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Background: Information about airborne pollen concentrations is required by a range of end users, particularly from the health sector who use both observations and forecasts to diagnose and treat allergic patients. Manual methods are the standard for such measurements but, despite the range of pollen taxa that can be identified, these techniques suffer from a range of drawbacks. This includes being available at low temporal resolution (usually daily averages) and with a delay (usually 3–9 days from the measurement). Recent technological developments have made possible automatic pollen measurements, which are available at high temporal resolution and in real time, although currently only scattered in a few locations across Europe. Materials & Methods: To promote the development of an extensive network across Europe and to ensure that this network will respond to end user needs, a stakeholder workshop was organised under the auspices of the EUMETNET AutoPollen Programme. Participants discussed requirements for the groups they represented, ranging from the need for information at various spatial scales, at high temporal resolution, and for targeted services to be developed. Results: The provision of real‐time information is likely to lead to a notable decrease in the direct and indirect health costs associated with allergy in Europe, currently estimated between €50–150 billion/year.1 Discussion & Conclusion: A European measurement network to meet end user requirements would thus more than pay for itself in terms of potential annual savings and provide significant impetus to research across a range of disciplines from climate science and public health to agriculture and environmental management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we assess the skill of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to forecast precipitation in several cities in western Europe. The SWG is based on a random sampling of analogs of the geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500). The SWG is evaluated for two reanalyses (NCEP and ERA5). We simulate 100-member ensemble forecasts on a daily time increment. We evaluate the performance of SWG with forecast skill scores and we compare it to ECMWF forecasts. Results show significant positive skill score (continuous rank probability skill score and correlation) compared with persistence and climatology forecasts for lead times of 5 and 10 d for different areas in Europe. We find that the low predictability episodes of our model are related to specific weather regimes, depending on the European region. Comparing the SWG forecasts to ECMWF forecasts, we find that the SWG shows a good performance for 5 d. This performance varies from one region to another. This paper is a proof of concept for a stochastic regional ensemble precipitation forecast. Its parameters (e.g., region for analogs) must be tuned for each region in order to optimize its performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present daily mean wind speed as a new variable in the publicly accessible E‐OBS gridded datasets. Each of the variables in the E‐OBS dataset is provided at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and 0.25° × 0.25°. The variable "daily mean wind speed" starts from 1980 and is updated every month. The main method that we apply is the use of adaptive covariate selection to model the monthly mean wind speed as a function of covariates, like altitude, distance to coast and surface roughness. Then, we use Gaussian process regression to interpolate the daily anomalies from the station locations to the grid locations. In addition, we develop ensemble dispersion improvement auto‐tune (EDIT) to improve the reliability of the local ensemble spread. In order to communicate the methodological uncertainty in the resulting dataset, the E‐OBS wind speed grid is provided as a 20‐member ensemble of random realizations. As part of a preliminary analysis, we investigate the hypothesized wind speed stilling effect in recent decades. Indeed, we do find a small yet significant wind speed stilling effect in the E‐OBS dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

daptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government's ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities ('hidden disaster deficits') when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today's extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like the North-Atlantic, which is characterized by a large natural variability and is intrinsically difficult to predict. A suitable framework for studying the modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation is to look for recurrent patterns, commonly referred to as Weather Regimes. Each regime is characterized by a specific large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, thus influencing regional weather and extremes over Europe. The focus of the present paper is the study of the Euro-Atlantic wintertime Weather Regimes in the climate models participating to the PRIMAVERA project. We analyse here the set of coupled historical simulations (hist-1950), which have been performed both at standard and increased resolution, following the HighresMIP protocol. The models' performance in reproducing the observed Weather Regimes is assessed in terms of different metrics, focussing on systematic biases and on the impact of resolution. We also analyse the connection of the Weather Regimes with the Jet Stream latitude and blocking frequency over the North-Atlantic sector. We find that—for most models—the regime patterns are better represented in the higher resolution version, for all regimes but the NAO-. On the other side, no clear impact of resolution is seen on the regime frequency of occurrence and persistence. Also, for most models, the regimes tend to be more tightly clustered in the increased resolution simulations, more closely resembling the observed ones. However, the horizontal resolution is not the only factor determining the model performance, and we find some evidence that biases in the SSTs and mean geopotential field might also play a role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to introduce the official statement of the Fifth European Conference on Health-Promoting Schools. Design/methodology/approach: The Fifth European Conference on Health-Promoting Schools was held on 20–22 November 2019 in Moscow, Russian Federation, with over 450 participants from 40 countries. A writing group was established to prepare a draft version of the statement before the conference. On the basis of an online and offline feedback process, the opinions of the participants were collected during the conference and included in the finalisation of the statement. Findings: The final conference statement comprises six thematic categories (values and principles; environment, climate and health; schools as part of the wider community; non-communicable diseases (NCDs); evidence base; and digital media), with a total of 23 recommendations and calls for action. Originality/value: The recommendations and calls for action reflect current challenges for Health Promoting Schools in Europe. They are addressed to all actors in governmental, non-governmental and other organisations at international, national and regional levels involved in health promotion in schools and are to be applied for the further development of the concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How climate change will unfold in the years to come is a central topic in today's environmental debate, in particular at the regional level. While projections using large ensembles of global climate models consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over southern Europe and an increase over northern Europe, individual models substantially modulate these distinct signals of change in precipitation. So far model improvements and higher resolution from regional downscaling have not been seen as able to resolve these disagreements. In this paper we