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Indigenous knowledge about climate change that makes adaptability necessary by coping strategies leads to the sustainability of nomadic livelihoods. This paper proposed a new adaptability approach, an association coping strategy (ACS), which is established based on the association rulesʼ recommendations. The adaptability was empirically analyzed using 12 coping strategies used by Kashkooli nomads in Sepidan plain, Fars province, Iran. Required data were gathered both in the form of time series from November 1988 to February 2020 and cross section during June–July 2019. Household perceptions of climatic and environmental variables, supported by meteorological data, revealed that climate change was negatively impacting the Kashkooli nomadic livelihood in Sepidan plain. The findings also indicated that taking simultaneous coping strategies resulted in selling livestock surplus, saving water consumption, livestock insurance, rangeland regeneration schemes, and immigration to more suitable rangelands. Therefore, Kashkooli nomadic livelihood survived climate changes using ACSs. The association rules were useful for recommending anticipatory coping strategies that were adopted based on indigenous knowledge about climate change by nomads to establish appropriate adaptability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture stands as the basis of human life, and it is important to sustain affordable food provision of this support system through powerful adaptation to climate change as the worldwide effects of climatic hazards are becoming more evident. Specifically, some semiarid and arid areas of developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. To reduce vulnerability of these regions, realizing context-specific impediments of robust adaptation to climate change is necessary. Also, it is imperative to consider anticipated transformations of agricultural systems that are required to enhance resilience of agriculture in coping with climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate major adaptation barriers in agriculture sector of Fars province, Iran. It also attempts to identify if any transformation from productivist agricultural systems is needed. To achieve these objectives, the group analytic hierarchy process was conducted with representatives from local government, academic institutes and farmers. The results revealed that local stakeholders prioritized barriers to adaptation, differently, and they showed various levels of concern about the importance of some barriers. However, they identified the governance and policy-related issues as the most important barriers. The results also indicated that transformational adaptation of agriculture sector from productivist to multifunctional farming system is required in order to enhance its resilience under uncertain climatic conditions. Some recommendations are offered to eliminate barriers of agricultural adaptation to climate change and also facilitate transformational adaptation of agriculture, in the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study area, with arid to semi-humid climates, is located in northern Fars Province, southern Iran. Daily precipitation and temperature data from 22 models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to study climate change for period 2026–2085 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Daily outputs of each CMIP5 model are downscaled to climatic stations over the study area using LARS-WG tool and transient change factors approach. Daily precipitation is downscaled to seven climatic stations while daily temperature downscaled to two stations. Downscaling results indicate that temperature will increase by + 1.85, + 2.5, and + 3.45 °C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively, while precipitation will reduce by 14, 22, and 20.8%, respectively, within the study area. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) analysis, performed for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, shows that frequency (duration) of normal periods will increase (decrease) under climate change, however, 12-month SPI analysis shows decreased frequency and increased duration for normal periods. Frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of wet periods may increase, decrease, or not change under climate change, depending on the SPI time scale. The study area will experience more frequent, longer-duration, severed, intensified droughts in the future due to global warming. Extreme storm analysis shows that precipitation depth of most frequent storms (2-year return period storms) will increase, but precipitation depth of less frequent storms (10- and 20-year return period storms) will decrease under climate change. Temperature enhancement, precipitation reduction, and longer-duration, severed, intensified droughts will increase water shortage in the future, resulting in water crisis and reduced security of food production over northern Fars Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a probabilistic analysis using first-order reliability method is conducted to predict the reoccurrence of drought conditions. The implementation of the model involves the collection of the long-term average data during 1994–2015 from 609 study areas of Iran. The reliability criterion is defined as the changes in groundwater resource index during the years 1994–2004. Three parameters, including the beta index, the limit state function, and the probability of failure, are obtained using Kriging GeoStatistical analysis method to produce continuous layers. The results show that around 1900 selected points belong to definite drought conditions, and a major part of the other points are being exposed to a steady rise in the depth of water in aquifers with a probability of more than 50%. The spatial distribution of these changes shows that large parts of the eastern coastal aquifers, as well as major aquifers along the longitudinal Zagros range, and large parts of Fars province, are exposed to the reduction in groundwater level with a probability of more than 95%. In addition, the visual comparison of predicted drainage quality maps suggests a high correlation between the probability of occurrence and repetition of drought conditions with the specific drop in drinking water quality potential index classes. The results of this study confirm the drought reoccurrence conditions for predicting negative changes in standard drinking water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran’s Persian onager populations are critically endangered. This study of their natural history in Qatrouyeh National Park provides insights for enhancing their conservation. The population as a whole is greatly affected by weather. Wind, rain and cold drive populations from the plains to the valleys of hill-valley habitats. Vegetation features and water also influence habitat use, but differently for different sex and reproductive classes. Females with juveniles use plains with high-quality vegetation, whereas females without young and solitary territorial males choose those of intermediate quality. Females with young foals are also found closest to watering points. Future translocation of Persian onagers will only succeed if prospective habitats have sufficient hill-valley refuges and enough plains with winds to moderately hot conditions. Sufficient plains supporting high-quality vegetation near water for lactating females must co-exist with plains of moderate-quality vegetation that attract females without young, so reducing crowding and competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]