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Estimating the changes of epidemiological parameters, such as instantaneous reproduction number, Rt, is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current estimates of time-varying epidemiological parameters often face problems such as lagging observations, averaging inference, and improper quantification of uncertainties. To address these problems, we propose a Bayesian data assimilation framework for time-varying parameter estimation. Specifically, this framework is applied to estimate the instantaneous reproduction number Rt during emerging epidemics, resulting in the state-of-the-art 'DARt' system. With DARt, time misalignment caused by lagging observations is tackled by incorporating observation delays into the joint inference of infections and Rt; the drawback of averaging is overcome by instantaneously updating upon new observations and developing a model selection mechanism that captures abrupt changes; the uncertainty is quantified and reduced by employing Bayesian smoothing. We validate the performance of DARt and demonstrate its power in describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The proposed approach provides a promising solution for making accurate and timely estimation for transmission dynamics based on reported data. Author summary: Monitoring the evolution of transmission dynamics is of great importance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The transmission dynamics of infectious disease is described by epidemiological models, but the model parameters may vary substantially due to differences in government intervention policies. Existing methods on estimating time-varying epidemiological parameters face problems such as lagging observation, averaging inference, and unreliable uncertainty. To address these issues, we have proposed the Bayesian data framework to provide a timely estimate with credibility interval. We have developed the 'DARt' system to monitor the instantaneous reproduction number Rt from daily COVID-19 reports. The accuracy and robustness of our system are validated in numerical simulations and in retrospective analyses of real-world scenarios. Our system provides the insights of impacts of different intervention polices and highlights the effectiveness of undergoing mass vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ketamine is an N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist that has been found to induce schizophrenia-type symptoms in humans and is a potent and fast-acting antidepressant. It is also a relatively widespread drug of abuse, particularly in China and the UK. Acute administration has been well characterized, but the effect of extended periods of ketamine use-on brain structure in humans-remains poorly understood. We measured indices of white matter microstructural integrity and connectivity in the brain of 16 ketamine users and 16 poly-drug-using controls, and we used probabilistic tractography to quantify changes in corticosubcortical connectivity associated with ketamine use. We found a reduction in the axial diffusivity profile of white matter in a right hemisphere network of white matter regions in ketamine users compared with controls. Within the ketamine-user group, we found a significant positive association between the connectivity profile between the caudate nucleus and the lateral prefrontal cortex and dissociative experiences. These findings suggest that chronic ketamine use may be associated with widespread disruption of white matter integrity, and white matter pathways between subcortical and prefrontal cortical areas may in part predict individual differences in dissociative experiences due to ketamine use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Predictive coding explains the recursive hierarchical structure of cortical processes. [•] Granular layer 4, which relays ascending cortical pathways, is absent from motor cortex. [•] Perceptual inference results if ascending sensory data modify sensory predictions action, if spinal reflexes enact descending motor and/or proprioceptive predictions. [•] Motor layer 4 regresses as motor predictions inherently require less modification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The visual cortex is sensitive to emotional stimuli. This sensitivity is typically assumed to arise when amygdala modulates visual cortex via backwards connections. Using human fMRI, we compared dynamic causal connectivity models of sensitivity with fearful faces. This model comparison tested whether amygdala modulates distinct cortical areas, depending on dynamic or static face presentation. The ventral temporal fusiform face area showed sensitivity to fearful expressions in static faces. However, for dynamic faces, we found fear sensitivity in dorsal motion-sensitive areas within hMT+/V5 and superior temporal sulcus. The model with the greatest evidence included connections modulated by dynamic and static fear from amygdala to dorsal and ventral temporal areas, respectively. According to this functional architecture, amygdala could enhance encoding of fearful expression movements from video and the form of fearful expressions from static images. The amygdala may therefore optimize visual encoding of socially charged and salient information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper reviews the foundation for a role of the human anterior insular cortex (AIC) in emotional awareness, defined as the conscious experience of emotions. We first introduce the neuroanatomical features of AIC and existing findings on emotional awareness. Using empathy, the awareness and understanding of other people's emotional states, as a test case, we then present evidence to demonstrate: 1) AIC and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are commonly coactivated as revealed by a meta-analysis, 2) AIC is functionally dissociable from ACC, 3) AIC integrates stimulus-driven and top-down information, and 4) AIC is necessary for emotional awareness. We propose a model in which AIC serves two major functions: integrating bottom-up interoceptive signals with top-down predictions to generate a current awareness state and providing descending predictions to visceral systems that provide a point of reference for autonomic reflexes. We argue that AIC is critical and necessary for emotional awareness. J. Comp. Neurol. 521:3371-3388, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To behave adaptively, an organism must balance the accurate maintenance of information stored in working memory with the ability to update that information when the context changes. This trade-off between fidelity and flexibility may depend upon the anticipated likelihood that updating will be necessary. To address the neurobiological basis of anticipatory optimization, we acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging data, while healthy human subjects performed a modified delayed-response task. This task used cues that predicted memory updating, with high or low probability, followed by a contingent updating or maintenance event. This enabled us to compare behavior and neuronal activity during conditions in which updating was anticipated with high and low probability, and measure responses to expected and unexpected memory updating. Based on the known role of dopamine in cognitive flexibility and working memory updating, we hypothesized that differences in anticipatory set would be manifest in the dopaminergic midbrain and striatum. Consistent with our predictions, we identified sustained activation in the dopaminergic midbrain and the striatum, associated with anticipations of high versus low updating probability. We also found that this anticipatory factor affected neural responses to subsequent updating processes, which suppressed, rather than elevated, midbrain and striatal activity. Our study addresses for the first time an important and hitherto understudied aspect of working memory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