assess whether 2 decades of investments in large ensembles of downscaling experiments with regional climate model simulations for Europe have contributed to a more robust model assessment of the future climate at a range of geographical scales. We study climate change projections of European seasonal temperature and precipitation using an ensemble-suite comprised by all readily available pan-European regional model projections for the twenty-first-century, representing increasing model resolution from ~ 50 to ~ 12 km grid distance, as well as lateral boundary and sea surface temperature conditions from a variety of global model simulations. Employing a simple scaling with global mean temperature change we identify emerging robust signals of future seasonal temperature and precipitation changes also found to resemble current observed trends, where these are judged to be statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresters from many countries are seeking for tree species or provenances able to cope with expected climate change. While it becomes clear that some temperate tree species will increasingly suffer from climate warming, the fate of the ecologically and economically important silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) remains uncertain and debated because the ecological requirements of this species, as well as its resilience to drought, are still unclear. On the one hand, paleoecological studies reveal that this species was widely distributed under much warmer climate, suggesting a high potential to cope with ongoing and future climate warming. On the other hand, species distribution models generally predict a strong decline of its climatic suitability in the future. This paper aims to clarify the potential of this species to thrive in central and western Europe under predicted climate warming by reviewing the knowledge gained from different fields. Based on insight from different fields, we argue that silver fir has a great potential to thrive under warmer conditions in western and central Europe provided sufficient rainfall, as forecasted by climate models for most regions by 2100. For instance, dendroecological studies demonstrate that silver fir is more resistant and resilient to drought compared to co-occurring species such as Norway spruce, European beech and larch. The most prominent obstacle for increasing the proportion of fir in mixed forests nowadays is ungulate browsing that often prevents its upgrowth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely forecasts of the onset or possible evolution of droughts are an important contribution to mitigate their manifold negative effects. In this paper we therefore analyse and compare the performance of the first month of the probabilistic extended range forecast and of the seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting droughts over the European continent. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI- 1) is used to quantify the onset or likely evolution of ongoing droughts for the next month. It can be shown that on average the extended range forecast has greater skill than the seasonal forecast, whilst both outperform climatology. No significant spatial or temporal patterns can be observed, but the scores are improved when focussing on large-scale droughts. In a second step we then analyse several different methods to convert the probabilistic forecasts of SPI into a Boolean drought warning. It can be demonstrated that methodologies which convert low percentiles of the forecasted SPI cumulative distribution function into warnings are superior in comparison with alternatives such as the mean or the median of the ensemble. The paper demonstrates that up to 40% of droughts are correctly forecasted one month in advance. Nevertheless, during false alarms or misses, we did not find significant differences in the distribution of the ensemble members that would allow for a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physical inactivity is a major public health concern, exacerbated in countries with a (sub)tropical climate. The built environment can facilitate physical activity; however, current evidence is mainly from North American and European countries with activity-friendly climate conditions. This study explored associations between built environment features and physical activity in global tropical or subtropical dry or desert climate regions. Methods: A systematic review of four major databases (Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, and SportDISCUS) was performed. To be included, studies had to investigate associations between perceived or objective built environment characteristics and adult's physical activity and had to be conducted in a location with (sub)tropical climate. Each investigated association was reported as one case and results were synthesized based upon perceived and objectively assessed environment characteristics as well as Western and non-Western countries. Study quality was evaluated using a tool designed for assessing studies on built environment and physical activity. Results: Eighty-four articles from 50 studies in 13 countries with a total of 2546 built environment-physical activity associations were included. Design (connectivity, walking/cycling infrastructure), desirability (aesthetics, safety), and destination accessibility were the built environment characteristics most frequently associated with physical activity across the domains active transport, recreational physical activity, total walking and cycling, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, particularly if multiple attributes were present at the same time. Very few studies assessed built environment attributes specifically relevant to physical activity in (sub)tropical climates. Most studies were conducted in Western countries, with results being largely comparable with non-Western countries. Findings were largely generalizable across gender and age groups. Results from natural experiments indicated that relocating to an activity-friendly neighborhood impacted sub-groups differently. Conclusions: Built environment attributes, including destination accessibility, connectivity, walking and cycling infrastructure, safety, and aesthetics, are positively associated with physical activity in locations with (sub)tropical climate. However, few studies focus on built environment attributes specifically relevant in a hot climate, such as shade or indoor recreation options. Further, there is limited evidence from non-Western countries, where most of the urban population lives in (sub)tropical climates. Policy makers should focus on implementing activity-friendly environment attributes to create sustainable and climate-resilient cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The acquisition and dissemination of essential information for understanding global biogeochemical interactions between the atmosphere and ecosystems and how climate–ecosystem feedback loops may change atmospheric composition in the future comprise a fundamental prerequisite for societal resilience in the face of climate change. In particular, the detection of trends and seasonality in the abundance of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate-active atmospheric constituents is an important aspect of climate science. Therefore, easy and fast access to reliable, long-term, and high-quality observational environmental data is recognised as fundamental to research and the development of environmental forecasting and assessment services. In our opinion article, we discuss the potential role that environmental research infrastructures in Europe (ENVRI RIs) can play in the context of an integrated global observation system. In particular, we focus on the role of the atmosphere-centred research infrastructures ACTRIS (Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure), IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System), and ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System), also referred to as ATMO-RIs, with their capabilities