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The extent to which populations will successfully adapt to continued warming temperatures will be a crucial factor in determining future health burdens. Previous health impact assessments of future temperature-related mortality burdens mostly disregard adaptation or make simplistic assumptions. We apply a novel evidence-based approach to model adaptation that takes into account the fact that adaptation potential is likely to vary at different temperatures. Temporal changes in age-specific mortality risk associated with low and high temperatures were characterised for Scotland between 1974 and 2018 using temperature-specific RR ratios to reflect past changes in adaptive capacity. Three scenarios of future adaption were constructed consistent with the SSPs. These adaptation projections were combined with climate and population projections to estimate the mortality burdens attributable to high (above the 90th percentile of the historical temperature distribution) and low (below the 10th percentile) temperatures up to 2080 under five RCP-SSP scenarios. A decomposition analysis was conducted to attribute the change in the mortality burden into adaptation, climate and population. In 1980-2000, the heat burden (21 deaths/year) was smaller than the colder burden (312 deaths/year). In the 2060-2080 period, the heat burden was projected to be the highest under RCP8.5-SSP5 (1285 deaths/year), and the cold burden was the highest under RCP4.5-SSP4 (320 deaths/year). The net burden was lowest under RCP2.6-SSP1 and highest under RCP8.5-SSP5. Improvements in adaptation was the largest factor reducing the cold burden under RCP2.6-SSP1 whilst temperature increase was the biggest factor contributing to the high heat burdens under RCP8.5-SSP5. Ambient heat will become a more important health determinant than cold in Scotland under all climate change and socio-economic scenarios. Adaptive capacity will not fully counter projected increases in heat deaths, underscoring the need for more ambitious climate mitigation measures for Scotland and elsewhere., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

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In Scotland, there is ongoing concern about the status of geography in education. Numbers of pupils studying geography have been falling at a time when the relevance and importance of geography should be high, given the significance of issues like climate and biodiversity change. Why people choose to study geography is crucial knowledge for a vibrant discipline seeking to grow the subject and perceptions of its value. This paper is a companion paper to Selmes et al. (2022) which reported on quantitative data about geographers in the Scottish secondary and tertiary education sectors. This paper confirms that the tide is turning for geography study in Scotland, with entries now rising at all levels. Furthermore, an online survey of 93 pupils found that they choose to study geography because they enjoy the lessons and are interested in the content, feeling able in the subject and that it will be useful in paid work. Conversely, pupils say they choose not to study geography when they do not perceive it will be useful in their career or because they have not found it interesting or an enjoyable experience. The question for all professional geographers is how we might together improve on the current situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the context of the work and achievements of James Croll, this paper reviews the records of direct observations of glacial landforms and sediments made by Charles Lyell, Archibald and James Geikie and James Croll himself, in order to evaluate their contributions to the sciences of glacial geology and Quaternary environmental change. The paper outlines the social and physical environment of Croll's youth and contrasts this with the status and experiences of Lyell and the Geikies. It also outlines the character and role of the 'Glasgow School' of geologists, who stimulated Croll's interest into the causes of climate change and directed his focus to the glacial and 'interglacial' deposits of central Scotland. Contributions are outlined in chronological order, drawing attention to: (i) Lyell's high-quality observations and interpretations of glacial features in Glen Clova and Strathmore and his subsequent rejection of the glacial theory in favour of processes attributed to floating icebergs; (ii) the significant impact of Archibald Geikie's 1863 paper on the 'glacial drift of Scotland', which firmly established the land-ice theory; (iii) the fact that, despite James Croll's inherent dislike of geology and fieldwork, he provided high-quality descriptions and interpretations of the landforms and sediments of central Scotland in order to test his theory of climate change; and (iv) the great communication skills of James Geikie, enhanced by contacts and evidence from around the world. It is concluded that whilst direct observations of glacial landforms and sediments were critical to the long-term development of the study of glaciation, the acceptance of this theory was dependent also upon the skills, personality and status of the Geikies and Croll, who developed and promoted the concepts. Sadly, the subsequent rejection of the land-ice concept by Lyell resulted in the same factors challenging the acceptance of the glacial theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A particular challenge for Scottish housing is the sustainability of its older tenemental housing stock. Nearly 200,000 such properties exist in the main cities and towns of Scotland. Many of these properties are in poor repair, which makes it particularly hard to retrofit in order to meet carbon reduction targets that seek to tackle climate change. Through examination of a specific case study, this paper reviews policy options for funding and delivering such retrofitting in the context of specific initiatives already underway in Glasgow. The paper considers technical but primarily also the financial, economic and policy choices and trade-offs facing older tenement retrofit. The carbon reduction challenge has, additionally, to be understood alongside the wider tenemental conservation argument and the underlying long-term problems relating to conditions and multiple ownership of the tenement stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Access to safe, clean and affordable water is a basic human right and a global goal towards which climate change poses new challenges that heavily impact the health and wellbeing of people across the globe and exacerbate or create new inequalities. These challenges are shaped by a number of geographical and social conditions that, apart from the risks of weather-driven impacts on water, include water governance and management arrangements in place, including pricing tariffs, and the interplay of social and economic inequalities. Building on examples from Australia, Scotland and England and Wales that illustrate access to water in different types of water provision systems, and regarding to aspects of access, quality and affordability, this paper explores the types of challenges related to water poverty in the context of climate crisis and reflects on the multiple dimensions of water poverty oriented social policy at the interplay of climate change associated risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Scotland, residents have fought open-net salmon farms and their toll on human and nonhuman bodies for decades. This paper recollects seven years of work in Skye and Raasay, two islands off the northwest coast of the country, developing strategies to divest away from salmon aquaculture. Addressing the contemporary wave of underwater clearances created by UK's top food export industry, it unpacks the implementation of a transition into alternative horizons by embracing the legacies of toxicity inherited from salmon extractivist industries. CLIMAVORE, a framework developed as a research-led artistic practice by the authors, investigates how to eat in the new seasons of the climate crisis. In a season of marine dead zones, it facilitates new approaches to aquaecology and coastal care that cultivate coastal livelihoods. CLIMAVORE