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Surface seawater 134Cs and 137Cs samples were collected in the central and western North Pacific Ocean during the 1.5 yr after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident to monitor dispersion patterns of these radioisotopes towards the Hawaiian Islands. In the absence of other recent sources and due to its short half-life only those parts of the Pacific Ocean would have detectable 134Cs that were impacted by Fukushima releases. Between March and May 2011, 134Cs was not detected around the Hawaiian Islands and Guam. Here, most 137Cs activities (1.2-1.5 Bqm-3) were in the range of expected preexisting levels. Some samples north of the Hawaiian Islands (1.6-1.8 Bqm-3) were elevated above the 18-month baseline established in surface seawater in Hawaii indicating that those might carry atmospheric fallout. The 18-month time-series analysis of surface seawater from Hawaii did not reveal any seasonal variability or trends, with an average activity of 1.46±0.06 Bqm-3 (Station Aloha, 17 values). In contrast, samples collected between Japan and Hawaii contained 134Cs activities in the range of 1-4 Bqm-3 and 137Cs levels were about 2-3 times above the pre-existing activities. We found that the southern boundary of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension currents represented a boundary for radiation dispersion with higher activities detected within and north of the major currents. The radiation plume has not been detected over the past 1.5 yr at the main Hawaiian Islands due to the transport patterns across the Kuroshio and Kuroshio extension currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientists and managers of natural resources have recognized an urgent need for improved methods and tools to enable effective adaptation of management measures in the face of climate change. This paper presents an Adaptation Design Tool that uses a structured approach to break down an otherwise overwhelming and complex process into tractable steps. The tool contains worksheets that guide users through a series of design considerations for adapting their planned management actions to be more climate-smart given changing environmental stressors. Also provided with other worksheets is a framework for brainstorming new adaptation options in response to climate threats not yet addressed in the current plan. Developed and tested in collaboration with practitioners in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico using coral reefs as a pilot ecosystem, the tool and associated reference materials consist of worksheets, instructions and lessons-learned from real-world examples. On the basis of stakeholder feedback from expert consultations during tool development, we present insights and recommendations regarding how to maximize tool efficiency, gain the greatest value from the thought process, and deal with issues of scale and uncertainty. We conclude by reflecting on how the tool advances the theory and practice of assessment and decision-making science, informs higher level strategic planning, and serves as a platform for a systematic, transparent and inclusive process to tackle the practical implications of climate change for management of natural resources.

This paper considers key drivers to climate policy development with an emphasis on the role of a jurisdiction's underlying energy resource. The states of Hawaii in the United States and Victoria in Australia provide an insightful comparative case study given their differing energy resources: Hawaii has no native fossil fuel resources but abundant renewable energy options while Victoria has an economy traditionally reliant on cheap, plentiful coal. The Advocacy Coalition Framework is applied to analyze why the two states, despite the different incentives provided by their energy resources, developed similar climate policies in the earlier period of policy response to global warming. Analysis finds the stable parameter of energy resources is counterbalanced by other policy drivers including public opinion, leadership and, in particular, features of policy-making particular to the subnational level that provide a different context for climate policy development to that offered at the national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Health Organization defined climate change as the most important issue for the 21st century. In 2014, the State of Hawaii called climate change "a matter of security" that directly threatens "economic systems - food, water, energy, biodiversity and health" and has called for "actionable information for local decision making." According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the burden of human morbidity attributable to climate change is relatively small although not well quantified. Nevertheless, generic climate change impacts are often used to justify actions without adequate supporting local evidence. This paper analyzes Hawaii's health risks in relation to air pollution, heat extremes, ultraviolet radiation, and weather extremes and finds that Hawaii's natural geography, robust water, and sanitation infrastructure render the islands less vulnerable to many of the often-mentioned climate change threats. It concludes that the health security threat posed by climate change effects on Hawaii's physical environment over the next 35 years is slight in most areas and moderate with regard to ecosystem health. Because all global communities tend to be both discrete and unique in their vulnerability, it recommends the collection of grassroots, community-based resilience data to reveal local vulnerabilities that can inform strategic statewide planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of government spending, income, and tourism consumption on CO2 emissions in the 50 US states through a novel theoretical model derived from the Armey Curve model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The findings of this research are essential for policymakers to develop effective strategies for mitigating environmental pollution. Utilizing panel cointegration analysis, the study provides valuable insights into whether continued increases in government