System-specific brain responses—time-locked to rapid eye movements (REMs) in sleep—are characteristically widespread, with robust and clear activation in the primary visual cortex and other structures involved in multisensory integration. This pattern suggests that REMs underwrite hierarchical processing of visual information in a time-locked manner, where REMs index the generation and scanning of virtual-world models, through multisensory integration in dreaming—as in awake states. Default mode network (DMN) activity increases during rest and reduces during various tasks including visual perception. The implicit anticorrelation between the DMN and task-positive network (TPN)—that persists in REM sleep—prompted us to focus on DMN responses to temporally-precise REM events. We timed REMs during sleep from the video recordings and quantified the neural correlates of REMs—using functional MRI (fMRI)—in 24 independent studies of 11 healthy participants. A reanalysis of these data revealed that the cortical areas exempt from widespread REM-locked brain activation were restricted to the DMN. Furthermore, our analysis revealed a modest temporally-precise REM-locked decrease—phasic deactivation—in key DMN nodes, in a subset of independent studies. These results are consistent with hierarchical predictive coding; namely, permissive deactivation of DMN at the top of the hierarchy (leading to the widespread cortical activation at lower levels; especially the primary visual cortex). Additional findings indicate REM-locked cerebral vasodilation and suggest putative mechanisms for dream forgetting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diminished synaptic gain—the sensitivity of postsynaptic responses to neural inputs—may be a fundamental synaptic pathology in schizophrenia. Evidence for this is indirect, however. Furthermore, it is unclear whether pyramidal cells or interneurons (or both) are affected, or how these deficits relate to symptoms. People with schizophrenia diagnoses (PScz) (n = 108), their relatives (n = 57), and control subjects (n = 107) underwent 3 electroencephalography (EEG) paradigms—resting, mismatch negativity, and 40-Hz auditory steady-state response—and resting functional magnetic resonance imaging. Dynamic causal modeling was used to quantify synaptic connectivity in cortical microcircuits. Classic group differences in EEG features between PScz and control subjects were replicated, including increased theta and other spectral changes (resting EEG), reduced mismatch negativity, and reduced 40-Hz power. Across all 4 paradigms, characteristic PScz data features were all best explained by models with greater self-inhibition (decreased synaptic gain) in pyramidal cells. Furthermore, disinhibition in auditory areas predicted abnormal auditory perception (and positive symptoms) in PScz in 3 paradigms. First, characteristic EEG changes in PScz in 3 classic paradigms are all attributable to the same underlying parameter change: greater self-inhibition in pyramidal cells. Second, psychotic symptoms in PScz relate to disinhibition in neural circuits. These findings are more commensurate with the hypothesis that in PScz, a primary loss of synaptic gain on pyramidal cells is then compensated by interneuron downregulation (rather than the converse). They further suggest that psychotic symptoms relate to this secondary downregulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to exact a devastating global toll. Ascertaining the factors underlying differential susceptibility and prognosis following viral exposure is critical to improving public health responses. We propose that gut microbes may contribute to variation in COVID-19 outcomes. We synthesise evidence for gut microbial contributions to immunity and inflammation, and associations with demographic factors affecting disease severity. We suggest mechanisms potentially underlying microbially mediated differential susceptibility to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These include gut microbiome-mediated priming of host inflammatory responses and regulation of endocrine signalling, with consequences for the cellular features exploited by SARS-CoV-2 virions. We argue that considering gut microbiome-mediated mechanisms may offer a lens for appreciating differential susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, potentially contributing to clinical and epidemiological approaches to understanding and managing COVID-19. The outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 show enormous variation among individuals. Given that the sources of this variation are largely unknown, they have been described as 'immunological dark matter'. Emerging studies suggest that the gut microbiome contributes to immunological dark matter. Gut microbial composition and function are associated with several key risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes, including host inflammatory status, age, and biological sex. Crucially, the gut microbiome regulates host inflammation and endocrine function in ways that may alter susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Efforts to study the gut microbiome alongside other host demographic and physiological variables may shed light on differential susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and may thereby contribute to improving patient care and epidemiological modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• New generative model for selective attention during cocktail party listening. • Computational 'lesions' in the model dissociate different errors during word report. • We model different temporal hypotheses for preparatory attention. • Temporal changes in precision are necessary to explain ERPs but not reaction times. • CNV-like responses can be explained by subjective precision rather than action. In this paper, we introduce a new generative model for an active inference account of preparatory and selective attention, in the context of a classic 'cocktail party' paradigm. In this setup, pairs of words are presented simultaneously to the left and right ears and an instructive spatial cue directs attention to the left or right. We use this generative model to test competing hypotheses about the way that human listeners direct preparatory and selective attention. We show that assigning low precision to words at attended—relative to unattended—locations can explain why a listener reports words from a competing sentence. Under this model, temporal changes in sensory precision were not needed to account for faster reaction times with longer cue-target intervals, but were necessary to explain ramping effects on event-related potentials (ERPs)—resembling the contingent negative variation (CNV)—during the preparatory interval. These simulations reveal that different processes are likely to underlie the improvement in reaction times and the ramping of ERPs that are associated with spatial cueing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies have suggested that the default mode network (DMN) plays a central role in the physiopathology of major depressive disorder (MDD). However, the effect of antidepressant treatment on functional connectivity within the DMN has yet to be established. Considering the very high rates of relapse in recovered subjects, we hypothesized that abnormalities in DMN functional connectivity would persist in recovered MDD subjects. Methods: Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging images were collected from 24 MDD patients and 29 healthy control subjects. After 12 weeks of antidepressant treatment, 18 recovered MDD subjects were scanned again. Group independent component analysis was performed to decompose the resting state images into spatially independent components. Default mode subnetworks were identified using a template based on previous studies. Group differences in the ensuing subnetworks were tested using two-sample t tests. Results: Two spatially independent default mode subnetworks were detected in all subjects: the anterior subnetwork and the posterior subnetwork. Both subnetworks showed increased functional connectivity in pretreatment MDD subjects, relative to control subjects. Differences in the posterior subnetwork were normalized after antidepressant treatment, while abnormal functional connectivity persisted within the anterior subnetwork. Conclusions: Our findings suggest a dissociation of the DMN into subnetworks, where persistent abnormal functional connectivity within the anterior subnetwork in recovered MDD subjects may constitute a biomarker of asymptomatic depression and potential for relapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In systems biology, questions concerning the molecular and cellular makeup of an organism are of utmost importance, especially when trying to understand how unreliable components—like genetic circuits, biochemical cascades, and ion channels, among others—enable reliable and adaptive behaviour. The repertoire and speed of biological computations are limited by thermodynamic or metabolic constraints: an example can be found in neurons, where fluctuations in biophysical states limit the information they can encode—with almost 20–60% of the total energy allocated for the brain used for signalling purposes, either via action potentials or by synaptic transmission. Here, we consider the imperatives for neurons to optimise computational and metabolic efficiency, wherein benefits and costs trade-off against each other in the context of self-organised and adaptive behaviour. In particular, we try to link information theoretic (variational) and thermodynamic (Helmholtz) free-energy formulations of neuronal processing and show how they are related in a fundamental way through a complexity minimisation lemma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computational ideas pervade many areas of science and have an integrative explanatory role