began with a new public forum, shaped as a multispecies intertidal table, established in Skye in 2017 to envision environmentally regenerative and socially reparative forms of food production based on metabolic interactions between humans and depleted landscapes that benefit a plethora of species. CLIMAVORE's site responsive methodology relies on a socially-engaged art practice, consisting of fieldwork, interviews, working groups, oral histories, performative meals, cooking and building apprenticeships, tidal gardening, material testing and public art installations. Ongoing collaboration with residents, scientists, and policymakers critically explores ways of living not only on but with the coast. This new holistic approach to coastal nourishment provides methodologies for ecological praxis as well as a platform for researchers and the general public to imagine an alternative ecological future: the tidal commons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2018 and 2020, CyArk, Google Arts and Culture and the International Council for Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) worked together on the Heritage on the Edge project. Launched on the Google Arts and Culture platform in January 2020, this project utilised a range of techniques to highlight the impacts and local experiences of climate change at five cultural World Heritage Sites in Bangladesh, Peru, Rapa Nui, Scotland and Tanzania. All five sites are experiencing different climate change impacts and each has been responding and adapting to these challenges in unique and locally appropriate ways. The project illustrates both the value of collaboration between different organisations, and the role of this historic environment in climate change communication and public engagement. This paper will introduce the project aims, objectives and methodology with a particular focus on the project review and web analytics for the six-month period following the project launch. Results suggest global meaningful engagement with some considerable gaps especially in low and middle-income countries. It concludes by exploring some useful lessons for future digital projects, exploring ways to increase geographical reach and improve viewer engagement, and to ensure more equitable collaborations with partner sites and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Scottish government has made the 20-minute neighbourhoods approach a priority. They are an important part of the nation's plans for regeneration and its response to the climate crisis. Drawing on the model developed by Plan Melbourne, this paper discusses the application of the 20-minute neighbourhood concept in the established neighbourhoods of North Lanarkshire, Stirling and Dunblane from a community perspective. Based on the findings of a year-long project by Living Streets Scotland, it reminds planners and urbanists interested in creating low-traffic, 15- or 20-minute neighbourhoods or cities that listening to community viewpoints, in particular the voices of women, children, older and disabled people, is essential to their successful implementation. There is no 'one size fits all'. Walking is literally a street-by-street issue. Every pavement, every crossing, every route — including longer journeys that cannot be walked or cycled — must be joined up for any of it to be accessible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐term data are crucial for understanding ecological responses to climate and land use change; they are also vital evidence for informing management. As a migratory fish, Atlantic salmon are sentinels of both global and local environmental change. This paper reviews the main insights from six decades of research in an upland Scottish stream (Girnock Burn) inhabited by a spring Atlantic salmon population dominated by multi‐sea‐winter fish. Research began in the 1960s providing a census of returning adults, juvenile emigrants and in‐stream production of Atlantic salmon. Early research pioneered new monitoring techniques providing new insights into salmon ecology and population dynamics. These studies underlined the need for interdisciplinary approaches for understanding salmon interactions with physical, chemical and biological components of in‐stream habitats at different life‐stages. This highlighted variations in catchment‐scale hydroclimate, hydrology, geomorphology and hydrochemistry as essential to understanding freshwater habitats in the wider landscape context. Evolution of research has resulted in a remarkable catalogue of novel findings underlining the value of long‐term data that increases with time as modelling tools advance to leverage more insights from "big data". Data are available on fish numbers, sizes and ages across multiple life stages, extending over many decades and covering a wide range of stock levels. Combined with an unusually detailed characterization of the environment, these data have enabled a unique process‐based understanding of the controls and bottlenecks on salmon population dynamics across the entire lifecycle and the consequences of declining marine survival and ova deposition. Such powerful datasets, methodological enhancements and the resulting process understanding have informed and supported the development of fish population assessment tools which have been applied to aid management of threatened salmon stocks at large‐catchment, regional and national scales. Many pioneering monitoring and modelling approaches developed have been applied internationally. This history shows the importance of integrating discovery science with monitoring for informing policy development and assessing efficacy of management options. It also demonstrates the need to continue to resource long‐term sites, which act as a focus for inter‐disciplinary research and innovation, and where the overall value of the research greatly exceeds the costs of individual component parts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pressure is increasing globally to deliver integrated land use at large spatial scales (10–100 s km2) to address the climate and biodiversity emergencies through delivery of nature-based solutions. There is also pressure to decentralise land use decision-making to sub-national levels of government and multi-stakeholder partnerships, with the aim of improving policy targeting, coordination and participation. Whilst there has been significant research on these issues at smaller spatial and administrative scales, it is limited at larger scales. This paper addresses this gap, investigating whether the introduction of additional regional institutions can help address these challenges. It draws insights from Scotland's decade old Land Use Strategy (LUS) and evolving Regional Land Use Partnerships (RLUPs) that aim to mitigate climate change through encouraging improved and integrated land use and land management. We find that despite considerable stakeholder support, such approaches may not deliver on their ambitions. An overarching finding relates to the importance of political commitment to implementation at these larger scales, which is crucial for establishing clear objectives, giving regions authority to respond to regional priorities, and ensuring adequate resourcing. This affects buy-in from stakeholders and the resolution of policy coordination challenges that the partnerships are meant to address. It has wider implications for the delivery of national climate policies, given the importance of land management in most climate change strategies. The insights, and the analytical framework used, are relevant for any country grappling with the challenge of implementing nature-based solutions at ever larger scales whilst bridging local and national land use priorities. • Regional integrated land use planning in Scotland evaluated and wider lessons drawn. • Clear objectives, transfer of powers, and resourcing key to regional land use planning. • Political commitment is crucial in overcoming delivery challenges at this scale. • Approaches to scaling up integrated land use need to account for politics. • These lessons are important in global efforts to scale up nature-based solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under climate change, many parts of the world are