spending contribute to higher pollution levels. By identifying the threshold point of spending as a percentage of GDP, policymakers can make informed decisions to avoid the trade-off between increased spending and environmental degradation. For instance, the analysis reveals that Hawaii's tipping point is 16.40%. The empirical results underscore the importance of adopting sustainable policies that foster economic growth while minimizing environmental harm. These findings will aid policymakers in formulating targeted and efficient approaches to tackle climate change and promote long-term environmental sustainability in the United States. Moreover, the impact of tourism development on CO2 emissions varies across states, with some US states experiencing a decrease while others see an increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Islands, with their long coastlines and increased vulnerability to sea level rise, offer compelling opportunities to investigate the salinity tolerance of coastal plants. Seeds are generally more vulnerable than other plant stages to increased stressors. The aim of this study was to characterize salinity tolerance during germination across a diverse pool of 21 species from 14 plant families found in coastal communities throughout the Hawaiian Islands in order to increase our general understanding of coastal plant ecology for conservation and restoration. Methods Seeds of each species were exposed to unfiltered/untreated seawater (35 ppt total salinity) and two salinity treatments (10 and 20 ppt) in which the seawater was diluted with distilled water, and germination percent and timing were compared to seeds in a distilled water control. Non-germinated seeds were then tested for recovery germination. We quantified and compared germination percent, time and recovery among species and across salinity levels and tested for heterogeneity related to seed size, dormancy class, habit and threatened status. Key Results Although salinity tolerance varied considerably among species, salinity exposure generally reduced and delayed germination. The greatest effects were detected at higher salinity levels. Recovery germination overall was higher for seeds that had been exposed to higher salinity. None of the factors we explored emerged as predictors of salinity tolerance except seed mass, which tended to enhance germination at higher salinity. Conclusions Species responses to salinity exposure indicate high vulnerability of coastal systems to increased salinity stress, and variability among species could lead to shifts in community assembly and composition under sea level rise. These results can help guide coastal ecosystem conservation and restoration management decisions in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hawaiian Islands have been identified as a global biodiversity hotspot. We examine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Climate Data Records products (0.05 × 0.05°) to identify significant differences in NDVI between neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation years (1984, 2019) and significant long-term changes over the entire time series (1982–2019) for the Hawaiian Islands and six land cover classes. Overall, there has been a significant decline in NDVI (i.e., browning) across the Hawaiian Islands from 1982 to 2019 with the islands of Lāna'i and Hawai'i experiencing the greatest decreases in NDVI (≥44%). All land cover classes significantly decreased in NDVI for most months, especially during the wet season month of March. Native vegetation cover across all islands also experienced significant declines in NDVI, with the leeward, southwestern side of the island of Hawai'i experiencing the greatest declines. The long-term trends in the annual total precipitation and annual mean Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1982–2019 on the Hawaiian Islands show significant concurrent declines. Primarily positive correlations between the native ecosystem NDVI and precipitation imply that significant decreases in precipitation may exacerbate the decrease in NDVI of native ecosystems. NDVI-PDSI correlations were primarily negative on the windward side of the islands and positive on the leeward sides, suggesting a higher sensitivity to drought for leeward native ecosystems. Multi-decadal time series and spatially explicit data for native landscapes provide natural resource managers with long-term trends and monthly changes associated with vegetation health and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical Pacific Islands face unknown rates of future warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, but almost certain changing climate stresses. Continued global warming is projected to cause further changes to the mean conditions and variability of sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall, and sea surface height (SSH). Previous climate model simulations showed that the equatorial Pacific is likely to have greater increased rainfall, compared to elsewhere in the tropics. There is less certainty about future rainfall changes away from the equator, including around many of the numerous tropical Pacific Islands. Here, we assess the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project‐phase 6 (CMIP6) as it relates to future changes of SST, rainfall, and SSH in the tropical Pacific. Focus is on the island regions of Hawaii, Guam, and American Samoa, as well as the Niño 3.4 region. We consider two development narratives of the 21st century by assessing the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 experiments, and describe climate changes in the tropical Pacific relative to the recent historical conditions that are likely for either 1.5°C or 3°C of global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming above preindustrial levels. Consistent with prior‐generation climate models, we find that future rainfall increases the most where SST warming is greatest, and also an overall increase of interannual variability associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affecting rainfall and SSH. We describe changes in SST, rainfall, and SSH for particular warming amounts, and make comparisons with