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Objective To investigate the diagnostic performance of radiomics based on T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) of MRI for preoperative prediction of extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) in rectal cancer. Methods A total of 168 patients with pathology-confirmed rectal adenocarcinoma were enrolled during January 2010 to June 2023. The patients underwent preoperative rectal MRI scans, and they were randomly divided into training set and validation set at a 7∶3 ratio. Radiomic features from T2WI and DWI were extracted and selected by dimensionality reduction using the maximum relevance minimum redundancy (mRMR) method and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis with ten-fold cross-validation. The radiomic total score (Radscore) for each patient was calculated to make radiomics model. The training set enrolled three clinical features [gender, age and preoperative level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA)] and six magnetic resonance imaging features [ADC value, depth of infiltration, tumor length, tumor location, T staging and magnetic resonance imaging-defined extramural vascular invasion (mrEMVI)].The clinical model was established through univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis based on above clinical and imaging features， and the clinical-radiomics model (combined model) was established with Radscore and independent risk factors from the clinical model. The diagnostic efficacy of each model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The differences in performance among the models were compared using the DeLong test. The Calibration curves were employed to evaluate the consistence between the preoperative predictive results obtained from the nomogram and the postoperative pathological results. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate the clinical utility of the three models. Results The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve for the combined model, clinical model, and radiomics model in the training were 0.926, 0.888, 0.756, and were 0.917, 0.896, 0.782 in validation sets, respectively. The DeLong test showed that the diagnostic efficacy of combined model was higher than that of radiomics model in both training and validation sets (P

Abstract Background Identifying risk factors for adverse pathologic features in low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) can provide valuable insights into the necessity of surgical or non-surgical treatment. This study aims to develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of adverse pathologic features in low-risk PTMC patients. Methods A total of 662 patients with low-risk PTMC who underwent thyroid surgery were retrospectively analyzed in Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from May 2019 to December 2021. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for adverse pathologic features, and a nomogram was constructed based on these factors. Results Most PTMC patients with these adverse pathologic features had tumor diameters greater than 0.6 cm (p 0.05 each). The nomogram was drawn to provide a quantitative and convenient tool for predicting the risk of adverse pathologic features based on age, gender, family history of thyroid cancer, autoimmune thyroiditis, tumor size, and BRAF V600E mutation in low-risk PTMC patients. The areas under curves (AUC) were 0.645 (95% CI 0.580–0.702). Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the clinical benefits of this nomogram, presenting a high net benefit. Conclusion Tumor size > 0.60 cm was identified as an independent risk factor for adverse pathologic features in low-risk PTMC patients. The nomogram had a high predictive value and consistency based on these factors.

Background The lifespan of patients diagnosed with de novo metastatic breast cancer (dnMBC) has been prolonged. Nonetheless, there remains substantial debate regarding immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) for this particular subgroup of patients. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram predicting the breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of dnMBC patients who underwent IBR. Methods A total of 682 patients initially diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) between 2010 and 2018 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this study. All patients were randomly allocated into training and validation groups at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate Cox hazard regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and best subset regression (BSR) were used for initial variable selection, followed by a backward stepwise multivariate Cox regression to identify prognostic factors and construct a nomogram. Following the validation of the nomogram with concordance indexes (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs), risk stratifications were established. Results Age, marital status, T stage, N stage, breast subtype, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for BCSS. The C-indexes were 0.707 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.666–0.748] in the training group and 0.702 (95% CI, 0.639–0.765) in the validation group. In the training group, the AUCs for BCSS were 0.857 (95% CI, 0.770–0.943), 0.747 (95% CI, 0.689–0.804), and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.643–0.757) at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, respectively, while in the validation group, the AUCs were 0.840 (95% CI, 0.733–0.947), 0.763 (95% CI, 0.677–0.849), and 0.709 (95% CI, 0.623–0.795) for the same time points. The calibration curves for BCSS probability prediction demonstrated excellent consistency. The DCA curves exhibited strong discrimination power and yielded substantial net benefits. Conclusions The nomogram, constructed based on prognostic risk factors, has the ability to provide personalized predictions for BCSS in dnMBC patients undergoing IBR and serve as a valuable reference for clinical decision making.

Abstract Objective The aim of this study is to investigate the clinical characteristics of acute asthma exacerbations (AEs) with community‐acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults and establish a CAP prediction model for hospitalized patients with AEs. Methods We retrospectively collected clinical data from 308 patients admitted to Beijing Luhe Hospital, Capital Medical University, for AEs from December 2017 to August 2021. The patients were divided into CAP and non‐CAP groups based on whether they had CAP. We used the Lasso regression technique and multivariate logistic regression analysis to select optimal predictors. We then developed a predictive nomogram based on the optimal predictors. The bootstrap method was used for internal validation. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess the nomogram's discrimination, accuracy, and clinical practicability. Results The prevalence of CAP was 21% (65/308) among 308 patients hospitalized for AEs. Independent predictors of CAP in patients hospitalized with an AE (P 10 mg/L, fibrinogen > 4 g/L, leukocytes > 10 × 109/L, fever, use of systemic corticosteroids before admission, and early‐onset asthma. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.753–0.872). The concordance index of internal validation was 0.794. The calibration curve was satisfactorily consistent with the diagonal line. The DCA indicated that the nomogram provided a higher clinical net benefit when the threshold probability of patients was 3% to 89%. Conclusions The nomogram performed well in predicting the risk of CAP in hospitalized patients with AEs, thereby providing rapid guidance for clinical decision‐making.

