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Understanding the boundary-layer height and its dynamics is crucial for a wide array of applications spanning various fields. Accurate identification of the boundary-layer top contributes to improved air quality predictions, pollutant transport assessments, and enhanced numerical weather prediction through parameterization and assimilation techniques. Despite its significance, defining and observing the boundary-layer top remain challenging. Existing methods of estimating the boundary-layer height encompass radiosonde-based methods, radar-based retrievals, and more. As emerging boundary-layer observation platforms emerge, it is useful to reevaluate the efficacy of existing boundary-layer-top detection methods and explore new ones. This study introduces a fuzzy logic algorithm that leverages the synergy of multiple remote sensing boundary-layer profiling instruments: a Doppler lidar, infrared spectrometer, and microwave radiometer. By harnessing the distinct advantages of each sensing platform, the proposed method enables accurate boundary-layer height estimation both during daytime and nocturnal conditions. The algorithm is benchmarked against radiosonde-derived boundary-layer-top estimates obtained from balloon launches across diverse locations in Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Louisiana during summer and fall. The findings reveal notable similarities between the results produced by the proposed fuzzy logic algorithm and traditional radiosonde-based approaches. However, this study delves into the nuanced differences in their behavior, providing insightful analyses about the underlying causes of the observed discrepancies. While developed with the three instruments mentioned above, the fuzzy logic boundary-layer-top detection algorithm, called BLISS-FL, could be adapted for other wind and thermodynamic profilers. BLISS-FL is released publicly, fostering collaboration and advancement within the research community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge about the depth of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is crucial for a variety of applications, but direct observations of PBL depth are spatiotemporally sparse. Recent studies have proposed using operational dual-polarization weather radars to observe the evolution of PBL depth by capitalizing on unique differential reflectivity (ZDR) signatures of Bragg scatter at the top of the PBL. While this approach appears promising and cost-effective, uncertainties remain about the representativeness of these estimates and how its efficacy may vary by geography and climatology. To address these outstanding uncertainties, this study compares collocated observations collected from two WSR-88D radars and two state-of-the-art mobile boundary layer profiling systems and evaluates the proposed methodology over the full diurnal cycle. Results indicate good overall correspondence between the profiling- and radar-based PBL depth estimates, with an abrupt divergence during the early evening transition and large discrepancies overnight. Relatively large root-mean-square-deviations (RMSDs) coupled with small biases match expectations when comparing spatially averaged data with point observations during PBL growth, which capture frequent fluctuations. A qualitative examination of the radar data reveals signatures of elevated residual layers, clouds, and ground clutter, all of which can obfuscate the desired surface-based PBL signal but which may have their own utility. The prominence of the Bragg scatter signal is found to be correlated with the observed moisture gradient at the top of the PBL, reflecting climatological variability that should be considered. These findings motivate further work to improve the automated detection of Bragg scatter layers from polarimetric radar data. Significance Statement: Knowledge of the height of the planetary boundary layer matters for weather forecasting, air quality, and renewable energy production. Currently, boundary layer height measurements are taken at select locations twice a day. However, a method to use the existing national network of polarimetric weather radars for this purpose has been proposed. This work evaluates this method against specialized boundary layer measurements. The results show that the method is generally reliable during the daytime and could be used for a variety of applications including climatologies and model evaluation. There remain a number of situational caveats, including residual turbulence, clouds/precipitation, ground clutter, and certain meteorological environments, that may require modification of the approach and need to be considered in future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve short‐term severe weather forecasts through assimilation of polarimetric radar data (PRD), the use of accurate and efficient forward operators for polarimetric radar variables is required. In this study, a new melting model is proposed to estimate the mixing ratio and number concentration of melting hydrometeor species and incorporated in a set of parameterized polarimetric radar forward operators. The new melting model depends only on the mixing ratio and number concentration of rain and ice species and is characterized by its independence from ambient temperature and its simplicity and ease of linearization. To assess the impact of this newly proposed melting model on the simulated polarimetric radar variables, a real mesoscale convective system is simulated using three double‐moment microphysics schemes. Compared with the output of the original implementation of the parameterized forward operators (PFO_Old) that