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Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate climate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts of carbon. New England is one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States (>75% forested by land area), and forest carbon is a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a major source of uncertainty and risk for policies relying on forest carbon for climate mitigation, especially as climate change is projected to alter the intensity and extent of hurricanes. To date, most research into disturbance impacts on forest carbon stocks has focused on fire. Here, we show that a single hurricane in the region can down between 121 and 250 MMTCO 2 e or 4.6%-9.4% of the total aboveground forest carbon, much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests (16 MMTCO 2 e year -1 ). However, emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted. Reconstructing hurricanes with the HURRECON and EXPOS models across a range of historical and projected wind speeds, we find that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase in the extent of high-severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased wind speed also leads to unprecedented geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions traditionally less affected by hurricanes. Given that a single hurricane can emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestered by forests in New England, the status of these forests as a durable carbon sink is uncertain. Understanding the risks to forest carbon stocks from disturbances is necessary for decision-makers relying on forests as a NCS., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of 5 this transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, US. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more Total Hg (THg) (42±6 gha-1) than deciduous stands (30±4 gha-1). Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46±8 gha-1) and deciduous stands (45±7 gha-1). Soil properties (C, 10 %clay, and pH) explained 56% of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiple regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. We estimated Hg mean residence time (MRT) in the organic and mineral horizons at coniferous and deciduous stands using a simple two-box model. Organic horizon MRT were longer at coniferous stands 15 (183±44 yr) than deciduous stands (65±15 yr). Mineral soil horizon MRT values were also longer for coniferous stands (386±57 yr) than for deciduous stands (188±27 yr). We concluded that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizons are primarily affected by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching 20 rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper emerged from discussions between the authors about our shared and different perspectives of climate change and its impact on the social, emotional, physical, spiritual and cultural wellbeing of Aboriginal Peoples and mental health services in a rural region, heavily impacted in recent years by bushfires and floods. Here we discuss, from the lead authors personal perspective as a Gamilaraay Woman, the experience of Solastalgia as a critical impact of climate change on wellbeing. Specifically, we discuss the relationship of a connection to country from a Gamilaraay, first person perspective through a series of diary entries from the lead author. Authors are researchers from different cultural backgrounds, connected through a medical research futures fund research project, to promote resilience within Aboriginal communities and the health services sector in the New England, North West region. The lead author has cultural connections to some of the communities we work with and our work is informed by these connections. While this paper was written to express an Aboriginal perspective on climate change and wellbeing, it reflects our shared perspectives of how disasters such as bushfires impact the wellbeing of Aboriginal peoples. We also explore the connection between the impact of localised, recurring natural disasters and the increasing demands on mental health services in regional and rural areas and discuss what this means with Aboriginal and non‐Indigenous mental health nurses and researchers working in regional and rural areas where access to mental health services often poses considerable challenges. From our perspective, mental health research and nursing play an important role in walking alongside Aboriginal Peoples as we explore, respond and create resilience to the ever‐present influence that climate change is having on our lives, communities, country and workplaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States (U.S.). This paper assesses how climate change may influence LD incidence in the eastern and upper Midwestern U.S. and the associated economic burden. We estimated future Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability and LD incidence with a by-degree approach using variables from an ensemble of multiple climate models. We then applied estimates for present-day and projected habitat suitability for I. scapularis, present-day presence of Borrelia burgdorferi, and projected climatological variables to model reported LD incidence at the county level among adults, children, and the total population. Finally, we applied an estimate of healthcare expenses to project economic impacts. We show an overall increase in LD cases with regional variation. We estimate an increase in incidence in New England and the upper Midwestern U.S. and a concurrent decrease in incidence in Virginia and North Carolina. At 3°C of national warming from the 1986–2015 baseline climate, we project approximately 55,000 LD cases, a 38-percent increase from present-day estimates. At 6°C of warming, our most extreme scenario, we project approximately 92,000 LD cases in the region, an increase of 145 percent relative to current levels. Annual LD-related healthcare expenses at 3°C of warming are estimated to be $236 million (2021 dollars), approximately 38 percent greater than present-day. These results may inform decision-makers tasked with addressing climate risks, the public, and healthcare professionals preparing for treatment and prevention of LD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, future conditions and impacts facing coastal habitats are unclear to coastal resource managers. Adaptive management strategies have become an important tactic to compensate for the unknown environmental conditions that coastal managers and restoration ecologists face. Adaptive management requires extensive planning and resources, which can act as barriers to achieve a successful project. These barriers also create challenges in incorporating adaptive management into climate change adaptation strategies. This case study describes and analyzes the Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council's approach to overcome these challenges to implement a successful adaptive management project to restore a drowning salt marsh using the climate change adaptation strategy, sediment enhancement, at Quonochontaug Pond in Charlestown, RI. Through effective communication and active stakeholder involvement, this project successfully incorporated interdisciplinary partner and stakeholder collaborations and developed an iterative learning strategy that highlights the adaptive management method., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Due to global climate change, the effect of extreme weather on power systems has attracted extensive attention. In the prior-art grid resilience studies, the hurricanes or wildfires are mainly defended in terms of expected line damages, while they are prone to trigger short-circuit fault (SCF) evolved with dynamic influence in reality. In this paper, a fragile model is developed to evaluate the nodal SCF probability considering the insulation aging of equipment and extreme weather condition. Then, a response framework for extreme weather events is developed for a transmission system to defend the cascading impacts of expected SCFs. Specifically, switches are shifted to restrain the out-of-range short-circuit currents (SCCs) so that to ensure the SCFs can be removed by circuit breakers, generation rescheduling and load shedding are arranged to maintain the post-fault system transient stability. The above measures are optimized simultaneously by an integrated Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP). Considering the error or uncertainty of weather event forecasts, a multi-state model is established to provide the most cost-effective grid resilience enhancement scheme, in which the expected urgent adaptions of the initial scheme subject to weather state transition is included in the overall cost. The proposed model and techniques are validated using the IEEE 39-bus New-England test system and realistic meteorological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cranberry, a commodity of social, cultural, and economic importance to New England, is under threat due to climatic change in this region of the United States. Yet, previous research reveals that cranberry growers have mixed attitudes about the anthropogenic roots of climate change, with many being skeptical. Building on the researchers' analysis of the personal and ecological conditions that affect climate change attitudes among cranberry growers, this paper examines the effect that key actors in the growers' social networks have on those attitudes. Through statistical analysis of survey data and content analysis of two important cranberry newsletters, the paper finds that cranberry growers' perceived importance of two key cranberry growing institutions, the "sociopolitically focused" Cape Cod Cranberry Growers' Association and the "technically focused" University of Massachusetts Cranberry Station, as well as connections to other cranberry growers, is associated in nuanced ways with growers' climate change attitudes. Drawing on the sociological theory of "social capital," the paper examines how these social ties to key actors/institutions may result in greater threat perception or worry about climate change. It then considers how "green ties," if harnessed and supported by these important actors in the cranberry grower network, might significantly mitigate climate change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing and diversifying market opportunities for lesser known yet abundant seafood species has been a successful strategy for seafood businesses in the Northeast United States. Since climate change and other stressors are currently threatening the economic vitality of New England's seafood industry, it is important to identify if there are lesser-known species that could simultaneously support additional market opportunities and remain resilient in a warming climate. We developed a quantitative definition for the term "underutilized species'' based on five criteria derived from science-based sustainable fishing metrics. Using this definition, we evaluated 47 stocks in the Northeast United States during the initial time period of 2013-2017 to identify seven underutilized finfish species that could be considered for new market opportunities as part of a climate-smart approach: 1) Acadian redfish (Sebastes fasciatus), 2) Atlantic pollock (Pollachius virens), 3) butterfish (Peprilus triacanthus), 4) haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), 5) scup (Stenotomus chrysops), 6) silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis), and 7) white hake (Urophycis tenuis). The climate resiliency of these resulting seven species was then evaluated using a framework consisting of species-specific metrics on climate sensitivity, directionality (of responses to climate impacts) and future habitat availability under warming scenarios. Our results show that assessing underutilized species on a regular basis and evaluating their ongoing responses to climate change can be a part of a climate-smart approach towards building more diversified and adaptive markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) A tractable mathematical model for joint consideration of static and dynamic security in TEP (S&DSTEP) problems with large-scale wind power integration is proposed to improve the effectiveness of power systems in addressing both static security violations and transient instability. (2) The FCT-based N- k contingency constraints, which consider the correlation of the k component failures in an N- k contingency, are integrated into the proposed S&DSTEP model to find a balance between cost-effectiveness and safety in the planning scheme. Additionally, transient stability constraints are constructed in a linear form using the EEAC-based transient stability assessment (TSA) method, instead of DAEs. (3) An effective solution based on a decomposition strategy is proposed to address the S&DSTEP problem. The problem is split into a main problem for TEP and two subproblems for static security evaluation (SSE) and TSA. The integration of large-scale wind power into the power system is a global trend in response to climate change, however, the intermittent nature of wind power presents new challenges for planners. Conventional transmission expansion planning (TEP) methods, which only consider N-1 static security, may not ensure the security of multiple contingencies and transient stability in a large-scale wind power integration scenario. Incorporating N- k -based static constraints and dynamic constraints, such as differential-algebraic-equations-(DAEs)-based transient stability constraints, into TEP can result in a heavy computational burden and render the TEP model intractable. This paper proposes a tractable mathematical model (S&DSTEP) for joint consideration of static and dynamic security in TEP with wind power. The uncertain wind power generation is captured through selected scenarios and the model is divided into a TEP master problem and multiple sub-problems for evaluating static security and transient stability. Static security is determined by the use of fault chain theory (FCT), avoiding the need for enumerating all N- k contingencies, thus reducing the computational burden. Transient stability is analyzed through the use of stabilizing cuts generated from the extended equal-area criteria (EEAC) rather than dynamic constraints expressed as DAEs. The proposed model is verified on the modified New England 39-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system, demonstrating its ability to consider transient stability while being more computationally efficient compared to the robust method that directly incorporates all contingency scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between climate change and disturbances affects forest composition and dynamics, but