Background: Currently, there is a lack of prognostic evaluation methods for non-serous epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Method: We collected patients with non-serous EOC diagnosed between 2010 and 2017 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database into a training cohort (n = 2078) and an internal validation cohort (n = 891). Meanwhile, patients meeting the criteria were screened from the Fujian Provincial Maternal and Child Health Hospital from 2013 to 2022 as an external validation cohort (n = 56). Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine the independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was validated by the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curves. Result: Age, laterality, preoperative CA125 status, histologic type, tumor grade, AJCC stage, surgery lesion, number of lymph nodes examined, residual lesion size, and bone metastasis were identified as independent prognostic factors to construct the nomogram. The nomogram showed better predictive ability than FIGO stage through internal and external cohorts validation. The C-index of the nomogram in the training cohort, validation cohort, and external validation cohort were 0.831, 0.835 and 0.944 higher than those of the Federation International of Gynecology and Obstetric (FIGO) stage, P

IntroductionGastric schwannoma is a rare benign tumor accounting for only 1–2% of alimentary tract mesenchymal tumors. Owing to their low incidence rate, most cases are misdiagnosed as gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), especially tumors with a diameter of less than 5 cm. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic nomogram based on computed tomography (CT) imaging features for the preoperative prediction of gastric schwannomas and GISTs (diameters = 2–5 cm).MethodsGastric schwannomas in 47 patients and GISTs in 230 patients were confirmed by surgical pathology. Thirty-four patients with gastric schwannomas and 167 with GISTs admitted between June 2009 and August 2022 at Hospital 1 were retrospectively analyzed as the test and training sets, respectively. Seventy-six patients (13 with gastric schwannomas and 63 with GISTs) were included in the external validation set (June 2017 to September 2022 at Hospital 2). The independent factors for differentiating gastric schwannomas from GISTs were obtained by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a corresponding nomogram model was established. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves.ResultsLogistic regression analysis showed that the growth pattern (odds ratio [OR] 3.626; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.105–11.900), absence of necrosis (OR 4.752; 95% CI 1.464–15.424), presence of tumor-associated lymph nodes (OR 23.978; 95% CI 6.499–88.466), the difference between CT values during the portal and arterial phases (OR 1.117; 95% CI 1.042–1.198), and the difference between CT values during the delayed and portal phases (OR 1.159; 95% CI 1.080–1.245) were independent factors in differentiating gastric schwannoma from GIST. The resulting individualized prediction nomogram showed good discrimination in the training (area under the curve [AUC], 0.937; 95% CI, 0.900–0.973) and validation (AUC, 0.921; 95% CI, 0.830–1.000) datasets. The calibration curve showed that the probability of gastric schwannomas predicted using the nomogram agreed well with the actual value.ConclusionThe proposed nomogram model based on CT imaging features can be used to differentiate gastric schwannoma from GIST before surgery.

ObjectivesTo explore the preoperative high-risk clinical factors for contralateral medium-volume central lymph node metastasis (conMVCLNM) in unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma (uPTC) and the indications for dissection of contralateral central lymph nodes (conCLN).MethodsClinical and pathological data of 204 uPTC patients who underwent thyroid surgery at the Hangzhou First People’s Hospital from September 2010 to October 2022 were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the independent risk factors for contralateral central lymph node metastasis (conCLNM) and conMVCLNM in uPTC patients based on the preoperative clinical data. Predictive models for conCLNM and conMVCLNM were constructed using logistic regression analyses and validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsUnivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that gender (P < 0.001), age (P < 0.001), tumor diameter (P < 0.001), and multifocality (P = 0.008) were independent risk factors for conCLNM in uPTC patients. Gender(P= 0.026), age (P = 0.010), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (P =0.003), and tumor diameter (P = 0.036) were independent risk factors for conMVCLNM in uPTC patients. A predictive model was established to assess the risk of conCLNM and conMVCLNM, with ROC curve areas of 0.836 and 0.845, respectively. The C-index, the calibration curve, and DCA demonstrated that the model had good diagnostic value.ConclusionGender, age, tumor diameter, and multifocality are high-risk factors for conCLNM in uPTC patients. Gender, age, tumor diameter, and PLR are high-risk factors for conMVCLNM in uPTC patients, and preventive conCLN dissection should be performed.

Abstract Background A high mortality rate has always been observed in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU); however, there are few reported predictive models regarding the prognosis of this group of patients. This study aimed to screen for risk factors and assign a useful nomogram to predict mortality in these patients. Methods As a developmental cohort, we used 455 patients with SCAP admitted to ICU. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for death. A mortality prediction model was built based on statistically significant risk factors. Furthermore, the model was visualized using a nomogram. As a validation cohort, we used 88 patients with SCAP admitted to ICU of another hospital. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curve analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Lymphocytes, PaO2/FiO2, shock, and APACHE II score were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in the development cohort. External validation results showed a C-index of 0.903 (95% CI 0.838–0.968). The AUC of model for the development cohort was 0.85, which was better than APACHE II score 0.795 and SOFA score 0.69. The AUC for the validation cohort was 0.893, which was better than APACHE II score 0.746 and SOFA score 0.742. Calibration curves for both cohorts showed agreement between predicted and actual probabilities. The results of the DCA curves for both cohorts indicated that the model had a high clinical application in comparison to APACHE II and SOFA scoring systems. Conclusions We developed a predictive model based on lymphocytes, PaO2/FiO2, shock, and APACHE II scores to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with SCAP admitted to the ICU. The model has the potential to help physicians assess the prognosis of this group of patients.