in neuroscience and cognitive science. However, computational depictions of cognitive function have had surprisingly little impact on the way we assess mental illness because diseases of the mind have not been systematically conceptualized in computational terms. Here, we outline goals and nascent efforts in the new field of computational psychiatry, which seeks to characterize mental dysfunction in terms of aberrant computations over multiple scales. We highlight early efforts in this area that employ reinforcement learning and game theoretic frameworks to elucidate decision-making in health and disease. Looking forwards, we emphasize a need for theory development and large-scale computational phenotyping in human subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In recent years there has been growing interest in multivariate analyses of neuroimaging data, which can be used to detect distributed patterns of activity that encode an experimental factor of interest. In this setting, it has become common practice to study the correlations between patterns to make inferences about the way a brain region represents stimuli or tasks (known as representational similarity analysis). Although it would be of great interest to compare these correlations from different regions, direct comparisons are currently not possible. This is because sample correlations are strongly influenced by voxel-selection, fMRI noise, and nonspecific activation patterns, all of which can differ widely between regions. Here, we present a multivariate modeling framework in which the measured patterns are decomposed into their constituent parts. The model is based on a standard linear mixed model, in which pattern components are considered to be randomly distributed over voxels. The model allows one to estimate the true correlations of the underlying neuronal pattern components, thereby enabling comparisons between different regions or individuals. The pattern estimates also allow us to make inferences about the spatial structure of different response components. Thus, the new model provides a theoretical and analytical framework to study the structure of distributed neural representations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We describe an asymmetric approach to fMRI and MEG/EEG fusion in which fMRI data are treated as empirical priors on electromagnetic sources, such that their influence depends on the MEG/EEG data, by virtue of maximizing the model evidence. This is important if the causes of the MEG/EEG signals differ from those of the fMRI signal. Furthermore, each suprathreshold fMRI cluster is treated as a separate prior, which is important if fMRI data reflect neural activity arising at different times within the EEG/MEG data. We present methodological considerations when mapping from a 3D fMRI Statistical Parametric Map to a 2D cortical surface and thence to the covariance components used within our Parametric Empirical Bayesian framework. Our previous introduction of a canonical (inverse-normalized) cortical mesh also allows deployment of fMRI priors that live in a template space; for example, from a group analysis of different individuals. We evaluate the ensuing scheme with MEG and EEG data recorded simultaneously from 12 participants, using the same face-processing paradigm under which independent fMRI data were obtained. Because the fMRI priors become part of the generative model, we use the model evidence to compare (i) multiple versus single, (ii) valid versus invalid, (iii) binary versus continuous, and (iv) variance versus covariance fMRI priors. For these data, multiple, valid, binary, and variance fMRI priors proved best for a standard Minimum Norm inversion. Interestingly, however, inversion using Multiple Sparse Priors benefited little from additional fMRI priors, suggesting that they already provide a sufficiently flexible generative model. Hum Brain Mapp, 2010. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Anticipatory skin conductance responses [SCRs] are a widely used measure of aversive conditioning in humans. Here, we describe a dynamic causal model [DCM] of how anticipatory, evoked, and spontaneous skin conductance changes are generated by sudomotor nerve activity. Inversion of this model, using variational Bayes, provides a means of inferring the most likely sympathetic nerve activity, given observed skin conductance responses. In two fear conditioning experiments, we demonstrate the predictive validity of the DCM by showing it has greater sensitivity to the effects of conditioning, relative to alternative (conventional) response estimates. Furthermore, we establish face validity by showing that trial-by-trial estimates of anticipatory sudomotor activity are better predicted by formal learning models, relative to response estimates from peak-scoring approaches. The model furnishes a potentially powerful approach to characterising SCR that exploits knowledge about how these signals are generated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans have the arguably unique ability to understand the mental representations of others. For success in both competitive and cooperative interactions, however, this ability must be extended to include representations of others' belief about our intentions, their model about our belief about their intentions, and so on. We developed a "stag hunt" game in which human subjects interacted with a computerized agent using different degrees of sophistication (recursive inferences) and applied an ecologically valid computational model of dynamic belief inference. We show that rostral medial prefrontal (paracingulate) cortex, a brain region consistently identified in psychological tasks requiring mentalizing, has a specific role in encoding the uncertainty of inference about the other's strategy. In contrast, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex encodes the depth of recursion of the strategy being used, an index of executive sophistication. These findings reveal putative computational representations within prefrontal cortex regions, supporting the maintenance of cooperation in complex social decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The synchronous discharge of neuronal assemblies is thought to facilitate communication between areas within distributed networks in the human brain. This oscillatory activity is especially interesting, given the pathological modulation of specific frequencies in diseases affecting the motor system. Many studies investigating oscillatory activity have focused on same frequency, or linear, coupling between areas of a network. In this study, our aim was to establish a functional architecture in the human motor system responsible for induced responses as measured in normal subjects with magnetoencephalography. Specifically, we looked for evidence for additional nonlinear (between-frequency) coupling among neuronal sources and, in particular, whether nonlinearities were found predominantly in connections within areas (intrinsic), between areas (extrinsic) or both. We modeled the event-related modulation of spectral responses during a simple hand-grip using dynamic casual modeling. We compared models with and without nonlinear connections under conditions of symmetric and asymmetric interhemispheric connectivity. Bayesian model comparison suggested that the task-dependent motor network was asymmetric during right hand movements. Furthermore, it revealed very strong evidence for nonlinear coupling between sources in this distributed network, but interactions among frequencies within a source appeared linear in nature. Our results provide empirical evidence for nonlinear coupling among distributed neuronal sources in the motor system and that these play an important role in modulating spectral responses under normal conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we compare mean-field and neural-mass models of electrophysiological responses using Bayesian model comparison. In previous work, we presented a mean-field model of neuronal dynamics as observed with magnetoencephalography and electroencephalography. Unlike neural-mass models, which consider only the mean activity of neuronal populations, mean-field models track the distribution (e.g., mean and dispersion) of population activity. This can be important if the mean affects the dispersion or vice versa. Here, we introduce a dynamical causal model based on mean-field (i.e., population density) models of neuronal activity, and use it to assess the evidence for a coupling between the mean and dispersion of hidden neuronal states using observed electromagnetic responses. We used Bayesian model comparison to compare homologous mean-field and neural-mass models, asking whether empirical responses support a role for population variance in shaping neuronal dynamics. We used the mismatch negativity (MMN) and somatosensory evoked potentials (SEP) as representative neuronal responses in physiological and non-physiological paradigms respectively. Our main conclusion was that although neural-mass models may be sufficient for cognitive paradigms, there is clear evidence for an effect of dispersion at the high levels of depolarization evoked in SEP paradigms. This suggests that (i) the dispersion of neuronal states within populations generating evoked brain signals can be manifest in observed brain signals and that (ii) the evidence for their effects can be accessed with dynamic causal model comparison. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Analytic tools for psychophysiological signals often make implicit assumptions that are unspecified. In developing a mathematical framework for analysis of skin conductance responses [SCRs], we formalise our assumptions by positing that SCRs can be regarded as the output of a linear time-invariant filter. Here, we provide an empirical test of these assumptions. Our findings indicate that a large component of the variance in SCRs can be explained by one response function per individual. We note that baseline variance (i.e. variance in the absence of evoked responses) is higher than variance that could not be explained by a linear time-invariant model of evoked responses. Furthermore, there was no evidence for nonlinear interactions among evoked responses that depended on their temporal overlap. We develop a canonical response function and show that it can be used for signals from different recording sites. We discuss the implications of these observations for model-based analysis of SCRs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Perceptual decisions can be made when sensory input affords an inference about what generated that input. Here, we report findings from two independent perceptual experiments conducted during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a sparse event-related design. The first experiment, in the visual modality, involved forced-choice discrimination of coherence in random dot kinematograms that contained either subliminal or periliminal motion coherence. The second experiment, in the auditory domain, involved free response detection of (non-semantic) near-threshold acoustic stimuli. We analysed fluctuations in ongoing neural activity, as indexed by fMRI, and found that neuronal activity in sensory areas (extrastriate visual and early auditory cortex) biases perceptual decisions towards correct inference and not towards a specific percept. Hits (detection of near-threshold stimuli) were preceded by significantly higher activity than both misses of identical stimuli or false alarms, in which percepts arise in the absence of appropriate sensory input. In accord with predictive coding models and the free-energy principle, this observation suggests that cortical activity in sensory brain areas reflects the precision of prediction errors and not just the sensory evidence or prediction errors per se. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Event-related skin conductance responses (SCRs) are traditionally analysed by comparing the amplitude of individual peaks against a pre-stimulus baseline. Many experimental manipulations in cognitive neuroscience dictate paradigms with short inter trial intervals, precluding accurate baseline estimation for SCR measurements. Here, we present a novel and general approach to SCR analysis, derived from methods used in neuroimaging that estimate responses using a linear convolution model. In effect, the method obviates peak-scoring and makes use of the full SCR. We demonstrate, across three experiments, that the method has face validity in analysing reactions to a loud white noise and emotional pictures, can be generalised to paradigms where the shape of the response function is unknown and can account for parametric trial-by-trial effects. We suggest our approach provides greater flexibility in analysing SCRs than existing methods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this note, we describe a variant of dynamic causal modelling for evoked responses as measured with electroencephalography or magnetoencephalography (EEG and MEG). We depart from equivalent current dipole formulations of DCM, and extend it to provide spatiotemporal source estimates that are spatially distributed. The spatial model is based upon neural-field equations that model neuronal activity on the cortical manifold. We approximate this description of electrocortical activity with a set of local standing-waves that are coupled though their temporal dynamics. The ensuing distributed DCM models source as a mixture of overlapping patches on the cortical mesh. Time-varying activity in this mixture, caused by activity in other sources and exogenous inputs, is propagated through appropriate lead-field or gain-matrices to generate observed sensor data. This spatial model has three key advantages. First, it is more appropriate than equivalent current dipole models, when real source activity is distributed locally within a cortical area. Second, the spatial degrees of freedom of the model can be specified and therefore optimised using model selection. Finally, the model is linear in the spatial parameters, which finesses model inversion. Here, we describe the distributed spatial model and present a comparative evaluation with conventional equivalent current dipole (ECD) models of auditory processing, as measured with EEG. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We present an empirical Bayesian scheme for distributed multimodal inversion of electromagnetic forward models of EEG and MEG signals. We used a generative model with common source activity and separate error components for each modality. Under this scheme, the weightings of error for each modality, relative to source components, are estimated automatically from the data, by optimising the model-evidence. This obviates the need for arbitrary user-defined weightings. To evaluate the scheme, we acquired three types of data simultaneously from twelve participants: total magnetic flux (as recorded by 102 magnetometers), orthogonal in-plane gradients of the magnetic field (as recorded by 204 planar gradiometers) and voltage differences in the electrical field (recorded by 70 electrodes). We assessed the relative precision of each sensor-type in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR); using empirical sample variances and optimised estimators from the generative model. We then compared the localisation of face-evoked responses, using each modality separately, with that obtained by their “fusion” under the common generative model. Finally, we quantified the conditional precisions of the source estimates using their posterior covariance, confirming that EEG can improve MEG-based source reconstructions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper introduces a model of 'theory of mind', namely, how we represent the intentions and goals of others to optimise our mutual interactions. We draw on ideas from optimum control and game theory to provide a 'game theory of mind'. First, we consider the representations of goals in terms of value functions that are prescribed by utility or rewards. Critically, the joint value functions and ensuing behaviour are optimised recursively, under the assumption that I represent your value function, your representation of mine, your representation of my representation of yours, and so on ad infinitum. However, if we assume that the degree of recursion is bounded, then players need to estimate the opponent's degree of recursion (i.e., sophistication) to respond optimally. This induces a problem of inferring the opponent's sophistication, given behavioural exchanges. We show it is possible to deduce whether players make inferences about each other and quantify their sophistication on the basis of choices in sequential games. This rests on comparing generative models of choices with, and without, inference. Model comparison is demonstrated using simulated and real data from a 'stag-hunt'. Finally, we note that exactly the same sophisticated behaviour can be achieved by optimising the utility function itself (through prosocial utility), producing unsophisticated but apparently altruistic agents. This may be relevant ethologically in hierarchal game theory and coevolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we suggest that cortical anatomy recapitulates the temporal hierarchy that is inherent in the dynamics of environmental states. Many aspects of brain function can be understood in terms of a hierarchy of temporal scales at which representations of the environment evolve. The lowest level of this hierarchy corresponds to fast fluctuations associated with sensory processing, whereas the highest levels encode slow contextual changes in the environment, under which faster representations unfold. First, we describe a mathematical model that exploits the temporal structure of fast sensory input to track the slower trajectories of their underlying causes. This