warming with increasing frequencies and intensities of heatwaves, bringing heat-health risks to places including those that have a historically temperate or cool climate. These places may have extensive experience in managing cold-health risks, while experience is lacking in dealing with heat-health risks due to their lack of historical exposure to high temperatures. This paper explores this overlooked area of the challenges and opportunities of heat-health governance in cool places using Scotland as a case study. Various important themes of heat-health governance in cool places were identified by the study, including socio-cultural barriers to intervention, vulnerable population overlaps, temporal and geographical scales, and governance arrangements. The study found challenges in managing heat-health risks including a perceived lack of heat-health risks and policy priority as well as unsuitable building stock. Meanwhile, it also identified opportunities for governing cold and heat risks holistically within existing institutional systems and creating co-benefits of improving communication and information dissemination, reducing inequality and improving indoor thermal comfort of both cold and heat as well as providing good quality greenspace. Our findings contribute to the development or improvement of national/regional strategies to manage heat-health risks not only in Scotland but also in other places with a historically cool or temperate climate. • Temperature increase under climate change poses health risks to cool places as well. • Cool places have distinctive challenges and opportunities in heat-health governance. • Perceived lack of heat risks poses socio-cultural barriers to heat-health governance. • A holistic governance approach of cold and heat-health risks was preferred. • Building design and occupant behaviour are crucial for thermal comfort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All sites have a climate change story. Interpretation of climate change at historic sites has largely been limited to global warming's physical impacts. This paper provides case studies from the U.S. and Scotland of places where practitioners are working to expand beyond that framework to add new relevance and impact to climate change interpretation. Historic and natural places can be interpreted to make powerful connections, showing visitors how we came to this moment of climate crisis and helping them understand their roles in addressing this challenge. Especially as climate change intensifies and threatens not just the natural and historic places we admire, but our own homes and ways of life, it becomes increasingly important we connect with our past to secure our future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is threatening an uncalculated number of archaeological sites globally, totaling perhaps hundreds of thousands of culturally and paleoenvironmentally significant resources. As with all archaeological sites, they provide evidence of humanity's past and help us understand our place in the present world. Coastal sites, clustered at the water's edge, are already experiencing some of the most dramatic damage due to anthropogenic climate change, and the situation is predicted to worsen in the future. In the face of catastrophic loss, organizations around the world are developing new ways of working with this threatened coastal resource. This paper uses three examples from Scotland, Florida, and Maine to highlight how new partnerships and citizen science approaches are building communities of practice to better manage threatened coastal heritage. It compares methods on either side of the Atlantic and highlights challenges and solutions. The approaches are applicable to the increasing number of heritage sites everywhere at risk from climate change; the study of coastal sites thus helps society prepare for climate change impacts to heritage worldwide., Competing Interests: Competing interest statement: A.K. and D.H.S. are both affiliated with the University of Maine.

It is thought that 70% of beaches worldwide are experiencing erosion (Bird in Coastline changes: a global review, Wiley, Hoboken, 1985), and as global sea levels are rising and expected to accelerate, the management of coastal erosion is now a shared global issue. This paper aims to demonstrate a method to robustly model both the incidence of the coastal erosion hazard, the vulnerability of the population, and the exposure of coastal assets to determine coastal erosion risk, using Scotland as a case study. In Scotland, the 2017 Climate Change Risk Assessment for Scotland highlights the threat posed by coastal erosion to coastal assets and the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires an Adaptation Programme to address the risks posed by climate change. Internationally, an understanding and adaption to coastal hazards is imperative to people, infrastructure and economies, with Scotland being no exception. This paper uses a Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) (Fitton et al. in Ocean Coast Manag 132:80-89.10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.08.018, 2016) to establish the exposure to coastal erosion of residential dwellings, roads, and rail track in Scotland. In parallel, the vulnerability of the population to coastal erosion, using a suite of indicators and Experian Mosaic Scotland geodemographic classification, is also presented. The combined exposure and vulnerability data are then used to determine coastal erosion risk in Scotland. This paper identifies that 3310 dwellings (a value of £524 m) are exposed to erosion, and the Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index (CEVI) identifies 1273 of these are also considered to be highly vulnerable to coastal erosion, i.e. at high risk. Additionally, the CESM classified 179 km (£1.2 bn worth) of road and 13 km of rail track (£93 m to £2 bn worth) to be exposed. Identifying locations and assets that are exposed and at risk from coastal erosion is crucial for effective management and enables proactive, rather that reactive, decisions to be made at the coast. Natural hazards and climate change are set to impact most on the vulnerable in society. It is therefore imperative that we begin to plan, manage, and support both people and the environment in a manner which is socially just and sustainable. We encourage a detailed vulnerability analysis, such as the CEVI demonstrated here for Scotland, to be included within future coastal erosion risk research. This approach would support a more sustainable and long-term approach to coastal management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participatory extension programmes (PEPs) are a popular policy tool to stimulate the uptake of climate change mitigation practices on a farm level. Given the public investment in PEPs, reliable evaluation is important. However, few studies evaluate climate change PEPs. Moreover, the evaluations conducted so far do not correctly account for potential spatial effects, such as the influence of neighbouring farms on PEP participation. Therefore, this paper estimates the impact of PEP participation on the uptake of a climate change mitigation practice and soil management, and identifies the importance of spatial effects on PEP participation. A spatial propensity score matching method is applied to a dataset from Scotland, consisting of 134 PEP and 184 control farmers. The results show that PEP participation facilitates the uptake of soil management practices and that spatial dependence exists in farmers' decision‐making, indicating the need for the inclusion of spatial factors. This study contributes to the current literature by combining spatial econometric analysis and propensity score matching to conduct a quantitative evaluation of a climate change PEP. The evaluation methodology provides decision‐makers with reliable insights into the potential contribution of PEPs towards climate change mitigation targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the journal is presented on various papers within the issue on topics including climate change fund policy in Scotland, construction of wind farm and rationalizations of the response of stakeholders to developments in Germany and Scotland.