for standardised collection and provision of long-term and high-quality observational data, complemented by rich metadata. The ATMO-RIs provide data through open access and offer data interoperability across different research fields including all fields of environmental sciences and beyond. As a result of these capabilities in data collection and provision, we elaborate on the novel research opportunities in atmospheric sciences which arise from the combination of open-access and interoperable observational data, tools, and technologies offered by data-intensive science and the emerging collaboration platform ENVRI-Hub, hosted by the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric waveguides have been linked to amplified atmospheric Rossby waves and therefore to extreme weather events in the mid-latitudes. Waveguides have often been calculated on zonal-mean data, and/or on timescales of a month or longer. Here, I develop an objective algorithm to detect barotropic waveguides, and create a dataset of time- and spatially-varying waveguides in both summer and winter for both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere (NH/SH), including a metric of waveguide depth. In this dataset, waveguides for waves of zonal wavenumber 5 exist in the extra-tropics on more than 40 % of days across many longitudes, with the frequency of occurrence reducing for higher zonal wavenumbers. Waveguides tend to be more frequent, and deeper, in summer than in winter, and more frequent in the NH than the SH. Composites of days with high spatial mean waveguide depth over particular regions show a double jet structure associated with strong waveguide occurrence, consistent with previous research. Significant positive correlations exist between waveguide depth and the presence/strength of quasi-stationary waves. In the SH these correlations are strong across much of the mid-latitudes in both seasons, whilst in the NH significant correlations are found only over the Atlantic, Europe and Asia during NH summer, with the strongest correlations over the Atlantic and western Europe, a region notable for its strong positive trend in extreme heat temperature events in recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large hail (greater than 2 cm in diameter) can cause devastating damage to crops and property and can even cause loss of life. Because hail reports are often collected by individual countries, constructing a Europe-wide large-hail climatology has been challenging to date. However, the European Severe Storm Laboratory's European Severe Weather Database provides the only pan-European dataset for severe convective-storm reports. The database is comprised of 62 053 large-hail reports from 40 CE to September 2020, yet its characteristics have not been evaluated. Thus, the purpose of this study is to evaluate hail reports from this database for constructing a climatology of large hail. For the period 2000–2020, large-hail reports are most prominent in June, whereas large-hail days are most common in July. Large hail is mostly reported between 13:00–19:00 local time, a consistent pattern since 2010. The intensity, as measured by maximum hail size, shows decreasing frequency with increasing hailstone diameter and little change over the 20-year period. The quality of reports by country varies, with the most complete reporting being from central European countries. Thus, results suggest that despite its short record, many indications point to the dataset representing some reliable aspects of the European large-hail climatology, albeit with some limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a descriptive analysis of the carbon management activities of the cement industry in Europe, based on a study involving the four largest producers of cement in the world. Based on this analysis, the paper explores the relationship between managerial perception and strategy, with particular focus on the impact of government regulation and competitive dynamics. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on extensive documentary analysis and in-depth interviews with senior managers from the four companies who have been responsible for and/or involved in the development of climate change strategies. Findings – It was found that whilst the cement industry has embraced climate change and the need for action, there remains much scope for action in their carbon management activities, with current effort concentrating on hedging practices and win-win efficiency programs. Managers perceive that inadequate and unfavourable regulatory structure is the key barrier against more action to achieve emission reduction within the industry. Interestingly, EU cement companies are also shifting their CO2 emissions to less developed countries of the South. Originality/value – The paper analyses corporate climate strategy in one of the most carbon intensive and yet least studied industries. With specific focus on the EU, the paper highlights a number of policy approaches for encouraging the cement industry on the path of deeper emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topic of this paper is the importance of climate for the population and settlement in medieval and early modern times. Were the demographic crises caused by crop failure and famine or by disease? I begin by reviewing European research (particularly English) relating to the issue. The views of Norwegian historians regarding the causes of the agrarian crisis in the late Middle Ages are then examined. Hasund (Hasund S, 1919, 1944, Den store mannedauden. Or Noregs bondesoge. Glytt og granskingar II, Oslo, pp. 82–161. First printed in Beretning om Norges Landbrukshøiskoles virksomhet 1918–1919) claimed it was the plagues, not the climate, that held the population at a low level to the end of the Middle Ages, a view that has been repeated in recent years by such researchers as Lunden (Lunden K, 2002, Norges landbrukshistorie II, 1350–1814. Frå svartedauden til 17. mai. Oslo) and Moseng (Moseng OG, 2006, Den flyktige pesten. Vilkårene for epidemier i Norge i seinmiddelalder og tidlig nytid. Oslo). This paper claims that the role of the climate has been underestimated, in particular that the climatic shock of several bad years in a row directly and indirectly brought appreciable excess mortality in a country situated so far north. ‘Bad’ years demonstrated through dendrochronology are in many cases reflected in documentary evidence concerning poor corn harvests and high mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper provides an overview of the existing systems of natural hazard insurance in Europe, their structural characteristics and peculiarities. It also 0discusses the difficulties of adaptation of these systems to climate change and the growing number of natural disasters. Using Germany, Austria and Switzerland as examples, the paper demonstrates that based on the status quo, the Swiss monopoly insurance system, which is embedded within a unique direct voting environment, is most able to reduce micro- and macroeconomic disruptions resulting from natural hazards. 'Change in diversity' is seen to offer the best chance to arrive at insurance systems that are prepared for climate change while being adapted to local particularities. Efforts to harmonize national and regional systems as well as top-down EU initiatives are argued to be inadequate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the author discusses the global impact of global climate policies. He mentions the trade-related issues that have led to various proposals to incorporate trade policies into the unilateral climate policies that have both considered by the U.S. and Europe. The author also states the insignificance of relying on unilateral actions in the presence of international policy externalities.

