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Variability in the stratosphere, especially extreme events such as Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs), can impact surface weather. Understanding stratospheric prediction uncertainty is therefore crucial for skillful surface weather forecasts on weekly to monthly timescales. Using ECMWF subseasonal hindcasts, this study finds that stratospheric uncertainty is most strongly linked to tropospheric uncertainty over the North Pacific and Northern Europe, regions that can modulate but also respond to stratospheric variability, suggesting a two-way propagation of uncertainty. A case study of the 2018 SSW event shows an initial poleward and upward propagation of uncertainty from tropical convection, followed by a downward propagation where ensemble members that accurately predict the SSW also better at predicting its downward impacts. These findings highlight the locations in the troposphere that are linked to stratospheric uncertainty and suggest that improved model representation of tropospheric mechanisms linked to polar vortex variability could enhance both stratospheric and extratropical surface prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar radiation modification by a sustained deliberate source of SO2 into the stratosphere (strat-SRM) has been proposed as an option for climate intervention. Global interactive aerosol–chemistry–climate models are often used to investigate the potential cooling efficiencies and associated side effects of hypothesized strat-SRM scenarios. A recent model intercomparison study for composition–climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosol suggests that the modeled climate response to a particular assumed injection strategy depends on the type of aerosol microphysical scheme used (e.g., modal or sectional representation) alongside host model resolution and transport. Compared to short-duration volcanic SO2 emissions, the continuous SO2 injections in strat-SRM scenarios may pose a greater challenge to the numerical implementation of microphysical processes such as nucleation, condensation, and coagulation. This study explores how changing the time steps and sequencing of microphysical processes in the sectional aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2 (40 mass bins) affects model-predicted climate and ozone layer impacts considering strat-SRM by SO2 injections of 5 and 25 Tg(S) yr −1 at 20 km altitude between 30° S and 30° N. The model experiments consider the year 2040 to be the boundary conditions for ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases (GHGs). We focus on the length of the microphysical time step and the call sequence of nucleation and condensation, the two competing sink processes for gaseous H2SO4. Under stratospheric background conditions, we find no effect of the microphysical setup on the simulated aerosol properties. However, at the high sulfur loadings reached in the scenarios injecting 25 Tg(S) yr −1 of SO2 with a default microphysical time step of 6 min, changing the call sequence from the default "condensation first" to "nucleation first" leads to a massive increase in the number densities of particles in the nucleation mode (R<0.01 µm) and a small decrease in coarse-mode particles (R>1 µm). As expected, the influence of the call sequence becomes negligible when the microphysical time step is reduced to a few seconds, with the model solutions converging to a size distribution with a pronounced nucleation mode. While the main features and spatial patterns of climate forcing by SO 2 injections are not strongly affected by the microphysical configuration, the absolute numbers vary considerably. For the extreme injection with 25 Tg(S) yr −1 , the simulated net global radiative forcing ranges from - 2.3 to - 5.3 Wm-2 , depending on the microphysical configuration. Nucleation first shifts the size distribution towards radii better suited for solar scattering (0.3 µm

Stratospheric ozone, and its response to anthropogenic forcings, provides an important pathway for the coupling between atmospheric composition and climate. In addition to stratospheric ozone's radiative impacts, recent studies have shown that changes in the ozone layer due to 4xCO2 have a considerable impact on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropospheric circulation, inducing an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet during boreal winter. Using simulations produced with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) high-top climate model (E2.2), we show that this equatorward shift of the Atlantic jet can induce a more rapid weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The weaker AMOC, in turn, results in an eastward acceleration and poleward shift of the Atlantic and Pacific jets, respectively, on longer time scales. As such, coupled feedbacks from both stratospheric ozone and the AMOC result in a two-time-scale response of the NH midlatitude jet to abrupt 4xCO2 forcing: a "fast" response (5–20 years) during which it shifts equatorward and a "total" response (∼100–150 years) during which the jet accelerates and shifts poleward. The latter is driven by a weakening of the AMOC that develops in response to weaker surface zonal winds that result in reduced heat fluxes out of the subpolar gyre and reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Our results suggest that stratospheric ozone changes in the lower stratosphere can have a surprisingly powerful effect on the AMOC, independent of other aspects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of general circulation models are adapting interactive sulfur and aerosol schemes to improve the representation of relevant physical and chemical processes and associated feedbacks. They are motivated by investigations of climate response to major volcanic eruptions and potential solar geoengineering scenarios. However, uncertainties in these schemes are not well constrained. Stratospheric sulfate is modulated by emissions of sulfur-containing species of anthropogenic and natural origin, including volcanic activity. While the effects of volcanic eruptions have been studied in the framework of global model intercomparisons, the background conditions of the sulfur cycle have not been addressed in such a way. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing the distribution of the main sulfur species in nine global atmospheric aerosol models for a volcanically quiescent period. We use observational data to evaluate model results. Overall, models agree that the three dominant sulfur species in terms of burdens (sulfate aerosol, OCS, and SO 2) make up about 98 % stratospheric sulfur and 95 % tropospheric sulfur. However, models vary considerably in the partitioning between these species. Models agree that anthropogenic emission of SO 2 strongly affects the sulfate aerosol burden in the northern hemispheric troposphere, while its importance is very uncertain in other regions, where emissions are much lower. Sulfate aerosol is the main deposited species in all models, but the values deviate by a factor of 2. Additionally, the partitioning between wet and dry deposition fluxes is highly model dependent. Inter-model variability in the sulfur species is low in the tropics and increases towards the poles. Differences are largest in the dynamically active northern hemispheric extratropical region and could be attributed to the representation of the stratospheric circulation. The differences in the atmospheric sulfur budget among the models arise from the representation of both chemical and dynamical processes, whose interplay complicates the bias attribution. Several problematic points identified for individual models are related to the specifics of the chemistry schemes, model resolution, and representation of cross-tropopause transport in the extratropics. Further model intercomparison research is needed with a focus on the clarification of the reasons for biases, given the importance of this topic for the stratospheric aerosol injection studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sulfur‐based stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) can cool the climate, but also heats the tropical lower stratosphere if done with injections at low latitudes. We explore the role of this heating in the climate response to SAI, by using mechanistic experiments that remove the effects of longwave absorption of sulfate aerosols above the tropopause. If longwave absorption by stratospheric aerosols is disabled, the heating of the tropical tropopause and most of the related side effects are strongly alleviated and the cooling per Tg‐S injected is 40% bigger. Such side‐effects include the poleward expansion of eddy‐driven jets, acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, and delay of Antarctic ozone recovery. Our results add to other recent findings on SAI side effects and demonstrate that SAI scenarios with low‐latitude injections of absorptive materials may result in atmospheric effects and regional climate changes that are comparable to those produced by the CO2 warming signal. Plain Language Summary: We explore the effects of the injection of sulfur into the tropical stratosphere to lower global average temperatures from those projected under a high‐emission greenhouse gas scenario to the levels of a mid‐emission scenario. We found that some detrimental effects of this injection are of a similar magnitude to those from climate change itself in some regions. This includes a strong warming 15 km above the tropics, which alters large‐scale weather patterns in the atmosphere. In comparison to the mid‐emission scenario, we find enhanced surface warming in the polar regions and modification in regional precipitation patterns over land, therefore not completely alleviating the warming of the high‐emission scenario in high northern latitudes. We show that the tropical stratospheric heating is responsible for a large portion of these side effects on tropospheric climate. Key Points: Many side effects of sulfur‐based stratospheric aerosol intervention are caused by heating of the tropical lower stratosphereSome regional patterns of change tied to atmospheric circulation can be of the same magnitude as those that are CO2‐drivenThe absorptivity of the aerosol particles increases their lifetime but decreases their cooling efficiency per Tg‐S per year by 40% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared to stratospheric SO2 injection for climate intervention, alumina particle injection could reduce stratospheric warming and associated adverse impacts. However, heterogeneous chemistry on alumina particles, especially chlorine activation via ClONO2+HCl→surfCl2+HNO3 ${\text{ClONO}}_{2}+\text{HCl}\stackrel{\text{surf}}{\to }{\text{Cl}}_{2}+{\text{HNO}}_{3}$, is poorly constrained under stratospheric conditions, such as low temperature and humidity. This study quantifies the uncertainty in modeling the ozone response to alumina injection. We show that extrapolating the limited experimental data for ClONO2 + HCl to stratospheric conditions leads to uncertainties in heterogeneous reaction rates of almost two orders of magnitude. Implementation of injection of 5 Mt/yr of particles with 240 nm radius in an aerosol‐chemistry‐climate model shows that resulting global total ozone depletions range between negligible and as large as 9%, that is more than twice the loss caused by chlorofluorocarbons, depending on assumptions on the degree of dissociation and interaction of the acids HCl, HNO3, and H2SO4 on the alumina surface. Plain Language Summary: Global warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases could be temporarily reduced by introducing aerosol particles into the stratosphere. The most frequently studied approach to climate intervention uses H2SO4‐H2O aerosols, which, however, could result in undesirably strong warming of the stratosphere and significant ozone depletion. This might be improved by injecting solid particles, for example, made of aluminum oxide. However, here we show that the extremely limited availability of experimental studies on heterogeneous chemistry on alumina under the influence of stratospheric