Abstract Objective This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of computed tomography (CT) texture features in the treatment response of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) receiving palliative chemotherapy. Methods This study enrolled 84 patients with APC treated with first-line chemotherapy and conducted texture analysis on primary pancreatic tumors. 59 patients and 25 were randomly assigned to the training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The treatment response to chemotherapy was evaluated according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST1.1). The patients were divided into progressive and non-progressive groups. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) was applied for feature selection in the training cohort and a radiomics signature (RS) was calculated. A nomogram was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model incorporating the RS and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), and was internally validated using the C-index and calibration plot. We performed the decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve analysis to reflect the clinical utility of the nomogram. The nomogram was further externally confirmed in the validation cohort. Results The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the RS and CA19-9 were independent predictors (P

The aim of this study was to identify the high-risk factors for caesarean scar pregnancy (CSP) and establish a nomogram to predict the risk of caesarean scar pregnancy in pregnant women with a history of caesarean section. Among 1273 pregnant women with a history of caesarean section, 70% of the patients (892 patients, training sample) were randomly selected for analysis, and a prediction model was generated. The remaining patients (381 patients, validation sample) were validated for the model. Four high-risk factors for CSP were established, including: parity, number of previous abortions, uterus position, and early vaginal bleeding. The area under the curve of the nomogram for the training set was 0.867 and that for the validation set was 0.881, indicating good performance. Calibration curves for predicting CSP showed good calibrations. Decision curve analyses showed good application prospects for the model. Our results show that our nomogram for predicting CSP risks can be a practical tool to help in the early identification of CSP.Impact Statement What is already known on this subject? The high-risk factors for "caesarean scar pregnancy", An simple nomogram could be constructed to predict the risk of the disease through these high-risk factors. What do the results of this study add? This study can quickly predict whether the patient is a high-risk group for uterine scar pregnancy based on the patient’s previous pregnancy, early vaginal bleeding and uterine position. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Caesarean scar pregnancy was secondary Long-term complications after caesarean section that with a high risk of pregnancy. In this study, we established a nomogram based on the number of cases of CSP and a control group with a history of caesarean section delivery at term, The high-risk factors were assigned a certain risk value in the early stage, if the woman contains more high-risk factors, the higher the risk of developing CSP, it should be highly valued in the early stage, and the rate of visiting a doctor should be increased.

AbstractObjective To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after receiving high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatment.Methods A total of 52 patients with PDAC were enrolled. To select features, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm were applied, and the radiomics score (Rad-Score) was obtained. Radiomics model, clinics model, and radiomics nomogram model were constructed by multivariate regression analysis. The identification, calibration, and clinical application of nomogram were evaluated. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier (K–M) method.Results According to conclusions made from the multivariate Cox model, Rad-Score, and tumor size were independent risk factors for OS. Compared with the clinical model and radiomics model, the combination of Rad-Score and clinicopathological factors could better predict the survival of patients. Patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to Rad-Score. K–M analysis showed that the difference between the two groups was statistically significant (p

Abstract Background This study aimed to establish an effective ultrasound diagnostic nomogram for benign or malignant lymph nodes in HIV-infected patients. Methods The nomogram is based on a retrospective study of 131 HIV-infected patients who underwent ultrasound assess at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center from December 2017 to July 2022. The nomogram’s predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve analysis. A nomogram combining the lymph node US characteristics were generated based on the multivariate logistic regression results. Results Predictors contained in the ultrasound diagnostic nomogram included age (OR 1.044 95%CI: 1.014–1.074 P = 0.004), number of enlarged lymph node regions (OR 5.445 95%CI: 1.139–26.029 P = 0.034), and color Doppler flow imaging (CDFI) grades (OR 9.614 95%CI: 1.889–48.930 P = 0.006). The model displayed good discrimination with a C (ROC) of 0.775 and good calibration. Conclusions The proposed nomogram may result in more-accurate diagnostic predictions for benign or malignant lymph nodes in patients with HIV infection.

Abstract Background Gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) is a highly fatal form of cancer in humans. The aim of this study was to extract clinicopathological data of postoperative patients with GCA from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, analyze prognostic risk factors, and build a nomogram. Methods In this study, the clinical information of 1448 patients with GCA who underwent radical surgery and were diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 was extracted from the SEER database. The patients were then randomly divided into training (n = 1013) and internal validation (n = 435) cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. The study also included an external validation cohort (n = 218) from a Chinese hospital. The study used the Cox and LASSO models to pinpoint the independent risk factors linked to GCA. The prognostic model was constructed according to the results of the multivariate regression analysis. To assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram, four methods were used: C‐index, calibration curve, time‐dependent ROC curve, and DCA curve. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were also generated to illustrate the differences in cancer‐specific survival (CSS) between the groups. Results The results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, grade, race, marital status, T stage, and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) were independently associated with cancer‐specific survival in the training cohort. Both the C‐index and AUC values depicted in the nomogram were greater than 0.71. The calibration curve revealed that the nomogram's CSS prediction was consistent with the actual outcomes. The decision curve analysis suggested moderately positive net benefits. Based on the nomogram risk score, significant differences in survival between the high‐ and low‐risk groups were observed. Conclusions Race, age, marital status, differentiation grade, T stage, and LODDS are independent predictors of CSS in patients with GCA after radical surgery. Our predictive nomogram constructed based on these variables demonstrated good predictive ability.