The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland. Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry, and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse. Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours. Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and capacity to adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The paper discusses the development of economic techniques for dealing with uncertainties in economic analysis of planting trees to mitigate climatic change. In consideration of uncertainty, time preference and intergenerational equity, the traditional cost-benefit analysis framework is challenged with regard to the discounting/non-discounting of carbon uptake benefits, and because it usually uses a constant and positive discount rate. We investigate the influence of various discounting protocols on the outputs of economic analysis. The idea of using the declining discount rate is also considered. Several numerical examples dealing with the analysis of afforestation for carbon sequestration in Scotland and Ukraine are provided. We show that the choice of discounting protocols have a considerable influence on the results of economic analysis, and therefore, on the decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation strategies. The paper concludes with some innovative insights on accounting for uncertainties and time preference in tackling climate change through forestry, several climate policy implications of dealing with uncertainties, and a brief discussion of what the use of different discounting protocols might imply for decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier surges are cyclic oscillations of velocity and mass resulting from internal dynamic instabilities. For surge-type glaciers, cycles of advance and retreat are decoupled from climate forcing, so it is important to consider the possibility that former glaciers may have been surge-type when making climatic inferences from their dimensions and chronologies. In this paper, climatic and glacier geometric data are used to show that Scotland was likely the location of a surge cluster during the Loch Lomond Stade (∼12.9–11.7 ka), with high probabilities of surging for outlets of the West Highland Icefield and the larger glaciers in the Inner Hebrides and Northern Highlands. Terrestrial and marine landforms consistent with surging occur in all of these areas, and it is proposed that surge-type glaciers existed on the Islands of Skye and Mull, in the Northern Highlands, and in a 'surging arc' along the western, southern and south-eastern margins of the West Highland Icefield. The possibility that surge-type glaciers were widespread in Scotland during the Loch Lomond Stade offers a fresh perspective on some long-standing issues, including the relationship between style of deglaciation and climate change, the climatic significance of glacial chronologies, palaeoclimatic reconstructions, and the interpretation of numerical model results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the evidence for periodic human activity in the Cairngorm Mountains of Scotland from the late 9th millennium to the early 4th millennium cal bc. While contemporary paradigms for Mesolithic Europe acknowledge the significance of upland environments, the archaeological record for these areas is not yet as robust as that for the lowland zone. Results of excavation at Chest of Dee, along the headwaters of the River Dee, are set into a wider context with previously published excavations in the area. A variety of site types evidences a sophisticated relationship between people and a dynamic landscape through a period of changing climate. Archaeological benefits of the project include the ability to examine novel aspects of the archaeology leading to a more comprehensive understanding of Mesolithic lifeways. It also offers important lessons in site survival, archaeological investigation, and the management of the upland zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how deliberative workshops might enhance social learning about climate change adaptation among land managers in northwest Europe (Scotland). To date, methods for enhancing social learning in the context of adaptation and climate change have been neglected. In this study, location specific agro-meteorological indicators for both observed and future climate data were produced. The indicators were used as a basis for discussion in four deliberative workshops. The workshops sought to raise awareness of climate change issues, ensure the validity and utility of the indicators, stimulate thinking about adaptive responses and increase land managers' capacity to adapt. Land managers' adaptations to climate change fell into four broad categories: changing what they do, how they do it, when they do it or the frequency with which they do it. This paper therefore reflects on the use of deliberative workshops as an effective technique to enhance social learning regarding adapting to climate change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collections care in temperate zones of the world, including Scotland, is generally well served by a system of heating control known as conservation heating or humidistat-controlled heating. This system adjusts temperature in a building in order to maintain relative humidity at desired levels. An alternative control method is through the use of dehumidification, although airtightness of the building influences the effectiveness of this. This paper assesses three sites where these methods of control have been used: the Great Hall at Edinburgh Castle, Abbots House at Arbroath Abbey in eastern Scotland and Skelmorlie Aisle in western Scotland. The benefits of each system are discussed, together with consideration of the effect of climate change on the efficacy of each. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of resilience is now routinely put forward by both policymakers and social activists as a way for communities to use and develop their resources and respond positively to change, including decarbonization to address climate change. The extent to which a community is able to utilize all its resources depends on the extent to which it feels empowered to take action and is a major determinant of its resilience. A narrative of community empowerment has recently emerged from Scottish Government, driven in part by the situation in Scotland, in which a skewed pattern of landownership and distant structure of 'local' democracy combine to disempower communities by disconnecting them from local resources and local representative democracy. Recent Scottish legislation appears to provide new opportunities for community groups to gain control of local assets, become more financially sustainable, undertake climate-related mitigation actions and overcome some of the current local democratic deficit. At the same time, an increasingly well-organized and networked community sector and some within the Scottish Government are actively exploring new ways to enable public participation and deliver public services. This paper analyses the current Scottish policy framework and aspirations for community empowerment and, through interviews with stakeholders, assesses the potential, this may provide for communities to become truly resilient and to actively engage with transformational change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Younger Dryas ice‐marginal ('hummocky') moraines in Scotland represent valuable terrestrial archives that can be used to obtain important information on ice‐marginal dynamics and glacier thermal regimes during a period of rapid climatic change. In this paper, we present detailed sedimentological studies of Younger Dryas ice‐marginal moraines in the Gaick, central Scotland, the former site of a spatially restricted plateau icefield. Exposures demonstrate that moraines in the Gaick represent terrestrial ice‐contact fans, with evidence of proglacial and subglacial glaciotectonization, as reported elsewhere in Scotland. The exposures also reveal the influence of local hydrogeological conditions, with pressurization of the groundwater system leading to the formation of hydrofracture fills within some moraines. Clast shape analysis shows that all the moraines contain debris consistent with transport in the subglacial traction zone. The sedimentological data, and the planform arrangement of the moraines as nested arcs or chevrons, indicate that retreat of the Younger Dryas Gaick Icefield outlets was incremental and oscillatory. This evidence strongly suggests a mainly temperate thermal regime and short glacier response times, but with narrow cold‐ice zones near the margins facilitating the elevation of basal debris to the glacier surface. Analogous glaciodynamic regimes occur at modern ice‐cap and plateau icefield outlets in Iceland and Norway, although there are significant differences in the nature of ice‐marginal deposition. The glaciodynamic signature recorded by moraines in the Gaick has allowed us to shed new light on the ice‐marginal dynamics and thermal regime of one of the most easterly Younger Dryas icefields in Scotland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unconventional oil and gas extraction (UOGE) including fracking for shale gas is underway in North America on a large scale, and in Australia and some other countries. It is viewed as a major source of global energy needs by proponents. Critics consider fracking and UOGE an immediate and long-term threat to global, national, and regional public health and climate. Rarely have governments brought together relatively detailed assessments of direct and indirect public health risks associated with fracking and weighed these against potential benefits to inform a national debate on whether to pursue this energy route. The Scottish government has now done so in a wide-ranging consultation underpinned by a variety of reports on unconventional gas extraction including fracking. This paper analyses the Scottish government approach from inception to conclusion, and from procedures to outcomes. The reports commissioned by the Scottish government include a comprehensive review dedicated specifically to public health as well as reports on climate change, economic impacts, transport, geology, and decommissioning. All these reports are relevant to public health, and taken together offer a comprehensive review of existing evidence. The approach is unique globally when compared with UOGE assessments conducted in the USA, Australia, Canada, and England. The review process builds a useful evidence base although it is not without flaws. The process approach, if not the content, offers a framework that may have merits globally.