concentrations of HCl, HNO3, H2SO4, and H2O leads to large uncertainties in the impact of alumina injection on stratospheric ozone. In order to quantify these uncertainties, we integrated the currently available knowledge about the most important heterogeneous reaction ClONO2+HCl→surfCl2+HNO3 ${\text{ClONO}}_{2}+\text{HCl}\stackrel{\text{surf}}{\to }{\text{Cl}}_{2}+{\text{HNO}}_{3}$ into an aerosol‐chemistry‐climate model. We conclude that the uncertainty in the resulting heterogeneous reaction rate is more than two orders of magnitude depending on the partitioning of HCl, H2SO4, and HNO3 on the alumina surface. This could lead to global ozone column depletion ranging between almost negligible and up to 9%, which would be more than twice as much as the ozone loss caused by chlorofluorocarbons in the late 1990s. Key Points: Heterogeneous chemistry on solid alumina particles is highly uncertain and depends strongly on the partitioning of acids onto the surfaceThe reaction rate of ClONO2 with HCl on alumina particles is uncertain by up to two orders of magnitude under stratospheric conditionsInjection of 5 Mt/yr of alumina particles could double global ozone reductions compared to chlorofluorocarbons in the late 1990s [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Montreal Protocol and its amendments (MPA) have been a huge success in preserving the stratospheric ozone layer from being destroyed by unabated chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions. The phaseout of CFCs has not only prevented serious impacts on our health and climate, but also avoided strong alterations of atmospheric circulation patterns. With the Earth system model SOCOLv4, we study the dynamical and climatic impacts of a scenario with unabated CFC emissions by 2100, disentangling radiative and chemical (ozone-mediated) effects of CFCs. In the stratosphere, chemical effects of CFCs (i.e., the resulting ozone loss) are the main drivers of circulation changes, weakening wintertime polar vortices and speeding up the Brewer–Dobson circulation. These dynamical impacts during wintertime are due to low-latitude ozone depletion and the resulting reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Westerly winds in the lower stratosphere strengthen, which is for the Southern Hemisphere (SH) similar to the effects of the Antarctic ozone hole over the second half of the 20th century. Furthermore, the winter and spring stratospheric wind variability increases in the SH, whereas it decreases in summer and fall. This seasonal variation in wind speed in the stratosphere has substantial implications for the major modes of variability in the tropospheric circulation in the scenario without the MPA (No-MPA). We find coherent changes in the troposphere, such as patterns that are reminiscent of negative Southern and Northern Annular modes (SAM and NAM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies during seasons with a weakened vortex (winter and spring); the opposite occurs during seasons with strengthened westerlies in the lower stratosphere and troposphere (summer). In the troposphere, radiative heating by CFCs prevails throughout the year, shifting the SAM into a positive phase and canceling out the ozone-induced effects on the NAO, whereas the North Pacific sector shows an increase in the meridional sea-level pressure gradient as both CFC heating and ozone-induced effects reinforce each other there. Furthermore, global warming is amplified by 1.7 K with regionally up to a 12 K increase over eastern Canada and the western Arctic. Our study sheds light on the adverse effects of a non-adherence to the MPA on the global atmospheric circulation, uncovering the roles of the underlying physical mechanisms. In so doing, our study emphasizes the importance of the MPA for Earth's climate to avoid regional amplifications of negative climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the mid-century due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in regulating the emission of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the Arctic, ozone abundances are projected to surpass historical levels due to the combined effect of decreasing ODSs and elevated greenhouse gases (GHGs). While long-term changes in stratospheric ozone have been shown to be a major driver of future surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere during summertime, the dynamical and climatic impacts of elevated ozone levels in the Arctic have not been investigated. In this study, we use two chemistry climate models (the SOlar Climate Ozone Links – Max Planck Ocean Model (SOCOL-MPIOM) and the Community Earth System Model – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM)) to assess the climatic impacts of future changes in Arctic ozone on stratospheric dynamics and surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 21st century. Under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) examined in this work, Arctic ozone returns to pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century. Thereby, the increase in Arctic ozone in this scenario warms the lower Arctic stratosphere; reduces the strength of the polar vortex, advancing its breakdown; and weakens the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The ozone-induced changes in springtime generally oppose the effects of GHGs on the polar vortex. In the troposphere, future changes in Arctic ozone induce a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, pushing the jet equatorward over the North Atlantic. These impacts of future ozone changes on NH surface climate are smaller than the effects of GHGs, but they are remarkably robust among the two models employed in this study, canceling out a portion of the GHG effects (up to 20 % over the Arctic). In the stratosphere, Arctic ozone changes cancel out a much larger fraction of the GHG-induced signal (up to 50 %–100 %), resulting in no overall change in the projected springtime stratospheric northern annular mode and a reduction in the GHG-induced delay of vortex breakdown of around 15 d. Taken together, our results indicate that