time‐based climate assessments during the 21st century, which are relevant results toward better understanding uncertainty and supporting adaptation efforts in the tropical Pacific Islands. Plain Language Summary: We assess 21st century projected climate changes in the tropical Pacific using the latest generation of climate models that simulate Earth's response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Focus is on describing likely changes of rainfall, as well as sea surface temperature and height, for broad regions around Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, and the other US‐affiliated Pacific Islands. Although it remains unknown how much global warming will occur, the climate models are unequivocal that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm this century. We constrain this uncertainty by quantifying climate changes for particular warming amounts, such as 1.5°C or 3°C of global warming relative to preindustrial conditions. The surface of both the Earth and the tropical Pacific, specifically, have already warmed by more than 0.5°C. However, it is unknown when the 1.5°C or 3°C global warming amounts will occur. Some uncertainty also remains about regional climate changes associated with the future warming, such as for rainfall around Hawaii and American Samoa, whereas there is more consensus among models about the future rainfall increasing near the equator as well as near Guam in the north‐western Pacific. Increasing equatorial rainfall is a consequence of that region projected to warm fastest and also suggests likely increasing climate variability affecting most tropical Pacific Islands. Key Points: CMIP6 projects increasing 21st‐century rainfall for the equatorial Pacific, and in a broad part of the tropical north‐western PacificRainfall changes are more uncertain for regions around many tropical Pacific Islands, such as Hawaii and American SamoaAssessing seasonal and interannual variability changes for particular warming amounts constrains uncertainty related to the global warming rate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural climate variability poses a limit to the confidence in regional climate projections, particularly for the near‐term. Therefore, the next decades are of importance for regional impact studies and the development of regional adaptation plans. This article presents results from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations (years 1996–2005 and 2026–2035) that are used to examine the effects of both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on near‐term climate projections for the Hawaiian Islands. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM‐LE) is used in conjunction with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for downscaling. The climate responses to the PDO and anthropogenic forcing are isolated and analyzed separately. In response to anthropogenic forcing, significant increases in surface air temperature, of ∼0.8 K, are projected at low elevations. Stronger warming, of up to 1.3 K, is seen at higher elevation areas. Future climate simulations show significant increases in wet season rainfall, of ∼10%–20%, along the windward slopes of Big Island and Maui. Rainfall patterns during the positive PDO phase are projected to reverse in sign, leading to drier conditions, by ∼10%–30%, at many locations. Future climate simulations show daily rainfall extremes will increase, by up to ∼10%–15%, at many locations. Daily temperature extremes are also projected to increase significantly, by up to 1.4 K. Overall, results indicate that natural variability will continue to contribute to uncertainty in near‐term rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands, masking the forced signal. Plain Language Summary: This project studies how temperature and precipitation will change across the Hawaiian Islands in the near future due to human‐induced causes (e.g., burning coal and other fossil fuels). This is done by comparing climate model simulations for two 10‐year periods (1996–2005 vs. 2026–2035). Further, this research evaluates how natural climate variations affect Hawaiian climate. The main analysis concentrates on an important type of natural climate variability in the North Pacific, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This research implements dynamical downscaling, that is, a regional climate model is used to refine global climate model simulations in order to better capture the local weather patterns in Hawai'i. We find that land and ocean temperatures across the Hawaiian Islands region will become warmer due to human‐induced causes. We also find that rainfall will likely increase for some areas of Hawai'i, particularly the mountain slopes, posing an increased risk for flooding. The simulations reveal that natural climate variability will continue to contribute to near‐term climate variations in this region. While the natural climate variability limits our confidence in the projected rainfall changes, it is hoped that our findings will assist decision makers across the State of Hawai'i in creating climate adaptation plans. Key Points: Significant increases in near‐surface temperature and sea surface temperature are projected across the Hawaiian Islands regionSignificant increases in mean and extreme rainfall are projected for some areas of the islandsNatural decadal variability will continue to mask the forced signal in near‐term rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the intra-annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, are investigated by comparing monthly observations to the mean value of each year’s waxing and waning phase of the cycle. Results identify a previously unnoticed change between 1965 and 2004 during October in which October concentrations declined relative to the cycle’s mean value. Results confirm a previously noted change in spring (April), but unlike previous analyses, this result indicates that between 1965 and 2004 April concentrations rose relative to the cycle’s mean value. The timing of these changes is not caused by commonly recognized patterns of atmospheric circulation, such as ENSO events. Instead, these changes may be generated by