rely on an "old" melting model which only estimates the mixing ratio of the melting species, the updated implementation with the new melting model (PFO_New) that estimates both the mixing ratio and number concentration of melting species eliminates the very large mass/volume‐weighted mean diameter (Dm) at the bottom of the melting layer and produces more reasonable melting layer signatures for all three double‐moment microphysics schemes that more closely match the corresponding radar observations. This suggests that the new melting model has more reasonable implicit estimates of mixing ratios and number concentrations of melting hydrometeor species than the "old" melting model. Plain Language Summary: Weather radars can provide information about observed precipitation that can be used to improve weather forecast models. Making use of this information requires linking the radar observations with the variables these models predict in an efficient and accurate way. One of the most pronounced signatures in weather radar observations occurs as precipitation melts from ice into rain. However, current operational forecast models do not explicitly predict melting ice as a separate category of precipitation. Therefore, existing methods for comparing radar observations to forecast models use an empirical melting model to estimate the mass of melting ice and assume melting ice has the same concentration as the model‐predicted dry ice. These assumptions result in a simulated radar melting layer signature that is unrealistically thick and low. In this study, a new melting model is proposed for estimating both the mass and concentration of melting ice, and its effects on simulated radar variables are evaluated for a severe thunderstorm case. For all of the microphysics schemes investigated, the newly proposed melting model results in improved simulations of the size of melting ice particles and simulated radar variables that are closer to those observed. Key Points: A new melting model is proposed and introduced into forward operators for simulation of polarimetric radar dataMore reasonable polarimetric signatures of the melting layer are simulated using different double‐moment microphysics schemesThese polarimetric forward operators have potential to be used in data assimilation for improving high‐resolution severe weather forecasts [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the boundary-layer height and its dynamics is crucial for a wide array of applications spanning various fields. Accurate identification of the boundary-layer top contributes to improved air quality predictions, pollutant transport assessments, and enhanced numerical weather prediction through parameterization and assimilation techniques. Despite its significance, defining and observing the boundary-layer top remains challenging. Existing methods of estimating the boundary-layer height encompass radiosonde-based methods, radar-based retrievals, and more. As emerging boundary-layer observation platforms emerge, it is useful to reevaluate the efficacy of existing boundary-layer top detection methods and explore new ones. This study introduces a fuzzy-logic algorithm that leverages the synergy of multiple remote-sensing boundary-layer profiling instruments. By harnessing the distinct advantages of each sensing platform, the proposed method enables accurate boundary-layer height estimation both during daytime and nocturnal conditions. The algorithm is benchmarked against radiosonde-derived boundary-layer top estimates obtained from balloon launches across diverse locations in Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Louisiana during summer and fall. The findings reveal notable similarities between the results produced by the proposed fuzzy-logic algorithm and traditional radiosonde-based approaches. However, this study delves into the nuanced differences in their behavior, providing insightful analyses about the underlying causes of the observed discrepancies. The fuzzy-logic boundary-layer top detection algorithm, called BLISS-FL, is released publicly fostering collaboration and advancement within the research community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Raindrop size distributions (DSD) and rain rate have been estimated from polarimetric radar data using different approaches with the accuracy depending on the errors both in the radar measurements and the estimation methods. Herein, a deep neural network (DNN) technique was utilized to improve the estimation of the DSD and rain rate by mitigating these errors. The performance of this approach was evaluated using measurements from a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) at the Kessler Atmospheric and Ecological Field Station in Oklahoma as ground truth with the results compared against conventional estimation methods for the period 2006-17. Physical parameters (mass-/volume-weighted diameter and liquid water content), rain rate, and polarimetric radar variables (including radar reflectivity and differential reflectivity) were obtained from the DSD data. Three methods--physics-based inversion, empirical formula, and DNN--were applied to two different temporal domains (instantaneous and rain-event average) with three diverse error assumptions (fitting, measurement, and model errors). The DSD retrievals and rain estimates from 18 cases were evaluated by calculating the bias and root-mean-squared error (RMSE). DNN produced the best performance for most cases, with up to a 5% reduction in RMSE when model errors existed. DSD and rain estimated from a nearby polarimetric radar using the empirical and DNN methods were well correlated with the disdrometer