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Climate change is becoming a defining factor for communities in South Asia. Forming one-fifth of the world population, the region increasingly faces climate-induced disasters such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, cyclones etc. This region also has one of the world's poorest people who struggle to cope with the rapidly changing climatic conditions. Agriculture still employs many people in the region, one of the worst-hit sectors. Agriculture will become untenable in some parts of the region due to climate change. Monsoon patterns have changed, and agriculture does not guarantee sustainable income for the vast majority. Many climate change adaptations have been initiated in the region in response to the threat of climate change. Scholars and practitioners feel that these adaptations must be transformative to be effective. In this paper, we examine eight such adaptations from three South Asian Countries – Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, from the lens of transformative adaptation. We found that no single adaptation initiative meets all the criteria for sustainable socio-ecological transformations. However, there is a significant overlap between different typologies of transformation as envisaged in the paper and literature. We conclude that the concept of socio-ecological transformation is new for South Asia, so integrating it into the programmes and policies is the need of the hour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses grave challenges to global peace and stability. Nowhere is the relation between the climate crisis and the increased threat of nuclear war clearer than in South Asia, where approximately 700 million people in India, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh depend on the shared waters of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins. These river systems, fed by Himalayan glaciers, are diminishing markedly due to climate change. As geopolitical tensions in the region intensify, it becomes even more crucial to address and eliminate the two intertwined existential threats of water scarcity (caused by climate change) and the risk of nuclear war. This paper analyses the Indus River conflict and the Brahmaputra conflict in turn and offers effective strategies and recommendations for dealing with the threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main theme of this paper is to investigate the socio-economic impacts of climate change and adaptation; by comparing the losses with and without land reallocation for major staple foods as a key strategy of climate change adaptation in the farming system. In doing so, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal has been developed, incorporating the allocation of land for several agricultural crops, including the major staple foods, with specification of a nested set of constant elasticity of transformation (CET) functional forms. The set of land transformation elasticities facilitates switching from one crop to another; based on their agronomic characteristics and degree of climate change impacts. Using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data and Living Standard Survey (LSS) data, a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Nepal is developed and used to simulate three scenarios of climate change and land reallocation. The simulation results in the long run depict farmers as more likely to use land for crops that are comparatively less impacted by climate change, such as paddy. The results further show that land reallocation reduces the income inequality and poverty among rural and urban households by significantly controlling the income losses of marginal farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the early Holocene onward, the Indian Subcontinent has accommodated a range of diverse human cultures and associated ecological adaptations and lifestyles. Around 10 kyrs ago, the Subcontinent has witnessed the development of later Mesolithic hunter-gatherers and their subsequent regional transitions to pastoralist (Neolithic) and agricultural (Chalcolithic) lifeways. The Holocene climate records reveal discrepancies in the timing and duration of climatic events, which can be attributed to a vast geographic isolation, the influence of height, elevation, and local climatic conditions. These changing climatic patterns including the development of a geographically variable monsoon directly impacted these various cultures including the Harappans and their contemporaries as well as younger Historical and Medieval empires across India, at various levels. In some regions, environmental changes led to uneven cultural transitions, geographic migrations, and the development of regionally-distinct material cultures along with establishment of sedentary life-ways. This paper attempts to present a review broadly correlating general climatic patterns throughout the Holocene period of India with regional cultural dynamics. All geomorphic-climatic zones of the Subcontinent showed strong inter-proxy coherence between 9 and 5 kyrs in response to increased precipitation. After this warming period ends, we see a moderate dry period as a result of a weakening monsoon and an overall tendency toward aridity throughout all zones (after 4 kyrs). The temporal variation of human habitation and respective adaptive responses suggest broad linkages to the varying climatic and physiographic features at a regional scale. Learning how this shaped human eco-dynamics in the past can help us expand our understanding of human history and implement lessons for the present as well as the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economy has made significant strides in the past three decades. As a direct result of China's "one belt, one road" (OBOR) initiative, the country's rate of industrialization and urbanization is currently the fastest in the entire world. This rapid development is largely dependent on the enormous amounts of energy currently being consumed and forms the foundation of the world's high levels of carbon emissions. It is generally agreed that the production of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is the primary contributor to the current state of climate change. In this paper, a CO2 emission prediction model based on Bi-LSTM is constructed. In order to conduct empirical tests