asymmetric effects of warming. Warming in early spring may increase heterotrophic respiration relative to net primary production while warming in late summer/early fall may enhance net primary production relative to heterotrophic respiration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Displacement of native plant species by non-native invaders may result from differences in their carbon economy, yet little is known regarding how variation in leaf traits influences native–invader dynamics across climate gradients. In Hawaii, one of the most heavily invaded biodiversity hotspots in the world, strong spatial variation in climate results from the complex topography, which underlies variation in traits that probably drives shifts in species interactions. Methods Using one of the most comprehensive trait data sets for Hawaii to date (91 species and four islands), we determined the extent and sources of variation (climate, species and species origin) in leaf traits, and used mixed models to examine differences between natives and non-native invasives. Key Results We detected significant differences in trait means, such that invasives were more resource acquisitive than natives over most of the climate gradients. However, we also detected trait convergence and a rank reversal (natives more resource acquisitive than invasives) in a sub-set of conditions. There was significant intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in leaf traits of natives and invasives, although invasives expressed significantly greater ITV than natives in water loss and photosynthesis. Species accounted for more trait variation than did climate for invasives, while the reverse was true for natives. Incorporating this climate-driven trait variation significantly improved the fit of models that compared natives and invasives. Lastly, in invasives, ITV was most strongly explained by spatial heterogeneity in moisture, whereas solar energy explains more ITV in natives. Conclusions Our results indicate that trait expression and ITV vary significantly between natives and invasives, and that this is mediated by climate. These findings suggest that although natives and invasives are functionally similar at the regional scale, invader success at local scales is contingent on climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species with broad climatic ranges might be more vulnerable to climate change than previously appreciated due to intraspecific variation in climatic stress tolerance. In tropical forests, drought is increasingly frequent and severe, causing widespread declines and altering community dynamics. Yet, little is known about whether foundation tropical trees vary in drought tolerance throughout their distributions, and how intraspecific variation in drought tolerance might contribute to their vulnerability to climate change.We tested for local adaptation in seedling emergence and establishment with a full‐factorial reciprocal transplant experiment including 27 populations and 109,350 seeds along a 3,500 mm precipitation gradient for a widespread tropical foundation tree, Metrosideros polymorpha, in Hawaii. To more precisely relate seedling performance to soil moisture, we conducted a complementary greenhouse experiment to test responses of the same focal populations to simulated drought.In the reciprocal transplant experiment, we observed significant variation among populations and sites in germination and seedling establishment rates. Overall, there was a significant link between historical rainfall of populations and their performance under current rainfall at the study sites consistent with local adaptation. In particular, populations from historically wet sites demonstrated lower germination rates in currently dry sites compared to wet field sites, while populations from historically dry sites germinated well across all sites, with particularly high germination in dry sites. In the greenhouse, seedlings from wet populations survived fewer days without water, and succumbed at wetter soil conditions than populations from historically dry sites, corroborating results from the field experiment.Synthesis. While climate change models project the greatest drying trends for historically dry areas in Hawaii, even moderate drying of wet sites could significantly reduce Metrosideros polymorpha recruitment given the sensitivity of seedlings to very slight changes in water regimes. Thus, although M. polymorpha demonstrates high seedling drought tolerance in some populations, providing evidence of resilience at the species‐scale, there are nonetheless vulnerable populations that will likely decline under climate change. Our approach demonstrates that even trees with high dispersal abilities can show significant clines in drought tolerance, and suggests that similar intraspecific variation might be an important consideration for other tropical foundational tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding life history traits is important for assessing potential invasiveness, particularly in the context of the future spread of invasive species under climate change. A number of species of Veronicellidae have been introduced beyond their native ranges and have become invasive. Two of these species, Veronicella cubensis and Laevicaulis alte , are widespread in Hawaii, yet little is known of their life histories. This study of growth and reproduction and their relation to temperature in these two species was undertaken using laboratory stocks derived from individuals collected in Hawaii. More data were collected for V. cubensis than for L. alte because of difficulty maintaining the latter in the lab. Veronicella cubensis grew faster at 22 °C than at 27 °C. At 22 °C, the mean age at which V. cubensis first mated was 203 d, and the mean age when eggs were first laid was 226 d. Mating in V. cubensis lasted more than a day, and it took up to 4 d to lay an egg mass. Mating took less than a day in L. alte. No self-fertilization was recorded in V. cubensis , but a single L. alte individual maintained alone from hatching laid fertilized eggs. Sperm storage after a single mating in V. cubensis was estimated to last up to 6 months. In both species the