly evaluated as the difference between simulated climates under future and current forcings, based on the assumption that systematic errors in the current-climate simulation do not affect the climate-change signal. In this paper, we investigate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) projected climate changes in the climatological means and extremes of selected basin-scale surface fields and its sensitivity to model errors for Fraser, Mackenzie, Yukon, Nelson, Churchill and Mississippi basins, covering the major climate regions in North America, using current (1961-1990) and future climate simulations (2041-2070; A2 and IS92a scenarios) performed with two versions of CRCM. Assessment of errors in both model versions suggests the presence of nonnegligible biases in the surface fields, due primarily to the internal dynamics and physics of the regional model and to the errors in the driving data at the boundaries. In general, results demonstrate that, in spite of the errors in the two model versions, the simulated climate-change signals associated with the long-term monthly climatology of various surface water balance components (such as precipitation, evaporation, snow water equivalent (SWE), runoff and soil moisture) are consistent in sign, but differ in magnitude. The same is found for projected changes to the low-flow characteristics (frequency, timing and return levels) studied here. High-flow characteristics, particularly the seasonal distribution and return levels, appear to be more sensitive to the model version. CRCM climate-change projections indicate an increase in the average annual precipitation for all basins except Mississippi, while annual runoff increases in Fraser, Mackenzie and Yukon basins. A decrease in runoff is projected for Mississippi. A significant decrease in snow cover is projected for all basins, with maximum decrease in Fraser. Significant changes are also noted in the frequency, timing and return levels for low flows. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia and Canada have been active participants in international climate change negotiations since the early 1990s and have often shared negotiating positions. This paper discusses why, in spite of considerable similarities in national circumstances, the Canadian government chose to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, while the Australian government decided against doing so. It is argued that a range of factors led to a narrower conception of the national interest in the case of Australia, which encouraged a focus on the short-term, economic costs of implementing the Protocol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For over a decade, the scientific community and park professionals have recognized that climate change will have critical implications for park conservation policy and management (International Union for Conservation of Nature, 1993; Welch, 2005). The implications of global climate change for nature-based park tourism has only recently begun to be assessed. Nature-based tourism and related outdoor recreation are strongly influenced by climate. Climate can affect the physical resources that define the foundation of many tourism and recreation activities as well as the length and quality of tourism and recreation seasons. Any changes in the length and quality of tourism and recreation operating seasons brought about by changes in the climate would have considerable implications for visitation and related aspects of park management. Canada's national parks are a major resource for nature-based tourism, with approximately 16 million person visits in 2003. Visitation to Canada's national parks is highly seasonal and greatly affected by the country's regional climates. This paper examined the potential impact of climate change on the annual number of visitors and the seasonal pattern of visitation in Canada's national parks. Multivariate regression analysis using four climate variables and monthly visitation data for 1996 to 2003 was used to develop a monthly climate-visitation model for 15 high visitation parks. Each park-specific model was then run with two climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in park visitation under a range of climatic conditions projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results indicate that Canada's national parks could experience an increase in visitors under climate change due to a lengthened and improved warm-weather tourism season. In the 2020s, overall visitation levels were projected to increase 6% to 8%, with a number of parks projected to experience larger increases (+12% to 30%). The largest increases in visitation occur during the spring and fall months. Visitation was projected to increase between 9% and 29% system-wide in the 2050s and between 10% and 41% in the 2080s. Perhaps more importantly, the affects of climate change will be combined with other factors influencing park visitation in the future..... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the preliminary results of a place-name project being conducted in the Sikusilarmiut land use area of southwest Baffin Island, Canada. Specifically, I explore how Sikusilarmiut toponymy can help inform broader scientific narratives about changing Arctic environments. I discuss how Sikusilarmiut place names reflect Inuit multisensory notions of place and provide insight into the changing movements of people across the land, sea, and ice on a seasonal basis. Many Sikusilarmiut place names and routes also serve as important spatial and temporal reference points that can help integrate multiple ways of understanding and identifying environmental change through time. I discuss how the incorporation of Inuit place names into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) database represents one way scientific knowledge and Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit can be used together to identify environmental indicators of climate change. I conclude, however, that