most of our empirical knowledge comes from short‐term studies of the past century. Pollen and charcoal analyses of lake sediment cores retrieved from three sites in Nova Scotia were used to produce a landscape‐level analysis of long‐term forest cover dynamics and fire disturbances of the past ~2500 years. The present‐day forests had been established by that time, although a long‐term increase in Picea at the expense of northern hardwoods was seen at all sites, consistent with other pollen records found across New England and Eastern Canada. The driving influences of forest change prior to European settlement were a combination of climate and disturbance, acting on site characteristics of each region. Fires were relatively infrequent in this region and did not have a major impact on the evolution of the forests of central Nova Scotia. Changes in the relative abundances of the tree taxa occurred in response to long‐term cooling during the past 3000 years and century‐scale climate variability such as the Little Ice Age (ce 1450–1850) and Medieval Warm Period (ce 800–1300). The impact of climate variability on the fire regime depends on the landscape and vegetation type. "Borealization" of the Acadian Forest, noted during the period of European colonization, has been occurring for millennia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to investigate the presence of trends in extreme precipitation (denoted MAXP and defined as the annual maximum daily precipitation depth) time series for coastal northern New England and to assess changes in the magnitude of the so-called 100-year storm. MAXP depths from 48 stations with long, continuous records in Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts were analyzed. At those same stations, the number of daily precipitation depths ≥2 in. (51 mm, denoted as GT2in) was also quantified for each year. Although the seasonally averaged MAXP was found to be fairly uniform throughout the year, the frequency of MAXP is highest during August through October, the typical hurricane season in New England. The presence of trends in MAXP and GT2in was evaluated over four time frames (1954-2005, 1954-2008, 1970-2005, and 1970-2008) using two statistical methods (linear regression and the Mann-Kendall trend test) and at two scales (at-site and regional). The trend analysis over the time period 1954-2005 indicated that MAXP was amazingly stationary; however, a trend in GT2in was found at some stations. More trends in both MAXP and GT2in were present in the time period 1954-2008. The majority of stations in southern New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts showed evidence of trends in MAXP (but not GT2in) for the time period 1970-2008. That the number of trends in MAXP increased despite the shorter record length suggests a strong increase in the magnitude of extreme precipitation in northern coastal New England in the last few decades. The stationarity of the 1954-2005 record was confirmed by the regional trend analysis, as was the presence of stronger trends in coastal stations when the record was extended through 2008. Most stations that had trends in MAXP also had trends in GT2in. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was used to estimate 100-year precipitation depth quantiles for the 1954-2005 record, which were then compared with Technical Paper No. 40 (TP-40) 100-year, 24-h precipitation depths. Estimates for stations along coastal Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine all exceeded 7 in. (180 mm) and exceeded TP-40 by 1 in. (25 mm) or more. Stations in northeastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire, and southern Maine exceeded 8 in. (200 mm) and also exceeded TP-40 estimates by more than 2 in. (51 mm). These findings indicate that TP-40 underrepresents coastal storm depths. This study, as well as recent record-breaking events in northern New England, strongly suggests the need for updating of design storm estimates. Furthermore, extreme precipitation events of longer than one-day duration have caused large-scale flooding in the region over the last decade. The magnitude of longer duration storms (particularly two-day storms) may also be increasing, calling for engineered infrastructure that can accommodate increases in both storm magnitude and duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the linkage between climate and interspecific plant interactions in New England salt marshes. Because harsh edaphic conditions in marshes can be ameliorated by neighboring plants, plant neighbors can have net competitive or facilitative interactions, depending on ambient physical stresses. In particular, high soil salinities, which are largely controlled by solar radiation and the evaporation of marsh porewater, can be ameliorated by plant neighbors under stressful conditions leading to facilitative interactions. Under less stressful edaphic conditions, these same neighbors may be competitors. In this paper, we use this mechanistic understanding of marsh plant interactions to examine the hypothesis that latitudinal and inter-annual variation in climate can influence the nature and strength of marsh plant species interactions. We quantified the relationship between climate and species interactions by transplanting marsh plants into ambient vegetation and unvegetated bare patches at sites north and south of Cape Cod, a major biogeographic barrier on the east coast of North America. We hypothesized that the cooler climate north of Cape Cod would lead to fewer positive interactions among marsh plants. We found both latitudinal and inter-annual variation in the neighbor relations of marsh plants that paralleled latitudinal differences in temperature and salinity. South of Cape Cod, plant neighbor interactions tended to be more facilitative, whereas north of Cape Cod, plant neighbor interactions were more competitive. At all sites, soil salinity increased and plant neighbor interactions were more facilitative in warmer versus cooler years. Our results show that interspecific interactions can be strikingly linked to climate, but also reveal that because the sensitivity of specific species interactions to climatic variation is highly variable, predicting how entire communities will respond to climate change will be difficult, even in relatively simple, well-studied systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ski tourism in New England is a multi-billion dollar industry vulnerable to both economic shifts and environmental change. New England ski resorts are primarily located in rural communities; and the impact of a closure can therefore be devastating. This paper uses West Windsor, Vermont - and the closure of the ski resort on Ascutney Mountain - as a case study to show the importance of community resilience and to demonstrate some of the steps towns can take to overcome the loss of a community's primary industry. The town of West Windsor - with the help of local non-profits - developed a plan to transform the mountain into a year-round recreation area. The town worked with the Trust for Public Land (TPL) to secure the money needed to purchase the property of the closed resort and ensured the land would be conserved and available for future tourism activities. As smaller ski resort towns across the northeast United States continue to struggle in the face of both the impacts of climate change and economic shifts that