Abstract Background Length of stay (LOS) is an important metric for evaluating the management of inpatients. This study aimed to explore the factors impacting the LOS of inpatients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and develop a predictive model for the early identification of inpatients with prolonged LOS. Methods A 13-year multicenter retrospective study was conducted on 83,776 patients with T2DM to develop and validate a clinical predictive tool for prolonged LOS. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model and multivariable logistic regression analysis were adopted to build the risk model for prolonged LOS, and a nomogram was taken to visualize the model. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves were used to respectively validate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability of the model. Results The result showed that age, cerebral infarction, antihypertensive drug use, antiplatelet and anticoagulant use, past surgical history, past medical history, smoking, drinking, and neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio were closely related to the prolonged LOS. Area under the curve values of the nomogram in the training, internal validation, external validation set 1, and external validation set 2 were 0.803 (95% CI [confidence interval] 0.799–0.808), 0.794 (95% CI 0.788–0.800), 0.754 (95% CI 0.739–0.770), and 0.743 (95% CI 0.722–0.763), respectively. The calibration curves indicated that the nomogram had a strong calibration. Besides, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves exhibited that the nomogram had favorable clinical practical value. Besides, an online interface ( https://cytjt007.shinyapps.io/prolonged_los/ ) was developed to provide convenient access for users. Conclusion In sum, the proposed model could predict the possible prolonged LOS of inpatients with T2DM and help the clinicians to improve efficiency in bed management.

PurposeTo establish and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting recurrence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after esophagectomy with curative intent.Materials and methodsThe medical records of 155 patients who underwent surgical treatment for pathologically confirmed ESCC were collected. Patients were randomly divided into a training group (n=109) and a validation group (n=46) in a 7:3 ratio. ​Tumor regions are accurately segmented in computed tomography images of enrolled patients. Radiomic features were then extracted from the segmented tumors. We selected the features by Max-relevance and min-redundancy (mRMR) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods. A radiomics signature was then built by logistic regression analysis. To improve predictive performance, a radiomics nomogram that incorporated the radiomics signature and independent clinical predictors was built. Model performance was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses (DCA).ResultsWe selected the five most relevant radiomics features to construct the radiomics signature. The radiomics model had general discrimination ability with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.79 in the training set that was verified by an AUC of 0.76 in the validation set. The radiomics nomogram consisted of the radiomics signature, and N stage showed excellent predictive performance in the training and validation sets with AUCs of 0.85 and 0.83, respectively. Furthermore, calibration curves and the DCA analysis demonstrated good fit and clinical utility of the radiomics nomogram.ConclusionWe successfully established and validated a prediction model that combined radiomics features and N stage, which can be used to predict four-year recurrence risk in patients with ESCC who undergo surgery.

ObjectiveTo assess the prognostic value of a model based on pre-treatment T2WI-based radiomic features and postoperative pathological staging in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.MethodsRadiomic features were derived from T2WI, and a radiomic signature (RS) was established and validated for the prediction of distant metastases (DM). Subsequently, we designed and validated a nomogram model that combined the radiomic signature and postoperative pathological staging for enhanced DM prediction. Performance measures such as the concordance index (C-index) and area under the curve (AUC) were computed to assess the predictive accuracy of the models.ResultsA total of 260 patients participated in this study, of whom 197 (75.8%) were male, and the mean age was 57.2 years with a standard deviation of 11.2 years. 15 radiomic features were selected to define the radiomic signature. Patients with a high-risk radiomic signature demonstrated significantly shorter distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in both the development and validation cohorts. A nomogram, incorporating the radiomic signature, pathological T stage, and N stage, achieved an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.83) in the development cohort and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.73-0.92) in the validation cohort.ConclusionA radiomic signature derived from T2WI-based radiomic features can effectively distinguish patients with varying risks of DM. Furthermore, a nomogram integrating the radiomic signature and postoperative pathological stage proves to be a robust predictor of DMFS.

BackgroundLimited studies have observed the prognostic value of CT images for esophageal neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) due to rare incidence and low treatment experience in clinical. In this study, the pretreatment enhanced CT texture features and clinical characteristics were investigated to predict the overall survival of esophageal NEC.MethodsThis retrospective study included 89 patients with esophageal NEC. The training and testing cohorts comprised 61 (70%) and 28 (30%) patients, respectively. A total of 402 radiomics features were extracted from the tumor region that segmented pretreatment venous phase CT images. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression was applied to feature dimension reduction, feature selection, and radiomics signature construction. A radiomics nomogram was constructed based on the radiomics signature and clinical risk factors using a multivariable Cox proportional regression. The performance of the nomogram for the pretreatment prediction of overall survival (OS) was evaluated for discrimination and calibration.ResultsOnly the enhancement degree was an independent factor in clinical variable influenced OS. The radiomics signatures demonstrated good predictability for prognostic status discrimination. The radiomics nomogram integrating texture signatures was slightly superior to the nomogram derived from the combined model with a C-index of 0.844 (95%CI: 0.783-0.905) and 0.847 (95% CI: 0.782-0.912) in the training set, and 0.805 (95%CI: 0.707-0.903) and 0.745 (95% CI: 0.639-0.851) in the testing set, respectively.ConclusionThe radiomics nomogram based on pretreatment CT radiomics signature had better prognostic power and predictability of the overall survival in patients with esophageal NEC than the model using combined variables.