Urban location is a multidimensional phenomenon: its dimensions are attributes, natural and man-made, which together affect urban performance. To capture their combined effect, the paper introduces the concept of 'location package'—i.e. the set of location-related advantages enjoyed by an urban place, such as proximity to other population centres, climate and topography. The hypothesis is that looking at urban location as a package of attributes, whose components may enhance or detract from each other, improves the empirical estimates of the effect of location on urban performance. This hypothesis is tested using population growth data on urban settlements in 40 European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes in the climatic system have been observed, which may be attributed to human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Even stronger changes are projected for the future, impacting in an increasing way on human activity sectors. The present contribution, prepared in the framework of the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) Project of the European Union, reviews how climate change may impact on winter tourism in the Alpine region, intense precipitation and flood potential in central Europe, forest damage in Scandinavia and beach holidays in the Mediterranean coast. Impacts are likely to be serious and largely adverse. Due to a lack of adequate information and lack of broadly accepted and reliable mathematical models describing the impact of changes in climate extremes on these activity sectors, it has been found useful to use expert judgement based impact assessment. Accordingly, regional mini-workshops were organized serving as platforms for communication between scientists and stakeholders, vehicles for dissemination of the state-of-the-art of the scientific understanding and for learning stakeholders’ view on extreme events, their impacts and the preparedness system. Stakeholders had the opportunity to react to the scientific results and to reflect on their perception of the likely impacts of projected changes in extremes on relevant activity sectors and the potential to adapt and avert adverse consequences. The results reported in this paper present the stakeholders’ suggestions for essential information on different extreme event impacts and their needs from science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already having impacts on biodiversity within Europe, with habitats and species needing to change and adapt to rising global temperatures and shifts in bio-climatic zones. Spatial planning represents an important intervention to further European, national and local biodiversity objectives for climate change adaptation. Drawing on case-studies of plans for inland and coastal areas, and involving stakeholder workshops, this paper reports on a trans-national study examining the scope of spatial plans in the Netherlands, England and France in addressing the impact of climate change. It concludes that spatial planning is making provision for biodiversity and dynamic natural processes. However, while good practice in planning for biodiversity under conditions of climate change is developing, systematic use is not being made of available procedures. The paper examines some of the barriers to implementation of this new policy commitment to climate change adaptation. Recommendations are made covering policy development to include climate change impacts upon biodiversity, modified procedures for plan-making and the appraisal of plans and projects. Amongst the specific measures recommended are the climate-proofing of projects and plans through the use of EIA and SEA; the integration of plans through adoption of common objectives and review of time horizons and boundaries; and an ecosystem-based planning approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three algorithm intercomparison experiments have recently been conducted as part of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project with the goal of (a) assessing the skill of current satellite rainfall algorithms, (b) understanding the differences between them, and (c) moving toward improved algorithms. The results of these experiments are summarized and intercompared in this paper. It was found that the skill of satellite rainfall algorithms depends on the regime being analyzed, with algorithms producing very good results in the tropical western Pacific and over Japan and its surrounding waters during summer, but relatively poor rainfall estimates over western Europe during late winter. Monthly rainfall was estimated most accurately by algorithms using geostationary infrared data, but algorithms using polar data [Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)] were also able to produce good monthly rainfall estimates when data from two satellites were available. In most eases, SSM/I algorithms showed significantly greater skill than IR-based algorithms in estimating instantaneous rain rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heterogeneous radiative forcing in mid-latitudes, such as that exerted by aerosols, has been found to affect the Arctic climate, though the mechanisms remain debated. In this study, we leverage Deep Learning (DL) techniques to explore the complex response of the Arctic climate system to local radiative forcing over Europe. We conducted sensitivity experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) coupled with atmosphere-ocean–land surface components. Utilizing a DL-based clustering method, we classify atmospheric circulation patterns in a lower-dimensional space, focusing on Poleward Moist Static Energy Transport (PMSET) as our primary parameter. We developed a novel method to analyze the circulation patterns' contributions to various climatic parameter anomalies. Our findings indicate that the negative forcing over Europe alters existing circulation patterns and their occurrence frequency without introducing new ones. Specifically, we identify changes in a circulation pattern with a high-pressure system over Scandinavia as a key driver for reduced Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea during autumn. This circulation pattern also influences middle atmospheric dynamics, although its contribution is relatively minor compared to other circulation patterns that resemble the phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our multidimensional approach combines DL algorithms and human expertise to offer a novel analytical tool that could have broader applications in climate science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper evaluates the alteration of certain night-time climate indices namely warm nights (Tmin > 17 °C) and tropical nights (Tmin ≥20 °C) during the 21st century in the city of Szeged. This examination was performed within the framework of a project founded by International Visegrad Fund, where the change of more climate indices were examined in several Central European cities. In this study the MUKLIMO_3 microclimatic model was used, which ensured the modelling of the local scale processes in the examined area. In the model for the land use we applied the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system. In order to analyze longer periods the cuboid method was applied, which is a dynamical-statistical downscaling technique. We calculated the indices for 1981-2010 based on measurements and for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 from the EURO-CORDEX datasets. In this study we present the results of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our results show that highest values appear in the city centre and the number of the days clearly increases in the 21st century especially according to scenario RCP 8.5. The values depend on the built-up types and there are more days towards to the densely built-up LCZs. Moreover, considering the relative changes of the zones, larger values appear in sparsely built-up zones and natural surfaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts are already happening through the world, and it is now clear that there is the need for an adaptive response from global institutions down to the local level. Reducing vulnerability to cope with climate variability might be more challenging in tropical countries than in North