future changes in Arctic ozone actively shape the projected changes in the stratospheric circulation and their coupling to the troposphere, thereby playing an important and previously unrecognized role as a driver of the large-scale atmospheric circulation response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar radiation management as a sustained deliberate source of SO2 into the stratosphere (strat-SRM) has been proposed as an option for climate intervention. Global interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate models are often used to investigate the potential cooling efficiencies and side effects of hypothesised strat-SRM scenarios. A recent strat-SRM model intercomparison study for composition-climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosol suggests that the modelled climate response to a particular assumed injection strategy, depends on the type of aerosol microphysical scheme used (e.g., modal or sectional representation), alongside also host model resolution and transport. Compared to short-duration volcanic SO2 emission, the continuous SO2 injections in strat-SRM scenarios may pose a greater challenge to the numerical implementation of of microphysical processes such as nucleation, condensation, and coagulation. This study explores how changing the timesteps and sequencing of microphysical processes in the sectional aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AERv2 (40 size bins) affect model predicted climate and ozone layer impacts considering strat-SRM SO2 injections of of 5 and 25 Tg(S) yr-1 at 20 km altitude between 30° S and 30° N. The model experiments consider year 2040 boundary conditions for ozone depleting substances and green house gases. We focus on the length of the microphysical timestep and the call sequence of nucleation and condensation, the two competing sink processes for gaseous H2SO4. Under stratospheric background conditions, we find no effect of the microphysical setup on the simulated aerosol properties. However, at the high sulfur loadings reached in the scenarios injecting 25 Mt/yr of sulfur with a default microphysical timesetp of 6 min, changing the call sequence from the default 'condensation first' to 'nucleation first' leads to a massive increase in the number densities of particles in the nucleation mode (R < 0.01 μm) and a small decrease in coarse mode particles (R > 1 μm). As expected, the influence of the call sequence becomes negligible when the microphysical timestep is reduced to a few seconds, with the model solutions converging to a size distribution with a pronounced nucleation mode. While the main features and spatial patterns of climate forcing by SO2 injections are not strongly affected by the microphysical configuration, the absolute numbers vary considerably. For the extreme injection with 25 Tg(S) yr-1, the simulated net global radiative forcing ranges from -2.3 W m-2 to -5.3 W m-2, depending on the microphysical configuration. "Nucleation first" shifts the size distribution towards radii better suited for solar scattering (0.3 μm < R < 0.4 μm), enhancing the intervention efficiency. The size-distribution shift however generates more ultra-fine aerosol particles, increasing the surface area density, resulting in 10 DU less ozone (about 3 % of total column) in the northern midlatitudes and 20 DU less ozone (6 %) over the polar caps, compared to the 'condensation first' approach. Our results suggest that a reasonably short microphysical time step of 2 minutes or less must be applied to accurately capture the magnitude of the H2SO2 supersaturation resulting from SO2 injection scenarios or volcanic eruptions. Taken together these results underscore how structural aspects of model representation of aerosol microphysical processes become important under conditions of elevated stratospheric sulfur in determining atmospheric chemistry and climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Arctic stratosphere, the combination of chemical ozone depletion by halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) and dynamic fluctuations can lead to severe ozone minima. These Arctic ozone minima are of great societal concern due to their health and climate impacts. Owing to the success of the Montreal Protocol, hODSs in the stratosphere are gradually declining, resulting in a recovery of the ozone layer. On the other hand, continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cool the stratosphere, possibly enhancing the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and, thus, enabling more efficient chemical ozone destruction. Other processes, such as the acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, also affect stratospheric temperatures, further complicating the picture. Therefore, it is currently unclear whether major Arctic ozone minima will still occur at the end of the 21st century despite decreasing hODSs. We have examined this question for different emission pathways using simulations conducted within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1 and CCMI-2022) and found large differences in the models' ability to simulate the magnitude of ozone minima in the present-day climate. Models with a generally too-cold polar stratosphere (cold bias) produce pronounced ozone minima under present-day climate conditions because they simulate more PSCs and, thus, high concentrations of active chlorine species (ClOx). These models predict the largest decrease in ozone minima in the future. Conversely, models with a warm polar stratosphere (warm bias) have the smallest sensitivity of ozone minima to future changes in hODS and GHG concentrations. As a result, the scatter among models in terms of the magnitude of Arctic spring ozone minima will decrease in the future. Overall, these results suggest that Arctic ozone minima will become weaker over the next decades, largely due to the decline in hODS abundances. We note that none of the models analysed here project a notable increase of ozone minima in the future. Stratospheric cooling caused by increasing GHG concentrations is expected to play a secondary role as