on the model, this study uses data from South Asian countries and China from 2001 to 2020. China's CO2 emissions from 2022 to 2030 were predicted along with those of other countries in order to study the combined effects of the scientific and technological progress, industrial structures, and energy structure factors affecting CO2 emissions. When compared with the LSTM and GRU methods, the Bi-LSTM model's results produced lower MAE, MSE, and MAPE values, indicating that it performs better. According to the findings, carbon emissions represent a significant problem that will become much worse in the future due to China and India's high emissions, particularly in the next 10 years, if the government does not implement policies that help reduce those emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asian air pollutants exert substantial effect on the climate and environment change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This paper investigates the trans-boundary transport of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 from South Asia to the TP via WRF-Chem sensitive analysis. It is found that PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 over South Asia are mainly sourced from anthropogenic sources. South Asian emissions contribute up to 54% of PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP in the pre-monsoon season. For O 3 , the highest contribution of 18.13% is in the monsoon season, while the lowest contribution of 8.67% is in the winter season. To evaluate the respective contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP, anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia are considered separately. The results show that the largest percentage contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian anthropogenic emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP with value of 35.86% (37.77%) occurs in winter, while the lowest percentage contribution of 16.52% (16.77%) appears in the monsoon season. For O 3 , the largest contribution of 17.74% from South Asian anthropogenic emissions appears in the monsoon season, whereas the lowest contribution of 8.59% occurs in winter. Compared to the anthropogenic emissions, the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have a relative less contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. The largest contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian biomass burning emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP is 20.04% (18.37%) in the pre-monsoon season. Conversely, the lowest contribution of 0.58% (0.53) appears in the monsoon season. O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the TP in each season, implying that the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have little effect on O 3 in the TP. This study is of great significance to the ecological environment protection for the TP. • Contributions of South Asian emissions to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP are quantified. • Anthropogenic emissions in South Asia have a larger contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. • O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health. • Frequency of hot-dry events and hot-humidity events will increase and decrease, respectively, in the future. • There are abrupt points and periodicity in the future time series of compound temperature and precipitation extremes. • Asia is projected to have the greatest exposure and climate change contributes the most to exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Analyzes South Asia's energy trilemma balancing energy access, security and sustainability. • Focuses on four major regional countries: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. • Identifies major challenges as lack of energy access, unreliable gird, and unaffordable prices. • Explores the prospects of renewable energy as the key toward a sustainable energy transition. • Presents stakeholder perspectives on crucial dynamics of energy transition. To address the faced challenges – i.e. rapidly growing energy needs, depleting fossil fuel reserves, surging energy prices, risks to security of supplies, and climate change – the World is targeting a sustainable energy transition. This energy transition is primarily propelled by a global decarbonization drive. South Asia, a developing region housing over 23% of the global population, faces the additional challenge of serious energy deprivation. The subject of energy transition has not been explored in the South Asian context in terms of drivers, challenges, and prospects. This paper investigates the prospects of sustainable energy transition in South Asia in terms of resources, consumption trends, and challenges encountered by countries in the region, particularly India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. It also examines the sustainable and renewable energy options for the region. An original stakeholder survey provides salient behavioral insights into awareness, attitudes and opinions shaping societal response to energy transition. The findings of the study highlight the serious energy security issues faced by the region in terms of lack of access, inconsistent supplies, unreliable grids, and high energy prices. Renewables like solar energy, wind power, and hydropower have the potential to propel regional countries to energy and environmental sustainability. "Lack of consistent policies and regulations", "lack of political will" and "lack of investment" are found to be the three most important challenges to the energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the environmental migrations has become a triggering factor nowadays as the result of climate change effects, the issue of migration is still controversial for the international poltics. It is estimated that by 2050 one in every 45 people in the world will be displaced by the impact of climate change. More than 143 million (around 2,8%) internal climate migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America could be forced to move within their own countries to escape the slow-onset disasters by the 2050. Therefore, it becomes a responsibility at the international level, however there is no concrete international law to protect the environmentally induced migrants. As both developed and developing countries are facing huge challenges they should, therefore, portray