America or Europe. The ten papers of this special issue were presented during the Adaptclim conference that was held by the Sinergia Project, the CLARIS LPB project, and the GeoData Institute in Asunción, Paraguay, in 2010. All papers, except one regarding the Brahmaputra Basin in South Asia, present studies from South America. These studies are first contextualized geographically and then are related one to another by a simplified vulnerability concept linking climate stress to sensitivity and adaptive capacity of natural and human systems. One half of the papers focus on actual or future climate change and the present-day causes of the vulnerability of natural and agrosystems. Droughts are and will be the main source of stress for agriculture in South America. Increasing fragmentation of forest of the center of this continent is aggravating their vulnerability to dry spells. Another half of the studies of this special issue deal with the adaptive capacity human populations to system perturbations produced or enhanced by climate change. The studies point out inclusion of traditional knowledge and involvement of local actors in their own vulnerability assessment to increase adaptive capacity. These elements of climate justice, giving voice to those less responsible for carbon emissions but bearing their most severe consequences, allow the particular needs of a community to be considered and can direct adaptation policy toward preserving or rebuilding their specific capabilities under threat from climate change. The special issue also made clear that a basin analysis of the climate change problem could provide information, results, and methods more readily of use for the local population and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hailstorms represent one of the major sources of damage and insurance loss to residential, commercial, and agricultural assets in several parts of Central Europe. However, there is little knowledge of hail risk across Europe beyond local historical damage reports due to the relative rarity of severe hail events and the lack of uniform detection methods. Here we present a new stochastic catalog of hailstorms for Europe. It is based on satellite observations of overshooting cloud tops (OT) that indicate very strong convective updrafts and hail reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). Historic hail events are defined based on OT detections from satellite infrared brightness temperatures between 2004 and 2011 for the warm seasons (April-September). The satellite-based historical event properties are complemented by hailstone observations from ESWD to stochastically simulate more than 1 million individual events with an event footprint resolution of 10 km. The final hail event catalog presented in this paper is the first one with a spatial event distribution that is based on a single homogeneous observation source over Europe. Areas of high hail probability or hail risk are found over Central and Southern Europe, including mountainous regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees. Another region of relatively high hail risk is present over central Eastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel data set of regional climate model simulations over Europe that significantly improves our ability to detect changes in weather extremes under low and moderate levels of global warming. The data set provides a unique and physically consistent data set, as it is derived from a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. These simulations were driven by two global climate models from the international HAPPI consortium. The set consists of 100 × 10-year simulations and 25 × 10-year simulations, respectively. These large ensembles allow for regional climate change and weather extremes to be investigated with an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous climate simulations. The changes in four climate indices for temperature targets of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming are quantified: number of days per year with daily mean near-surface apparent temperature of > 28 °C (ATG28); the yearly maximum 5-day sum of precipitation (RX5day); the daily precipitation intensity of the 50-yr return period (RI50yr); and the annual Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). This work shows that even for a small signal in projected global mean temperature, changes of extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated. For temperature related indices changes in percentiles can also be estimated with high confidence. Such data can form the basis for tailor-made climate information that can aid adaptive measures at a policy-relevant scales, indicating potential impacts at low levels of global warming at steps of 0.5 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are gaining prominence committing to respond to the threat of climate change, e.g., by developing local climate plans or strategies. However, little is known regarding the approaches and processes of plan development and implementation, or the success and effectiveness of proposed measures. Mainstreaming is regarded as one approach associated with (implementation) success, but the extent of integration of local climate policies and plans in ongoing sectoral and/or development planning is unclear. This paper analyses 885 cities across the 28 European countries to create a first reference baseline on the degree of climate mainstreaming in local climate plans. This will help to compare the benefits of mainstreaming versus dedicated climate plans, looking at policy effectiveness and ultimately delivery of much needed climate change efforts at the city level. All core cities of the European Urban Audit sample were analyzed, and their local climate plans classified as dedicated or mainstreamed in other local policy initiatives. It was found that the degree of mainstreaming is low for mitigation (9% of reviewed cities; 12% of the identified plans) and somewhat higher for adaptation (10% of cities; 29% of plans). In particular horizontal mainstreaming is a major effort for local authorities; an effort that does not necessarily pay off in terms of success of action implementation. This study concludes that climate change issues in local municipalities are best tackled by either, developing a dedicated local climate plan in parallel to a mainstreamed plan or by subsequently developing first the dedicated and later a mainstreaming plan (joint or subsequent "dual track approach"). Cities that currently provide dedicated local climate plans (66% of cities for mitigation; 26% of cities for adaptation) may follow-up with a mainstreaming approach. This promises effective implementation of tangible climate actions as well as subsequent diffusion of climate issues into other local sector policies. The development of only broad sustainability or resilience strategies is seen as critical. • Trends in mainstreaming climate change issues were analyzed for 885 cities EU-28. • EU cities provide numerous local mitigation (#664) and/or adaptation (#321) plans. • Mainstreaming was investigated as vertical and horizontal approach. • 9% of cities have mainstreamed mitigation LCP; 12% of mitigation LCPs mainstreamed. • 10% of cities have mainstreamed adaptation LCP; 29% of adaptation LCPs mainstreamed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment scheme that should help local conservation management in their adaptation to potential effects of climate change. It can be used for the identification of robust adaptation options at site level. The assessment scheme was applied to the management of Europe's largest population of wild mountain reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus tarandus) living in the arctic-alpine plateau of Hardangervidda in south-western Norway. At first, the last four decades (1964-2004) were analysed to identify climate- and non-climate-related driving forces affecting the population. In addition, regional projections of climate change were used to build scenarios for the potential