its effect in the Arctic stratosphere is weakened by opposing radiative and dynamical mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere is an important climate driver, causing solar dimming in the years after major volcanic eruptions. Hence, a growing number of general circulation models are adapting interactive sulfur and aerosol schemes to improve the representation of relevant chemical processes and associated feedbacks. However, uncertainties of these schemes are not well constrained. Stratospheric sulfate is modulated by natural emissions of sulfur-containing species, including volcanic eruptive, and anthropogenic emissions. Model intercomparisons have examined the effects of volcanic eruptions, whereas the background conditions of the sulfur cycle have not been addressed in a global model intercomparison project. Assessing background conditions in global models allows us to identify model discrepancies as they are masked by large perturbations such as volcanic eruptions, yet may still matter in the aftermath of such a disturbance. Here, we analyze the atmospheric burden, seasonal cycle, and vertical and meridional distribution of the main sulfur species among nine global atmospheric aerosol models that are widely used in the stratospheric aerosol research community. We use observational and reanalysis data to evaluate model results. Overall, models agree that the three dominant sulfur species in terms of burdens (sulfate aerosol, OCS, and SO2) make up about 98 % of stratospheric sulfur and 95 % of tropospheric sulfur. However, models vary considerably in the partitioning between these species. Models agree that anthropogenic emission of SO2 strongly affects the sulfate aerosol burden in the Northern Hemispheric troposphere, while its importance is very uncertain in other regions. The total deposition of sulfur varies among models, deviating by a factor of two, but models agree that sulfate aerosol is the main form in which sulfur is deposited. Additionally, the partitioning between wet and dry deposition fluxes is highly model dependent. We investigate the areas of greatest variability in the sulfur species burdens and find that inter-model variability is low in the tropics and increases towards the poles. Seasonality in the southern hemisphere is depicted very similar among models. Differences are largest in the dynamically active northern hemispheric extratropical region, hence some of the differences could be attributed to the differences in the representation of the stratospheric circulation among underlying general circulation models. This study highlights that the differences in the atmospheric sulfur budget among the models arise from the representation of both chemical and dynamical processes, whose interplay complicates the bias attribution. Several problematic points identified for individual models are related to the specifics of the chemistry schemes, model resolution, and representation of cross-tropopause transport in the extratropics. Further model intercomparison research is needed focusing on the clarification of the reasons for biases, given also the importance of this topic for the stratospheric aerosol injection studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by mid-century due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in regulating the emission of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the Arctic, ozone abundances are projected to surpass historical levels due to the combined effect of decreasing ODSs and elevated greenhouse gases (GHGs). While ozone recovery has been shown to be a major driver of future surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere during summertime, the dynamical and climatic impacts of elevated ozone levels in the Arctic have not been investigated. In this study, we use two chemistry climate models (SOCOL-MPIOM and CESM-WACCM) to assess the climatic impacts of Arctic ozone recovery on stratospheric dynamics and surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 21st century. Under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) examined in this work, Arctic ozone returns to pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century. Thereby, it warms the lower Arctic stratosphere, reduces the strength of the polar vortex, advancing its breakdown, and weakening the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In the troposphere, Arctic ozone recovery induces a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, pushing the jet equatorward over the Atlantic. These impacts of ozone recovery in the NH are smaller than the effects of GHGs, but they are remarkably robust among the two models employed in this study, cancelling out some of the GHG effects. Taken together, our results indicate that Arctic ozone recovery actively shapes the projected changes in the stratospheric circulation and their coupling to the troposphere, thereby playing an important and previously unrecognized role as driver of the large-scale atmospheric circulation response to climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinating framework, started in 2010, that includes a series of standardized climate model experiments aimed at understanding the physical processes and projected impacts of solar geoengineering. Numerous experiments have been conducted, and numerous more have been proposed as "test-bed" experiments, spanning a variety of geoengineering techniques aimed at modifying the planetary radiation budget: stratospheric aerosol injection, marine cloud brightening, surface albedo modification, cirrus cloud thinning, and sunshade mirrors. To date, more than 100 studies have been published that used results from GeoMIP simulations. Here we provide a critical assessment of GeoMIP and its experiments. We discuss its successes and missed opportunities, for instance in terms of which experiments elicited more interest from the scientific community and which did not, and the potential reasons why that happened. We also discuss the knowledge that GeoMIP has contributed to the field of geoengineering research and climate science as a whole: what have we learned in terms of intermodel differences, robustness of the projected outcomes for specific geoengineering methods, and future areas of model development that would be necessary in the future? We also offer multiple examples of cases where GeoMIP experiments were fundamental for international assessments of climate change. Finally, we provide a series of recommendations, regarding both future experiments and more general activities, with the goal of continuously deepening our understanding of the effects of potential geoengineering approaches and reducing uncertainties in climate outcomes, important for assessing wider impacts on societies and ecosystems. In doing so, we refine the purpose of GeoMIP and outline a series of criteria whereby GeoMIP can best serve its participants, stakeholders, and the broader science community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Montreal Protocol and its amendments (MPA) have been a huge success in preserving the stratospheric ozone layer from being destroyed by unabated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) emissions. The phase out of CFCs has not only prevented serious impacts on our health and climate, but also avoided strong alterations of atmospheric circulation patterns. With the Earth System Model SOCOLv4, we study the dynamical and climatic impacts of a scenario with unabated CFC emissions by 2100, disentangling radiative and chemical (ozone-mediated) effects of CFCs. In the stratosphere, chemical effects of CFCs (i.e. the resulting ozone loss) are the main drivers of circulation changes, weakening wintertime polar vortices and speeding up the Brewer-Dobson circulation. These dynamical impacts during wintertime are due to low-latitude ozone depletion and resulting reduction of the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer, the vortex strengthens, similar due to the effects of the Antarctic ozone hole over the second half of the 20th century. Furthermore, the winter and spring vortex variability increases in the SH, whereas it decreases in summer and fall. This seasonal variation of wind speed in the stratosphere has regional implications on the tropospheric circulation modes. We find coherent changes in the troposphere, such as negative Southern Annular mode (SAM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during seasons with a weaker vortex (winter and spring); the opposite occurs during seasons with stronger westerlies in the stratosphere (summer). In the troposphere, radiative heating by CFCs prevails throughout the year, shifting the SAM into a positive phase and canceling out the ozone-induced effects on the NAO. Furthermore, global warming is amplified by 1.9 K with regionally up to 12 K increase over Eastern Canada and Western Arctic. Our study sheds light into the adverse effects of a non-adherence to the MPA on the global atmospheric circulation, uncovering the roles of the underlying physical mechanisms. In so doing, our study emphasizes the importance of the MPA for Earth's climate, to avoid regional amplifications of negative climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinating framework, started in 2010, that includes a series of standardized climate model experiments aimed at understanding the physical processes and projected impacts of solar geoengineering. Numerous experiments have been conducted, and numerous more have been proposed as "testbed' experiments, spanning a variety of geoengineering techniques aimed at modifying the planetary radiation budget: stratospheric aerosol injection, marine cloud brightening, surface albedo modification, cirrus cloud thinning and sunshade mirrors. To date, more than one hundred studies have been published that used results from GeoMIP simulations. Here we provide a critical assessment of GeoMIP and its experiments. We discuss its successes and missed opportunities, for instance in terms of which experiments elicited more interest from the scientific community and which didn't, and the potential reasons why that happened. We also discuss the knowledge that GeoMIP has contributed to the field of geoengineering research and climate science as a whole: what have we learned in terms of inter-model differences, robustness of the projected outcomes for specific geoengineering methods and future areas of models' development that would be necessary in the future. We also offer multiple examples of cases where GeoMIP experiments were fundamental for international assessments of climate change. Finally, we provide a series of recommendations, regarding both future experiments and more general activities, with the goal of continuously deepening our understanding of the effects of potential geoengineering approaches, as well as reducing uncertainties in climate outcomes, important for assessing wider impacts on societies and ecosystems. In doing so, we refine the purpose of GeoMIP and outline a series of criteria whereby GeoMIP can best serve its participants, stakeholders, and the broader science community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme events in the stratospheric polar vortex can lead to changes in the tropospheric circulation and impact the surface climate on a wide range of timescales. The austral stratospheric vortex shows its largest variability in spring, and a weakened polar vortex is associated with changes in the spring to summer surface climate, including hot and dry extremes in Australia. However, the robustness and extent of the connection between polar vortex strength and surface climate on interannual timescales remain unclear. We assess this relationship by using reanalysis data and time-slice simulations from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs), building on previous work that is mainly based on observations. The CCMs show a similar downward propagation of anomalies in the polar vortex strength to the reanalysis data: a weak polar vortex is on average followed by a negative tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in spring to summer, while a strong polar vortex is on average followed by a positive SAM. The