its urgency, depth and coordinated framework for addressing challenges with “hotspot”s to reduce their vulnerability to the impacts of environmental disasters and manage the risks. This paper tries to explain how big the problem is, what international liability lies on developed and developing countries in reducing risk, and the problems of environmentally induced migrants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances regarding land–atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its climatic impacts. Thermal forcing over the TP interacts strongly with that over the Iranian Plateau, forming a coupled heating system that elevates the tropopause, generates a monsoonal meridional circulation over South Asia and creates conditions of large-scale ascent favorable for Asian summer monsoon development. TP heating leads to intensification and westward extension (northward movement) of the South Asian High (Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone), and exerts strong impacts on upstream climate variations from North Atlantic to West Asia. It also affects oceanic circulation and buoyancy fields via atmospheric stationary wave trains and air–sea interaction processes, contributing to formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The TP thermal state and atmospheric–oceanic conditions are highly interactive and Asian summer monsoon variability is controlled synergistically by internal TP variability and external forcing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to estimate a high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of temperature rise under climate change for effective adaptation and mitigation planning. This paper studies the threshold crossing time (TCT) for eight Indian warming targets (IWTs) between 1.5 and 5 °C based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia project. To evaluate the performance of CORDEX experiments in simulating the near-surface mean temperature, the model performance index (MPI) is used which represents that the CanESM experiment performs best for simulating Tmean over India. All India average Tmean projected by the multi-model ensemble (MME) represents that 1.5 °C TCT is about 2033 ± 3 and 2028 ± 3 in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. During the twenty-first century, Indian subcontinent can experience five IWTs (1.5–3.5 °C) under RCP4.5 and all eight under scenario RCP8.5. The fastest warming region in India is the western Himalayan region (North India) and north-west region (Indian Thar Desert). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy-water-land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the Nexus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy-water-land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open access geospatial data available through national inventories and the earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River Basin in South Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Regional crop production forecasting is growing in importance in both, the public and private sectors to ensure food security, optimize agricultural management practices and use of resources, and anticipate market fluctuations. Thus, a model and data driven, easy-to-use forecasting and a risk assessment system can be an essential tool for end-users at different levels. This paper provides an overview of the approaches, algorithms, design, and capabilities of the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) for gridded crop modeling and yield forecasting along with risk analysis and climate impact studies. CRAFT is a flexible and adaptable software platform designed with a user-friendly interface to produce multiple simulation scenarios, maps, and interactive visualizations using a crop engine that can run the pre-installed crop models DSSAT, APSIM, and SARRA-H, in concert with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) for seasonal climate forecasts. Its integrated and modular design allows for easy adaptation of the system to different regional and scientific domains. CRAFT requires gridded input data to run the crop simulations on spatial scales of 5 and 30 arc-minutes. Case studies for South Asia for two crops, including wheat and rice, shows its potential application for risk assessment and in-season yield forecasting. Highlights • An integrated modeling framework, CRAFT, has been developed for gridded simulations at 5 and 30 arc-minutes resolutions. • It allows within-season yield forecasting, risk analysis, and climate change impact studies. • It incorporates seasonal climate forecasts using the Climate Predictability Tool. • The current version can run the pre-installed DSSAT, APSIM, and SARRA-H, but support for any crop model can be added. • CRAFT is a desktop application that can produce multiple simulation scenarios, maps, and interactive visualizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability has played a vital role in the expansion and collapse of human civilizations across the World since ancient times. The Indus Civilization in South Asia has been the focus of investigations to archaeologists, historians, and anthropologists. But little attention was paid earlier to the role of climate variability in shaping the course of this well-established urban civilization. In this paper, we have presented a review of literature to understand various factors that affected the evolution of this cultural enigma. We suggest that the climate change in the region was a major controlling factor in determining the fate of Indus civilization settlements. The transformation of hunter-gatherers into pastoral community between 7000 and 3200 B.C.E., the establishment of village habitations along the Indus River and its tributaries in the Early Harappan phase, urbanization and shifting towards Ghaggar-Hakra rivers in the Mature Harappan phase, and final displacement towards Ganga-Yamuna doab (interfluve) region as village culture were largely modulated by the changing strength of the Indian summer monsoon and amount of precipitation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is a collation and synthesis of the literature review with the focus on the vulnerability of rural women in developing countries to climate change on the one hand and being pro-active in adapting to climate change on the other. The geographic coverage of the