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The persistence barrier (PB), one of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties, has exhibited a significant decadal variability, showing enhanced and weakened behavior before and after the late 1970s, respectively. In the present study, both the theoretical solution and the observations indicate that the variability of PB intensity is linearly proportional to the seasonal amplitude of ENSO growth rate, which accounts for the ENSO PB decadal variability. With further use of the Bjerknes–Jin (BJ) index analysis, we find that the decadal reduction in PB intensity since the late 1970s is mainly attributed to the mean advection and the thermocline feedback. In addition, the stronger spring thermal damping delayed the timing of PB in the 1980s and 1990s. Our study establishes a linear relationship between PB intensity and ENSO growth rate, which carries implications for understanding the ENSO predictability and the systematic changes in ENSO properties under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) substantially affects the climate in the Pacific and East Asia. Previous studies have revealed that the springtime Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) sea surface temperature zonal gradient (SSTG) could be used as a predictor of the subsequent summertime WPSH's intensity. Here, we find that the interannual variability of the springtime IPWP SSTG has greatly decreased after the late 1990s, accompanied by the weakened relationship between the springtime IPWP SSTG and the following summertime WPSH, which may reduce the efficiency of the springtime IPWP SSTG as a key predictor for the summertime WPSH in recent decades. This observed recent weakening IPWP SSTG–WPSH relationship could be largely contributed by the decadal shift of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the WPSH around the late 1990s. The ENSO regime shift from the eastern Pacific (EP) type to the central Pacific (CP) type could alter the spatial pattern of the springtime IPWP sea surface temperature (SST) dipole and further weaken the local air–sea interaction between the underlying IPWP SST and the WPSH. From another perspective of the WPSH decadal shift, the WPSH‐related first leading mode before (after) the late 1990s, characterized by a large‐scale uniform (dipole) pattern with an oscillating period of ~4–5 year (~2–3 year), tended to promote a stronger (weaker) linkage with the springtime IPWP SSTG. In addition, the recent enhancement of the tropical Atlantic SST influences is considered to possibly promote the decadal shifts of the ENSO and the WPSH‐related leading mode. After the springtime tropical Atlantic SST was added as a predictor, the predicting skills of the empirical equation for the summertime WPSH could be substantially improved. The results herein have important implications for the further improvement of the seasonal WPSH prediction, which is of great practical significance in the prevention and mitigation of climate disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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