observations; the rain-rate estimate bias of the DNN was significantly reduced (3.3%in DNN vs 50.1%in empirical). These results suggest that DNN has advantages over the physics-based and empirical methods in retrieving rain microphysics from radar observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assimilating radar reflectivity into convective-scale NWP models remains a challenging topic in radar data assimilation. A primary reason is that the reflectivity forward observation operator is highly nonlinear. To address this challenge, a power transformation function is applied to the WRF Model's hydrometeor and water vapor mixing ratio variables in this study. Three 3D variational data assimilation experiments are performed and compared for five high-impact weather events that occurred in 2019: (i) a control experiment that assimilates reflectivity using the original hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables, (ii) an experiment that assimilates reflectivity using power-transformed hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables, and (iii) an experiment that assimilates reflectivity and retrieved pseudo–water vapor observations using power-transformed hydrometeor and water vapor mixing ratios (qυ) as control variables. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are performed for 0–3-h forecasts from the five cases. The analysis and forecast performance in the two experiments with power-transformed mixing ratios is better than the control experiment. Notably, the assimilation of pseudo–water vapor with power-transformed qυ as an additional control variable is found to improve the performance of the analysis and short-term forecasts for all cases. In addition, the convergence rate of the cost function minimization for the two experiments that use the power transformation is faster than that of the control experiments. Significance Statement: The effective use of radar reflectivity observations in any data assimilation scheme remains an important research topic because reflectivity observations explicitly include information about hydrometeors and also implicitly include information about the distribution of moisture within storms. However, it is difficult to assimilate reflectivity because the reflectivity forward observation operator is highly nonlinear. This study seeks to identify a more effective way to assimilate reflectivity into a convective-scale NWP model to improve the accuracy of predictions of high-impact weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have performed microphysical retrievals using radars of different frequencies, platforms, and methodologies. However, little is known about the consistency of retrievals derived from different radar platforms (i.e., airborne or spaceborne vs. ground‐based) and their methodologies. This study is the first to directly compare snow mass‐weighted mean diameter (Dm) retrievals from both nadir‐pointing airborne multi‐frequency radars and ground‐based polarimetric range‐height indicator radar scans along the same airborne flight track with a resolution of O(10m) $\mathcal{O}(10\,\mathrm{m})$. Dm retrievals between each method produced mean absolute errors of 0.49, 0.74, and 0.93 mm where the largest differences were between the ground and aircraft retrievals. A triple‐frequency analysis suggests the possibility that snow aggregates were generally composed of needles. These results can be used as a benchmark for comparing retrieval methodologies and highlight the continued uncertainty regarding the optimal approach for ice microphysical retrievals. Plain Language Summary: Both airborne and ground‐based weather radar measurements can be used to estimate snowflake characteristics such as their mean size. However, it is difficult to compare the radar‐estimated mean sizes between these platforms because of the vast methodological differences in how these sizes are estimated and the spatial and temporal differences resulting from each radar's geographical location. This study is the first to directly compare snowflake size retrievals using ground‐based mobile radar scans that collected data along the same path as an overhead‐passing aircraft, thus directly minimizing any error resulting from matching values between radars aboard the aircraft and the ground radar. We also used the aircraft radars' multiple frequencies to investigate what types of particles were dominant throughout the storm. Through this multi‐frequency analysis, we found that it is possible that snow particles were aggregates of thin needles that were stuck together. These results can be used by other researchers and forecasters to understand how snowflake size estimates can vary between different platforms and methodologies. Key Points: Mobile X‐band polarimetric radar Range Height Indictor scans were directly collocated with overpassing multi‐frequency airborne radars during a snowstormThree separate mass‐weighted mean diameter retrievals had mean absolute errors of 0.49, 0.74, and 0.93 mm between each otherThese results provide a one‐of‐a‐kind, high‐resolution benchmark for comparing retrieval methods across various platforms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quasi-vertical profiles (QVPs) of polarimetric radar data have emerged as a powerful tool for studying precipitation microphysics. Various studies have found enhancements in specific differential phase Kdp in regions of suspected secondary ice production (SIP) due to rime splintering. Similar Kdp enhancements have also been found in regions of sublimating snow, another proposed SIP process. This work explores these Kdp signatures for two cases of sublimating snow using nearly