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its cyclical planning process, River Basin Management Planning (RBMP) offers a route for adaptive management of a complex human–environment system. Considering how stakeholders speak about climate change provides a lens to examine social learning within RBMP. The paper explores how climate change emerged as a topic during our research and the trajectory of the social learning process. Participants were aware of the challenges that climate change might pose for achieving Good Ecological Status (GES), but as the deadline for the plans drew nearer the focus shifted from long-term issues to the current state of the environment and delivery of objectives. The degree of ‘climate proofing’ in RBMP depends on choices in future planning phases. We reflect on the potential for this to occur, putting our findings into the context of literature on social learning and adaptive management processes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind power is seen by many as a key industry for the future: an environmentally benign renewable energy to replace fossil fuels. The Northern and Western Isles, with their high average wind speeds, would seem to be well placed to exploit this rapidly emerging demand. As well as meeting a global need, to reduce output of greenhouse gases and a national need for security of supply into the twenty-first century, wind power promises an economic future for rural regions whose prospects are otherwise uncertain. However, this benign scenario is marred by potentially serious negative consequences for local environmental systems, landscape aesthetics and archaeology, which are themselves often of national and international importance. With particular reference to proposed projects in Lewis and Shetland, this paper will consider the competing demands from national and local policy on the location of wind farms, and weaknesses in the current planning process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the once ubiquitous vernacular earth-built structures of Scotland and how perceptions of such buildings were shaped and developed through periods of intense cultural and environmental change. We focus upon the past exploitation of traditional resources to construct vernacular architectures and on changes in the perception of the resultant buildings. Historic earth-built structures are today deeply hidden within the landscapes of Scotland, although they were once a common feature of both urban and rural settlements. Whilst the eighteenth and nineteenth century period of Improvement - during which many of these structures were destroyed, repurposed, or left to decay - has received extensive attention by historians, there exists no previous serious study of the human and environmental dimensions. Through analysis of the material aspects of landscape resource use and analysis of the historical perceptions of such use, we emphasize the national significance of this undervalued aspect of Scotland's built and cultural heritage, increasingly at risk of being lost completely, highlighting the prior ubiquity of mudwall structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated Catchment Management (ICM) has in recent years been promoted by a wealth of 'top-down' government policies, while a number of 'bottom-up' community-based initiatives have also been set up. At the same time, adaptive water governance, built around multi-level, integrative and participatory institutional arrangements, is called for in order to enhance adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems to global changes. Working across scales, aligning planning processes, and multi-actor collaboration are key issues in the linking of top-down and bottom-up ICM, hence providing insights into how adaptive water governance can work in practice. The paper presents a study of how ICM actors work across scales and reconcile national and local priorities in 15 regional experiences chosen to reflect a diversity of scales, histories and governance arrangements. It is complemented with an in-depth, illustrative example, taken from the Tweed River Basin in Scotland, where a local charity has gradually developed and helped bridge gaps between local communities and government. Research results present the ways in which ' trusted intermediaries' can successfully close the gap across levels of governance, i.e. between communities, business, and governmental interests at multiple scales. Local ' trusted intermediaries' perform well, with their local knowledge, at building rapport with key actors and effectuate change on the ground. The research also indicates the need for a legal framework, or at least an established policy structure, that acts to harness the good will and interests of local actors while improving implementation of broader, national objectives. There appears to be no specific mechanism for multi-level collaboration, although results indicate that more formal and coercive forms of partnership are necessary at later stages to ensure implementation, for example, via the establishment of formal duties on public bodies or legally binding agreements between ICM stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Horse mussel beds are listed as a Priority Marine Feature (PMF) in Scotland for their influence in the creation of diverse benthic communities and provision of ecosystem services. In Scotland, horse mussel beds are also recognised for their importance in marine carbon sequestration. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of data on horse mussel bed carbon stocks and sediment thickness. There are also significant financial and logistical barriers with which to address these data gaps. This study investigates the robustness of Sub-Bottom Profiling (SBP) as a costeffective method to quantify horse mussel sediment thickness across a landscape. Integrating SBP and Drop-Down Video (DDV) data, this study also details an integrated approach to investigate the links between horse mussel habitat condition and sediment thickness. With the addition of abiotic data, this study uses Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to elucidate key relationships between abiotic factors, biotic variables, and sediment thickness. There is a significant positive correlation of horse mussel habitat condition and sediment thickness. Average horse mussel total sediment thickness, across all measures of habitat condition, was 1.37m. These findings substantially increase previous estimates of horse mussel sediment thickness, and potential value to climate change mitigation through blue carbon frameworks. This study highlights the importance of both abiotic and biotic factors on marine carbon sediment quantification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maerl beds are listed as a priority marine feature in Scotland. They are noted for creating suitable benthic habitat for diverse communities of fauna and flora and in supporting a wide array of ecosystem services. Within the context of climate change, they are also recognised as a potential blue carbon habitat through sequestration of carbon in living biomass and underlying sediment. There are, however, significant data gaps on the potential of maerl carbon sequestration which impede inclusion in blue carbon policy frameworks. Key data gaps include sediment thickness, from which carbon content is extrapolated. There are additional logistical and financial barriers associated with quantification methods that aim to address these data gaps. This study investigates the use of sub-bottom profiling (SBP) to lessen financial and logistical constraints of maerl bed sediment thickness estimation and regional blue carbon quantification. SBP data were cross validated with cores, other SBP data on blue carbon sediments, and analysed with expert input. Combining SBP data with estimates of habitat health (as % cover) from drop-down video (DDV) data, and regional abiotic data, this study also elucidates links between abiotic and biotic factors in determining maerl habitat health and maerl sediment thickness through pathway analysis in structural equation modelling (SEM). SBP data were proved to be sufficiently robust for identification of maerl sediments when corroborated with core data. SBP and DDV data of maerl bed habitats in Orkney exhibited