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Objective: We aimed at identifying baseline predictive factors for emergency department (ED) readmission, with hospitalisation/death, in patients with COVID-19 previously discharged from the ED. We also developed a disease progression velocity index., Design and Setting: Retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data. The charts of consecutive patients with COVID-19 discharged from the Reggio Emilia (Italy) ED (2 March 2 to 31 March 2020) were retrospectively examined. Clinical, laboratory and CT findings at first ED admission were tested as predictive factors using multivariable logistic models. We divided CT extension by days from symptom onset to build a synthetic velocity index., Participants: 450 patients discharged from the ED with diagnosis of COVID-19., Main Outcome Measure: ED readmission within 14 days, followed by hospitalisation/death., Results: Of the discharged patients, 84 (18.7%) were readmitted to the ED, 61 (13.6%) were hospitalised and 10 (2.2%) died. Age (OR=1.05; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.08), Charlson Comorbidity Index 3 versus 0 (OR=11.61; 95% CI 1.76 to 76.58), days from symptom onset (OR for 1-day increase=0.81; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.90) and CT extension (OR for 1% increase=1.03; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06) were associated in a multivariable model for readmission with hospitalisation/death. A 2-day lag velocity index was a strong predictor (OR for unit increase=1.21, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.36); the model including this index resulted in less information loss., Conclusions: A velocity index combining CT extension and days from symptom onset predicts disease progression in patients with COVID-19. For example, a 20% CT extension 3 days after symptom onset has the same risk as does 50% after 10 days., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score is a prognostic model to identify heart failure (HF) patients at risk for cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and urgent heart transplantation (uHT) based on 6 routine clinical parameters: hemoglobin, sodium, kidney function by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF), percentage of predicted peak oxygen consumption (VO2) and VE/VCO2 slope., Objectives: MECKI score must be generalizable to be considered useful: therefore, its performance was validated in a new sequence of HF patients., Methods: Both the development (MECKI-D) and the validation (MECKI-V) cohorts were composed of consecutive HF patients with LVEF <40% able to perform a symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The CVM or uHT rates were analyzed at one, two and three years in both cohorts: all patients with a censoring time shorter than the scheduled follow-up were excluded, while those with events occurring after 1, 2 and 3 years were considered as censored., Results: MECKI-D and MECKI-V consisted of 2009 and 992 patients, respectively. MECKI-V patients had a higher LVEF, higher peak VO2 and lower VE/VCO2 slope, higher prescription of beta-blockers and device therapy: after the 3-year follow-up, CVM or uHT occurred in 206 (18%) MECKI-D and 44 (13%) MECKI-V patients (p<0.000), respectively. MECKI-V AUC values at one, two and three years were 0.81 ± 0.04, 0.76 ± 0.04, and 0.80 ± 0.03, respectively, not significantly different from MECKI-D., Conclusions: MECKI score preserves its predictive ability in a HF population at a lower risk., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)