effects on these driving forces until 2050. In the second step, the potential effects of climate change were classified according to the risk they pose to the conservation of reindeer in Hardangervidda. Based on this assessment, no-regret strategies for biodiversity management under changing climate conditions could be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of the thunderstorm climate of the Baltic countries during the period of 1951-2000. Our study area is in northeastern Europe and encompasses Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Visual thunderstorm observations at 59 weather stations were used as a data source. The mean annual number of thunderstorm days was 12-29.5. The seasonal cycle of thunderstorm hours with a daily step unexpectedly showed two maxima, whereas the monthly numbers of thunderstorm days had one clear mid-latitude specific peak between June and August. The diurnal cycle of thunderstorm hours showed a peak between 1400 and 1800 local time and a minimum between 0400 and 1000 hours local time. The average annual duration of thunderstorm events was 112 min. The average number of thunderstorm events per thunderstorm day was around 1.1-1.2. Our results showed that the thunderstorm climate of the Baltic countries generally resembles that of other mid-latitude study sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new 300-year daily series of Mean Sea-Level Pressure (MSLP) for the city of London. Daily barometer readings recorded in the vicinity of London were digitised from several sources and by joining these data with previously available data, a near-continuous series was constructed to span the period 1692-2007. The data were quality controlled and then corrected to represent daily means of MSLP at standard modern-day conditions. This series was then subjected to a statistical homogenisation procedure. The Penalized Maximal t-test was used with several reference series to identify breakpoints in the series over the period 1780-2007. In the absence of suitable reference series, the homogeneity of the earlier 1692-1779 period was tested using the Penalized Maximal F-test. Both tests were implemented through the RHtestV2 software on the monthly and annual means derived from the daily data. The majority of the identified breakpoints could be supported by meta-data and most occur at the juncture of the component series. A major feature of the homogenised series is that the long-term mean is 1.2 hPa lower than that of the previous monthly series for London created under the EU ADVICE project for the period 1774-1999. The long-term mean of 1015.2 hPa for the new series is more consistent with other long MSLP series in the UK. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world has entered a post-industrial era. In order to maintain the existing pattern of international interests and dominate the technologies and markets of new energy in the future, some developed countries in Europe and the Americas have carefully designed a disastrous and even lethal climate trap for the developing countries including China. This paper elaborates on the building and cracking of the climate trap from the philosophical point of view, especially from the relationship between the natural nature and the artificial nature. It then proposes such concepts as climatic natural nature and climatic artificial nature, and analyzes the characteristics of their reciprocal effects. On this basis, this paper respectively gives detailed analyses of the building and cracking of the profit-making climate trap, the fear-causing climate trap and the guilt-provoking climate trap so as to clarify the confusions in understanding these issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the ability of the multi-model simulations from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the main leading modes of variability over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter: the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian mode (SCAND), the East/Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia mode (EA/WR). These modes of variability have been evaluated both spatially, by analyzing the intensity and location of their anomaly centres, as well as temporally, by focusing on the probability density functions and e-folding time scales. The choice of variability modes as a tool for climate model assessment can be justified by the fact that modes of variability determine local climatic conditions and their likely change may have important implications for future climate changes. It is found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably well these four variability modes, the SCAND being the mode which is best spatially simulated. From a temporal point of view the NAO and SCAND modes are the best simulated. UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the models best at reproducing spatial characteristics, whereas CCSM3 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best ones with regard to the temporal features. GISS-AOM is the model showing the worst performance, in terms of both spatial and temporal features. These results may bring new insight into the selection and use of specific models to simulate Euro-Atlantic climate, with some models being clearly more successful in simulating patterns of temporal and spatial variability than others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The field of quantitative palaeoclimatology has made significant progress in the past decades. However, this progress has been spatially heterogeneous and strong discrepancies – both in terms of quality and density – exist between Europe and North America and the rest of the world. The need to balance this distribution of quantified records has never been stronger, and improving our understanding of past global climate is urgent in order to better evaluate and employ the predictions of climate models. In this paper, it is argued that this gap can be reduced by applying the climate reconstruction method CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware) calibrated using the open-access GBIF (Global Biodiversity Information Facility) database, which contains hundreds of thousands modern distributions of numerous bio-indicator proxies (e.g. pollen, chironomids, foraminifers, etc.). Using the taxonomical diversity of the GBIF database, CREST can be used to reconstruct various climate and/or environmental parameters from assemblage variety of different records. Independent from the usual reconstruction techniques using surface samples for calibration, the CREST/GBIF framework can also be used as an independent tool that can be easily and efficiently applied (1) to complete the global coverage of climate reconstructions, as exemplified with a precipitation reconstruction from Lake Van, Turkey, (2) to revisit existing data sets to obtain new quantitative reconstructions, and (3) to evaluate and/or refine reconstructions based on other methods. The application of this tool promises to foster advances in our understanding of the past climate variability of the Earth system at a global scale. Highlights • A new, globally applicable probabilistic tool to quantitively reconstruct past climates. • The calibration dataset contains the distributions of multiple palaeoclimatic bio-indicators. • Understudied regions can now be explored using the CREST/GBIF framework. • A dedicated software exists to facilitate the use of the CREST/GBIF framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning is one of the leading causes of weather-related fatalities worldwide and also has a strong impact on atmospheric chemistry (i.e., NOx production). Lightning can also lead to power system breakdowns, ignite forest fires, damage wind turbine and lead to perturbation of transportation, in particular to aviation. Thus, knowing when, where lightning strike and which atmospheric environments are more frequently associated with lightning is important. Furthermore, given the increase in the population density in recent decades (i.e., more people