BackgroundElderly cancer patients are more predisposed to developing nosocomial infections during anti-neoplastic treatment, and are associated with a bleaker prognosis. This study aimed to develop a novel risk classifier to predict the in-hospital death risk of nosocomial infections in this population.MethodsRetrospective clinical data were collected from a National Cancer Regional Center in Northwest China. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm was utilized to filter the optimal variables for model development and avoid model overfitting. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent predictors of the in-hospital death risk. A nomogram was then developed to predict the in-hospital death risk of each participant. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsA total of 569 elderly cancer patients were included in this study, and the estimated in-hospital mortality rate was 13.9%. The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that ECOG-PS (odds ratio [OR]: 4.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.95-9.99), surgery type (OR: 0.18, 95%CI: 0.04-0.85), septic shock (OR: 5.92, 95%CI: 2.43-14.44), length of antibiotics treatment (OR: 0.21, 95%CI: 0.09-0.50), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) (OR: 0.14, 95%CI: 0.06-0.33) were independent predictors of the in-hospital death risk of nosocomial infections in elderly cancer patients. A nomogram was then constructed to achieve personalized in-hospital death risk prediction. ROC curves yield excellent discrimination ability in the training (area under the curve [AUC]=0.882) and validation (AUC=0.825) cohorts. Additionally, the nomogram showed good calibration ability and net clinical benefit in both cohorts.ConclusionNosocomial infections are a common and potentially fatal complication in elderly cancer patients. Clinical characteristics and infection types can vary among different age groups. The risk classifier developed in this study could accurately predict the in-hospital death risk for these patients, providing an important tool for personalized risk assessment and clinical decision-making.

Abstract Background Undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (UPS) is considered one of the most common types of soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Current studies have shown that the prognosis of UPS is related to some of its clinical characteristics, but no survival prediction model for the overall survival (OS) of UPS patients has been reported. The purpose of this study is to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting OS in UPS patients at 3, 5 years after the diagnosis. Methods According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 1079 patients with UPS were screened from the SEER database and randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 755) and the validation cohort (n = 324). Patient demographic and clinicopathological characteristics were first described, and the correlation between the two groups was compared, using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression analysis to determine independent prognostic factors. Based on the identified independent prognostic factors, a nomogram for OS in UPS patients was established using R language. The nomogram’s performance was then validated using multiple indicators, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Both the C-index of the OS nomogram in the training cohort and the validation cohort were greater than 0 .75, and both the values of AUC were greater than 0.78. These four values were higher than their corresponding values in the TNM staging system, respectively. The calibration curves of the Nomogram prediction model and the TNM staging system were well fitted with the 45° line. Decision curve analysis showed that both the nomogram model and the TNM staging system had clinical net benefits over a wide range of threshold probabilities, and the nomogram had higher clinical net benefits than the TNM staging system as a whole. Conclusion With good discrimination, accuracy, and clinical practicability, the nomogram can individualize the prediction of 3-year and 5-year OS in patients with UPS, which can provide a reference for clinicians and patients to make better clinical decisions.

BackgroundPrevious studies indicated the evidence that baseline levels of thyroid antibodies, thyroid status, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and M stage may influence the prognosis of patients with advanced or metastatic melanoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors that targets programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) or programmed death ligand 1, which reported that dramatic improvements in survival rates were observed; however, the presence of controversy has prevented consensus from being reached. Study objectives were to develop a nomogram to identify several prognostic factors in Chinese patients with metastatic melanoma receiving immunotherapy.MethodsThis retrospective study included 231 patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, and patients were split into internal cohort (n = 165) and external validation cohort (n = 66). We developed a nomogram for the prediction of response and prognosis on the basis of the levels of serum thyroid peroxidase antibody (A-TPO), free T3 (FT3), and LDH and M stage that were measured at the baseline of anti–PD-1 infusion. In addition, the follow-up lasted at least until 5 years after the treatment or mortality. RECIST v1.1 was used to classify treatment responses.ResultsChi-square test showed that PD-1 antibody was more effective in patients with melanoma with high level baseline FT4 or earlier M stage. A multivariate Cox analysis showed that baseline FT3 (P = 0.009), baseline A-TPO (P = 0.016), and LDH (P = 0.013) levels and M stage (P < 0.001) independently predicted overall survival (OS) in patients with melanoma. The above factors are integrated, and a prediction model is established, i.e., nomogram. Survival probability area-under-the-curve values of 1, 2, and 3 years in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts showed the prognostic accuracy and clinical applicability of nomogram (training: 0.714, 0.757, and 0.764; internal validation: 0.7171963, 0.756549, and 0.7651486; external validation: 0.748, 0.710, and 0.856). In addition, the OS of low-risk (total score ≤ 142.65) versus high-risk (total score > 142.65) patients varied significantly in both training group (P < 0.0001) and external validation cohort (P = 0.0012).ConclusionsAccording to this study, baseline biomarkers are associated with response to immunotherapy and prognosis among patients with metastatic melanoma. Treatment regimens can be tailor-made on the basis of these biomarkers.

IntroductionPostoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is common in surgical patients especially in older patients, and the geriatric population with SIRS is more susceptible to sepsis, MODS, and even death. We aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting postoperative SIRS in older patients.MethodsPatients aged ≥65 years who underwent general anesthesia in two centers of Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2015 to September 2020 were included. The cohort was divided into training and validation cohorts. A simple nomogram was developed to predict the postoperative SIRS in the training cohort using two logistic regression models and the brute force algorithm. The discriminative performance of this model was determined by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). The external validity of the nomogram was assessed in the validation cohort.ResultsA total of 5,904 patients spanning from January 2015 to December 2019 were enrolled in the training cohort and 1,105 patients from January 2020 to September 2020 comprised the temporal validation cohort, in which incidence rates of postoperative SIRS were 24.6 and 20.2%, respectively. Six feature variables were identified as valuable predictors to construct the nomogram, with high AUCs (0.800 [0.787, 0.813] and 0.822 [0.790, 0.854]) and relatively balanced sensitivity (0.718 and 0.739) as well as specificity (0.718 and 0.729) in both training and validation cohorts. An online risk calculator was established for clinical application.ConclusionWe developed a patient-specific model that may assist in predicting postoperative SIRS among the aged patients.

BackgroundTumor grade is associated with the treatment and prognosis of endometrial cancer (EC). The accurate preoperative prediction of the tumor grade is essential for EC risk stratification. Herein, we aimed to assess the performance of a multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiomics nomogram for predicting high-grade EC.MethodsOne hundred and forty-three patients with EC who had undergone preoperative pelvic MRI were retrospectively enrolled and divided into a training set (n =100) and a validation set (n =43). Radiomic features were extracted based on T2-weighted, diffusion-weighted, and dynamic contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images. The minimum absolute contraction selection operator (LASSO) was implemented to obtain optimal radiomics features and build the rad-score. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the clinical MRI features and build a clinical model. We developed a radiomics nomogram by combining important clinical MRI features and rad-score. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of the three models. The clinical net benefit of the nomogram was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI).ResultsIn total, 35/143 patients had high-grade EC and 108 had low-grade EC. The areas under the ROC curves of the clinical model, rad-score, and radiomics nomogram were 0.837 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.754–0.920), 0.875 (95% CI: 0.797–0.952), and 0.923 (95% CI: 0.869–0.977) for the training set; 0.857 (95% CI: 0.741–0.973), 0.785 (95% CI: 0.592–0.979), and 0.914 (95% CI: 0.827–0.996) for the validation set, respectively. The radiomics nomogram showed a good net benefit according to the DCA. NRIs were 0.637 (0.214–1.061) and 0.657 (0.079–1.394), and IDIs were 0.115 (0.077–0.306) and 0.053 (0.027–0.357) in the training set and validation set, respectively.ConclusionThe radiomics nomogram based on multiparametric MRI can predict the tumor grade of EC before surgery and yield a higher performance than that of dilation and curettage.

ObjectiveBy identifying the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic influences of patients with triple-positive breast cancer (TPBC) at Xijing Hospital in China compared with those in the United States, this study aims to construct a nomogram model to forecast the overall survival rate (OS) of TPBC patients.MethodThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to screen 5769 patients as the training cohort, and 191 patients from Xijing Hospital were used as the validation cohort. Cox risk-proportional model was applied to select variables and the nomogram model was constructed based on the training cohort. The performance of the model was evaluated by calculating the C-index and generating calibration plots in the training and validation cohorts.ResultsCox multifactorial analysis showed that age, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, M-stage, T-stage, N-stage, and the mode of surgery were all independent risk factors for the prognosis of TPBC patients (all P

The aim of this research was to develop a quantitative method for clinicians to predict the probability of improved prognosis in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Data on 104 patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection from 10 January 2020 to 26 February 2020 were collected. Clinical information and laboratory findings were collected and compared between the outcomes of improved patients and non-improved patients. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistics regression model and two-way stepwise strategy in the multivariate logistics regression model were used to select prognostic factors for predicting clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the discrimination of the model, and internal validation was performed through bootstrap resampling. A novel predictive nomogram was constructed by incorporating these features. Of the 104 patients included in the study (median age 55 years), 75 (72.1%) had improved short-term outcomes, while 29 (27.9%) showed no signs of improvement. There were numerous differences in clinical characteristics and laboratory findings between patients with improved outcomes and patients without improved outcomes. After a multi-step screening process, prognostic factors were selected and incorporated into the nomogram construction, including immunoglobulin A (IgA), C-reactive protein (CRP), creatine kinase (CK), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and interaction between CK and APACHE II. The C-index of our model was 0.962 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.931–0.993) and still reached a high value of 0.948 through bootstrapping validation. A predictive nomogram we further established showed close performance compared with the ideal model on the calibration plot and was clinically practical according to the decision curve and clinical impact curve. The nomogram we constructed is useful for clinicians to predict improved clinical outcome probability for each COVID-19 patient, which may facilitate personalized counselling and treatment.