some positive correlations of sediment thickness with maerl % cover. The average maerl bed sediment thickness was 1.08 m across all ranges of habitat health. SEM analysis revealed maerl bed habitat health was strongly determined by abiotic factors. Maerl habitat health had a separate positive effect on maerl bed sediment thickness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant progress has been made towards implementing Marine Protected Area (MPA) networks in UK waters, with Scotland successfully designating 30 new Scottish MPA sites in July 2014. This paper reviews the Scottish MPA process up to the point of implementation, summarising the process that led to the designation of the MPA network. In particular, this paper investigates the extent to which the process i) effectively engaged stakeholders; ii) used ecological guiding principles; and iii) considered climate change. In doing so, this paper highlights several key issues if the Scottish MPA network is to move beyond an administrative exercise and is able to make a meaningful contribution to marine biodiversity protection for Europe: i) fully adopt best practice ecological principles ii) ensure effective protection and iii) explicitly consider climate change in the management, monitoring and future iterations of the network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the use of impact indicators with respect to climate change in the 2007–2013 Rural Development Programme (RDP) of the European Union, with particular reference to the Scotland Rural Development Programme (SRDP). It concludes that the policy context has highlighted the need for the rural land use sector to respond to climate change but that the associated Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) did not develop suitable indicators to assess the impact of SDRP measures on GHG emission mitigation. It suggests improved impact indicators based on the relationship between rural land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: first, an indicator based on net GHG emissions per holding; and a second based on net GHG emissions per unit volume of output. The paper points out the challenges in measuring land-based emissions accurately. It further proposes screening of RDP measures to ensure that climate change mitigation impacts are properly appraised. It is recognised that climate change policy in relation to rural land use is still at an early stage of development but greater sophistication of policy instrument design and evaluation will be required if the RDP is to contribute significantly to climate change policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Scottish Government is committed to carbon reduction targets which are the most ambitious across the devolved administrations of the UK. Whilst Scotland operates within broader international and UK policy contexts, it has developed particular programmes and approaches to engage communities in the transition towards low-carbon futures. Rural areas have a role in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland; however, beyond land use and agriculture contributions, little research has explored the “rural” dimension of “low-carbon” transitions. The paper presents a policy and literature review relating to the low-carbon agenda in Scotland. It reflects on Scottish low-carbon policy and governance, the positioning of “rural communities” within this, and the opportunities and challenges this might present. Based on this, we develop an understanding of how rural communities may contribute to a low-carbon Scotland and identify a future research agenda to explore in more detail the nature and relative effectiveness of diverse governance structures to support this. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann-Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961-2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Henriksson et al. (2010), hereafter HALTL10, criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2006a) (AH06) primarily on the grounds that we assumed that different sources of data were conditionally independent given the climate sensitivity. While we consider this approximation to have been a reasonable one under the circumstances (and provided arguments to justify this approach), we also acknowledged its importance in our original paper and performed several sensitivity analyses. The alternative calculations presented by HALTL10 appear to strengthen rather than contradict our conclusion. HALTL10 additionally criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2009) (AH09) for proposing a Cauchy type prior (as an alternative to the use of a uniform prior, which was widespread up to that time) "without sufficient support", and further claim that anticipated economic damages were used as a means of selecting the prior. We are surprised by these claims, especially considering that the proposed prior was justified at some length both on the basis of both the "Charney report" (National Research Council, 1979) and basic physical arguments, and also in light of our elementary demonstration of the pathological failings of the most commonly-used alternative. Thus, these claims are factually incorrect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change policy targets are compared with empirical land use changes for afforestation and peatland restoration. • New woodland in Scotland shown to occur mainly on land marginal for agriculture and uncultivated areas. • Peatland restoration tends to cluster in some locations and not others. • Socioeconomic factors explaining afforestation and peatland restoration are explored. • Limitations of symbolic targets for land use change identified due to spatial and temporal variations in GHG emissions. Climate change policy for the land sector is challenged by complex biophysical and socioeconomic contexts. A target approach utilising land-use change indicators is often used to quantify and communicate progress, based upon assumed greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions. This paper investigated areal targets for woodland expansion and peatland restoration, both of which can deliver substantial carbon sequestration benefits, with uptake typically supported by grant incentives. A case study used empirical data to investigate realisation of such targets in Scotland referenced against ambitious policy commitments (net-zero emissions by 2045). Analysis of actual locations for recent afforestation and peatland restoration, referenced against biophysical data, showed that new woodland primarily occurred on land that was marginal for agriculture, usually on wetter uncultivated semi-natural land, often on organic soils. This acts to constrain net carbon gains. Both peatland restoration and new woodland show tendency to aggregate in specific zones or locations, regardless of biophysical opportunities, highlighting underlying socioeconomic factors. Differential patterns of uptake are also shown by grant applications across different land use groups. Socioeconomic factors act against more ubiquitous uptake of incentive schemes, especially for new woodland on improved agricultural land, which will constrain long-term decarbonisation objectives unless tackled directly. Investigation therefore shows that use of simple targets (e.g. trees planted) as headline progress indicators can be misleading, potentially contributing to policy failure and misuse of carbon offsets. A more spatially targeted approach is required to maximise GHG reductions relative to local contexts. Recommendations are made for improved measures that recognise spatial and temporal variability, as exemplified by certification schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern mid-high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen - or are projected to see - marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer-aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km2) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub-arctic montane sub-catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub-catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub-catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape-specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re-distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fact that health and disease are