model of sensory encoding or perceptual inference establishes a proof of concept that slowly changing neuronal states can encode the paths or trajectories of faster sensory states. We then review empirical evidence that suggests that a temporal hierarchy is recapitulated in the macroscopic organization of the cortex. This anatomic-temporal hierarchy provides a comprehensive framework for understanding cortical function: the specific time-scale that engages a cortical area can be inferred by its location along a rostro-caudal gradient, which reflects the anatomical distance from primary sensory areas. This is most evident in the prefrontal cortex, where complex functions can be explained as operations on representations of the environment that change slowly. The framework provides predictions about, and principled constraints on, cortical structure-function relationships, which can be tested by manipulating the time-scales of sensory input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work reports an empirical examination of two key issues in theoretical neuroscience: distractibility in the context of working memory (WM) and its reward dependence. While these issues have been examined fruitfully in isolation (e.g. Macoveanu et al. in Biol Cybern 96(4): 407–19, 2007), we address them here in tandem, with a focus on how distractibility and reward interact. In particular, we parameterise an observation model that embodies the nonlinear form of such interactions, as described in a recent neuronal network model (Gruber et al. in J Comput Neurosci 20:153–166, 2006). We observe that memory for a target stimulus can be corrupted by distracters in the delay period. Interestingly, in contrast to our theoretical predictions, this corruption was only partial. Distracters do not simply overwrite target; rather, a compromise is reached between target and distracter. Finally, we observed a trend towards a reduced distractibility under conditions of high reward. We discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical formulations of basal and dopamine (DA)-modulated neural bump- attractor networks of working memory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Dynamic causal modelling is an approach to characterising evoked responses as measured by magneto/electroencephalography (M/EEG). A dynamic causal model (DCM) is a spatiotemporal, generative network model for event-related fields/responses (ERP/ERF) data. Using Bayesian model inversion, one can compute the posterior distributions of the DCM’s physiological parameters and its marginal likelihood for model comparison. Model comparison can be used to test mechanistic hypotheses about how electrophysiological data were generated. In this work, we look at the relative importance of changes in intrinsic (within source) and extrinsic (between sources) connections in generating mismatch responses. In short, we introduce the modulation of intrinsic connectivity to the DCM framework. This is useful for testing hypotheses about adaptation of neuronal responses to local influences, in relation to influences that are mediated by long-range extrinsic connections (forward, backward, and lateral) from other sources. We illustrate this extension using synthetic data and empirical data from an oddball ERP experiment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We describe a simple and efficient solution to the problem of reconstructing electromagnetic sources into a canonical or standard anatomical space. Its simplicity rests upon incorporating subject-specific anatomy into the forward model in a way that eschews the need for cortical surface extraction. The forward model starts with a canonical cortical mesh, defined in a standard stereotactic space. The mesh is warped, in a nonlinear fashion, to match the subject’s anatomy. This warping is the inverse of the transformation derived from spatial normalization of the subject’s structural MRI image, using fully automated procedures that have been established for other imaging modalities. Electromagnetic lead fields are computed using the warped mesh, in conjunction with a spherical head model (which does not rely on individual anatomy). The ensuing forward model is inverted using an empirical Bayesian scheme that we have described previously in several publications. Critically, because anatomical information enters the forward model, there is no need to spatially normalize the reconstructed source activity. In other words, each source, comprising the mesh, has a predetermined and unique anatomical attribution within standard stereotactic space. This enables the pooling of data from multiple subjects and the reporting of results in stereotactic coordinates. Furthermore, it allows the graceful fusion of fMRI and MEG data within the same anatomical framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Cortical responses, recorded by electroencephalography and magneto-encephalography, can be characterized in the time domain, to study event-related potentials/fields, or in the time–frequency domain, to study oscillatory activity. In the literature, there is a common conception that evoked, induced, and on-going oscillations reflect different neuronal processes and mechanisms. In this work, we consider the relationship between the mechanisms generating neuronal transients and how they are expressed in terms of evoked and induced power. This relationship is addressed using a neuronally realistic model of interacting neuronal subpopulations. Neuronal transients were generated by changing neuronal input (a dynamic mechanism) or by perturbing the systems coupling parameters (a structural mechanism) to produce induced responses. By applying conventional time–frequency analyses, we show that, in contradistinction to common conceptions, induced and evoked oscillations are perhaps more related than previously reported. Specifically, structural mechanisms normally associated with induced responses can be expressed in evoked power. Conversely, dynamic mechanisms posited for evoked responses can induce responses, if there is variation in neuronal input. We conclude, it may be better to consider evoked responses as the results of mixed dynamic and structural effects. We introduce adjusted power to complement induced power. Adjusted power is unaffected by trial-to-trial variations in input and can be attributed to structural perturbations without ambiguity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Current pathophysiological theories of schizophrenia highlight the role of altered brain connectivity. This dysconnectivity could manifest 1) anatomically, through structural changes of association fibers at the cellular level, and/or 2) functionally, through aberrant control of synaptic plasticity at the synaptic level. In this article, we review the evidence for these theories, focusing on the modulation of synaptic plasticity. In particular, we discuss how dysconnectivity, observed between brain regions in schizophrenic patients, could result from abnormal modulation of N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA)-dependent plasticity by other neurotransmitter systems. We focus on the implication of the dysconnection hypothesis for functional imaging at the systems level. In particular, we review recent advances in measuring plasticity in the human brain using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG) that can be used to address dysconnectivity in schizophrenia. Promising experimental paradigms include perceptual and reinforcement learning. We describe how theoretical and causal models of brain responses might contribute to a mechanistic understanding of synaptic plasticity in schizophrenia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Dynamical causal modeling (DCM) of evoked responses is a new approach to making inferences about connectivity changes in hierarchical networks measured with electro- and magnetoencephalography (EEG and MEG). In a previous paper, we illustrated this concept using a lead field that was specified with infinite prior precision. With this prior, the spatial expression of each source area, in the sensors, is fixed. In this paper, we show that using lead field parameters with finite precision enables the data to inform the network''s spatial configuration and its expression at the sensors. This means that lead field and coupling parameters can be estimated simultaneously. Alternatively, one can also view DCM for evoked responses as a source reconstruction approach with temporal, physiologically informed constraints. We will illustrate this idea using, for each area, a 4-shell equivalent current dipole (ECD) model with three location and three orientation parameters. Using synthetic and real data, we show that this approach furnishes accurate and robust conditional estimates of coupling among sources and their orientations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We assess the suitability of conventional parametric statistics for analyzing oscillatory activity, as measured with electroencephalography/magnetoencephalography (EEG/MEG). The approach we consider is based on narrow-band power time-frequency decompositions of single-trial data. The ensuing power measures have a χ2-distribution. The use of the general linear model (GLM) under normal error assumptions is, therefore, difficult to motivate for these data. This is unfortunate because the GLM plays a central role in classical inference and is the standard estimation and inference framework for neuroimaging data. The key contribution of this work is to show that, in many circumstances, one can appeal to the central limit theorem and assume normality for generative models of power. If this is not appropriate, one can transform the data to render the error terms approximately normal. These considerations allow one to analyze induced and evoked oscillations using standard frameworks like statistical parametric mapping. We establish the validity of parametric tests using synthetic and real data and compare its performance to established nonparametric procedures. Hum Brain Mapp, 2005. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the synaptic connection strengths between neurons are believed to play a role in memory formation. An important mechanism for changing synaptic strength is through movement of neurotransmitter receptors and regulatory proteins to and from the synapse. Several activity-triggered biochemical events control these movements. Here we use computer models to explore how these putative memory-related changes can be stabilised long after the initial trigger, and beyond the lifetime of synaptic molecules. We base our models on published biochemical data and experiments on the activity-dependent movement of a glutamate receptor, AMPAR, and a calcium-dependent kinase, CaMKII. We find that both of these molecules participate in distinct bistable switches. These simulated switches are effective for long periods despite molecular turnover and biochemical fluctuations arising from the small numbers of molecules in the synapse. The AMPAR switch arises from a novel self-recruitment process where the presence of sufficient receptors biases the receptor movement cycle to insert still more receptors into the synapse. The CaMKII switch arises from autophosphorylation of the kinase. The switches may function in a tightly coupled manner, or relatively independently. The latter case leads to multiple stable states of the synapse. We propose that similar self-recruitment cycles may be important for maintaining levels of many molecules that undergo regulated movement, and that these may lead to combinatorial possible stable states of systems like the synapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this work was to investigate the mechanisms that shape evoked electroencephalographic (EEG) and magneto-encephalographic (MEG) responses. We used a neuronally plausible model to characterise the dependency of response components on the models parameters. This generative model was a neural mass model of hierarchically arranged areas using three kinds of inter-area connections (forward, backward and lateral). We investigated how responses, at each level of a cortical hierarchy, depended on the strength of connections or coupling. Our strategy was to systematically add connections and examine the responses of each successive architecture. We did this in the context of deterministic responses and then with stochastic spontaneous activity. Our aim was to show, in a simple way, how event-related dynamics depend on extrinsic connectivity. To emphasise the importance of nonlinear interactions, we tried to disambiguate the components of event-related potentials (ERPs) or event-related fields (ERFs) that can be explained by a linear superposition of trial-specific responses and those engendered nonlinearly (e.g., by phase-resetting). Our key conclusions were; (i) when forward connections, mediating bottom-up or extrinsic inputs, are sufficiently strong, nonlinear mechanisms cause a saturation of excitatory interneuron responses. This endows the system with an inherent stability that precludes nondissipative population dynamics. (ii) The duration of evoked transients increases with the hierarchical depth or level of processing. (iii) When backward connections are added, evoked transients become more protracted, exhibiting damped oscillations. These are formally identical to late or endogenous components seen empirically. This suggests that late components are mediated by reentrant dynamics within cortical hierarchies. (iv) Bilateral connections produce similar effects to backward connections but can also mediate zero-lag phase-locking among areas. (v) Finally, with spontaneous activity, ERPs/ERFs can arise from two distinct mechanisms: For low levels of (stimulus related and ongoing) activity, the systems response conforms to a quasi-linear superposition of separable responses to the fixed and stochastic inputs. This is consistent with classical assumptions that motivate trial averaging to suppress spontaneous activity and disclose the ERP/ERF. However, when activity is sufficiently high, there are nonlinear interactions between the fixed and stochastic inputs. This interaction is expressed as a phase-resetting and represents a qualitatively different explanation for the ERP/ERF. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The analysis of electrophysiological data often produces results that are continuous in one or more dimensions, e.g., time–frequency maps, peri-stimulus time histograms, and cross-correlation functions. Classical inferences made on the ensuing statistical maps must control family wise error (FWE) when searching across the map''s dimensions. In this paper, we borrow multiple comparisons procedures, established in neuroimaging, and apply them to electrophysiological data. These procedures use random field theory (RFT) to adjust p-values from statistics that are functions of time and/or frequency. This RFT adjustment for continuous statistical processes plays the same role as a Bonnferonni adjustment in the context of discrete statistical tests. Here, by analysing the time–frequency decompositions of single channel EEG data we show that RFT adjustments can be used in the analysis of electrophysiological data and illustrate the advantages of this method over existing approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We describe a Bayesian estimation and inference procedure for fMRI time series based on the use of General Linear Models (GLMs). Importantly, we use a spatial prior on regression coefficients which embodies our prior knowledge that evoked responses are spatially contiguous and locally homogeneous. Further, using a computationally efficient Variational Bayes framework, we are able to let the data determine the optimal amount of smoothing. We assume an arbitrary order Auto-Regressive (AR) model for the errors. Our model generalizes earlier work on voxel-wise estimation of GLM-AR models and inference in GLMs using Posterior Probability Maps (PPMs). Results are shown on simulated data and on data from an event-related fMRI experiment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We use a neural mass model to address some important issues in characterising functional integration among remote cortical areas using magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography (MEG or EEG). In a previous paper [Neuroimage (in press)], we showed how the coupling among cortical areas can modulate the MEG or EEG spectrum and synchronise oscillatory dynamics. In this work, we exploit the model further by evaluating different measures of statistical dependencies (i.e., functional connectivity) among MEG or EEG signals that are mediated by neuronal coupling. We have examined linear and nonlinear methods, including phase synchronisation. Our results show that each method can detect coupling but with different sensitivity profiles that depended on (i) the frequency specificity of the interaction (broad vs. narrow band) and (ii) the nature of the coupling (linear vs. nonlinear).Our analyses suggest that methods based on the concept of generalised synchronisation are the most sensitive when interactions encompass different frequencies (broadband analyses). In the context of narrow-band analyses, mutual information was found to be the most sensitive way to disclose frequency-specific couplings. Measures based on generalised synchronisation and phase synchronisation are the most sensitive to nonlinear coupling. These different sensitivity profiles mean that the choice of coupling measures can have dramatic effects on the cortical networks identified. We illustrate this using a single-subject MEG study of binocular rivalry and highlight the greater recovery of statistical dependencies among cortical areas in the beta band when mutual information is used. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In neuroimaging, data are often modeled using general linear models. Here, we focus on GLMs with error covariances which are modeled as a linear combination of multiple variance/covariance components. Each of these components is weighted by one variance parameter. In many analyses variance parameters are estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (ReML). Most classical approaches assume the error covariance matrix can be factorized into a single variance parameter and a nonspherical correlation matrix. In this context, the F test based on a single variance parameter, with a suitable correction to the degrees of freedom, is the standard inference tool. This correction can also be adapted to models with multiple variance parameters. However, this extension overlooks the uncertainty about the variance parameter estimates and P values tend to be underestimated. Here, we show how one can overcome this problem to render the F test more exact. This issue is important, because serial correlations in fMRI time series are generally modeled using multiple variance parameters. Another application is to hierarchical linear models, which are used for modeling multisubject data. To illustrate our approach, we apply it to some typical modeling scenarios in fMRI data analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this study we demonstrate the importance of distributed sampling of peristimulus time in blocked design fMRI studies. Distributed sampling ensures all the components of an event-related hemodynamic response are sampled and avoids the bias incurred when stimulus presentation is time-locked to data acquisition. We found that differences in the temporal offset between stimulus presentation and data acquisition had a significant effect on some language-related activations. These effects, induced by simply shifting stimulus presentation by a fraction of the interscan interval, suggest that fixed sampling does indeed bias estimated responses, even in blocked designs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Distributed linear solutions of the EEG source localization problem are used routinely. Here we describe an approach based on the weighted minimum norm method that imposes constraints using anatomical and physiological information derived from other imaging modalities to regularize the solution. In this approach the hyperparameters controlling the degree of regularization are estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (ReML). EEG data are always contaminated by noise, e.g., exogenous noise and background brain activity. The conditional expectation of the source distribution, given the data, is attained by carefully balancing the minimization of the residuals induced by noise and the improbability of the estimates as determined by their priors. This balance is specified by hyperparameters that control the relative importance of fitting and conforming to prior constraints. Here we introduce a systematic approach to this regularization problem, in the context of a linear observation model we have described previously. In this model, basis functions are extracted to reduce the solution space a priori in the spatial and temporal domains. The basis sets are motivated by knowledge of the evoked EEG response and information theory. In this paper we focus on an iterative “expectation-maximization” procedure to jointly estimate the conditional expectation of the source distribution and the ReML hyperparameters on which this solution rests. We used simulated data mixed with real EEG noise to explore the behavior of the approach with various source locations, priors, and noise levels. The results enabled us to conclude: (i) Solutions in the space of informed basis functions have a high face and construct validity, in relation to conventional analyses. (ii) The hyperparameters controlling the degree of regularization vary largely with source geometry and noise. The second conclusion speaks to the usefulness of using adaptative ReML hyperparameter estimates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Distributed linear solutions have frequently been used to solve the source localization problem in EEG. Here we introduce an approach based on the weighted minimum norm (WMN) method that imposes constraints using anatomical and physiological information derived from other imaging modalities. The anatomical constraints are used to reduce the solution space a priori by modeling the spatial source distribution with a set of basis functions. These spatial basis functions are chosen in a principled way using information theory. The reduced problem is then solved with a classical WMN method. Further (functional) constraints can be introduced in the weighting of the solution using fMRI brain responses to augment spatial priors. We used simulated data to explore the behavior of the approach over a range of the model''s hyperparameters. To assess the construct validity of our method we compared it with two established approaches to the source localization problem, a simple weighted minimum norm and a maximum smoothness (Loreta-like) solution. This involved simulations, using single and multiple sources that were analyzed under different levels of confidence in the priors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The ability to find targets embedded within complex visual environments requires the dynamic programming of visuomotor search behaviors. Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to image subjects while they visually searched for targets embedded among foils. Visuomotor search activated the posterior parietal cortex and the frontal eye fields. Both regions showed a greater number of activated voxels on the right, consistent with the known pattern of right hemispheric dominance for spatial attention. The superior colliculus showed prominent activation in the search versus eye movement contrast, demonstrating, for the first time in humans, activation of this region specifically related to an exploratory attentional contingency. An analysis of effective connectivity demonstrated that the search-dependent variance in the activity of the superior colliculus was significantly influenced by the activity in a network of cortical regions including the right frontal eye fields and bilateral parietal and occipital cortices. These experiments also revealed the presence of a mosaic of activated sites within the frontal eye field region wherein saccadic eye movements, covert shifts of attention, and visuomotor search elicited overlapping but not identical zones of activation. In contrast to the existing literature on functional imaging, which has focused on covert shifts of spatial attention, this study helps to characterize the functional anatomy of overt spatial exploration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An interesting inference drawn by some COVID-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection—even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of the immune response to a virus. This is based upon the same sort of mean-field dynamics as used in epidemiology. However, in place of the location, clinical status, and other attributes of people in an epidemiological model, we consider the state of a virus, B and T-lymphocytes, and the antibodies they generate. Our aim is to formalise some key hypotheses as to the mechanism of resistance. We present a series of simple simulations illustrating changes to the dynamics of the immune response under these hypotheses. These include attenuated viral cell entry, pre-existing cross-reactive humoral (antibody-mediated) immunity, and enhanced T-cell dependent immunity. Finally, we illustrate the potential application of this sort of model by illustrating variational inversion (using simulated data) of this model to illustrate its use in testing hypotheses. In principle, this furnishes a fast and efficient immunological assay—based on sequential serology—that provides a (1) quantitative measure of latent immunological responses and (2) a Bayes optimal classification of the different kinds of immunological response (c.f., glucose tolerance tests used to test for insulin resistance). This may be especially useful in assessing SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional recovery after brain damage varies widely and depends on many factors, including lesion site and extent. When a neuronal system is damaged, recovery may occur by engaging residual (e.g., perilesional) components. When damage is extensive, recovery depends on the availability of other intact neural structures that can reproduce the same functional output (i.e., degeneracy). A system's response to damage may occur rapidly, require learning or both. Here, we simulate functional recovery from four different types of lesions, using a generative model of word repetition that comprised a default premorbid system and a less used alternative system. The synthetic lesions (i) completely