collocated S- and Ka-band radars. The presence of the signature was inconsistent between the radars, prompting exploration of alternative causes. Idealized simulations are performed using a radar beam-broadening model to explore the impact of nonuniform beam filling (NBF) on the observed reflectivity Z and Kdp within the sublimation layer. Rather than an intrinsic increase in ice concentration, the observed Kdp enhancements can instead be explained by NBF in the presence of sharp vertical gradients of Z and Kdp within the sublimation zone, which results in a Kdp bias dipole. The severity of the bias is sensitive to the Z gradient and radar beamwidth and elevation angle, which explains its appearance at only one radar. In addition, differences in scanning strategies and range thresholds during QVP processing can constructively enhance these positive Kdp biases by excluding the negative portion of the dipole. These results highlight the need to consider NBF effects in regions not traditionally considered (e.g., in pure snow) due to the increased Kdp fidelity afforded by QVPs and the subsequent ramifications this has on the observability of sublimational SIP. Significance Statement: Many different processes can cause snowflakes to break apart into numerous tiny pieces, including when they evaporate into dry air. Purported evidence of this phenomenon has been seen in data from some weather radars, but we noticed it was not seen in data from others. In this work we use case studies and models to show that this signature may actually be an artifact from the radar beam becoming too big and there being too much variability of the precipitation within it. While this breakup process may actually be occurring in reality, these results suggest we may have trouble observing it with typical weather radars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates ice particle size distribution and aspect ratio φ Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dual-polarization radar retrievals through a direct comparison with two legs of observational aircraft data obtained during a winter storm case from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. In situ cloud probes, satellite, and MRMS observations illustrate that the often-observed Kdp and ZDR enhancement regions in the dendritic growth layer can either indicate a local number concentration increase of dry ice particles or the presence of ice particles mixed with a significant number of supercooled liquid droplets. Relative to in situ measurements, MRMS retrievals on average underestimated mean volume diameters by 50% and overestimated number concentrations by over 100%. IWC retrievals using ZDR and Kdp within the dendritic growth layer were minimally biased relative to in situ calculations where retrievals yielded −2% median relative error for the entire aircraft leg. Incorporating φ retrievals decreased both the magnitude and spread of polarimetric retrievals below the dendritic growth layer. While φ radar retrievals suggest that observed dendritic growth layer particles were nonspherical (0.1 ≤ φ ≤ 0.2), in situ projected aspect ratios, idealized numerical simulations, and habit classifications from cloud probe images suggest that the population mean φ was generally much higher. Coordinated aircraft radar reflectivity with in situ observations suggests that the MRMS systematically underestimated reflectivity and could not resolve local peaks in mean volume diameter sizes. These results highlight the need to consider particle assumptions and radar limitations when performing retrievals. significance statement: Developing snow is often detectable using weather radars. Meteorologists combine these radar measurements with mathematical equations to study how snow forms in order to determine how much snow will fall. This study evaluates current methods for estimating the total number and mass, sizes, and shapes of snowflakes from radar using images of individual snowflakes taken during two aircraft legs. Radar estimates of snowflake properties were most consistent with aircraft data inside regions with prominent radar signatures. However, radar estimates of snowflake shapes were not consistent with observed shapes estimated from the snowflake images. Although additional research is needed, these results bolster understanding of snow-growth physics and uncertainties between radar measurements and snow production that can improve future snowfall forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new empirical parameterization (EP) for multiple groups of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) is implemented in the aerosol–cloud model (AC) to investigate their roles as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The EP describes the heterogeneous ice nucleation by (1) fungal spores, (2) bacteria, (3) pollen, (4) detritus of plants, animals, and viruses, and (5) algae. Each group includes fragments from the originally emitted particles. A high-resolution simulation of a midlatitude mesoscale squall line by AC is validated against airborne and ground observations. Sensitivity tests are carried out by varying the initial vertical profiles of the loadings of individual PBAP groups. The resulting changes in warm and ice cloud microphysical parameters are investigated. The changes in warm microphysical parameters, including liquid water content and cloud droplet number concentration, are minimal (<10 %). Overall, PBAPs have little effect on the ice number concentration (<6 %) in the convective region. In the stratiform region, increasing the initial PBAP loadings by a factor of 1000 resulted in less than 40 % change in ice number concentrations. The