signature in the surface climate following polar vortex weakenings is characterized by high surface pressure and warm temperature anomalies over Antarctica, the region where surface signals are most robust across all model and observational datasets. However, the tropospheric SAM response in the two CCMs considered is inconsistent with observations. In one CCM, the SAM is more negative compared to the reanalysis after weak polar vortex events, whereas in the other CCM, it is less negative. In addition, neither model reproduces all the regional changes in midlatitudes, such as the warm and dry anomalies over Australia. We find that these inconsistencies are linked to model biases in the basic state, such as the latitude of the eddy-driven jet and the persistence of the SAM. These results are largely corroborated by models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Furthermore, bootstrapping of the data reveals sizable uncertainty in the magnitude of the surface signals in both models and observations due to internal variability. Our results demonstrate that anomalies of the austral stratospheric vortex have significant impacts on surface climate, although the ability of models to capture regional effects across the Southern Hemisphere is limited by biases in their representation of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ozone in the Arctic stratosphere is subject to large interannual variability, driven by both chemical ozone depletion and dynamical variability. Anomalies in Arctic stratospheric ozone become particularly important in spring, when returning sunlight allows them to alter stratospheric temperatures via shortwave heating, thus modifying atmospheric dynamics. At the same time, the stratospheric circulation undergoes a transition in spring with the final stratospheric warming (FSW), which marks the end of winter. A causal link between stratospheric ozone anomalies and FSWs is plausible and might increase the predictability of stratospheric and tropospheric responses on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. However, it remains to be fully understood how ozone influences the timing and evolution of the springtime vortex breakdown. Here, we contrast results from chemistry climate models with and without interactive ozone chemistry to quantify the impact of ozone anomalies on the timing of the FSW and its effects on surface climate. We find that ozone feedbacks increase the variability in the timing of the FSW, especially in the lower stratosphere. In ozone-deficient springs, a persistent strong polar vortex and a delayed FSW in the lower stratosphere are partly due to the lack of heating by ozone in that region. High-ozone anomalies, on the other hand, result in additional shortwave heating in the lower stratosphere, where the FSW therefore occurs earlier. We further show that FSWs in high-ozone springs are predominantly followed by a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the Arctic and cold anomalies over Eurasia and Europe. These conditions are to a significant extent (at least 50 %) driven by ozone. In contrast, FSWs in low-ozone springs are not associated with a discernible surface climate response. These results highlight the importance of ozone–circulation coupling in the climate system and the potential value of interactive ozone chemistry for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ozone in the Arctic stratosphere is subject to large interannual variability, driven by both chemical ozone depletion and dynamical variability. Anomalies in Arctic stratospheric ozone become particularly important in spring, when returning sunlight allows them to alter stratospheric temperatures via shortwave heating, thus modifying atmospheric dynamics. At the same time, the stratospheric circulation undergoes a transition in spring with the Stratospheric Final Warming (FSW), which marks the end of winter. A causal link between stratospheric ozone anomalies and FSWs is plausible and might increase the predictability of stratospheric and tropospheric responses on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. However, it remains to be fully understood how ozone influences the timing and evolution of the springtime vortex breakdown. Here, we contrast results from chemistry climate models with and without interactive ozone chemistry to quantify the impact of ozone anomalies on the timing of the FSW and its effects on surface climate. We find that ozone feedbacks increase the variability in the timing of the FSW, especially in the lower stratosphere. In ozone-deficient springs, a persistent strong polar vortex and a delayed FSWin the lower stratosphere are partly due to lacking heating by ozone in that region. High ozone anomalies, on the other hand, result in additional shortwave heating in the lower stratosphere, where the FSW therefore occurs earlier. We further show that FSWs in high ozone springs are predominantly followed by a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the Arctic and cold anomalies over Eurasia and Europe. These conditions are to a significant extent (at least 50%) driven by ozone. In contrast, FSWs in low ozone springs are not associated with a discernible surface climate response. These results highlight the importance of ozone-circulation coupling in the climate system and the potential value of interactive ozone chemistry for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global warming potential of Ozone‐depleting substances (ODS) has long been known to be thousands of times larger than the one of CO2, but their climate impacts as greenhouse gases, i.e. unmediated ozone depletion, has received relatively little attention. Focusing on the period 1955–2005, we here present results from offline radiative forcing (RF) calculations from a global chemistry climate model. Using realistic distributions of ODS and consistent stratospheric ozone, we show that ODS dominate the adjusted stratospheric warming of the lower stratosphere, where CO2 has little radiative impact. We also show that the global mean RF of stratospheric ozone only cancels a