products of a complex interaction of factors has long been recognized in public health circles. More recently, the term 'ecological public health' has been used to characterize an era underpinned by the paradigm that, when it comes to health and well-being, 'everything matters'. The challenge for policy makers is one of navigating this complexity to deliver better health and greater equality in health. Recent work in Scotland has been concerned to develop a strategic approach to environment and health. This seeks to embrace complexity within that agenda and recognize a more subtle relationship between health and place but remain practical and relevant to a more traditional hazard-focused environmental health approach. The Good Places, Better Health initiative is underpinned by a new problem-framing approach using a conceptual model developed for that purpose. This requires consideration of a wider social, behavioural etc, context. The approach is also used to configure the core systems of the strategy which gather relevant intelligence, subject it to a process of evaluation and direct its outputs to a broad policy constituency extending beyond health and environment. This paper highlights that an approach, conceived and developed to deliver better health and greater equality in health through action on physical environment, also speaks to a wider public health agenda. Specifically it offers a way to help bridge a gap between paradigm and policy in public health. The author considers that with development, a systems-based approach with close attention to problem-framing/situational modelling may prove useful in orchestrating what is a necessarily complex policy response to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Loch Leven is a large, shallow lake in lowland Scotland, UK. Scientific research began here almost 200 years ago. Early research characterised the biodiversity and physical characteristics of the loch, providing an important historical background for future research. In the mid-1960s, this ad hoc approach was superseded by a more structured research programme under the umbrella of the International Biological Programme. This was the beginning of the Loch Leven long-term monitoring programme. Today, the results of these studies form one of the longest and most comprehensive limnological datasets for shallow freshwater lakes in the world, comprising more than 500 physical, chemical and biological variables collected at two-weekly intervals. To celebrate the 40th anniversary of the start of the long term monitoring programme, and to highlight the scientific investigations still being conducted at Loch Leven, the NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) organised a symposium entitled "Loch Leven: 40 years of scientific research" in Kinross, Scotland, UK, on 11 December 2008. This examined the role of long-term monitoring in developing our understanding of the links between pollution, climate change and ecological responses in shallow lakes. This article introduces a series of papers summarising the scientific results presented at this meeting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Impact and uncertainty framework for the identification of compound hydro-hazards. • UK example application using EDgE RCP8.5 projections. • NE Scotland and SW UK identified as spatio-temporally compound hotspot regions. • Hydrological models identified as the largest source of variability. • Raises questions regarding spatial variability of hydroclimatological modelling uncertainty. There exists an increasing need to understand the impact of climate change on the hydrological extremes of flood and drought, collectively referred to as 'hydro-hazards'. At present, current methodology are limited in their scope, particularly with respect to inadequate representation of the uncertainty in the hydroclimatological modelling chain. This paper proposes spatially consistent comprehensive impact and uncertainty methodological framework for the identification of compound hydro-hazard hotspots – hotspots of change where concurrent increase in mean annual flood and drought events is projected. We apply a quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework, to detail both the magnitude and the sources of uncertainty in the modelling chain for the mean projected mean change signal whilst accounting for non-stationarity. The framework is designed for application across a wide geographical range and is thus readily transferable. We illustrate the ability of the framework through application to 239 UK catchments based on hydroclimatological projections from the EDgE project (5 CMI5-GCMs and 3 HMs, forced under RCP8.5). The results indicate that half of the projected hotspots are temporally concurrent or temporally successive within the year, exacerbating potential impacts on society. The north-east of Scotland and south-west of the UK were identified as spatio-temporally compound hotspot regions and are of particular concern. This intensification of the hydrologic dynamic (timing and seasonality of hydro-hazards) over a limited time frame represents a major challenge for future water management. Hydrological models were identified as the largest source of variability, in some instances exceeding 80% of the total variance. Critically, clear spatial variability in the sources of modelling uncertainty was also observed; highlighting the need to apply a spatially consistent methodology, such as that presented. This application raises important questions regarding the spatial variability of hydroclimatological modelling uncertainty. In terms of water management planning, such findings allow for more focussed studies with a view to improving the projections which inform the adaptation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a study to partition the role of three regional-scale drivers - woodland extent and continuity, pollution regime, and climatic setting - in explaining the composition and richness of lichen epiphytes in Scotland. To do this we used partial canonical correspondence analysis and multiple least squares regression, to examine lichen communities across 170 study sites. First, our results demonstrate the importance of climate in explaining species composition. This highlights the relatively clean-air environment of Scotland within a European setting, and emphasizes the important consideration of regional context in the development of bioclimatic species-response models. This result contrasts with a previous similar study which collapsed complex environmental data into summary gradients, and which therefore discounted climate as a key factor. Second, we show a functional decoupling between composition and species richness, which was optimally explained by old-growth woodland extent and pollution, and only weakly explained by climate. The difference in explanatory variables between composition and richness is a focal issue in determining the processes by which species compositional change, driven by rapid and deep climate change, may indirectly impact species richness. For example, this impact may occur through an imbalance in rates of species extinction (for sensitive range-edge species) and establishment in a fragmented landscape (for dispersal-limited colonists), though operating against the 'stabilizing effect' of microclimatic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas, atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation ( p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scottish tourism is forecasted to grow by 50 per cent over the next 10 years but one of the factors that may hinder or facilitate that growth is climatic change. Indeed, many people are now starting to question the impact of such significant growth on the planet. Therefore, this paper assesses the impact of climate change on Scottish tourism in order that policy makers can separate the facts from the myths. The dimensions of climate change such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, storms, and wind speed are discussed and the implications for Scottish tourism are mapped. Those implications may include the introduction of CO2 allowances for all travellers, more wind farms in rural locations impacting on film tourism or the grouse species disappearing from Scotland. The paper concludes with a number of