total ice concentration is mostly controlled by various mechanisms of secondary ice production (SIP). However, when SIP is intentionally shut down in sensitivity tests, increasing the PBAP loading by a factor of 100 has an effect of less than 3 % on the ice phase. Further sensitivity tests revealed that PBAPs have little effect on surface precipitation and on the shortwave and longwave flux (<4 %) for a 100-fold perturbation in PBAPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new empirical parameterization (EP) for multiple groups of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) is implemented in the aerosol cloud model (AC) to investigate their roles as ice-nucleating particles (INPs). The EP describes the heterogeneous ice nucleation by (1) fungal spores, (2) bacteria, (3) pollen, (4) detritus of plants, animals, and viruses, and (5) algae. Each group includes fragments from the originally emitted particles. A high-resolution simulation of a midlatitude mesoscale squall line by AC is validated against airborne and ground observations. Sensitivity tests are carried out by varying the initial vertical profiles of the loadings of individual PBAP groups. The resulting changes in warm and ice microphysical parameters are investigated. Overall, PBAPs have little effect on the ice phase, especially in the convective region. In the stratiform region, increasing the initial PBAP loadings by a factor of 100 resulted in less than 60% change in ice number concentrations. The total ice concentration is mostly controlled by various mechanisms of secondary ice production (SIP). However, when SIP is artificially prohibited in sensitivity tests, increasing the PBAP loading by a factor of 100 has no significant effect on the ice phase. Further sensitivity tests revealed that PBAPs have little effect on surface precipitation as well as on shortwave and longwave flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensitivity experiments with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and polarimetric radar forward operator (FO) are conducted for a long-duration stratiform event over northwestern Germany to evaluate uncertainties in the partitioning of the ice water content and assumptions of hydrometeor scattering properties in the NWP model and FO, respectively. Polarimetric observations from X-band radar and retrievals of hydrometeor classifications are used for comparison with the multiple experiments in radar and model space. Modifying the critical diameter of particles for ice-to-snow conversion by aggregation (Dice) and the threshold temperature responsible for graupel production by riming (Tgr), was found to improve the synthetic polarimetric moments and simulated hydrometeor population, while keeping the difference in surface precipitation statistically insignificant at model resolvable grid scales. However, the model still exhibited a low bias (lower magnitude than observation) in simulated polarimetric moments at lower levels above the melting layer (- 3 to - 13 ∘ C) where snow was found to dominate. This necessitates further research into the missing microphysical processes in these lower levels (e.g. fragmentation due to ice–ice collisions) and use of more reliable snow-scattering models to draw valid conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensitivity experiments with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and polarimetric radar forward operator (FO) are conducted for a long-duration stratiform event over northwestern Germany, to evaluate uncertainties in the partitioning of the ice water content and assumptions of hydrometeor scattering properties in the NWP model and FO, respectively. Polarimetric observations from X-band radar and retrievals of hydrometeor classifications are used for comparison with the multiple experiments in radar and model space. Modifying two parameters (Dice and Tgr) responsible for the production of snow and graupel, respectively, was found to improve the synthetic polarimetric moments and simulated hydrometeor population, while keeping the difference in surface precipitation statistically insignificant at model resolvable grid scales. However, the model still exhibited a low bias in simulated polarimetric moments at lower levels above the melting layer (-3 to -13 °C) where snow was found to dominate. This necessitates further research into the missing microphysical processes in these lower levels (e.g., fragmentation due to ice-ice collisions), and use of more reliable snow scattering models to draw valid conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decades of research have investigated processes that contribute to downburst development, as well as identified precursor radar signatures that can accompany these events. These advancements have increased downburst predictability, but downbursts still pose a significant forecast challenge, especially in low-shear environments that produce short-lived single and multicell thunderstorms. Additional information provided by dual-polarization radar data may prove useful in anticipating downburst development. One such radar signature is the KDP core (where KDP is the specific differential phase), which can indicate processes such as melting and precipitation loading that increase negative buoyancy and can result in downburst development. Therefore, KDP cores associated with 81 different downbursts across 10 states are examined to explore if this signature could provide forecasters with a reliable and useable downburst precursor signature. The KDP core characteristics near the environmental melting layer, vertical gradients of KDP, and environmental conditions were quantified to