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We analysed the geodetic and seismic strain rates for composite analysis of seismic hazard potential of the Kumaun-Garhwal region of Northwest Himalaya. The principal geodetic strain rate is estimated using plate motion measurements at 144 Global Positioning System (GPS) sites reported in past ~ 20 years in the region. A modified least square inversion approach that utilizes a distance-based scale factor on the uncertainty in the velocity data is applied to get a reliable estimate of geodetic strain rate. Results indicate extensive compression in the region with a mean rate of − 113 nano strain/year towards NNE in the Higher Himalaya. The principal seismic strain rate is calculated from the focal mechanism solutions of the earthquakes in the region using the Kostrov formulation. We analysed the geodetic strain rate together with seismic strain rate using seismicity catalogue of 50, 220 and 700 years and found that the orientation of principal strain rates are consistent with each other. However, the seismic strain rate estimated from 700 years catalogue is comparable with geodetic strain rate indicating the high accumulation of elastic strain energy in this region. Analysis of strain budget using geodetic and seismic moment rates of this region, suggest a large amount of stored strain energy of ~ 5E + 21 Nm in the past 700 years which has a potential to generate a megathrust earthquake (Mw ≥ 8) in the present scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study reports the contemporary deformation of the tectonically complex northeast India using 11 years (2002-2013) of GPS observations. The central Shillong Plateau and few sites north of Plateau located in Assam Valley behave like a rigid block with ~7 mm/year India-fixed southward velocity. The Euler pole of rotation of this central Shillong Plateau-Assam Valley (SH-AS) block is estimated to be at −25.1° ± 0.2°N, −97.8° ± 1.8°E with an angular velocity of 0.533° ± 0.10° Myr relative to India-fixed reference frame. Kopili fault located between Shillong Plateau and Mikir massif records a dextral slip of 4.7 ± 1.3 mm/year with a locking depth of 10.2 ± 1.4 km indicating the fragmentation of Assam Valley across the fault. Presently, western edge of Mikir massif appears to be locked to Assam block indicating strain accumulation in this region. First-order elastic dislocation modelling of the GPS velocities estimates a slip rate of 16 mm/year along the Main Himalayan Thrust in Eastern Himalaya which is locked over a width of 130 km from the surface to a depth of 17 km with underthrusting Indian plate. Around ~9 mm/year arc-normal convergence is accommodated in Lesser Himalaya just south of Main Central Thrust indicating high strain accumulation. Out of 36 mm/year (SSE) India-Sunda plate motion, about ~16 mm/year motion is accommodated in Indo-Burmese Fold and Thrust Belt, both as normal convergence (~6 mm/year) and active slip (~7-11 mm/year) in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of relative motion in a geodetic network in Ladakh, India, and across southern Tibet indicate slow shear on the Karakorum fault, rapid east-west extension across the whole of southern Tibet, and constant arc-normal convergence between India and southern Tibet along the Himalayan arc. Measurements of ten campaign-style and six permanent sites with global positioning system (GPS) precise geodesy provide these bounds on the style and rates of the large-scale deformation in the Tibet-Himalaya region. Divergence between sites at Leh, Ladakh, India, and Shiquanhe, western Tibet, as well as slow relative motion among sites within the Ladakh network, limit right-lateral slip parallel to the Karakorum fault to only 3.4 ± 5 mm/yr. This low rate concurs with a recent estimate of 3–4 mm/yr for Late Holocene time, but disagrees with the much higher rate of 30-35 mm/yr that has been used to argue for plate-like behavior of the Tibetan Plateau. Convergence between Ladakh and the Indian subcontinent at 18.8 ± 3 mm/yr at 224° ± 17° (1σ) differs little from estimates of convergence across the central segment of the Himalaya. Finally, lengthening of the baseline between Leh, Ladakh, and Lhasa (in southeastern Tibet) at 17.8 ± 1 mm/yr or between Leh and Bayi (farther to the southeast) at 18 ± 3 mm/yr, is consistent with an extrapolation of rates of east-west extension of the Tibetan Plateau based both on shorter GPS baselines (e.g., Lhasa-Simikot) and on diverging slip vectors of earthquakes in the Himalaya. We interpret these results to indicate that Tibet behaves more like a fluid than like a plate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]