Background: The overall survival (OS) for patients with recurrent glioma is meager. Also, the effect of radionecrosis and prognostic factors for recurrent glioma remains controversial. In this regard, developing effective predictive models and guiding clinical care is crucial for these patients. Methods: We screened patients with recurrent glioma after radiotherapy and those who received surgery between August 1, 2013, and December 31, 2020. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses determined the independent prognostic factors affecting the prognosis of recurrent glioma. Moreover, nomograms were constructed to predict recurrent glioma risk and prognosis. Statistical methods were used to determine the prediction accuracy and discriminability of the nomogram prediction model based on the area under the curve (AUC), the C-index, the decision curve analysis (DCA), and the calibration curve. In order to distinguish high-risk and low-risk groups for OS, the X-Tile and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves were employed, and the nomogram prediction model was further validated by the X-Tile and K-M survival curves. Results: According to a Cox regression analysis, independent prognostic factors of recurrent glioma after radiotherapy with radionecrosis were World Health Organization (WHO) grade and gliosis percentage. We utilized a nomogram prediction model to analyze results visually. The C-index was 0.682 (95% CI: 0.616–0.748). According to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration plots, and DCA, the nomogram prediction model was found to have a high-performance ability, and all patients were divided into low-risk and high-risk groups based on OS (P <.001). Conclusion: WHO grade and gliosis percentage are prognostic factors for recurrent glioma with radionecrosis, and a nomogram prediction model was established based on these two variables. Patients could be divided into high- and low-risk groups with different OS by this model, and it will provide individualized clinical decisions for future treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to develop and validate a computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics nomogram for pre-operatively predicting central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) and explore the underlying biological basis by using RNA sequencing data. This study trained 452 PTMC patients across two hospitals from January 2012 to December 2020. The sets were randomly divided into the training (n = 339), internal test (n = 86), external test (n = 27) sets. Radiomics features were extracted from primary lesion's pre-operative CT images for each patient. After screening for features, five algorithms such as K-nearest neighbor, logistics regression, linear-support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian SVM, and polynomial SVM were used to establish the radiomics models. The performance of these five algorithms was evaluated and compared directly to radiologist's interpretation (CT-reported lymph node status). The radiomics signature score (Rad-score) was generated using a linear combination of the selected features. By combining the clinical risk factors and Rad score, a radiomics nomogram was established and compared with Rad-score and clinical model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). The potential biological basis of nomogram was revealed by performing genetic analysis based on the RNA sequencing data. A total of 25 radiomic features were ultimately selected to train the machine learning models, and the five machine learning models outperformed the radiologists' interpretation by achieving area under the ROC curves (AUCs) ranging from 0.606 to 0.730 in the internal test set. By incorporating the Rad score and clinical risk factors (sex, age, tumor-diameter, and CT-reported lymph node status), this nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.800 and 0.803 in the internal and external test set, which were higher than that of the Rad-score and clinical model, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA also showed that the nomogram had good performance. As for the biological basis exploration, in patients predicted by nomogram to be PTC patients with CLMN, 109 genes were dysregulated, and some of them were associated with pathways and biological processes such as tumor angiogenesis. This radiomics nomogram successfully identified CLNM on pretreatment imaging across multiple institutions, exceeding the diagnostic ability of radiologists and had the potential to be integrated into clinical decision making as a non-invasive pre-operative tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Ribosomal RNA N6-methyltransferase METTL5 was reported to catalyze m6A in 18S rRNA. We aimed to investigate the expression and prognostic features of METTL5 in gastric cancer (GC). Methods In this study, 168 GC patients and their corresponding adjacent tissues were collected. Immunohistochemical staining was used to detect the expression of METTL5 protein. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were used to dertermine the prognostic role of METTL5 protein in GC, and a nomogram was constructed to evaluate GC patients’ prognosis based on METTL5 expression. Data from TCGA and GEO database were also used to validate the prognostic value of METTL5 in GC patients on mRNA level. We further performed GSEA enrichment analysis to explore the possible function and related pathways related to METTL5. Results METTL5 protein in gastric cancer tissues (GCTs) was significantly decreased compared with adjacent normal tissues (ANTs) and adjacent intestinal metaplasia tissues (AIMTs) (P

BackgroundThis study aimed to develop reliable nomogram-based predictive models that could guide prognostic stratification and individualized treatments in patients with multiple myeloma (MM).MethodsClinical information of 560 patients was extracted from the MM dataset of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project. The patients were divided into a development cohort (n = 350) and an internal validation cohort (n = 210) according to the therapeutic regimens received. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors for nomogram construction. Nomogram performance was assessed using concordance indices, the area under the curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. The nomograms were also validated in an external cohort of 56 patients newly diagnosed with MM at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from May 2016 to June 2019.ResultsLactate dehydrogenase (LDH), albumin, and cytogenetic abnormalities were incorporated into the nomogram to predict overall survival (OS), whereas LDH, β2-microglobulin, and cytogenetic abnormalities were incorporated into the nomogram to predict event-free survival (EFS). The nomograms showed good predictive performances in the development, internal validation, and external validation cohorts. Additionally, we observed a superior prognostic predictive ability in nomograms compared to that of the International Staging System. According to the prognostic nomograms, risk stratification was applied to divide the patients into two risk groups. The OS and EFS rates of low-risk patients were significantly better than those of high-risk patients, suggesting a greater function of the nomogram models for risk stratification.ConclusionTwo simple-to-use prognostic models were established and validated. The proposed nomograms have potential clinical applications in predicting OS and EFS for patients with MM.