identify any differences between downbursts of varying intensities. The analysis shows that 1) KDP cores near the environmental melting layer are a reliable signal that a downburst will develop; 2) while using KDP cores to anticipate an impending downburst's intensity is challenging, larger KDP near the melting layer and larger vertical gradients of KDP are more commonly associated with strong downbursts than weak ones; 3) downbursts occurring in environments with less favorable conditions for downbursts are associated with higher magnitude KDP cores, and 4) KDP cores evolve relatively slowly (typically longer than 15 min), which makes them easily observable with the 5-min volumetric updates currently provided by operational radars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assimilating radar reflectivity into NWP models is one of the keys to improve the accuracy of convective‐scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). There are generally two major branches of research in radar reflectivity assimilation: directly assimilating radar reflectivity, and indirectly assimilating reflectivity, i.e. assimilating hydrometeors retrieved from radar reflectivity. In this study, the indirect assimilation method based on background‐dependent hydrometeor retrievals is compared with the direct assimilation method using frequent data assimilation cycles for five real data cases. The retrieved hydrometeors in the indirect assimilation method are first verified against the hydrometeor types obtained from a polarimetric hydrometeor classification method. It is illustrated that the background‐dependent hydrometeor retrieval method can obtain reasonable model‐equivalent hydrometeors from radar reflectivity. The analysis increments for hydrometeors with both radar data assimilation methods show similar patterns but their magnitudes are different. Both quantitative and qualitative evaluations of forecasted composite reflectivities and accumulated precipitation indicate that the indirect assimilation method predicts the location and intensity of the simulated convection more accurately than the direct method. Furthermore, the indirect assimilation method is more efficient, which is valuable in real‐time applications by helping deliver forecasts quickly and thus helping forecasters make more timely warning decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intrinsic uncertainty of radar-based retrievals in snow originates from a large diversity of snow growth habits, densities, and particle size distributions, all of which can make interpreting radar measurements of snow very challenging. The application of polarimetric radar for snow measurements can mitigate some of these issues. In this study, a novel polarimetric method for quantification of the extinction coefficient and visibility in snow, based on the joint use of radar reflectivity at horizontal polarization Z and specific differential phase KDP, is introduced. A large 2D-video-disdrometer snow dataset from central Oklahoma is used to derive a polarimetric bivariate power-law relation for the extinction coefficient, σ e ⁡ (K DP , Z) = γ K DP α Z β . The relation is derived for particle aspect ratios ranging from 0.5 to 0.8 and the width of the canting angle distribution ranging from 0° to 40°, values typical of aggregated snow, and validated via theoretical and analytical derivations/simulations. The multiplier of the relation is sensitive to variations in particles' densities, the width of the canting angle distribution, and particles' aspect ratios, whereas the relation's exponents are practically invariant to changes in the latter two parameters. This novel approach is applied to polarimetric S-band WSR-88D data and verified against previous studies and in situ measurements of the extinction coefficient for four snow events in the eastern United States. The polarimetric radar estimates of the extinction coefficient exhibit smaller biases in comparison to previous studies concerning the ground measurements. The results indicate that there is good potential for reliable radar estimates of visibility from polarimetric weather radars, a parameter inversely proportional to the extinction coefficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving accurate storm-scale analyses and reducing the spinup time of modeled convection is a primary motivation for the assimilation of radar reflectivity data. One common technique of reflectivity data assimilation is using a cloud analysis, which inserts temperature and moisture increments and hydrometeors deduced from radar reflectivity via empirical relations to induce and sustain updraft circulations. Polarimetric radar data have the ability to provide enhanced insight into the microphysical and dynamic structure of convection. Thus far, however, relatively little has been done to leverage these data for numerical weather prediction. In this study, the Advanced Regional Prediction System's cloud analysis is modified from its original reflectivity-based formulation to providemoisture and latent heat adjustments based on the detection of differential reflectivity columns, which can serve as proxies for updrafts in deep moist convection and, subsequently, areas of saturation and latent heat release. Cycled model runs using both the original cloud analysis and above modifications are performed for two high-impact weather cases: the 19 May 2013 central Oklahoma tornadic supercells and the 25 May 2016 north-central Kansas tornadic supercell. The analyses and forecasts of convection qualitatively and quantitatively improve in both cases, including more coherent analyzed updrafts, more realistic forecast reflectivity