Search

Accurate estimation of missing traffic data is one of the essential components in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). The non-Euclidean data structure and complex missing traffic flow patterns make it challenging to capture nonlinear spatiotemporal correlations of missing traffic flow, which are critical for the imputation of missing traffic data. In this study, we propose a novel multi-view bidirectional spatiotemporal graph network called Multi-BiSTGN to impute urban traffic data with complex missing patterns. First, three spatiotemporal graph sequences are constructed to comprehensively describe traffic conditions from different temporal correlation views, i.e. temporal closeness view, daily periodicity view, and weekly periodicity view. Then, three bidirectional spatiotemporal graph networks are fused by a parametric-matrix-based method to obtain the final imputation results. To train the Multi-BiSTGN model, a novel loss function that considers the interactions between three temporal correlation views is designed to optimize the parameters of the Multi-BiSTGN model. The proposed model was validated on real-world traffic datasets collected in Wuhan, China. Experimental results showed that Multi-BiSTGN outperformed ten existing baselines under different missing types (random missing, block missing, and mixed missing) and missing rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate traffic flow prediction on the urban road network is an indispensable function of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), which is of great significance for urban traffic planning. However, the current traffic flow prediction methods still face many challenges, such as missing values and dynamic spatial relationships in traffic flow. In this study, a dynamic temporal graph neural network considering missing values (D-TGNM) is proposed for traffic flow prediction. First, inspired by the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), we extend the classic BERT model, called Traffic BERT, to learn the dynamic spatial associations on the road structure. Second, we propose a temporal graph neural network considering missing values (TGNM) to mine traffic flow patterns in missing data scenarios for traffic flow prediction. Finally, the proposed D-TGNM model can be obtained by integrating the dynamic spatial associations learned by Traffic BERT into the TGNM model. To train the D-TGNM model, we design a novel loss function, which considers the missing values problem and prediction problem in traffic flow, to optimize the proposed model. The proposed model was validated on an actual traffic dataset collected in Wuhan, China. Experimental results showed that D-TGNM achieved good prediction results under four missing data scenarios (15% random missing, 15% block missing, 30% random missing, and 30% block missing), and outperformed ten existing state-of-the-art baselines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen, China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control measures.Methods: From Jan 14 to Feb 12, 2020, the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts. We compared cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimated the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and admission to hospital. We estimated metrics of disease transmission and analysed factors influencing transmission risk.Findings: Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45 years) and balanced between males (n=187) and females (n=204). 356 (91%) of 391 cases had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. As of Feb 22, 2020, three cases had died and 225 had recovered (median time to recovery 21 days; 95% CI 20-22). Cases were isolated on average 4·6 days (95% CI 4·1-5·0) after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1·9 days (95% CI 1·1-2·7). Household contacts and those travelling with a case were at higher risk of infection (odds ratio 6·27 [95% CI 1·49-26·33] for household contacts and 7·06 [1·43-34·91] for those travelling with a case) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 11·2% (95% CI 9·1-13·8), and children were as likely to be infected as adults (infection rate 7·4% in children <10 years vs population average of 6·6%). The observed reproductive number (R) was 0·4 (95% CI 0·3-0·5), with a mean serial interval of 6·3 days (95% CI 5·2-7·6).Interpretation: Our data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights into the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. This analysis shows that isolation and contact tracing reduce the time during which cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing the R. The overall impact of isolation and contact tracing, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control.Funding: Emergency Response Program of Harbin Institute of Technology, Emergency Response Program of Peng Cheng Laboratory, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]