disengaged the premorbid system, leaving the alternative system intact, (ii) partially damaged both premorbid and alternative systems, and (iii) limited the experience-dependent plasticity of both. The results, across 1000 trials, demonstrate that (i) a complete disconnection of the premorbid system naturally invoked the engagement of the other, (ii) incomplete damage to both systems had a much more devastating long-term effect on model performance and (iii) the effect of reducing learning capacity within each system. These findings contribute to formal frameworks for interpreting the effect of different types of lesions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active inference is a first principle account of how autonomous agents operate in dynamic, nonstationary environments. This problem is also considered in reinforcement learning, but limited work exists on comparing the two approaches on the same discrete-state environments. In this letter, we provide (1) an accessible overview of the discrete-state formulation of active inference, highlighting natural behaviors in active inference that are generally engineered in reinforcement learning, and (2) an explicit discrete-state comparison between active inference and reinforcement learning on an OpenAI gym baseline. We begin by providing a condensed overview of the active inference literature, in particular viewing the various natural behaviors of active inference agents through the lens of reinforcement learning. We show that by operating in a pure belief-based setting, active inference agents can carry out epistemic exploration—and account for uncertainty about their environment—in a Bayes-optimal fashion. Furthermore, we show that the reliance on an explicit reward signal in reinforcement learning is removed in active inference, where reward can simply be treated as another observation we have a preference over; even in the total absence of rewards, agent behaviors are learned through preference learning. We make these properties explicit by showing two scenarios in which active inference agents can infer behaviors in reward-free environments compared to both Q-learning and Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning agents and by placing zero prior preferences over rewards and learning the prior preferences over the observations corresponding to reward. We conclude by noting that this formalism can be applied to more complex settings (e.g., robotic arm movement, Atari games) if appropriate generative models can be formulated. In short, we aim to demystify the behavior of active inference agents by presenting an accessible discrete state-space and time formulation and demonstrate these behaviors in a OpenAI gym environment, alongside reinforcement learning agents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The positive-negative axis of emotional valence has long been recognized as fundamental to adaptive behavior, but its origin and underlying function have largely eluded formal theorizing and computational modeling. Using deep active inference, a hierarchical inference scheme that rests on inverting a model of how sensory data are generated, we develop a principled Bayesian model of emotional valence. This formulation asserts that agents infer their valence state based on the expected precision of their action model—an internal estimate of overall model fitness ("subjective fitness"). This index of subjective fitness can be estimated within any environment and exploits the domain generality of second-order beliefs (beliefs about beliefs). We show how maintaining internal valence representations allows the ensuing affective agent to optimize confidence in action selection preemptively. Valence representations can in turn be optimized by leveraging the (Bayes-optimal) updating term for subjective fitness, which we label affective charge (AC). AC tracks changes in fitness estimates and lends a sign to otherwise unsigned divergences between predictions and outcomes. We simulate the resulting affective inference by subjecting an in silico affective agent to a T-maze paradigm requiring context learning, followed by context reversal. This formulation of affective inference offers a principled account of the link between affect, (mental) action, and implicit metacognition. It characterizes how a deep biological system can infer its affective state and reduce uncertainty about such inferences through internal action (i.e., top-down modulation of priors that underwrite confidence). Thus, we demonstrate the potential of active inference to provide a formal and computationally tractable account of affect. Our demonstration of the face validity and potential utility of this formulation represents the first step within a larger research program. Next, this model can be leveraged to test the hypothesized role of valence by fitting the model to behavioral and neuronal responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We model selective visual attention in macaques using Dynamic Causal Modeling. • Intrinsic V1 modulation can explain attention effects in V1-V4 communication. • Modulation of superficial and granular inhibition is key to induce the effects. • Those modulations increase V1-V4 communication in a feedforward manner. Selective attention implements preferential routing of attended stimuli, likely through increasing the influence of the respective synaptic inputs on higher-area neurons. As the inputs of competing stimuli converge onto postsynaptic neurons, presynaptic circuits might offer the best target for attentional top-down influences. If those influences enabled presynaptic circuits to selectively entrain postsynaptic neurons, this might explain selective routing. Indeed, when two visual stimuli induce two gamma rhythms in V1, only the gamma induced by the attended stimulus entrains gamma in V4. Here, we modelled induced responses with a Dynamic Causal Model for Cross-Spectral Densities and found that selective entrainment can be explained by attentional modulation of intrinsic V1 connections. Specifically, local inhibition was decreased in the granular input layer and increased in the supragranular output layer of the V1 circuit that processed the attended stimulus. Thus, presynaptic attentional influences and ensuing entrainment were sufficient to mediate selective routing. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a proof of principle for an evolutionary systems theory (EST) of depression. This theory suggests that normative depressive symptoms counter socioenvironmental volatility by increasing interpersonal support via social signalling and that this response depends upon the encoding of uncertainty about social contingencies, which can be targeted by neuromodulatory antidepressants. We simulated agents that committed to a series of decisions in a social two-arm bandit task before and after social adversity, which precipitated depressive symptoms. Responses to social adversity were modelled under various combinations of social support and pharmacotherapy. The normative depressive phenotype responded positively to social support and simulated treatments with antidepressants. Attracting social support and administering antidepressants also alleviated anhedonia and social withdrawal, speaking to improvements in interpersonal relationships. These results support the EST of depression by demonstrating that following adversity, normative depressed mood preserved social inclusion with appropriate interpersonal support or pharmacotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive social behavior and mental well-being depend on not only recognizing emotional expressions but also, inferring the absence of emotion. While the neurobiology underwriting the perception of emotions is well studied, the mechanisms for detecting a lack of emotional content in social signals remain largely unknown. Here, using cutting-edge analyses of effective brain connectivity, we uncover the brain networks differentiating neutral and emotional body language. The data indicate greater activation of the right amygdala and midline cerebellar vermis to nonemotional as opposed to emotional body language. Most important, the effective connectivity between the amygdala and insula predicts people’s ability to recognize the absence of emotion. These conclusions extend substantially current concepts of emotion perception by suggesting engagement of limbic effective connectivity in recognizing the lack of emotion in body language reading. Furthermore, the outcome may advance the understanding of overly emotional interpretation of social signals in depression or schizophrenia by providing the missing link between body language reading and limbic pathways. The study thus opens an avenue for multidisciplinary research on social cognition and the underlying cerebrocerebellar networks, ranging from animal models to patients with neuropsychiatric conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]