these documentation efforts must be combined with more experiential and practical knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper describes our preliminary assessment of the system requirements (data, interface and process) for implementation of terms describing lake effects in the Canadian Regional Climate Model. We demonstrate test results for one-dimensional (1-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) models for lake hydrodynamics that have been tested and prepared for interfacing with atmospheric circulation models. We discuss the use of a physical interface model, Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), that is under consideration for the air–water interface. Our preliminary assessment indicates that it is technically feasible to apply the combination of small shallow lake (slab) model, 1-dimensional vertical model and 3-dimensional circulation model (for very large lakes), together with the current land–air linkage used in regional climate modelling in Canada. Whether we can discern the necessary conditions for invoking each of the models to the lakes present in individual regional climate grid cells is still to be determined. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Negotiations on a Canada-US Pacific salmon treaty began in 1908 but the first comprehensive treaty was not achieved until 1985. At that time, catches and landed values in the salmon fishery were near record levels and both countries viewed the agreement as a means of enhancing their individual prosperity. After a short period of co-operation, the 1985 treaty was undermined by arguments over catch sharing and the failure to rebuild some important salmon stocks. A revised treaty, agreed upon in 1999, established conservation of salmon as a priority and included a side-payment, in the form of two endowment funds designed in part to appease Canadian concern over catch imbalances. Major shifts in abundances combined with significant reductions in the value of the fishery were key factors in the negotiations. In this paper, we use the graph model for conflict resolution to examine the stability of the revised salmon treaty. Our assessment suggests that the treaty will be stable if the side-payment is maintained or enhanced even if both countries pursue aggressive fishing strategies. If the side-payment is not maintained, then it is likely that all groups will attempt to maximize their catch and Canada will seek a renegotiation of the treaty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an analysis of radiocarbon dates acquired during earlier and recent field seasons at the Keatley Creek site, southern British Columbia. Results indicate that early occupations predating 1900 cal. B.P. occurred, but were not likely associated with population aggregation and large housepits. The aggregated village appears to have emerged by approximately 1700 cal. B.P. and was abandoned at approximately 800 cal. B.P. A break in the occupational sequence is recognized at 1450-1350 cal. B.P. and one other short break may have occurred shortly after 1250 cal. B.P. Peak socioeconomic complexity appears to have been achieved between 1350 and 800 cal B.P. Climatic warming may have provided a selective environment favoring population aggregation and intensification during this time. The final abandonment of the Keatley Creek village appears to have been part of a regional phenomenon suggesting the possibility that climatic factors were important in this case as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to alter production opportunities facing agricultural producers. Global studies of climate change impacts on agriculture suggest positive benefits for Canada. Results from Canadian studies tend to be more pessimistic; however, most of these studies are regionally specific and focus on the impacts on specific crops, particularly grains and oilseeds. This paper examines the impact of climate change on Canadian agricultural land values. Changes in land values are used to impute expected changes to agricultural GDP. We find that all provinces benefit from climate change and that previous estimates may be overly pessimistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy resources will play a key role in meeting the world''s energy demand over the coming decades. Unfortunately, these resources are all susceptible to variations in climate, and hence vulnerable to climate change. Recent findings in the atmospheric science literature suggest that the impacts of greenhouse gas induced warming are likely to significantly alter climate patterns in the future. In this paper we investigate the potential impacts of climate change on wind speeds and hence on wind power, across the continental US. General Circulation Model output from the Canadian Climate Center and the Hadley Center were used to provide a range of possible variations in seasonal mean wind magnitude. These projections were used to investigate the vulnerability of current and potential wind power generation regions. The models were generally consistent in predicting that the US will see reduced wind speeds of 1.0 to 3.2% in the next 50 years, and 1.4 to 4.5% over the next 100 years. In both cases the Canadian model predicted larger decreases in wind speeds. At regional scales the two models showed some similarities in early years of simulations (e.g. 2050), but diverged significantly in their predictions for 2100. Hence, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding how wind fields will change in the future. Nevertheless, the two models investigated here are used as possible scenarios for use in investigating regional wind power vulnerabilities, and point to the need to consider climate variability and long term climate change in citing wind power facilities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper focuses on the status of policy studies on Global Climate Change and how renewable and high-efficiency generation technology can be part of the solution. It