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Betting on the various codes of football in Australia accounts for the majority of sports betting, with Australian rules football (AFL) by far the most popular sport in Australia. Several studies have revealed the heavy presence of gambling advertising during AFL broadcasts, and a frequently used advertising strategy involves the use of well-known AFL commentators outlining their tips and betting suggestions. To date, no research has examined the hypotheses that skill may help in predicting AFL matches and monetary outcomes from AFL betting. Rather than merely discounting such ideas, it is important to test them empirically. The aims of this study were therefore, to examine if (1) expert AFL tipsters made better predictions than random picks, (2) expert AFL tipsters gained greater monetary reward than random selection, and (3) expert tipsters' prediction accuracy improved with betting experience. To this end, six seasons of AFL matches, odds data, and expert tipster data were analysed retrospectively, totalling 1141 matches. Random selections were calculated for each match using an inbuilt random number generator within Microsoft Excel and a $2 simulated wager was applied for each AFL match. The results of mixed-effects modelling showed that experts picked more correct outcomes than random selection; experts' correct predictions were partially mediated by home-game selections; no difference in monetary outcome was observed for experts compared to random selection; experts' predictions did not improve over time. The results of this study may be used to inform both psychological interventions that target gamblers' illusions of control, and public health gambling harm prevention messaging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Fractal analysis can quantify the geometric complexity of the retinal vascular branching pattern and may therefore offer a new method to quantify early diabetic microvascular damage. In this study, we examined the relationship between retinal fractal dimension and retinopathy in young individuals with type 1 diabetes., Research Design and Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 729 patients with type 1 diabetes (aged 12-20 years) who had seven-field stereoscopic retinal photographs taken of both eyes. From these photographs, retinopathy was graded according to the modified Airlie House classification, and fractal dimension was quantified using a computer-based program following a standardized protocol., Results: In this study, 137 patients (18.8%) had diabetic retinopathy signs; of these, 105 had mild retinopathy. Median (interquartile range) retinal fractal dimension was 1.46214 (1.45023-1.47217). After adjustment for age, sex, diabetes duration, A1C, blood pressure, and total cholesterol, increasing retinal vascular fractal dimension was significantly associated with increasing odds of retinopathy (odds ratio 3.92 [95% CI 2.02-7.61] for fourth versus first quartile of fractal dimension). In multivariate analysis, each 0.01 increase in retinal vascular fractal dimension was associated with a nearly 40% increased odds of retinopathy (1.37 [1.21-1.56]). This association remained after additional adjustment for retinal vascular caliber., Conclusions: Greater retinal fractal dimension, representing increased geometric complexity of the retinal vasculature, is independently associated with early diabetic retinopathy signs in type 1 diabetes. Fractal analysis of fundus photographs may allow quantitative measurement of early diabetic microvascular damage.