time for eggs to hatch was shorter at 27 °C than at 22 °C. Hatchability was between 74 and 93%. Veronicella cubensis lived for at least 2 years and was estimated to produce at least 400 eggs over its life. Climate warming will probably lead to expansion of the ranges of V. cubensis and L. alte to higher elevations in Hawaii and elsewhere. Growth and reproduction will also be affected by a warming climate and therefore impact the success of these invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hawaii experienced record-high sea levels during 2017, which followed the 2015 strong El Niño and coincided with weak trade winds in the tropical northeastern Pacific. The record sea levels were associated with a combination of processes, an important contributing factor of which was the persistent high sea level (~10 cm above normal) over a large region stretching between Hawaii and Mexico. High sea levels at Mexico are known to occur during strong El Niño as the coastal thermocline deepens. Planetary wave theory predicts that these coastal anomalies propagate westward into the basin interior; however, high sea levels at Hawaii do not occur consistently following strong El Niño events. In particular, Hawaii sea levels remained near normal following the previous strong El Niño of 1997. The processes controlling whether Hawaii sea levels rise after El Niño have so far remained unknown. Atmosphere-forced ocean model experiments show that anomalous surface cooling, controlled by variable trade winds, impacts sea level via mixed layer density, explaining much of the difference in Hawaiian sea level response after the two recent strong El Niño events. In climate model projections with greenhouse warming, more frequent weak trade winds following El Niño events are expected, suggesting that the occurrence of high sea levels at Hawaii will increase as oceanic anomalies more often traverse the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawaiʻi Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawaiʻi Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers’ primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai‘i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hawai'i's forest birds face a number of conservation challenges that, if unaddressed, will likely lead to the extinction of multiple species in the coming decades. Threats include habitat loss, invasive plants, non-native predators, and introduced diseases. Climate change is predicted to increase the geographic extent and intensity of these threats, adding urgency to implementation of tractable conservation strategies. We present a set of actionable research and management approaches, identified by conservation practitioners in Hawai'i, that will be critical for the conservation of Hawaiian forest birds in the coming years. We also summarize recent progress on these conservation priorities. The threats facing Hawai'i's forest birds are not unique to Hawai'i, and successful conservation strategies developed in Hawai'i can serve as a model for other imperiled communities around the world, especially on islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Sandwich Islands are a relatively pristine volcanic archipelago in the Southern Ocean that experience high levels of natural disturbance. The archipelago spans the biological transition between the sub-Antarctic and maritime Antarctic. They host the southern boundary for some sub-Antarctic communities and the northern boundary for some maritime Antarctic communities. Vertebrate communities are dominated by Chinstrap and Macaroni penguins in the north and Adélie penguins in the south. Terrestrial plant and animal communities are less well differentiated; their distribution more influenced by the distribution of geothermally-warmed ground. We review current biodiversity knowledge, the influence of contemporary change on the archipelago, and their regional importance to Southern Ocean species. We pose questions on how to manage the islands in the contexts of climate change, fishing and human visitation. Climate change and fisheries will likely impact on the islands’ biota, but we conclude that introduced species pose the largest threat to biodiversity. Given the ephemeral nature of populations across all trophic levels, we suggest that the islands be managed as one unit rather than individually and we recommend practical changes to permitting and to increase the no-take zone in the existing Marine Protected Area to protect penguin foraging areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whole genome sequences, which can be provided even for non-model organisms owing to high-throughput sequencers, are valuable in enhancing the understanding of adaptive evolution. Metrosideros polymorpha, a tree species endemic to the Hawaiian Islands, occupies a wide range of ecological habitats and shows remarkable polymorphism in phenotypes among/within populations. The biological functions of genetic variations observed within this species could provide significant insights into the adaptive radiation found in a single species. Here de novo assembled genome sequences of M. polymorpha are presented to reveal basic genomic parameters about this species and to develop our knowledge of ecological divergences. The assembly yielded 304-Mbp genome sequences, half of which were covered by 19 scaffolds with >5 Mbp, and contained 30 K protein-coding genes. Demographic history inferred from the genome-wide heterozygosity indicated that this species experienced a dramatic rise and fall in the effective population size, possibly owing to past geographic or climatic changes in the Hawaiian Islands. This M. polymorpha genome assembly represents a high-quality genome resource useful for future functional analyses of both intra- and interspecies genetic variations or comparative genomics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Spatially explicit forest carbon (C) monitoring aids conservation and climate change mitigation efforts, yet few approaches have been developed specifically for the highly heterogeneous landscapes of oceanic island chains that continue to undergo rapid and extensive forest C change. We developed an approach for