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BackgroundOur objective was to estimate the impact of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) on the use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for the management of varicella among children in the United States (US).MethodsA decision tree model of varicella vaccination, infections and treatment decisions was developed. Results were extrapolated to the 2017 population of 73.5 million US children. Model parameters were populated from published sources. Treatment decisions were derived from a survey of health care professionals' recommendations. The base case modelled current vaccination coverage rates in the US with additional scenarios analyses conducted for 0%, 20%, and 80% coverage and did not account for herd immunity benefits.ResultsOur model estimated that 551,434 varicella cases occurred annually among children ≤ 18 years in 2017. Antivirals or antibiotics were prescribed in 23.9% of cases, with unvaccinated children receiving the majority for base case. The annual cost for varicella antiviral and antibiotic treatment was approximately $14 million ($26 per case), with cases with no complications accounting for $12 million. Compared with the no vaccination scenario, the current vaccination rates resulted in savings of $181 million (94.7%) for antivirals and $78 million (95.0%) for antibiotics annually. Scenario analyses showed that higher vaccination coverage (from 0% to 80%) resulted in reduced annual expenditures for antivirals (from $191 million to $41 million), and antibiotics ($82 million to $17 million).ConclusionsUVV was associated with significant reductions in the use of antibiotics and antivirals and their associated costs in the US. Higher vaccination coverage was associated with lower use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for varicella management.

Background Our objective was to estimate the impact of universal varicella vaccination (UVV) on the use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for the management of varicella among children in the United States (US). Methods A decision tree model of varicella vaccination, infections and treatment decisions was developed. Results were extrapolated to the 2017 population of 73.5 million US children. Model parameters were populated from published sources. Treatment decisions were derived from a survey of health care professionals’ recommendations. The base case modelled current vaccination coverage rates in the US with additional scenarios analyses conducted for 0%, 20%, and 80% coverage and did not account for herd immunity benefits. Results Our model estimated that 551,434 varicella cases occurred annually among children ≤ 18 years in 2017. Antivirals or antibiotics were prescribed in 23.9% of cases, with unvaccinated children receiving the majority for base case. The annual cost for varicella antiviral and antibiotic treatment was approximately $14 million ($26 per case), with cases with no complications accounting for $12 million. Compared with the no vaccination scenario, the current vaccination rates resulted in savings of $181 million (94.7%) for antivirals and $78 million (95.0%) for antibiotics annually. Scenario analyses showed that higher vaccination coverage (from 0% to 80%) resulted in reduced annual expenditures for antivirals (from $191 million to $41 million), and antibiotics ($82 million to $17 million). Conclusions UVV was associated with significant reductions in the use of antibiotics and antivirals and their associated costs in the US. Higher vaccination coverage was associated with lower use and costs of antibiotics and antivirals for varicella management.

BackgroundIn 1995, the CDC recommended one-dose routine varicella immunization for children MethodsAn online survey of HCPs was conducted to assess recognition and management of varicella infections. Responses to eight varicella vignettes describing patients with varying varicella symptoms were analyzed and descriptive analyses performed. Stratified analysis comparing responses of those licensed before and in/after 1996 was also performed.Results153 HCPs (50 nurse practitioners, 103 doctors) completed the survey. Mean age of respondents was 44 years. 62% were female, and 82% were licensed before 1996. Varicella infection was correctly diagnosed 79% of the time. HCPs correctly recognized uncomplicated varicella vignettes 85% of the time versus 61% of the time for complicated varicella vignettes. Antibiotics were recommended 17% of the time and antivirals 18% of the time, of which 25% and 69% (respectively) were not appropriate per guidelines. HCPs licensed before 1996 were better able to recognize varicella compared to those licensed later, but prescribed more antimicrobials medications to treat varicella.ConclusionsAlthough most HCPs recognized varicella infection, a sizable proportion could not recognize cases with complications, and some of the varicella cases were inappropriately treated with antibiotics and/or antivirals. Additional HCP training and high vaccination coverage are important strategies to avoid inaccurate diagnoses and minimize unnecessary exposure to antimicrobial/antiviral therapies.

Nicole M Engel-Nitz1, Stephen D Sander2, Carolyn Harley3, Gabriel Gomez Rey1, Hemal Shah21Health Economic and Outcomes Research, i3 Innovus, Eden Prairie, MN, USA; 2Health Economic and Outcomes Research, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Ridgefield, CT, USA; 3Health Economic and Outcomes Research, i3 Innovus, Palo Alto, CA, USAPurpose: To evaluate the clinical outcomes and incremental health care costs of ischemic stroke in a US managed care population.Patients and methods: A retrospective cohort analysis was done on patients (aged 18+ years) hospitalized with noncardioembolic ischemic stroke from January 1, 2002, through ­December 31, 2003, identified from commercial health plan administrative claims. New or recurrent stroke was based on history in the previous 12 months, with index date defined as first date of ­indication of stroke. A control group without stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) was matched (1:3) on age, sex, and geographic region, with an index date defined as the first ­medical claim during the patient identification period. Patients with atrial fibrillation or mitral value abnormalities were excluded. Ischemic stroke and control cohorts were compared on 4-year clinical outcomes and 1-year costs.Results: Of 2180 ischemic stroke patients, 1808 (82.9%) had new stroke and 372 (17.1%) had a recurrent stroke. Stroke patients had higher unadjusted rates of additional stroke, TIA, and fatal outcomes compared with the 6540 matched controls. Recurrent stroke patients had higher rates of adverse clinical outcomes compared with new stroke patients; costs attributed to recurrent stroke were also higher. Stroke patients were 2.4 times more likely to be hospitalized in follow-up compared with controls (hazard ratio [HR] 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2, 2.6). Occurrence of stroke following discharge was 21 times more likely among patients with index stroke compared with controls (HR 21.0, 95% CI: 16.1, 27.3). Stroke was also predictive of death (HR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.5). Controlling for covariates, stroke patients had significantly higher costs compared with control patients in the year following the index event.Conclusion: Noncardioembolic ischemic stroke patients had significantly poorer outcomes and higher costs compared with controls. Recurrent stroke appears to contribute substantially to these higher rates of adverse outcomes and costs.Keywords: burden of illness, stroke⁄cerebrovascular accident, cardiovascular disease, claims analysis, costs of care, health care outcomes