literature is global but with specific examples from India. The information presented in this paper is derived from diverse sources including journal articles and thematic books, and indicates severe adverse impacts not only on women's livelihood opportunities but also on exacerbating the workload and fatigue while decreasing their self esteem and forcing them to undertake some high risks and hazardous activities. The literature indicates that poverty, gender inequality, insecure land rights, heavy reliance on agriculture, less access to education and information are among the principal reasons for their vulnerability to climate change. The vulnerability is also confounded by the meager asset base, social marginalization, lack of mobility and exclusion from the decision-making processes in response to a disaster. However, the literature also shows that women are not only the passive victims of climate change but are also pro-active and agents of hope for adaptation to and mitigation of abrupt climate change. They utilize their experience and expertise to reduce the adverse impacts by adopting prudent strategies. They are also concerned about environmental issues, and are highly supportive of policies regarding environmental restoration. Large knowledge gaps exist regarding the vulnerability of women to changing and uncertain climate especially in arid regions. Authors of this article suggest some action plans and strategies to minimize vulnerability to climate change such as empowering women economically and educationally, organizing training and outreach programmes, and involving them in formal climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Authors also outline research needed in order to identify and implement strategies regarding climate change. Collective and continuous efforts are critical to finding the sustainable solutions for this global phenomenon which is adversely impacting the most vulnerable but critically important members of the society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Watershed management (WSM) is the most widely adopted technology in developed as well as developing countries due to its suitability across climatic conditions. Watershed technology is suitable to protect and enhance soil fertility, which is deteriorating at an alarming rate with agricultural intensification in high as well as low rainfall regions. Of late, WSM is considered as an effective poverty alleviation intervention in the rain fed regions in countries like India. This paper aims at providing a basic watershed policy and implementation framework based on a critical review of experiences of WSM initiatives across South Asia. The purpose is to provide cross learnings within South Asia and other developing countries (especially Africa) that are embarking on WSM in recent years. Countries in the region accord differential policy priority and are at different levels of institutional arrangements for implementing WSM programmes. The implementation of watershed interventions is neither scientific nor comprehensive in all the countries limiting the effectiveness (impacts). Implementation of the programmes for enhancing the livelihoods of the communities need to strengthen both technical and institutional aspects. While countries like India and Nepal are yet to strengthen the technical aspects in terms of integrating hydrogeology and biophysical aspects into watershed design, others need to look at these aspects as they move towards strengthening the watershed institutions. Another important challenge in all the countries is regarding the distribution of benefits. Due to the existing property rights in land and water resources coupled with the agrarian structure and uneven distribution and geometry of aquifers access to sub-surface water resources is unevenly distributed across households. Though most of the countries are moving towards incorporating livelihoods components in order to ensure benefits to all sections of the community, not much is done in terms of addressing the equity aspects of WSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) play an important role in the regional and global climate change and ecological environment. The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) carried out observation experiment at the Nam Co Station for Multisphere Observation and Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nam Co Station, 30°46′N, 90°59′E, 4730 m) in the central TP from August 5 to September 11, 2020. This paper investigated the aerosol optical properties and its potential sources over Nam Co region. The main results are as follow: the average aerosol optical depth was 0.025 during the observation period; the average black carbon (BC) concentration and aerosol number concentration was 37 ng/m3 and 129 N/cm3, respectively; the diurnal variation and vertical distribution of aerosol were affected by the local meteorological elements. Frequent southerly winds during the summer monsoon led to a certain contribution of South Asia to the BC concentration in Nam Co region. And particles from the Taklimakan Desert led to dramatic increasing of aerosol number concentration over Nam Co region. The aerosol optical characteristics and influencing factors over the central TP were analyzed, which is beneficial to further study the influence of aerosols over the TP on regional and global weather and climate. • Optical properties of aerosol over Nam Co station were observed by the STEP of China. • Nam Co region was generally influenced by BC from South Asia, local pollution emissions and north particles. • The average of AOD, depolarization ratio and BC over Nam Co station was 0.026, 0.033 and 37 ng/m3, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scarcity will affect nearly two-thirds of the world in the near future. The impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate these problems and unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted, resilience is difficult to achieve. The paper surveys the water resources available in South Asian countries and takes into account the projected climate change impacts on these resources. The paper also analyses the water policies and formulates a conceptual water policy framework in which adaptation is central. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Past human populations are known to have managed crops in a range of ways. Various methods can be used, singly or in conjunction, to reconstruct these strategies, a process which lends itself to the exploration of socio-economic and political themes. This paper endeavours to unpack the concept of 'multi-cropping' by considering diversity and variation in the cropping practices of the populations of South Asia's Indus Civilisation. It argues that nuanced interpretations of the evidence provided by the combinations of crop seeds and weeds present in specific contexts and phases of occupation can reveal much about Indus cropping strategies, which in turn enables consideration of issues related to adaptation, intensification and resilience in the face of changing social, political, economic and environmental climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Known as the "third pole" and "water tower of Asia", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the home to the largest number of glaciers in the mid-latitudes and one of the most sensitive areas to global climate change due to its special geographical location and powerful thermodynamic effects. In recent years, the TP has been affected by exogenous pollutants and the concentrations of some pollutants have shown an increasing trend, especially light-absorbing aerosols (LAAs), when ice core records, ground- and aircraft-based field campaigns and satellite technology enabled synthesized monitoring. The enhanced warming of the vast majority of regions in TP, together with Arctic warming, and snow/ice decline, represents credible evidence of anthropogenic climate change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on the sources, characteristics and climate impacts of LAAs over the TP. Adjacent to the two major emission sources of LAAs in East Asia and South Asia, the unique geographical location and climatic characteristics of the TP make it possible for TP LAAs to cause atmospheric warming and accelerated glacier melting, affecting the hydrological cycle in South Asia, East Asia and even the Northern Hemisphere, thus causing a series of serious environmental and social problems. LAAs, such as black carbon and dust, can strongly absorb solar radiation and and have significantly influence on climate change. Moreover, light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) on snow/ice can reduce the snow/ice albedo and further accelerate the snow/ice melting. Both LAAs and LAIs over the TP can induce thermodynamic feedback processes, cause significant warming of the TP and then lead to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affect the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been proposed forth regarding how TP LAAs modulate the phase, intensity, and amplitude of the Asian climate system. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on TP LAAs and their climate impacts are synthesized, in which dust aerosols from drylands and black carbon from biomass burning are considered leading components. By coupling an integrated approach with state-of-the-art modeling, high temporal and fine spatial resolution remote sensing observations with increasing sampling over the TP will provide further insights into TP aerosols. • Light-absorbing aerosols warm the Tibetan Plateau, further influence climate system • The external input of light-absorbing aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau is dominant • Climate effects of light-absorbing aerosols or impurities in snow is divergent [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past two centuries, the world has witnessed a remarkable increase in the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases (GHGs), namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), as a result of human activities after 1750 (preindustrial era). During 1750 the concentrations for these gases were 280 ppm, 715 ppb, and 270 ppb, respectively which increased to 379 ppm, 1774 ppb, and 319 ppb, respectively in 2005. It showed an increase of 0.23, 0.96, and 0.12% annually. The same has further increased to 385 ppm, 1797 ppb, and 322 ppb, respectively in 2008 representing 1.6, 1.2, and 0.9% increase, respectively from 2005 levels at an annual increase of 0.53, 0.43, and 0.31%, annually. Increase in atmospheric CO2 promotes growth and productivity of plants with C3 photosynthetic pathway but the increase in temperature, on the other hand, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, affect the survival and distribution of pest populations, and may hasten nutrient mineralization in soils, decrease fertilizer-use efficiency, and increase evapotranspiration. The water resources which are already scarce may come under enhanced stress. Thus, the impact of climate change is likely to have a significant influence on agriculture and eventually on the food security and livelihoods of large sections of the urban and rural populations globally. The developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Latin America, with diverse agroclimatic regions, challenging geographies, growing economies, diverse agricultural production systems, and farm typologies are more vulnerable to the effect of climate change due to heavy dependence on agriculture for livelihood. These regions also are demonstrating poor coping mechanisms to adapt to these challenges, and as a result there is evidence of negative impacts on productivity of wheat, rice, and other crops to varying extent depending on agroecologies. Upscaling of modern technologies such as conservation and climate smart agriculture, judicious utilization of available water for agriculture through microirrigation and water saving technologies, developing multiple stress-tolerant crop cultivars and biotypes through biotechnological tools, restoration of degraded soils and waters, promoting carbon sequestration through alternate production technologies and land use, and conservation of biodiversity must be promoted at regional and country level to ensure durable food and nutritional security. Reliable early warning system of environmental changes, their spatial and temporal magnitude, coupled with policies to support the diffusion of this information, can help interpret these forecasts in terms of their agronomic and economic implications for the benefit of farmers and to provide agriculture-dependent industries and policymakers with more informed options to support farmers. These countries need to formulate both short-term and long-term policies for improvement, sustenance, and protection of natural resources. There is an urgent need for capacity building through international collaboration in order to develop databases and analysis systems for efficient weather forecasting as well as preparing contingency plans for vulnerable areas. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the available information on adaptation strategies and the mitigation options for climate change to meet the food security in South Asia and Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the implications of urbanization for water security and human health and well-being in four peri-urban South Asian locations, namely Khulna in Bangladesh, Kathmandu in Nepal, and Gurgaon and Hyderabad in India. It describes the implications of the urbanization process for water access in communities in the peripheral areas of cities. It further discusses the implications of this for the health and well-being of peri-urban residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the structural aspects of climate vulnerabilities in the context of monsoon failures. The paper is based on a unique household survey, conducted in Tamil Nadu, India. The study uses a rural differentiation framework to interrogate unequal vulnerabilities to monsoon failures, based on measures such as Gini coefficients and Lorenz curves of monetary losses. Results show that negative consequences of climate change in general, and monsoon failures in particular, intensify pre-existing socio-economic disparities. When the rural differentiation theory is applied in a broader sense, the analysis shows that landed and farming households have greater exposure and losses. When we move beyond these aggregate categories, the revelation is that households with pre-existing disadvantages such as marginal landholders, subsistence farmers and agricultural workers are more vulnerable. • Global warming affects agriculture in South Asia in a major way through monsoon failures. • Vulnerability to monsoon failures can be measured by associated monetary losses. • These losses are highly unevenly distributed, pointing to significant inequality in impacts. • Landless households, marginal holders and subsistence farmers have higher losses. • Climate change intensifies existing structural disadvantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses future climate changes over East and South Asia using a regional climate model (RegCM4) with a 50 km spatial resolution. To evaluate the model performance, RegCM4 is driven with 'perfect boundary forcing' from the reanalysis data during 1970-1999 to simulate the present day climate. The model performs well in reproducing not only the mean climate and seasonality but also most of the chosen indicators of climate extremes. Future climate changes are evaluated based on two experiments driven with boundary forcing from the European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5), one for the present (1970-1999) and one for the SRES A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The model predicts an annual temperature increase of about 3°-5° (smaller over the ocean and larger over the land), and an increase of annual precipitation over most of China north of 30°N and a decrease or little change in the rest of China, India and Indochina. For temperature-related extreme indicators in the future, the model predicts a generally longer growing season, more hot days in summer, and less frost days in winter. For precipitation-related extremes, the number of days with more than 10 mm of rainfall is predicted to increase north of 30°N and decrease in the south, and the maximum five-day rainfall amount and daily intensity will increase across the whole model domain. In addition, the maximum number of consecutive dry days is predicted to increase over most of the model domain, south of 40°N. Most of the Yangtze River Basin in China stands out as 'hotspots' of extreme precipitation changes, with the strongest increases of daily rain intensity, maximum five-day rain amount, and the number of consecutive dry days, suggesting increased risks of both floods and droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a synoptic view of extreme monsoon floods on all the nine large rivers of South Asia and their association with the excess (above-normal) monsoon rainfall periods. Annual maximum flood series for 18 gauging stations spread over four countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) and long-term monsoon rainfall data were analyzed to ascertain whether the extreme floods were clustered in time and whether they coincided with multi-decade excess monsoon rainfall epochs at the basin level. Simple techniques, such as the Cramer's t-test, regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and Hurst method were used to evaluate the trends and patterns of the flood and rainfall series. MK test reveals absence of any long-term tendency in all the series. However, the Cramer's t test and Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range statistic provide evidence that both rainfall and flood time series are persistent. Using the Cramer's t-test the excess monsoon epochs for each basin were identified. The excess monsoon periods for different basins were found to be highly asynchronous with respect to duration as well as the beginning and end. Three main conclusions readily emerge from the analyses. Extreme floods (>90th percentile) in South Asia show a tendency to cluster in time. About three-fourth of the extreme floods have occurred during the excess monsoon periods between ~1840 and 2000 AD, implying a noteworthy link between the two. The frequency of large floods was higher during the post-1940 period in general and during three decades (1940s, 1950s and 1980s) in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the performance of eight state-of-art IPCC-AR4 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in their representation of regional characteristics of atmospheric water balance over South Asia. The results presented here are the regional climate change scenarios of atmospheric water balance components, precipitation, moisture convergence and evaporation ( P, C and E) up to the end of the twenty-second century based on IPCC AR4 modelling experiments conducted for (A1B) future greenhouse gas emission scenario. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown a reasonable skill in depicting the hydrological cycle over the South Asian region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed atmospheric water balance and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and atmospheric water balance changes under A1B scenario are discussed in detail. Spatial patterns of rainfall change projections indicate maximum increase over northwest India in most of the models, but changes in the atmospheric water balance are generally widespread over South Asia. While the scenarios presented in this study are indicative of the expected range of rainfall and water balance changes, it must be noted that the quantitative estimates still have large uncertainties associated with them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents novel insights into the archaeology of food in ancient South Asia by using lipid residue analysis to investigate what kinds of foodstuffs were used in ceramic vessels by populations of the Indus Civilisation in northwest India. It examines how vessels were used in urban and rural Indus settlements during the Mature Harappan period (c.2600/2500–1900 BC), the relationship between vessels and the products within them, and identifies whether changes in vessel use occurred from the Mature Harappan to Late Harappan periods, particularly during climatic instability after 4.2 ka BP (c.2100 BC). Despite low lipid concentrations, which highlight challenges with conducting residue analysis in arid, seasonally-wet and alkaline environments, 71% of the vessels yielded appreciable quantities of lipid. Lipid profiles revealed the use of animal fats in vessels, and contradictory to faunal evidence, a dominance of non-ruminant fats, with limited evidence of dairy processing. The absence of local modern reference fats makes this dataset challenging to interpret, and it is possible that plant products or mixtures of plant and animal products have led to ambiguous fatty acid-specific isotopic values. At the same time, it appears that urban and rural populations processed similar types of products in vessels, with limited evidence for change in vessel use from the urban to the post-urban period. This study is a systematic investigation into pot lipid residues from multiple sites, demonstrating the potential of the method for examining ancient Indus foodways and the need for the development of further research in ancient organic residues in South Asia. • Systematic study on ceramic lipid residues from rural and urban sites of the Indus Civilisation in northwest India. • Lipid residue analysis provides chemical evidence for milk, meat, and possible mixtures of products and/or plant consumption. • Similarities in vessel use across settlements suggest common regional culinary practices. • Evidence for continuity in vessel usage practices after the decline of urbanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of global climate models (GCMs) for a region remained a difficult step in climate change studies. A state-of-the-art Support Vector Machine Recursive Feature Elimination (SVM-RFE) algorithm is proposed in this paper for GCM selection. The ranking of GCMs obtained using SVM-RFE was compared to that obtained using entropy-based similarity assessment index known as Symmetrical Uncertainty (SU). The study was conducted in the sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan where a reliable projection of climate is highly significant for water resources management in the entire western part of South Asia. The RF-based regression model was employed to generate a multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of the top-ranked GCMs. The MME mean projection was utilized to estimate the spatiotemporal changes in annual precipitation in comparison with precipitation of 1961‐–2000 for various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The SVM-RF selected five GCMs (MIROC5, EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM1.1(m) and BCC-CSM1.1) as most suitable for climate change projections in the study area. Obtained results were found to collaborate well with the results of multiple conventional statistical metrics. The MME mean projections revealed precipitation alteration between −1% and 18% during 2020‐–2059, and 0 and 24% during 2060–2099 for different RCPs. Precipitation was projected to increase up to 20% in the north whereas a decrease up-to −16% in the south. • SVM-RFE algorithm is used for selection of GCMs for Upper Indus Basin (IUB). • Performance of SVM-RF was compared with symmetrical uncertainty (SU) and conventional statistics based methods. • SVM-RFE was found to select the same GCMs as selected by SU and conventional statistics. • Precipitation projections in IUB revealed high heterogeneity in future changes in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countering climate challenges requires genuine multi-layered approaches in cooperation with various stakeholders. Spanning 20 years, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) has been facilitating the research community to provide regional and grassroots results and solutions, while acting as a mechanism to encourage science-policy-stakeholder dialogue. This paper outlines the relevance of APN projects to IPCC policymaking by laying out knowledge products and lessons learned from the projects. It also narrates how regional research and capacity building assist in responding to the increasing urgency across climate change and the SDGs. A synthesis of project-generated knowledge was garnered from research and capacity development studies conducted under the auspices of APN to identify their scope and level of policy relevance. A combined typology and solution scanning with Likert scale as relevance rating was employed to categorize contribution against key themes of the IPCC sixth assessment report. Findings suggest 115 distinct and relevant projects completed mostly in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Temperate East Asia, with many of them asserting community-based adaptation and mitigation surrounding issues on ecosystems and biodiversity, extreme weather events, water-food-energy nexus, sustainable waste management, and climate education. Findings also show 163 knowledge products in which majority of them (66.87%) were peer-reviewed journal articles, 11.04% were reports, 