favor larger operations; the experience of West Windsor suggests that rural communities can maintain viable tourism economies through collaborations that aim to redevelop existing tourism assets in creative ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geographic range of blastomycosis is thought to include New England, but documentation is sparse. We report 5 cases of infection with Blastomyces dermatitidis that were likely acquired in New England between 2011 and 2021. Our experience suggests that chart coding for the diagnosis of blastomycosis is imprecise and that mandatory reporting might help resolve uncertainties about the prevalence and extent of blastomycosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the impacts of climate change become more severe throughout the global oceans, fisheries managers will be increasingly challenged to rebuild stocks exhibiting declining productivity. In such cases, detailed knowledge of species life history will be necessary to both restrict harvest and manage other environmental conditions, where possible, that impact survivorship. A current example of these challenges, the Southern New England/Mid‐Atlantic Bight winter flounder stock remains in a persistently depleted state due to a combination of past harvest and the effects of climate change mediated through increased predation. To explore the recovery capacity of a subpopulation of this stock, a life‐cycle model was fit to 29 year classes of stage‐specific winter flounder data from surveys conducted in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island and used to project future subpopulation abundance. Supporting a prevailing hypothesis, the results indicated that environmental factors influencing juvenile mortality were largely responsible for inhibiting recovery. Furthermore, recovery of the subpopulation to past levels of abundance was determined to be unlikely even under optimistic future conditions resulting from aggressive management interventions. Taken together, the findings of this work pose important questions regarding the realism of assessing climate‐challenged populations against biological reference points set under past environmental regimes and the degree to which harvest restrictions to promote recovery of such stocks should be allowed to limit warm‐water fisheries thriving in a warming ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of integrating environmental concerns into energy policy decision making is increasingly addressed, not least related to climate change. Although the United States, unlike the EU, did not sign the Kyoto Protocol, several U.S. states promote renewable electricity (RES-E), and some of these initiatives are linked to climate-change mitigation efforts. The present article assesses in this connection the six New England states of the United States, comparing their efforts of integrating RES-E with climate change to the Nordic countries in Europe. In order to explain different approaches, the article focuses on the importance of different EU and U.S. multilevel governing structures. The analysis indicates that the New England states' RES-E promotion thus far has not been substantially integrated with climate-change concerns, whereas in the EU's more top-down approach, climate change figures more prominently vis-à-vis RES-E. EU policies represent an increasingly important driver for the Nordic countries. In the United States, on the other hand, it remains an open question as to how future federal policy efforts will relate to existing policies at the state level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Baseflows are one of the important components of streamflows and the influences of climate change and variability on changes in baseflows in space and time can aid in the management of low flows in watersheds. This study focuses on influences of climate variability on baseflows manifested through individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations (viz., Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)). Statistically significant differences in monthly baseflows in temporal windows that coincide with two phases (i.e., cool or warm; El Niño or La Niña) of oscillations at 574 gauging across least anthropogenically influenced across the continental the U.S. are evaluated in this study. Nonparametric statistical hypothesis tests are used to analyze these changes. Results from the analyses indicate that the influences of PDO and AMO on baseflows are the largest than other oscillations, and baseflows at only 12.2% of all sites were impacted by ENSO. The New England (01), Mid Atlantic (02), and Souris-Red-Rainy (09) regions displayed statistically significant differences in baseflow in two phases and with dominant influence attributed to the PDO cool phase. A total of 143 stations with higher baseflow median values during NAO warm/cool phase and El Niño. It is noted that the NAO cool phase/El Niño influences regional baseflows in the central U.S. and the NAO warm phase/ La Niña impacts baseflows in the southeastern U.S. The number of sites at which the baseflows were impacted by coupled oscillations was larger than those influenced by one oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined changes in the native vascular flora of Franklin County, Massachusetts, a largely rural county with a long history of botanical investigation. The historical flora was documented using herbarium specimens and literature records, and the current flora was assessed in 10 years of field work starting in 2010. The county contains 26 towns, and apparent changes were based on town-level presence/absence. In total, 1205 species were recorded. Apparent losses from the historical flora totaled 5.6% of species, and apparent gains totaled 4.2%. Several families exhibited greater declines than the flora as a whole, including the Orchidaceae, Ophioglossaceae, Ranunculaceae, and Violaceae. Species dependent on fungi during at least part of their life cycle declined relative to other species, but were concentrated in a small group of families, including the Orchidaceae and Ophioglossaceae. Species with fleshy fruits increased relative to those with ant-dispersed seeds. Annuals increased relative to biennials and perennials, probably due to the increasing extent of ruderal habitats. Graminoids showed greater apparent increases than forbs, which may reflect undercollecting of the former taxa during the historical period. Species changes were related to habitat, with marked increases in plants of ruderal habitats, but other apparent changes may reflect sampling biases. Northern taxa appear to be declining relative to other species, particularly in towns at lower elevations. This study is one of several that have examined floristic changes in the northeastern United States and is part of a nascent literature suggesting that climate changes have altered the southern New England flora in the past century. Additional documentation of regional floras is needed to facilitate assessments of future floristic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape and climate changes have the potential to create or exacerbate problems with stormwater management, high flows, and flooding. In New England, four plausible land-use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders to give insight to the effects on ecosystem services of different trajectories of socio-economic