considers critical technologies and solutions toward realizing the targets set in the Kyoto treaty. Discussed is energy effi ciency in power generation, environmental benefits of high-effi ciency gas turbines in competitive energy markets which display less NOx and CO[sub 2] emissions per unit of power produced while providing power generators with the most competitive electricity, and experience in India in mitigating climate change with renewable energy as seen by the UN and an advisor to the Indian government in nonconventional energy sources. Also discussed is stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that will present dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system as called for under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper presents an empirical model of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) developed for a subarctic fen near Churchill, Manitoba. The model with observed data helps explain the interannual variability in growing season NEE. Five years of tower-flux data are used to test and examine the seasonal behaviour of the model simulations. Processes controlling the observed interannual variability of CO2 exchange at the fen are examined by exploring the sensitivity of the model to changes in air temperature, precipitation and leaf area index. Results indicate that the sensitivity of NEE to changing environmental controls is complex and varies interannually depending on the initial conditions of the wetland. Changes in air temperature and the timing of precipitation events have a strong influence on NEE, which is largely manifest in gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP). Climate change scenarios indicate that warmer air temperatures will increase carbon acquisition during wet years but may act to reduce wetland carbon storage in years that experience a large water deficit early in the growing season. Model simulations for this subarctic sedge fen indicate that carbon acquisition is greatest during wet and warm conditions. This suggests therefore that carbon accumulation was greatest at this subarctic fen during its early developmental stages when hydroclimatic conditions were relatively wet and warm at approximately 2500 years before present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change is a contributor to extreme weather events and natural disasters, which in turn impacts mental health. • The mental health effects of climate change are multifaceted, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and suicide, and anxiety. • Research has consistently demonstrated that specific risk factors (e.g., gender, socioeconomic status and education, pre-existing mental health symptomatology), are associated with increased vulnerability to mental health conditions post-disaster. • There are multiple strategies that must be undertaken by communities to enhance adjustment and coping post-disaster, including enhanced access to care, inter-agency cooperation, enhanced community resiliency, and adequate preparation. Climate change is a contributor to extreme weather events and natural disasters. The mental health effects of climate change are multifaceted, with post-traumatic stress disorder and depression predominant. This paper aims to describe the impact of climate change on mental health conditions, including risk and protective factors related to the expression of mental health conditions post-disaster, as well as a discussion of our local experience with a devastating wildfire to our region within Canada. The risk of the development of mental health conditions post-disaster is not equally distributed; research has consistently demonstrated that specific risk factors (e.g., gender, socioeconomic status and education, pre-existing mental health symptomatology), are associated with increased vulnerability to mental health conditions following natural disasters. There are multiple strategies that must be undertaken by communities to enhance adjustment and coping post-disaster, including improved access to care, inter-agency cooperation, enhanced community resiliency, and adequate preparation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finding sustainable pathways to efficiently allocate limited available water resources among increasingly competing water uses has become crucial due to climate-change-induced water shortages and increasing water demand. This has led to an urgent need for the inclusion of economic principles, models, and methods in water resources management. Although several studies have developed macro-economic models to evaluate the economic impacts of alternative water allocation strategies, many if not most ignore the hydrological boundaries of transboundary river basins. Furthermore, of those using input-output (IO) models, only a handful have applied supply-side IO models. In this paper, we present one of the first attempts to develop an inter-regional, supply-side IO modelling framework for a multi-jurisdictional, transboundary river basin to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of water supply restrictions due to climate and policy change. Applying this framework to the Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada encompassing three provinces, we investigate the economic impacts of two different water supply restriction scenarios on the entire river basin and its sub-basins individually. We find that in the face of climate-change-induced water shortage, economic losses can be reduced by almost 50% by adopting appropriate management practices, including prioritization of water allocation, using alternative water sources, and water re-use technologies. • Sectoral water use is incorporated into a supply-side input-output model. • The model is spatially disaggregated into 6 sub-basins across 3 Canadian provinces. • The model evaluates the economic impacts of alternative water allocation policies. • The model results assist policymakers prepare efficient water management plans. • Adopting proper