structures, a better correspondence between forecast updraft helicity tracks and radar-derived rotation tracks, and improved frequency biases and equitable threat scores for reflectivity. Based on these encouraging results, further exploration of the assimilation of dual-polarization radar data into storm-scale models is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assimilation of radar data into storm-scale numerical weather prediction models has been shown to be beneficial for successfully modeling convective storms. Because of the difficulty of directly assimilating reflectivity ( Z), hydrometeor mixing ratios, and sometimes rainfall rate, are often retrieved from Z observations using retrieval relations, and are assimilated as state variables. The most limiting (although widely employed) cases of these relations are derived, and their assumptions and limitations are discussed. To investigate the utility of these retrieval relations for liquid water content (LWC) and ice water content (IWC) in rain and hail as well as the potential for improvement using polarimetric variables, two models with spectral bin microphysics coupled with a polarimetric radar operator are used: a one-dimensional melting hail model and the two-dimensional Hebrew University Cloud Model. The relationship between LWC and Z in pure rain varies spatially and temporally, with biases clearly seen using the normalized number concentration. Retrievals using Z perform the poorest while specific attenuation and specific differential phase shift ( KDP) perform much better. Within rain-hail mixtures, separate estimation of LWC and IWC is necessary. Prohibitively large errors in the retrieved LWC may result when using Z. The quantity KDP can be used to effectively retrieve the LWC and to isolate the contribution of IWC to Z. It is found that the relationship between Z and IWC is a function of radar wavelength, maximum hail diameter, and principally the height below the melting layer, which must be accounted for in order to achieve accurate retrievals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The utilization of polarimetric weather radars for optimizing cloud models is a next frontier of research. It is widely understood that inadequacies in microphysical parameterization schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is a primary cause of forecast uncertainties. Due to its ability to distinguish between hydrometeors with different microphysical habits and to identify "polarimetric fingerprints" of various microphysical processes, polarimetric radar emerges as a primary source of needed information. There are two approaches to leverage this information for NWP models: (1) radar microphysical and thermodynamic retrievals and (2) forward radar operators for converting the model outputs into the fields of polarimetric radar variables. In this paper, we will provide an overview of both. Polarimetric measurements can be combined with cloud models of varying complexity, including ones with bulk and spectral bin microphysics, as well as simplified Lagrangian models focused on a particular microphysical process. Combining polarimetric measurements with cloud modeling can reveal the impact of important microphysical agents such as aerosols or supercooled cloud water invisible to the radar on cloud and precipitation formation. Some pertinent results obtained from models with spectral bin microphysics, including the Hebrew University cloud model (HUCM) and 1D models of melting hail and snow coupled with the NSSL forward radar operator, are illustrated in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radar reflectivity contains information about hydrometeors and plays an important role in the initialization of convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, a new background-dependent hydrometeor retrieval method is proposed and retrieved hydrometeors are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with the aim of improving short-term severe weather forecasts. Compared to traditional approaches that are mostly empirical and static, the retrieval parameters for hydrometeor identification and reflectivity partitioning in the new scheme are extracted in real-time based on the background hydrometeor fields and observed radar reflectivity. It was found that the contributions of hydrometeors to reflectivity change a lot in different reflectivity ranges and heights, indicating that adaptive parameters are necessary for reflectivity partitioning and hydrometeor retrieval. The accuracy of the background-dependent hydrometeor retrieval method and its impact on the subsequent assimilation and forecast were examined through observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results show that by incorporating the background information, the retrieval accuracy was greatly improved, especially in mixed-hydrometeor regions. The assimilation of retrieved hydrometeors helped improve both the hydrometeor analyses and forecasts. With an hourly update cycling configuration, more accurate hydrometeor information was properly transferred to other model variables, such as temperature and humidity fields through the model integration, leading to an improvement of the short-term (0−3 h) precipitation forecasts. • Adaptive hydrometeor retrieval method from radar reflectivity was proposed by incorporating NWP background information. • Accuracy of the retrieved hydrometeors from the proposed scheme was greatly improved, especially in regions of mixed species. • Assimilation of retrieved hydrometeors improved the T and Q fields in forecasts, leading to better precipitation forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]