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a highly lethal cancer and is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Unlike apoptosis, necroptosis (NCPS) triggers an immune response by releasing damage-related molecular factors. However, the clinical prognostic features of necroptosis-associated genes in HCC are still not fully explored.Methods: We analyzed the single-cell datasets GSE125449 and GSE151530 from the GEO database and performed weighted co-expression network analysis on the TCGA data to identify the necroptosis genes. A prognostic model was built using COX and Lasso regression. In addition, we performed an analysis of survival, immunity microenvironment, and mutation. Furthermore, the hub genes and pathways associated with HCC were localized within the single-cell atlas.Results: Patients with HCC in the TCGA and ICGC cohorts were classified using a necroptosis-related model with significant differences in survival times between high- and low-NCPS groups (p < 0.05). High-NCPS patients expressed more immune checkpoint-related genes, suggesting immunotherapy and some chemotherapies might prove beneficial to them. In addition, a single-cell sequencing approach was conducted to investigate the expression of hub genes and associated signaling pathways in different cell types.Conclusion: Through the analysis of single-cell and bulk multi-omics sequencing data, we constructed a prognostic model related to necroptosis and explored the relationship between high- and low-NCPS groups and immune cell infiltration in HCC. This provides a new reference for further understanding the role of necroptosis in HCC.

BackgroundPost-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) after lacunar infarction was worth attention in recent years. An easy-to-use score model to predict the risk of PSCI was rare. This study aimed to explore the association between serum amyloid A (SAA) and cognitive impairment, and it also developed a nomogram for predicting the risk of PSCI in lacunar infarction patients.MethodsA total of 313 patients with lacunar infarction were enrolled in this retrospective study between January 2021 and December 2021. They were divided into a training set and a validation set at 70%:30% randomly. The Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was performed to identify cognitive impairment 3 months after discharge. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the independent risk factors for PSCI in the training set. A nomogram was developed based on the five variables, and the calibration curve and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were drawn to assess the predictive ability of the nomogram between the training set and the validation set. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was also conducted in both sets.ResultsIn total, 52/313 (16.61%) participants were identified with PSCI. The SAA levels in patients with PSCI were significantly higher than non-PSCI patients in the training set (P < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, age, diabetes mellitus, white blood count, cystatin C, and SAA were independent risk predictors of PSCI. The nomogram demonstrated a good discrimination performance between the training set (AUC = 0.860) and the validation set (AUC = 0.811). The DCA showed that the nomogram had a well clinical utility in the two sets.ConclusionThe increased SAA is associated with PSCI in lacunar infarction patients, and the nomogram developed with SAA can increase prognostic information for the early detection of PSCI.

Background and aimsEarly detection of mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is crucial, whereas most risk prediction models are based on outdated cohorts before the year 2000. This study aimed to establish a nomogram predicting 30-day mortality after PCI.Materials and methodsIn total, 10,444 patients undergoing PCI in National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases in China were enrolled to establish a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality after PCI. The nomogram was generated by incorporating parameters selected by logistic regression with the stepwise backward method.ResultsFive features were selected to build the nomogram, including age, male sex, cardiac dysfunction, STEMI, and TIMI 0–2 after PCI. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated, and the area under the curves (AUC) was 0.881 (95% CI: 0.8–0.961). Our nomogram exhibited better performance than a previous risk model (AUC = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.586–0.813) established by Brener et al. The survival curve successfully stratified the patients above and below the median score of 4.ConclusionA novel nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality was established in unselected patients undergoing PCI, which may help risk stratification in clinical practice.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to comprehensively investigate the relationship between the survival differences and socioeconomic status (SES) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) and construct a predictive nomogram to assess clinical outcomes of MM patients.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) census tract-level SES database provides two specialized attributes: SES index and rurality. Using this database, 37,819 patients diagnosed with MM between January 2007 and December 2016 were enrolled. We evaluated the effects of SES index on overall survival (OS) and myeloma-specific survival (MSS) using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analyses. Thereafter, we included 126 patients with MM from two independent medical centers in China and divided them into training (Center 1) and validation (Center 2) cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used in the training cohort to construct a nomogram for predicting clinical outcomes. Nomogram performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curves.ResultsIn the SEER cohort, lower SES was significantly associated with worse OS rates and MSS rates (both P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed SES as an independent predictor of survival. Subgroup analysis indicated an increasing linear trend in survival benefits in non-Hispanic White, married, insured, and urban populations with increasing SES (all P < 0.001). In the training cohort, albumin, creatinine, rurality, and SES were confirmed as independent prognostic indicators. A nomogram for OS prediction was developed using these four factors, and it showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration. The 18- and 36-month AUC values of the nomogram were 0.79 and 0.82, respectively. Based on the total nomogram points, patients were categorized into two risk levels with good separation.ConclusionSES strongly influences survival disparities in patients with MM. Our nomogram consisting of clinical and sociodemographic characteristics can potentially predict survival outcomes.