are exposed to lightning) and the increased urbanization (i.e., cities are getting larger and thus are more exposed to lightning) is essential to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of storm producing lightning and their environments in the current climate and their changes in the past and coming decades. To address these issues, in this study we analyze the changes in the number of days with atmospheric conditions leading to lightning over southeastern Europe. Here we consider the non-inductive charging mechanism as the main mechanism for cloud electrification. We search for ingredients supporting for this cloud electrification mechanism using a series of parameters (e.g., convective available potential energy, total precipitable water, heights of various isotherms) obtained from vertical profiles collected from radiosonde sites over southeastern Europe (e.g., Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria). This paper will present the changes between 1980 and 2018 in the number of days with condition supporting the occurrence of lightning in urban areas from southeastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts from the observation that development projects that create various forms of environmental injustice in Europe are an integral part of the process of biospheric expulsions, that is of pushing out groups from adequate land, water or air, as described by Saskia Sassen (2014). Apart from the environmental, socio-economic and health-impacts of ecologically destructive projects, there is an added dimension of concern that has been less obvious in the past, but tends to become increasingly pronounced in a warming world. Is it possible that accumulating environmental inequalities and forms of injustice can create new and "unnatural" vulnerabilities to the projected climate change impacts? The fi rst question that we tackle is whether environmental justice confl icts in Europe tend to take place disproportionately in climate hotspot areas, which are geographic spaces with above-average social sensitivity, potential vulnerability, potential social impact, potential environmental impacts or response capacity (ESPON, 2011). The second question concerns the distribution of diff erent characteristics of projects and of their associated confl icts in climate hotspot vs. non-hotspot areas. The fi nal goal is to establish, at a preliminary level, the emergence of a climate edge in Europe, a spatial confi guration in which vulnerability to climate change impacts is shaped by processes of biospheric expulsion, as postulated at a general level by Sassen. For the analysis, the most current data on environmental justice confl icts (444) from the Environmental Justice Atlas and ESPON climate impact projections, mapped on the Climate Adapt platform, are used. The expected result is to provide a preliminary description of the postulated climate edge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The passive house (PH) concept has been developed in Germany since 1991. In the following years, the concept spread out successfully in other Western and Central European countries with similar climate. Do the design solutions developed in Germany ensure the fulfillment of PH standard requirements when implemented in areas with different climates, such as South-Eastern Europe? This paper provides a preliminary answer. First, general climate conditions are compared for 22 towns in Germany and Romania, respectively. The main conclusion is that climate data cannot provide enough information to decide whether the existing German PH design solutions will perform similarly well in Romania. Further analysis is done to estimate the energetic performance of a prototype passive building when located in any of the 22 towns of Germany and Romania. The energetic performance is computed by using the Passive House Planning Package (PHPP) software developed by the Passive House Institute of Darmstadt. The prototype passive building is AMVIC PH built in 2009 in Bragadiru (near Bucharest, Romania). It appears that the empirical design solutions developed in Germany may be relaxed (for example, the thermal insulation of the envelope may be reduced) when implemented for latitudes lower than 45° North. This is mainly due to the more abundant solar radiation in winter at these latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Deriving a parameterisation of ammonia emissions for use in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) is a complex problem as the emission varies locally as a result of local climate and local agricultural management. In current CTMs such factors are generally not taken into account. This paper demonstrates how local climate and local management can be accounted for in CTMs by applying a modular approach for deriving data as input to a dynamic ammonia emission model for Europe. Default data are obtained from information in the RAINS system, and it is demonstrated how this dynamic emission model based on these input data improves the NH3 calculations in a CTM model when the results are compared with calculations obtained by traditional methods in emission handling. It is also shown how input data can be modified over a specific target region resulting in even further improvement in performance over this domain. The model code and the obtained default values for the modelling experiments are available as supplementary information to this article for use by the modelling community on similar terms as the EMEP CTM model: the GPL licencse v3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We analyse the lifetimes (persistence) of circulation types using 23 classifications (of which 18 are objective and 5 subjective) in the period 1957–2002 over Europe and its subregions. The objective catalogues are developed on the same gridded climatic data (ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis) but differ in the classification method used and in the number of synoptic types. Significant seasonal trends in the lifetime (both positive and negative) are fairly scarce and are present in all seasons in the manual catalogues only. In the subjective Hess–Brezowsky catalogue, there is an abrupt shift toward higher persistence in 1986, whereas in the Hungarian manual catalogue, a smaller but significant negative shift took place in the same year. These statistical inconsistencies probably result from inhomogeneities in the subjective catalogues. Our results suggest that the increase in the persistence of circulation types reported recently in several papers for the Hess–Brezowsky catalogue is an artefact rather than a real feature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of European and Russian Quaternary glacial-geological evidence during the last 15 years has generated sufficient data to use former glacial extent as a proxy for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate (precipitation and temperature) at a continental scale. Utilisation of such data is relevant for two reasons. First, continental to global scale proxy reconstructions of past climate are an important tool in the assessment of retrospective general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Second, the development of a multiproxy approach will result in a more robust proxy based climate signal. A new and independent dataset of 36 LGM precipitation and temperature relationships derived from European and Russian mountain regions is presented in this paper. A simple glacier-climate model was used to establish the optimum LGM precipitation/temperature conditions for each region from a suite of over 4000 model climates using the principle of zero cumulative mass balance. Clear regional trends are present in the reconstructed LGM precipitation and temperature curves; assuming present precipitation temperature anomalies north of the Alps are 2°C and 5°C larger than those in the western and eastern Mediterranean, respectively. In Russia the model results suggest that the climates in both the Arctic Urals and Puterana Plateau were probably