rapid mapping of aboveground C density (ACD; units = Mg or metric tons C ha-1) on islands at a spatial resolution of 30 m (0.09 ha) using a combination of cost-effective airborne LiDAR data and full-coverage satellite data. We used the approach to map forest ACD across the main Hawaiian Islands, comparing C stocks within and among islands, in protected and unprotected areas, and among forests dominated by native and invasive species. Results: Total forest aboveground C stock of the Hawaiian Islands was 36 Tg, and ACD distributions were extremely heterogeneous both within and across islands. Remotely sensed ACD was validated against U.S. Forest Service FIA plot inventory data (R2 = 0.67; RMSE = 30.4 Mg C ha-1). Geospatial analyses indicated the critical importance of forest type and canopy cover as predictors of mapped ACD patterns. Protection status was a strong determinant of forest C stock and density, but we found complex environmentally mediated responses of forest ACD to alien plant invasion. Conclusions: A combination of one-time airborne LiDAR data acquisition and satellite monitoring provides effective forest C mapping in the highly heterogeneous landscapes of the Hawaiian Islands. Our statistical approach yielded key insights into the drivers of ACD variation, and also makes possible future assessments of C storage change, derived on a repeat basis from free satellite data, without the need for additional LiDAR data. Changes in C stocks and densities of oceanic islands can thus be continually assessed in the face of rapid environmental changes such as biological invasions, drought, fire and land use. Such forest monitoring information can be used to promote sustainable forest use and conservation on islands in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, rising sea levels, and increases in storm intensity and frequency are developing issues for many coastal communities and will impact significant archaeological resources across the Pacific. The 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake and resulting tsunami that occurred off of Honshu, Japan in 2011 were natural disasters that provided the National Park Service with the opportunity to observe the effects of higher than normal waters on coastal resources at Pu’uhonua o Hōnaunau National Historical Park. The 2011 tsunami inundated areas of the park up to 1.06 meters and caused damage to multiple site types and features. Although tsunami are not events caused by climate change, this natural disaster and its effects allowed insights into the future of park archaeological resources when sea-level rise and island subsidence are considered. When park resources were examined in relation to future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, models demonstrate that the park faces significant losses to archaeological resources with as little as a 0.5-meter rise in sea level. When the results of these models are considered with the estimated rates of island subsidence, SLR in this area could reach one meter or more by the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

ABSTRACT Trends of annual maximum 1-day precipitation in three major Hawaiian Islands are investigated using a nonparametric Mann-Kendall method and Sen's test ( MKS). The records are from 24 stations on Oahu, Maui, and Hawaii, and the period of analysis ranges from 1960 to 2009. To complement the MKS method, a non-stationary three-parameter generalized extreme value ( GEV) distribution is also used to detect trends in precipitation extremes. Both methods demonstrate that negative trends prevail for Oahu and Maui but positive trends dominate the Island of Hawaii. The influence of the location and the scale parameter in the GEV model on different return levels (2-year, 20-year, and 100-year) are explicitly described. The return-level threshold values are found to change with time considerably. As a result, a rare storm with daily precipitation of 300 mm (20-year return period) in 1960 has become a rather common storm event (3-5-year return period) in 2009 on the Island of Hawaii. The opposite trend behavior in extreme events is observed on Oahu and Maui, where rainfall extremes have become less frequent in the last five decades. A positive relationship is found between the precipitation extremes and Southern Oscillation Index ( SOI), implying greater extreme events during La Niña years and the opposite for El Niño years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been configured as a regional climate model for the Hawaii region (HRCM) to assess the uncertainties associated with the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method using different warming increments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model experiments. Results from 15-km downscaling experiments using warming increments from 10 individual CMIP5 models for the two warming scenarios representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) are compared with experiments using multimodel mean warming increments. The results show that changes in 2-m temperatures, 10-m wind speed, rainfall, water vapor path, and trade wind inversion vary significantly among the individual model experiments. This translates into large uncertainties when picking one particular CMIP5 model to provide the warming increments for dynamical downscaling in the Hawaii region. The simulations also show that, despite the large interexperiment spread, a single downscaling experiment using multimodel mean warming increments gives very similar results to the ensemble mean of downscaling experiments using warming increments obtained from 10 individual CMIP5 models. Robust changes of the projected climate by the end of the twenty-first century in the Hawaii region shown by most downscaling experiments include increasing 2-m temperatures with stronger warming at higher elevations, a large increase in precipitable water, and an increase in the number of days with a trade wind inversion (TWI). Furthermore, most experiments agree on a reduction in TWI height and an increase in the TWI strength. Uncertainties in the projected changes in rainfall and 10-m wind speed are large and there is little consensus among the