policies, potential economic drought losses can be reduced by 50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Situated within the broader climate justice movement, the fossil fuel divestment movement calls for both public and private divestment of financial holdings from fossil fuel companies. This paper examines the extent of fossil fuel divestment campaigns at higher education institutions across Canada, examining key actions and tactics through which campaigns are initiated and mobilized, as led by students, faculty, alumni, and climate justice organizations. Findings indicate that out of 220 accredited Canadian universities and colleges, there are 38 active divestment campaigns and 6 institutions that have committed to varying degrees of divestment. Tactics used in these campaigns include signing of petitions, sit-ins, rallies, and protests, facilitated through face-to-face and online platforms. Findings revealed significant borrowing of actions and tactics among campaign actors, including the use of branding and messaging from international environmental organizations, such as 350.org. This research contributes to scholarly knowledge on how higher education divestment movements and related campaigns for institutional change can influence how sustainability and climate change are addressed. Actors can build on this knowledge to develop sustained collaborative systems to address current and future challenges across institutions and in society at large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists' stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses Leslie Sharpe's sound and sculpture installation project "Beak Disorder," exhibited at Manizales, Columbia for Balance-Unbalance 2016. The work addresses how anthropogenic climate change may be affecting birds in the Pacific Northwest regions of Canada and the United States. "Beak Disorder" is a project that references an unexplained condition documented in birds in the Northwest of Canada and Alaska called "avian keratin disorder" where the bird's beak becomes distorted and elongated. The work includes a series of 3D printed distorted beaks as well as a sound piece and web component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the central question of how climate change influences tree growth within the context of global warming, we used dendroclimatological analysis to understand the reactions of four major boreal tree species – Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, Picea mariana, and Pinus banksiana– to climatic variations along a broad latitudinal gradient from 46 to 54°N in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. Tree-ring chronologies from 34 forested stands distributed at a 1° interval were built, transformed into principal components (PCs), and analyzed through bootstrapped correlation analysis over the period 1950–2003 to identify climate factors limiting the radial growth and the detailed radial growth–climate association along the gradient. All species taken together, previous summer temperature (negative influences), and current January and March–April temperatures (positive influences) showed the most consistent relationships with radial growth across the gradient. Combined with the identified species/site-specific climate factors, our study suggested that moisture conditions during the year before radial growth played a dominant role in positively regulating P. tremuloides growth, whereas January temperature and growing season moisture conditions positively impacted growth of B. papyrifera. Both P. mariana and P. banksiana were positively affected by the current-year winter and spring or whole growing season temperatures over the entire range of our corridor. Owing to the impacts of different climate factors on growth, these boreal species showed inconsistent responsiveness to recent warming at the transition zone, where B. papyrifera, P. mariana, and P. banksiana would be the most responsive species, whereas P. tremuloides might be the least. Under continued warming, B. papyrifera stands located north of 49°N, P. tremuloides at northern latitudes, and P. mariana and P. banksiana stands located north of 47°N might benefit from warming winter and spring temperatures to enhance their radial growth in the coming decades, whereas other southern stands might be decreasing in radial growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents examples of environmental changes in the Canadian Rockies in the context of a 1.5 deg. C increase in mean annual temperatures over the last 100 years. During this period increases in winter temperatures have been more than twice as large as those during spring and summer. Glacier cover has decreased by at least 25% during the present century and glacier fronts have receded to positions lastoccupied ca. 3000 years ago. These two lines of evidence suggest that the climate of the late 20th century is exceptional in the context of the last 1000 to 3000 years. Detailed studies in three closely located upper treeline sites document variable responses of vegetation to climate change that reflect species differences as well as local differences in microclimate and site conditions. Treeline has advanced upslope in response to climate warming, but site and species differences control the rate and nature of the advance. Human impacts on the environment compound the changes due to climate warming. Historic photographs indicate significant changes in the type and density of forest cover due to the absence of significant forest fires within these National Parks during the last 70-80 years. The visual impact of these changes, which partially reflects a policy of fire suppression, is far greater than the impact of changes associated with more direct tourist-related impacts. It is therefore important that monitoring programs examine vegetation changes over the entire landscape rather thanfocusing exclusively on supposedly climate-sensitive sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]