51. Long time series of ocean wave prediction based on PatchTST model.
- Author
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Huang, Xinyu, Tang, Jun, and Shen, Yongming
- Subjects
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OCEAN waves , *TIME series analysis , *ARTIFICIAL intelligence , *SHORT-term memory , *LONG-term memory , *BIG data - Abstract
In recent years, AI (artificial intelligence) algorithms based on big data have gradually emerged and been applied to short time predictions of ocean waves (e.g. 1 h, 3 h, ..., 48 h). However, limited by the lack of a better method and time-consuming computation, long time (e.g. 720 h) predictions have not been investigated yet. Based on the problems with study of long time series wave prediction, by using the hourly wave reanalysis data near Bering Sea from 2016 to 2020, this study establishes a long time series AI prediction model for waves with a forecast length of one month (720 h) based on PatchTST model. The time series prediction results of significant wave height evolution in 2021 show that compared with Informer, LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) and NeuralProphet, PatchTST's is significantly superior with COR (Correlation) averages at 0.90, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) averages at 0.65 and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) averages at 0.56 on 12 months of 2021, which can be effectively applied to long time significant wave height prediction. • AI model based on the PatchTST algorithm for predicting the long-term evolution of ocean waves. • PatchTST algorithm is effective and accurate in predicting wave height evolution. • The gap between long-term wave forecasting and short-term wave forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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