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Renewables, such as solar and wind generation, combined with storage are becoming a key part of modern grid. This paper develops probabilistic tools for analysis of grid reliability with such variable generation resources. The developed tools improve speed and accuracy of the reliability analysis compared to usual Monte Carlo methods. This is achieved by using an extension of well known convolution method applicable to interdependent variables. The interdependent distributions are obtained from historical data using Machine Learning of quantile models. The paper presents a novel approach to the analysis of reliability contribution of storage based on these models and related to Information Theory. The developed tools are demonstrated in several example scenarios for ISO-New England service area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increase of practical power system complexity, power system online stability assessment and control is more and more important. Application of the traditional model-driven methods is always limited by contradiction between accuracy and efficiency, while data-driven methods demonstrate strong abilities for the online decision-making support with advancement of various data mining techniques. Instead of direct application of data-driven methods in the power system, this paper first discusses feasible integration approaches for the model-driven and data-driven methods based on the existing achievements, and then, proposes to integrate both methods for the power system online frequency stability assessment and control. The integrated method consists of frequency dynamics prediction and load shedding procedure. In frequency dynamics prediction procedure, integration of system frequency response (SFR) model and the extreme learning machine (ELM)-based learning model is applied, where basic physical causality is kept in the SFR model and ELM is used to fit and correct error of the SFR. The ELM also plays a part in load shedding prediction model construction by digging out mapping relationship from samples. Finally, the proposed prediction and control scheme for the frequency stability is verified by simulations on WSCC 9-bus, New England 39-bus, and NPCC 140-bus system. Results show that the reliability, time efficiency, and accuracy are enhanced with the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a Koopman operator-based surrogate model for propagating parameter uncertainties in power system nonlinear dynamic simulations. First, we augment a priori known state-space model by reformulating parameters deemed uncertain as pseudo-state variables. Then, we apply the Koopman operator theory to the resulting state-space model and obtain a linear dynamical system model. This transformation allows us to analyze the evolution of the system dynamics through its Koopman eigenfunctions, eigenvalues, and modes. Of particular importance for this letter, the obtained linear dynamical system is a surrogate that enables the evaluation of parameter uncertainties by simply perturbing the initial conditions of the Koopman eigenfunctions associated with the pseudo-state variables. Simulations carried out on the New England test system reveal the excellent performance of the proposed method in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an analytically tractable Bayesian method to infer parameters in power system dynamic models from noisy measurements of bus-voltage magnitudes and frequencies as well as active- and reactive-power injections. The proposed method is computationally appealing as it bypasses the large number of system model simulations typically required in sampling-based Bayesian inference. Instead, it relies on analytical linearization of the nonlinear system differential-algebraic-equation model enabled by trajectory sensitivities. Central to the proposed method is the construction of a linearized model with the maximum probability of being (closest to) the actual nonlinear model that gave rise to the measurement data. The linear model together with Gaussian prior leads to a conjugate family where the parameter posterior, model evidence, and their gradients can be computed in closed form, markedly improving scalability for large-scale power systems. We illustrate the effectiveness and key features of the proposed method with numerical case studies for a three-bus system. Algorithmic scalability is then demonstrated via case studies involving the New England 39-bus test system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency nadir is a significant indicator for the primary frequency response monitoring and control. It is imperative to predict the maximum frequency deviation and the time at which the maximum occurs with high efficiency and accuracy following a major disturbance. To develop an analytical model for the frequency nadir prediction, the closed-loop is broken and a parabolic frequency deviation is input for decoupling the calculation of governor response and frequency deviation. Following which, the polynomial fitting is adopted to depict the primary frequency response characteristic of each governor. The iterative numerical solution for the frequency nadir prediction model is carried out based on the insight into the features of governor response. Case studies are presented to verify the performance of the analytical model over WSCC 9-bus system, New England 39-bus system and practical provincial power system, where the frequency nadir prediction model demonstrates its advantages of easy implementation, minimum computation, and high accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unit commitment, one of the most critical tasks in electric power system operations, faces new challenges as the supply and demand uncertainty increases dramatically due to the integration of variable generation resources such as wind power and price responsive demand. To meet these challenges, we propose a two-stage adaptive robust unit commitment model for the security constrained unit commitment problem in the presence of nodal net injection uncertainty. Compared to the conventional stochastic programming approach, the proposed model is more practical in that it only requires a deterministic uncertainty set, rather than a hard-to-obtain probability distribution on the uncertain data. The unit commitment solutions of the proposed model are robust against all possible realizations of the modeled uncertainty. We develop a practical solution methodology based on a combination of Benders decomposition type algorithm and the outer approximation technique. We present an extensive numerical study on the real-world large scale power system operated by the ISO New England. Computational results demonstrate the economic and operational advantages of our model over the traditional reserve adjustment approach. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]