adaptation strategies that Scottish tourism agencies and business could adopt to mitigate climate change. The importance of this paper lies in understanding how climate change could impact upon a specific destination, in this case Scotland, and in providing a micro analysis of that impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We begin our April issue with a paper describing the developments and effects of storm ‘Katie’, which brought significant effects to the United Kingdom on Easter Monday, 2015. In ‘Storm Katie – Rapid cyclogenesis and damaging winds of Easter Monday 2016’ on p. 103, Steven Ramsdale and Jason Kelly describe the meteorological developments that developed this low‐pressure system, the uncertainties associated with its development, the warnings issued and the damage caused, in part limited by its presence on a Bank Holiday. On p. 109, Colin Clark describes a flood 112 years ago in ‘The storm and flood of 13 May 1906 at Mells, Somerset, UK’ Dr Clark discusses the significance of the flood and its possible return period using synoptic charts of the time and descriptions published in local newspapers immediately following the event, emphasising our need to know more about floods in history. One of the least explored parts of the Middle East is the Empty Quarter. In the 1940s and 50s, the English explorer and writer Wilfred Thesiger crossed this area of extreme aridity. His discoveries and travels are described by Michael de Villiers in ‘Thesiger's weather in the Arabian Peninsula’ on p. 120. On p. 123, we present Iain Cameron and Adam Watson's annual review of the survival of snow on Scottish mountains. The overall warmth of last year is reflected in this year's title: ‘No Scottish snow patches survive until winter 2017/2018’. Weather and climate have a significant effect on human life and this journal often describes significant weather events, especially those that have affected Britain. But the local variability of weather may arguably present a more significant effect – not least, in the Developing World. Many factors affect school attendance, but weather and climate, including drought, rainstorms and dust pose important challenges, sometimes because of the secondary effects. Joseph Adejuwon discusses these effects in the Sahel zone in ‘Climate variability and the dichotomy in male–female school attendance: a case study of Zamfara State in semi‐arid Nigeria’ on p. 125. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to predict species ranges and their future distribution under climate change scenarios, mostly using only climatic variables. An important factor that is usually neglected, is the habitat of the species that are being modelled. Even when included, it is often considered a fixed factor, but in reality, it is also subjected to changes. In this study, we assessed if this omission can lead to different projected distributions of the species. For this purpose, we applied an ensemble of SDMs, and we projected the distribution of rare bryophyte species in Scotland in the 2050s. Bryophytes are generally very climate-reliant and lend themselves to bioclimatic studies, and we selected species different grades of affinity with blanket bogs, which are threatened by climate change. Blanket bog extension was included in the model as an explanatory variable, and the models were run for three 2050s scenarios: once with the current blanket bog distribution and twice using the blanket bog distribution derived from two bioclimatic models (Lindsay modified and Blanket Bog Tree model), under the same climate change projections. The results showed some differences in the predicted future distribution of those species with a strong relationship with blanket bogs, when habitat changes were accounted for. For example, Sphagnum majus, the species with the highest affinity with blanket bog in our study, was not predicted to change its future distribution when blanket bog is held constant at the current level, but was predicted to lose up to 60% of its current suitable area when the projected loss of blanket bog is included. Our results suggest that adding future habitat changes could improve the reliability of SDMs in the first steps of planning for conservation and restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The resilience of river catchments and the vital socio-ecological services they provide are threatened by the cumulative impacts of future climatic and socio-economic change. Stakeholders who manage freshwaters require tools for increasing their understanding of catchment system resilience when making strategic decisions. However, unravelling causes, effects and interactions in complex catchment systems is challenging, typically leading to different system components being considered in isolation. In this research, we tested a five-stage participatory method for developing a Bayesian network (BN) model to simulate the resilience of the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland to future pressures in a single transdisciplinary holistic framework. The five-stage participatory method involved co-developing a BN model structure by conceptually mapping the catchment system and identifying plausible climatic and socio-economic future scenarios to measure catchment system resilience. Causal relationships between drivers of future change and catchment system nodes were mapped to create the BN model structure. Appropriate baseline data to define and parameterise nodes that represent the catchment system were identified with stakeholders. The BN model measured the impact of diverse future change scenarios to a 2050 time horizon. We applied continuous nodes within the hybrid equation-based BN model to measure the uncertain impacts of both climatic and socio-economic change. The BN model enabled interactions between future change factors and implications for the state of five capitals (natural, social, manufactured, financial and intellectual) in the system to be considered, providing stakeholders with a holistic catchment-scale approach to measure the resilience of multiple capitals and their associated resources. We created a credible, salient and legitimate BN model tool for understanding the cumulative impacts of both climatic and socio-economic factors on catchment resilience based on stakeholder evaluation. BN model outputs facilitated stakeholder recognition of future risks to their primary sector of interest, alongside their interaction with other sectors and the wider system. Participatory modelling methods improved the structure of the BN through collaborative learning with stakeholders while providing stakeholders with a strategic systems-thinking approach for considering river basin catchment resilience [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With evidence suggesting that climate change is resulting in changes within the hydrologic cycle, the ability to robustly model hydroclimatic response is critical. This paper assesses how extreme runoff—1:2- and 1:30-year return period (RP) events—may change at a regional level across the UK by the 2080s (2069–2098). Capturing uncertainty in the hydroclimatic modelling chain, flow projections were extracted from the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe) multi-model ensemble: five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) General Circulation Models and four hydrological models forced under emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (5 × 4 × 2 chains). Uncertainty in extreme value parameterisation was captured through consideration of two methods: generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised logistic (GL). The method was applied across 192 catchments and aggregated to eight regions. The results suggest that, by the 2080s, many regions could experience large increases in extreme runoff, with a maximum mean change signal of +34% exhibited in East Scotland (1:2-year RP). Combined with increasing urbanisation, these estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape. Model chain uncertainty was found to increase by the 2080s, though extreme value (EV) parameter uncertainty becomes dominant at the 1:30-year RP (exceeding 60% in some regions), highlighting the importance of capturing both the associated EV parameter and ensemble uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]