connectedness and natural resource innovation. With respect to water, the service of greatest interest to New England stakeholders is the reduction of stormwater and flooding. To assess the effects of these land-use scenarios, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to two watersheds under two climates. Differences in land use had minimal effects on the water balance but did affect high flows and the contribution of storm runoff to streamflow. For most scenarios, the effect on high flows was small. For one scenario—envisioned to have global socio-economic connectedness and low levels of natural resource innovation—growth in impervious areas increased the annual maximum daily flow by 10%, similar to the 5–15% increase attributable to climate change. Under modest population growth, land-use decisions have little effect on storm runoff and high flows; however, for the two scenarios characterized by global socio-economic connectedness, differences in choices regarding land use and impervious area have a large impact on the potential for flooding. Results also indicate a potential interaction between climate and land use with a shift to more high flows resulting from heavy rains than from snowmelt. These results can help inform land use and development, especially when combined with assessments of effects on other ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have large societal impacts, both in fatalities and economic losses. This study examines the response of TC rainfall to climate change projected under future anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, focusing on Hurricane Irene, which produced severe flooding across the Northeastern United States in August 2011. Numerical simulations are made with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, placing Irene in the present‐day climate and one projected for the end of 21st century climate represented by Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Projected future changes to surface and atmospheric temperature lead to a storm rainfall increase of 32% relative to the control run, exceeding the rate expected by the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation given a ~3‐K lower atmospheric warming. Analyses of the atmospheric water balance highlight contributions to the increase in rainfall rate from both increased circulation strength and atmospheric moisture. Storm rainfall rate shows contrasting response to global warming during TC and extratropical transition periods. During the TC phase, Irene shows a significant increase of storm rainfall rate in inner core regions. This increase shifts to outer rainbands as Irene undergoes extratropical transition, collocated with the maximum tangential wind increase and the change of secondary circulation strength. Changes of storm track from the control run to global warming projections play a role in the change of spatial rainfall pattern. Distinct roles of surface and atmospheric warming in storm rainfall and structure changes are also examined. Plain Language Summary: Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can undergo the process of extratropical transition, through which storm structure and dynamics transform, enabling them to persist (and extend their hazards) to middle‐ and high‐latitude regions, which have large‐scale conditions hostile to TCs. These so‐called post‐TCs can produce enhanced rainfall relative to typical TCs, leading to more severe flood hazards. For example, Hurricane Irene (2011) produced extreme flooding along the East Coast of the United States and Canada, especially in mid‐Atlantic regions and New England. Future changes of post‐TCs have strong implications for flood risk assessment and management. To provide new insights on this issue, we conducted a case study focusing on Hurricane Irene (2011) by placing Irene in a projected warmer climate, which allows us to examine aspects of the influence of climate change on future storm rainfall rate. Irene produced heavier rainfall in a warming climate than the current climate. This increase is mainly concentrated in the inner core region at the TC phase and shifts to outer regions at the post‐TC phase. The magnitude of Irene rainfall rate increase exceeds the rate of water vapor increase under the warmer climate, highlighting increased flood risk in the future. Key Points: Increase of Irene rain rate is observed in inner core regions for tropical cyclone phase but in outer rainbands during transition periodIncrease of Irene rain rate exceeds the rate of water vapor increase in a warming climate, suggesting the importance of dynamical effects [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering marine ecosystem and fish stock dynamics worldwide. These effects add to scientific uncertainties that compromise fisheries management. Among the strategies that can respond to climate change and scientific uncertainty, modifications to harvest control rules (HCRs) might be among the most direct and impactful. We used a bioeconomic model to compare alternative HCRs in terms of biomass, yield, and profits in response to potential effects of climate change and scientific uncertainty, specifically simulated retrospective patterns, for 14 stocks on the Northeast Shelf of the United States. Our results suggest that a responsive HCR in which fishing mortality changes with measured changes in biomass builds inherent resilience to adverse effects of both climate change and scientific uncertainty relative to an HCR in which fishing mortality is precautionary but fixed. This was despite that fact that the HCR algorithm did not account for the climate effects modelled. A fixed fishing mortality HCR was effective when climate effects were negligible or beneficial. Scientific uncertainty further reduced biomass, yield, and profits by about the same magnitude as climate change. Our results suggest that simple changes to HCRs can be a readily implementable strategy for responding to climate change and scientific uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cranberry growers in New England are increasingly pressured by negative effects associated with global climate change, some of which are familiar to this group (such as precipitation fluctuations and pest pressures), others that are rather new (such as warmer winters that threaten needed chill hours for the plants to bloom). The first study of this population of its kind, we use a survey, supplemented with observations and interviews, to assess Massachusetts cranberry grower attitudes towards climate change, and whether certain conditions of production might be associated with their attitudes. Our findings suggest that certain personal and ecological conditions are associated with greater worry of climate change effects, and that communal conditions of the cranberry grower social network provide some ways to cope with a warming climate. While the cranberry growing community has created a strong social network that has allowed it to sustain production, a warming planet will likely require significant change in order to overcome general attitudes of climate skepticism so that cranberry production may continue in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleotemperature reconstructions are essential for distinguishing anthropogenic climate change from natural variability. An emerging method in paleolimnology is the use