conducive to the existence of small mountain glaciers at the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding rainfall variability in the arid, rugged landscapes of Iran requires studying the climatology and spatial patterns of daily precipitation. This paper applies geostatistical and other methods to daily precipitation data from 90 stations that are distributed across Iran to calculate daily rainfall concentration and intensity and map their spatial distribution. The results show that daily precipitation tends to be irregular and intense across much of Iran and that a disproportionately large share of the annual rainfall comes from a small number of high intensity to extreme rainfall events. Analysis of daily rainfall concentration confirms that extreme events are widely distributed across the country, with more than 20% of the land area exposed to the risk of extreme rainfall. The areas experiencing the most frequent extreme events are the hot, dry southern coast and the western slopes of the main north–south range, the Zagros Mountains. Even the wettest parts of the country along the Caspian Sea coast derive a significant amount of their rain from high intensity and extreme events. A cross-validation analysis supports the reliability and accuracy of the geostatistical modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the changes in the precipitation climatologies of Europe for the periods 1960–90 and 2070–2100 using a heterogeneous set of regional climate models (RCMs). The authors used the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) database to define a precipitation climatology for current climate conditions (1960–90), then compare the estimates with the RCMs’ simulations for the same period using spectral analysis. After the authors evaluated the performance of the models compared with validation data for current climate, they calculated the future climate spectra (2070–2100). Changes in the future climate have been evaluated in terms of differences in the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle with respect to present conditions. The results show that models provide consistent results and that under the A2 scenario (increased greenhouse gases conditions) precipitation climatologies in Europe are expected to suffer noticeable changes, the most important being a strengthening of the annual cycle in most of the Atlantic coastal areas of the continent. While total amounts of rainfall might undergo little change, the consequences of changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation will strongly affect both ecosystems and human activities. Differences were also found in the probability distribution function (pdf) of precipitation, indicating an overall increase in the frequency of precipitation-related hazards in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the caespitose perennial pastures of acidophilous character belonging to the Festucetea indigestae class in South-west Europe. The survey deals with a total of 33 associations included in this class. While some of these have a climactic significance in the Iberian high mountains, others occurring at lower altitudes have a serial character. All the synthetic tables of the associations included in the class have been examined by means of hierarchical clustering (SPSS 5.11). The survey not only includes the analysis of the floristic composition, altitudinal distribution of the syntaxa and their chorological distribution, but also the analysis of the spectra of biological types occurring in all the associations and higher ranks. The survey ends with a taxonomical classification of the class that includes the description of a new association. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the soil–atmosphere feedbacks and uncertainties under current (1960–1990) and plausible future climate conditions (2070–2100, using the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario). For this purpose, two vegetation descriptions differing only in the grassland and grass-with-trees proportion in some parts of the domain have been created. The combination of these two different climate scenarios and two vegetation descriptions defines four different 30-year experiments, which have been completed using a regional climate model. The domain is centered around the Mediterranean basin and covers most of Europe. The study focuses on the summer season when there are major differences between the two vegetation descriptions and when the impact of land–surface processes on precipitation is largest. Present climate experiments show large evapotranspiration differences over areas where vegetation changes have taken place. Precipitation increases (up to 3 mm day−1 in some regions) follow evapotranspiration increases, although with a more complex spatial structure. These results indicate a high sensitivity at regional scales of summer precipitation processes to vegetation changes. Future climate simulations show very similar changes to those observed in the current climate experiments. This indicates that the impacts of climate change are relatively independent to the land-cover descriptions used in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A climatology of various parameters associated with severe convective storms has been constructed for Europe. This involves using the reanalysis data base from ERA-40 for the period 1971–2000 and calculating monthly means, variability range and extremes occurrence of fields such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, mid-tropospheric lapse rate, low-tropospheric moisture content and storm relative helicity for different layers. This process is a first step towards development of a synthetic climatology of European severe weather, and is publicly available at the web site http://ecss.uib.es. Preliminary results derived from these products were presented during the ECSS 2004 conference. This paper is devoted to a more detailed presentation and discussion of the main results. It is hypothesized that preferred areas for severe thunderstorms occurrence in Europe would extend along a zonal belt over the south-central regions, where high helicity associated with the extratropical storm tracks and thermodynamically-favourable profiles established over the southern Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea would most likely be concatenated. Further, this effort has been complemented with a collection of existing reports of significant (at least F2) tornadoes in Europe during the period 1971–2003. We present this data set in this paper and it also can be found at the website http://ecss.uib.es. Thus, the tornado collection can be used to test the appropriateness of the parameters selected for the synthetic climatology. In particular, it is found that the convective available potential energy, low-tropospheric moisture content and environmental shear, when related to the monthly climatology, are reasonably good descriptors of the tornadic environments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is now firmly recognized by the majority of the world's scientists and governments as an issue of extreme concern for the global population. Outdoor recreation and tourism are likely to be impacted directly and indirectly by such change, as both the climate, and the natural environment associated with it, continue to alter. At the same time, however, tourism activity is itself a contributor to the problem of climate change due to its dependency on fossil fuel consumption. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the reader to the relationships between climate change, and outdoor recreation and tourism, in Europe through a review of the relatively limited empirical evidence on this subject to date. Topics discussed include the potential impacts of projected climate change on human health and comfort, possible shifts in preferred destinations, and potential alterations in current patterns of seasonality. Various avenues of future research are also proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]