individual downscaling experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With climate warming, malaria in humans and birds at upper elevations is an emerging infectious disease because development of the parasite in the mosquito vector and vector life history are both temperature dependent. An enhanced-mosquito-movement model from climate warming predicts increased transmission of malaria at upper elevation sites that are too cool for parasite development in the mosquito vector. We evaluate this model with avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum) at 1,900-m elevation on the Island of Hawaii, with air temperatures too low for sporogony in the vector ( Culex quinquefasciatus). On a well-defined site over a 14-year period, 10 of 14 species of native and introduced birds became infected, several epizootics occurred, and the increase in prevalence was driven more by resident species than by mobile species that could have acquired their infections at lower elevations. Greater movement of infectious mosquitoes from lower elevations now permits avian malaria to spread at 1,900 m in Hawaii, in advance of climate warming at that elevation. The increase in malaria at upper elevations due to dispersal of infectious mosquitoes is a real alternative to temperature for the increased incidence of human malaria in tropical highlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intertidal zone of tropical islands is particularly poorly known. In contrast, temperate locations such as California's Monterey Bay are fairly well studied. However, even in these locations, studies have tended to focus on a few species or locations. Here we present the results of the first broadscale surveys of invertebrate, fish and algal species richness from a tropical island, Oahu, Hawaii, and a temperate mainland coast, Central California. Data were gathered through surveys of 10 sites in the early 1970s and again in the mid-1990s in San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties, California, and of nine sites in 2001-2005 on Oahu. Surveys were conducted in a similar manner allowing for a comparison between Oahu and Central California and, for California, a comparison between time periods 24 years apart. We report a previously undocumented richness of intertidal species in both locations: 516 for Oahu and 801 for Central California. Surprisingly, when differences in search efforts are controlled, overall (alpha) diversity appears to be similar between locations, although site level (beta) diversity is much higher in California. Species richness in California generally increased along a wave exposure gradient and distance from an urban area. Much higher numbers of both invasive and endemic species were found on Oahu. In California, more invertebrate species were found in the 1990s, likely due to an improvement in taxonomic resources since the 1970s, and species composition was different in the two surveys due to the high incidence of rare species. Although some southern species increased in number between the two time periods and some northern species decreased, we detected little evidence of change favoring southern or northern species. These results are in line with recent findings that water temperatures in the Monterey Bay have been in a cooling trend since the 1980s, in contrast to many locations elsewhere in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai'i during the past century. Statistically significant long-term (1913-2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test) in low-streamflow and base-flow records. These long-term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913-1943 and 1943-2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai'i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long-term trends reflect region-wide changes in climatic and land-cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943-2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base-flow records than in high-streamflow, peak-flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate-change projections and watershed responses to changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) in a mountainous Hawaii watershed was studied using the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM). The hydrologic response of the watershed was simulated for 43 years for different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and + 6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5%, ±10% and ±20%) on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under current, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. Vegetation leaf conductance and leaf area index were modified to reflect the increase in CO2 concentration. The relative departure of streamflow and ET from their levels during the reference scenarios was calculated on a monthly and annual basis. Results of this study indicate that the streamflow and ET are less sensitive to changes in temperature compared with changes in precipitation. However, temperature increase coupled with precipitation showed significant effect on ET and streamflow. Changes in leaf conductance and leaf area index with increasing CO2 concentration under A1F1 scenario had a significant effect on ET and subsequently on streamflow. Evapotranspiration is less sensitive than streamflow for a similar level of change in precipitation. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios, DHSVM predicted a change in ET by ±10% and streamflow between −51% and 90%. From the six ensemble mean scenarios for AR4 A1B, simulations suggest reduction in streamflow by 6.7% to 17.2%. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ∼11 mg/l to ∼20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9% to 37%. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ∼80% relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past century, tide gauges in Hawaii have recorded interdecadal sea level variations that are coherent along the island chain. The generation of this signal and its relationship to other interdecadal variability are investigated, with a focus on the last decade. Hawaii sea level is correlated with sea surface height (SSH) over a significant portion of the North Pacific Ocean, and with the Pacific–North America (PNA) index, which represents teleconnections between tropical and midlatitude atmospheric variations. Similar variations extend well below the thermocline in World Ocean Atlas temperature. Comparison with NCEP reanalysis wind and pressure shows that high (low) sea level phases around Hawaii are associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the Aleutian low. The associated wind stress curl pattern is dynamically consistent with observed sea level anomalies, suggesting that sea level at Hawaii represents large-scale changes that are directly wind-forced in concert with the PNA. Atmospheric modulation, as opposed to Rossby wave propagation, may explain the linkage of Hawaii sea level to North American sea level and ENSO events. A wind-forced, baroclinic Rossby wave model replicates some aspects of the interdecadal SSH variations and their spatial structure but fails to predict them in detail near Hawaii. The accuracy of wind products in this region and over this time period may be a limiting factor. Variations in mixed layer temperature due to surface heat flux anomalies may also contribute to the interdecadal sea level signal at Hawaii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pearl Harbor basin on the tropical oceanic island of O'ahu, Hawaii, exhibits extreme climatic gradients, rapid land-use change and groundwater use near sustainable yield. The basin's water usage and groundwater recharge, and hence water yield, are strongly influenced by the spatial distribution of land use. Current recharge is expected to drop by about one-eighth with the demise of the remaining sugar-cane and pineapple. Evidence suggests that lower rainfall and increased evaporation may well accompany warmer periods in Hawaii, and water-balance simulations indicate many scenarios having a significant decrease in available water. Land-use planners can use such results in tandem with multiobjective optimization models to generate alternative land-use plans and show trade-offs among objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the Hawaiian Islands are experiencing long‐term warming, spatial and temporal patterns are poorly characterized. Drawing on daily temperature records from 309 stations (1905–2017), we explored relationships of surface air temperatures (Tmax, Tmin, Tavg, and diurnal temperature range) to atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface variables. Statistical modeling of spatial patterns (2006–2017) highlighted the strong negative influence of elevation and moisture on air temperature and the effects of distance inland, cloud frequency, wind speed, and the local trade wind inversion on the elevation dependence of surface air temperature. We developed time series of sea level air temperature and surface lapse rate by modeling surface air temperature as a simple function of elevation and found a strong long‐term (1905–2017) warming trend in sea level Tmin, twice that of Tmax (+0.17 vs +0.07°C/decade), suggesting regional warming, possibly enhanced by urbanization and cloud cover effects. Removing this trend, sea level Tmax and Tmin tracked SST and rainfall at decadal time scales, while Tmax increased with periods of weakened trade winds. Sea level air temperatures correlated with North Pacific climate indices, reflecting the influence of regional circulation via SST, rain, clouds, and trade winds that modulate environmental warming across the Hawaiian Islands. Increasing (steeper) Tmax surface lapse rates for the 0‐ to 1,600‐m elevation range (into the cloud zone) over 1978–2017 coincide with observations of marine boundary layer drying and rising cloud base heights, suggesting a need to better understand elevation‐dependent warming in this tropical/subtropical maritime environment and associated changes to cloud formation and persistence. Key Points: Surface air temperature spatial patterns of the Hawaiian Islands are determined by topography, vegetation, and local atmospheric conditionsNew sea level air temperature analysis reveals strong warming at night, while daytime temperatures vary with North Pacific climate modesIncreasing daytime surface lapse rates appear linked to atmospheric drying within the marine boundary layer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing freshwater availability under changing climate and land-use conditions is critical for tropical islands, where small watershed sizes and unique hydrological features mean that freshwater resources are very sensitive to these changes. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the water budgets of the Nuuanu area watersheds (NAW), Oahu, Hawaii, and most importantly, on the potential of water harvesting from Nuuanu Reservoir 4 (NR4). The harvest approach concerns water diversion from the reservoir for artificially supplementing groundwater recharge through injection into the subsurface. Following calibration and validation at multiple streamflow gauging stations across the watershed, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess current and future water availability in the NR4. Multiple statistical evaluation criteria were used to demonstrate that SWAT adequately reproduced the observed daily streamflow hydrographs at all stations. Climate change analyses used the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The reported analysis suggests that the water-budget components of the NAW will generally be adversely affected by climate change. Compared to the baseline of 35 years, the amount of water available from the NR4 for harvesting will decrease by as much as 27%, and the corresponding outflow values will decrease by as much as 37%. Despite future temperature increases, the actual monthly watershed-scale evapotranspiration will decrease because of the overall decrease in rainfall and soil-moisture availability. Rainfall has the dominant control over the magnitude of water-budget components and harvesting compared with temperature and solar radiation. This study presents a blueprint for surface-water-harvesting scenarios, which may become a necessity across the Pacific and other islands in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]