of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) in sediments to reconstruct temperature, but their application is hindered by a limited understanding of their sources, seasonal production, and transport. Here, we report seasonally resolved measurements of brGDGT production in the water column, in catchment soils, and in a sediment core from Basin Pond, a small, deep inland lake in Maine, USA. We find similar brGDGT distributions in both water column and lake sediment samples but the catchment soils have distinct brGDGT distributions suggesting that (1) brGDGTs are produced within the lake and (2) this in situ production dominates the down-core sedimentary signal. Seasonally, depth-resolved measurements indicate that most brGDGT production occurs in late fall, and at intermediate depths (18–30 m) in the water column. We utilize these observations to help interpret a Basin Pond brGDGT-based temperature reconstruction spanning the past 900 years. This record exhibits trends similar to a pollen record from the same site and also to regional and global syntheses of terrestrial temperatures over the last millennium. However, the Basin Pond temperature record shows higher-frequency variability than has previously been captured by such an archive in the northeastern United States, potentially attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation and volcanic or solar activity. This first brGDGT-based multi-centennial paleoreconstruction from this region contributes to our understanding of the production and fate of brGDGTs in lacustrine systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting ecological responses to climate change, invasion, and their interaction must rely on understanding underlying mechanisms. However, such forecasts require extrapolation into new locations and environments. We linked demography and environment using experimental biogeography to forecast invasive and native species' potential ranges under present and future climate in New England, United States to overcome issues of extrapolation in novel environments. We studied two potentially nonequilibrium invasive plants' distributions, Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) and Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry), each paired with their native ecological analogs to better understand demographic drivers of invasions. Our models predict that climate change will considerably reduce establishment of a currently prolific invader (A. petiolata) throughout New England driven by poor demographic performance in warmer climates. In contrast, invasion of B. thunbergii will be facilitated because of higher growth and germination in warmer climates, with higher likelihood to establish farther north and in closed canopy habitats in the south. Invasion success is in high fecundity for both invasive species and demographic compensation for A. petiolata relative to native analogs. For A. petiolata, simulations suggest that eradication efforts would require unrealistic efficiency; hence, management should focus on inhibiting spread into colder, currently unoccupied areas, understanding source--sink dynamics, and understanding community dynamics should A. petiolata (which is allelopathic) decline. Our results--based on considerable differences with correlative occurrence models typically used for such biogeographic forecasts--suggest the urgency of incorporating mechanism into range forecasting and invasion management to understand how climate change may alter current invasion patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest fragmentation is a ubiquitous, ongoing global phenomenon with profound impacts on the growing conditions of the world's remaining forest. The temperate broadleaf forest makes a large contribution to the global terrestrial carbon sink but is also the most heavily fragmented forest biome in the world. We use field measurements and geospatial analyses to characterize carbon dynamics in temperate broadleaf forest fragments. We show that forest growth and biomass increase by 89 ± 17% and 64 ± 12%, respectively, from the forest interior to edge, but ecosystem edge enhancements are not currently captured by models or approaches to quantifying regional C balance. To the extent that the findings from our research represent the forest of southern New England in the United States, we provide a preliminary estimate that edge growth enhancement could increase estimates of the region's carbon uptake and storage by 13 ± 3% and 10 ± 1%, respectively. However, we also find that forest growth near the edge declines three times faster than that in the interior in response to heat stress during the growing season. Using climate projections, we show that future heat stress could reduce the forest edge growth enhancement by one-third by the end of the century. These findings contrast studies of edge effects in the world's other major forest biomes and indicate that the strength of the temperate broadleaf forest carbon sink and its capacity to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions may be stronger, but also more sensitive to climate change than previous estimates suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve fishery management, there is an increasing need to understand the long-term consequences of natural and anthropogenic climate variability for ecological systems. New England’s iconic cod populations have been in decline for several decades and have recently reached unprecedented lows. We find that 17% of the overall decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980 can be attributed to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This is a consequence of three results: i) a 1-unit increase in the NAO winter index is associated with a 17% decrease in the spring biomass of age-1 cod the following year; ii) this NAO-driven decrease persists as the affected cohort matures; iii) fishing practices appear to exacerbate NAO’s direct biological effect such that, since 1913, a 1-unit increase in the NAO index lowers subsequent cod catch for up to 19 years. The Georges Bank cod stock displays similar patterns. Because we statistically detect a delay between the NAO and subsequent declines in adult biomass, our findings imply that observed current NAO conditions can be used in stock forecasts, providing lead time for adaptive policy. More broadly, our approach can inform forecasting efforts for other fish populations strongly affected by natural and anthropogenic climatic variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the impact of coniferous and deciduous vegetation in northern New England on the mean residence times (MRTs) of various metals. Topics include a box model for the estimation of metal residence in the organic horizons of both major metals and trace metals, the soil properties of secondary growth forest stands at mountain sites, and the projected impacts of climate change on forests in the region.

Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of such a transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, USA. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more total Hg (THg; 42±6 g ha-1/ than deciduous stands (30±4 g ha-1/. Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46±8 g ha-1/ and deciduous stands (45±7 g ha-1/. Soil properties (C, % clay, and pH) explained 56% of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiply regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. Using allometric equations, we estimated that aboveground accumulation of Hg in foliage and woody biomass was similar between vegetation types but that coniferous stands have significantly smaller annual litterfall fluxes (0.03 g ha-1 yr-1/ than deciduous stands (0.24 g ha-1 yr-1/. We conclude that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizon Hg accumulation is primarily controlled by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecology, economy, and cultural heritage of New England is grounded in its seasonal climate, and this seasonality is now changing as the world warms due to human activity. This research uses temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) to analyze annual and seasonal temperature changes in the New England region of the United States from 1900 to 2020 at the regional and state levels. Results show four broad trends: (1) New England and each of the states (annually and seasonally) have warmed considerably between 1900 and 2020; (2) all of the states and the region as a whole show three general periods of change (warming, cooling, and then warming again); (3) the winter season is experiencing the greatest warming; and (4) the minimum temperatures are generally warming more than the average and maximum temperatures, especially since the 1980s. The average annual temperature (analyzed at the 10-year and the five-year average levels) for every state, and New England as a whole, has increased greater than 1.5 °C from 1900 to 2020. This warming is diminishing the distinctive four-season climate of New England, resulting in changes to the region's ecology and threatening the rural economies throughout the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is the signature global issue of our time. This is not just because of climate change itself, but also because of the host of socioeconomic and physical impacts that will result from rising temperatures globally. But fundamentally for scholars of international relations, climate change confronts the policy limitations of sovereignty and its implications for global action directly. Because of the lack of effective global and even national climate change policy action, policy initiatives to confront climate change must focus on levels below the global, even though economic models suggest that global policy provision might be the most efficient way to target the implications of climate change. Thus, this study centers on the complexity of climate change policymaking by focusing attention on the evolution of climate change policy action in the New England region, the State of Connecticut, and its municipalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past three decades, Narragansett Bay has undergone various ecological changes, including significant decreases in water column chlorophyll a concentrations, benthic oxygen uptake, and benthic nutrient regeneration rates. To add to this portrait of change, we measured the net flux of N across the sediment-water interface over an annual cycle using the N/Ar technique at seven sites in the bay for comparison with measurements made decades ago. Net denitrification rates ranged from about 10-90 μmol N-N m h over the year. Denitrification rates were not significantly different among sites and had no clear correlation with temperature. Net nitrogen fixation (−5 to −650 μmol N-N m h) was measured at three sites and only observed in summer (June-August). Neither denitrification nor nitrogen fixation exhibited a consistent relationship with sediment oxygen demand or with fluxes of nitrite, nitrate, ammonium, total dissolved inorganic nitrogen, or dissolved inorganic phosphate across all stations. In contrast to the mid-bay historical site where denitrification rates have declined, denitrification rates in the Providence River Estuary have not changed significantly over the past 30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series of American lobster ( Homarus americanus) postlarval settlement from southern New England to Atlantic Canada exhibit many common features, and a cluster analysis indicates a block of regions extending from Massachusetts to Maine that have coherent interannual variations. The spatial scale of this block suggests that variability in settlement is related to large-scale, rather than local, processes. We examined the association between settlement at six reference regions and monthly mean atmospheric conditions (temperature, geopotential height, westerly and southerly wind components, and wind curl) from the North American Regional Reanalysis. We first extracted the dominant modes of variability in monthly averaged geopotential height, temperature, and wind curl. The leading mode from September, which represents high geopotential height, warm temperatures, and negative wind curl throughout the study area, was strongly correlated with settlement at most of the regions. The third mode from August, which represents enhanced southwesterly winds, was correlated with settlement in Rhode Island. Correlations between local atmospheric conditions and lobster settlement confirm the principal component results. Settlement was correlated to varying degrees with geopotential height (positive), temperature (positive) and wind curl (negative) with lobster settlement at the northern sites, with temperature being a stronger indicator in the north and curl a stronger indicator in the south. Rhode Island settlement was strongly correlated with August westerly winds. The correlation between settlement and atmospheric conditions could improve our understanding of stock-recruit relationships for lobster populations and provides one mechanism for how climate change could impact lobsters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen inputs restructure ecosystems and can interact with other agents of ecological change and potentially intensify them. To examine the effects of nitrogen combined with those of elevation and competition, in 2005 we mapped vegetation and elevation within experimental plots that have been fertilized since 1970 in Great Sippewissett salt marsh, Cape Cod, MA, USA and compared the resulting effects on marsh vegetation. Decadal-scale chronic nutrient enrichment forced changes in cover and spatial distribution of different species. With increasing enrichment, there was a shift in species cover primarily involving loss of Spartina alterniflora and an increase in Distichlis spicata. Percent cover of near monocultures increased with nitrogen fertilization, owing mainly to the proliferation of D. spicata. The experimental fertilization prompted a shift from the short form of S. alterniflora to taller forms, hence increasing above-ground biomass, where this species managed to remain. Chronic enrichment increased upper and lower limits of the elevation range within which certain species occurred. The shift to increased cover of D. spicata was also associated with faster accretion of the marsh surface where this species was dominant, but not where S. alterniflora was dominant. Interactions among nutrient supply, elevation, and competition altered the direction of competitive success among different species of marsh plants, and forced changes in the spatial distribution and composition of the salt marsh plant communities. The results imply that there will be parallel changes in New England salt marshes owing to the widespread