7.98% were policy briefs, 6.75% were guidelines and tools, 4.91% were books and 2.45% were perspectives and opinions. With the evolving synergies between global climate targets and the SDGs, it is recommended that APN solidify its role in science-policy partnerships and networking by creating improved interlinkages for disseminating knowledge gaps filled and in replicating lessons learned and best practices found in APN knowledge products. In addition to science-policy dialogues and output synthesis, a regular review of APN research and capacity development outcomes will help in realizing these important aspects toward wider policy impact. • 115 distinct and relevant regional projects on climate change mostly in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Temperate East Asia. • A scan of 163 knowledge products based on 10 themes indicates commonality between APN research agenda and IPCC mandate • Policy-relevant knowledge products from APN regional research and capacity development projects come in various formats and scope. • Enhancing interlinkages between APN projects and international policymaking processes is important in ensuring policy impact. • Knowledge synthesis can contribute to addressing deficiency in data, methods and coverage of climate change research and funding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability and low-carbon economy strategies have been widely studied in the past; nevertheless, researchers often ignore the effects of combining energy, economic, and environmental factors when assessing sustainability performance. To fill this gap, we measure the environmental sustainability performance of South Asia using a common weight Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-like mathematical model encompassing a comprehensive, up-to-date, and relevant set of indicators. In this paper, we present a measurement of South Asia's environmental sustainability performance for the years 2001–2015. Our results reveal that Bhutan outperforms the rest of the countries in South Asia, with an overall index score of 0.72. Nepal comes second in the region, with a stable score, followed by the Maldives. Afghanistan and Bangladesh are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, and their overall scores indicate strong potential sustainability performances. India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan follow this list, with poor scores, with Pakistan having the lowest scores during the study period. Based on these findings, we propose a policy to boost the cross-border renewable energy trade for long-term environmental sustainability. Image 1 • We select a meaningful, comprehensive, and relevant set of indicators. • A DEA-like mathematical model programming approach is adopted. • Measurement of South Asia's sustainability performance for 2001–2015 is addressed. • Bhutan is more energy secure and environmentally sustainable in South Asian. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This study develops energy security and environmental sustainability index for South Asia. • We select comprehensive, meaningful, and most relevant set of energy and environmental indicators. • Mathematical programming approach is adopted for weighting and aggregation of indicators. • Results reveal Bhutan as more energy secure and environmentally sustainable country in South Asia. • Maldives obtained lowest ESESI score. The concept of energy security has received significant attention in studies. However, most of the studies often ignored to integrate environmental aspect in the energy security assessment. Therefore, to measure the energy security and environmental sustainability of South Asian countries, this study develops a new index, i.e., Energy Security and Environmental Sustainability Index (ESESI), which combines energy and environmental indicators. The study presents an analysis of the period 2006–2017. The results show that Bhutan outperforms the rest of the countries in South Asia based on different indicators. Likewise, the overall ESESI score reveals Bhutan as more secure regarding energy security and environmental sustainability. India comes second in the region with a stable score followed by Sri Lanka, which substantially increased its performance over time. Pakistan is ranked fourth; however, the country experienced a decreasing trend of ESESI score. Nepal, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan follow the list with reduced scores. Maldives obtained the lowest ESESI score during the study period 2006–2017. Lowest ESESI implies that the Maldives is the least energy secure and environmentally sustainable country in the region. Based on the above findings, this paper recommends cross-border energy trade and increase in trans-regional renewable energy investments for long-term energy security and environmental sustainability in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer monsoon rainfall affects most of the population of the Indian subcontinent. A slight variation of strength and spatial distribution in monsoon rains has huge societal impacts. So understanding the significance of its variability and the factors that control this variability is an imperative task. The Indian monsoon (also regarded as a global phenomenon) varies with the global climatic components like geopotential height, sea surface temperature, outgoing long-wave radiation and mean sea level pressure. The paper presents a statistical analysis of rainfall (over India) and climatic components (over the Arabian Peninsula) and the relationship between them. The period (1979–2013) shows a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the country. During this period, there was an increase in the tropospheric temperature over the Arabian Peninsula. Rainfall showed a direct relationship with the tropospheric temperature and thickness that gets stronger during the period (1979–2013). Except for the northeastern region of India, the rest showed a strong positive correlation with the middle and upper tropospheric temperature over the Arabian Peninsula while the lower tropospheric temperature showed a weak relationship. However, this correlation gets weakened during the El Nino and La Nina years. The findings will be helpful to enhance the Indian rainfall variation and the climatic factors responsible for this variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]