eutrophication of coastal waters and the increasing sea level rise. Knowing the mechanisms structuring marsh vegetative cover, and their role in modification of salt marsh accretion, may provide background with which to manage maintenance of affected coastal wetlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variation in physical factors, such as slope, orientation, and wind exposure, shapes thermal conditions. Variation in substrate size is common in many habitats, but its thermal consequences for organisms are not well characterized. Larger substrates should remain more thermally stable and act as thermal refuges for associated organisms during short, thermally stressful periods such as midday temperature peaks or tidal exposure. In observations and a transplant and thermal integration experiment, we found that larger rock substrates stayed cooler and facilitated greater survival of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides in the high intertidal relative to small substrates during the hot summer months in southern New England, USA. However, in thermally benign northern New England, rock substrate size had no effect on barnacle distributions, indicating that the thermal effects of substrate size are mediated by regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong benthic-pelagic coupling is an important characteristic of shallow coastal marine ecosystems. Building upon a rich history of benthic metabolism data, we measured oxygen uptake and nutrient fluxes across the sediment-water interface along a gradient of water column primary production in Narragansett Bay, RI (USA). Despite the strong gradients seen in water column production, sediment oxygen demand (SOD) and benthic nutrient fluxes did not exhibit a clear spatial pattern. Some of our sites had been studied in the 1970s and 1980s and thus allowed historical comparison. At these sites, we found that SOD and benthic fluxes have not changed uniformly throughout Narragansett Bay. In the uppermost portion of the bay, the Providence River Estuary, we observed a significant decrease in dissolved inorganic phosphorus fluxes which we attribute to management interventions. At another upper bay site, we observed significant declines in SOD and dissolved inorganic nitrogen fluxes which may be linked to climate-induced decreases in water column primary production and shifts in bloom phenology. In the 1970s, benthic nutrient regeneration supplied 50% to over 200% of the N and P needed to support primary production by phytoplankton. Summer nutrient regeneration in the Providence River Estuary and Upper bay now may only supply some 5-30% of the N and 3-20% of the P phytoplankton demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing and measuring the extent of change at forest edges is important for making management decisions, especially in the face of climate change, but is difficult due to the large number of factors that can modify the response. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) imagery may serve as a tool to detect and measure the forest response at the edge quickly and repeatedly, thus allowing a larger amount of area to be covered with less work. This study is a preliminary attempt to utilize UAS imagery to detect changes in canopy cover, known to exhibit changes due to edge influences, across forest edges in a New England forest. Changes in canopy cover with increasing distance from the forest edge were measured on the ground using digital cover photography and from photogrammetric point clouds and imagery-based maps of canopy gaps produced with UAS imagery. The imagery-based canopy gap products were significantly more similar to ground estimates for canopy cover (p value > 0.05) than the photogrammetric point clouds, but still suffered overestimation (RMSE of 0.088) due to the inability to detect small canopy openings. Both the ground and UAS data were able to detect a decrease in canopy cover to between 45–50 m from the edge, followed by an increase to 100 m. The UAS data had the advantage of a greater sampling intensity and was thus better able to detect a significant edge effect of minimal magnitude effect in the presence of heavy variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two-parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite-based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half-maximum greenness ( D50) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D50 range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D50. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech-maple-birch) and central (oak-hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As mariculture progresses offshore in the US Exclusive Economic Zone, technical and ecological challenges need to be overcome, such as the choice of suitable sites that favor the production of target species. The offshore culture of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, is performed with submerged longlines and mussels need to withstand more motion than on coastal sites. Temperature affects the ability of the byssus to adhere to farming rope, while chlorophyll concentration provides an estimation of food availability. Together, these are important factors in predicting the suitability of offshore mussel farms. To identify suitable depth of submersion for mussel ropes in New England federal waters, historical oceanographic data of temperature and chlorophyll a from 2005 to 2012 were used. The results suggest that mussel ropes were submerged during summer to a minimum depth of 15 m in northern and a 20-m depth in southern areas of New England where temperature is at a species-optimum and phytoplankton biomass is abundant. For the site offshore Massachusetts, in situ biodeposition measurements validated predicted depth, confirming satisfactory mussel performance. Promising local areas have shallow thermoclines, such as offshore Long Island, Cape Ann and New Hampshire. Recommended depths can be adjusted to future temperature increases associated with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most destructive natural hazards, tropical cyclone (TC)–induced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change. Here we conduct climatology–hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change (under RCP 8.5) on late 21st century flood hazards at the county level along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. We find that, under the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change, the historical 100-year flood level would occur annually in New England and mid-Atlantic regions and every 1–30 years in southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions in the late 21st century. The relative effect of TC climatology change increases continuously from New England, mid-Atlantic, southeast Atlantic, to the Gulf of Mexico, and the effect of TC climatology change is likely to be larger than the effect of SLR for over 40% of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding will increase under climate change. Here the authors estimate the effects of sea level rise and tropical cyclone climatology change on late–21st–century flood hazards along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and find that the effect of tropical cyclone change could surpass the effect of sea level rise at some areas in the Gulf of Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]