fraction of the RF of ODS, leaving an important ODS contribution to anthropogenic forcing. Finally we show that the RF of ODS opposes Arctic amplification, its equator‐to‐pole gradient being larger than the one of CO2. Plain Language Summary: In the decades following World War II, organic compounds of chlorine and bromine, widely used in refrigerators and spray cans, entered the atmosphere and led to the formation of the ozone hole. However, these compounds, are also powerful greenhouse gases and are important for global warming. Here we study their warming effects in the stratosphere and at the surface. We find that, over the period 1955–2005, they were the dominant atmospheric gas warming the tropical lower stratosphere, where CO2 is largely inactive; that their surface warming effect (their radiative forcing) amounted to approximately one third of the CO2 value, even after accounting for reductions due to the ozone depletion they induce; and, finally that, even more than CO2, their radiative effects warmed the equatorial more the polar regions and, as such, cannot be the reason why the Arctic is warming more than the rest of the planet. Key Points: The radiative effect of Ozone‐depleting substances on lower stratospheric temperatures is the largest of all well‐mixed greenhouse gasesTheir radiative forcing is only partially (∼25%) canceled by the stratospheric ozone depletion they induceTheir radiative forcing is weaker at the pole than at the equator opposing Arctic amplification even more than CO2 forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme events in the stratospheric polar vortex can lead to changes in the tropospheric circulation and impact the surface climate on a wide range of timescales. The austral stratospheric vortex shows its largest variability in spring, and a weakened polar vortex is associated with changes in the spring to summer surface climate, including hot and dry extremes in Australia. However, the robustness and extent of the connection between polar vortex strength and surface climate on interannual timescales remain unclear. We assess this relationship by using reanalysis data and simulations from two independent chemistry-climate models (CCMs), building on previous work that is mainly based on observations. The CCMs show a similar downward propagation of polar vortex anomalies as the reanalysis data and weak (strong) polar vortex anomalies are on average followed by a negative (positive) tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in spring to summer. The signature in the surface climate following polar vortex weakenings is characterized by high surface pressure and warm temperature anomalies over Antarctica, the region where surface signals are most robust across all model and observational datasets. However, the tropospheric SAM response in the models is inconsistent with observations. In one CCM, the SAM is more negative compared to the reanalysis after weak polar vortex events, whereas in the other CCM, it is less negative. In addition, both models do not reproduce all the regional changes in midlatitudes, such as the warm and dry anomalies over Australia. We find that these inconsistencies are linked to model biases in the basic state, such as the latitude of the eddy-driven jet and the persistence of the tropospheric SAM. Furthermore, bootstrapping of the data reveals sizable uncertainty in the magnitude of the surface signals in both models and observations due to internal variability. Our results demonstrate that anomalies of the austral stratospheric vortex have significant impacts on surface climate, although the ability of models in capturing regional effects across the Southern Hemisphere is limited by biases in their representation of the tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of stratospheric solar geoengineering have tended to focus on modification of the sulfuric acid aerosol layer, and almost all climate model experiments that mechanistically increase the sulfuric acid aerosol burden assume injection of SO 2. A key finding from these model studies is that the radiative forcing would increase sublinearly with increasing SO 2 injection because most of the added sulfur increases the mass of existing particles, resulting in shorter aerosol residence times and aerosols that are above the optimal size for scattering. Injection of SO 3 or H 2 SO 4 from an aircraft in stratospheric flight is expected to produce particles predominantly in the accumulation-mode size range following microphysical processing within an expanding plume, and such injection may result in a smaller average stratospheric particle size, allowing a given injection of sulfur to produce more radiative forcing. We report the first multi-model intercomparison to evaluate this approach, which we label AM-H 2 SO 4 injection. A coordinated multi-model experiment designed to represent this SO 3 - or H 2 SO 4 -driven geoengineering scenario was carried out with three interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models: the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) atmospheric configuration, the Max-Planck Institute's middle atmosphere version of ECHAM5 with the HAM microphysical module (MAECHAM5-HAM) and ETH's SOlar Climate Ozone Links with AER microphysics (SOCOL-AER) coordinated as a test-bed experiment within the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The intercomparison explores how the injection of new accumulation-mode particles changes the large-scale particle size distribution and thus the overall radiative and dynamical response to stratospheric sulfur injection. Each model used the same injection scenarios testing AM-H 2 SO 4 and SO 2 injections at 5 and 25 Tg(S) yr -1 to test linearity and climate response sensitivity. All three models find that AM-H 2 SO 4 injection increases the radiative efficacy, defined as the radiative forcing per unit of sulfur injected, relative to SO 2 injection. Increased radiative efficacy means that when compared to the use of SO 2 to produce the same radiative forcing, AM-H 2 SO 4 emissions would reduce side effects of sulfuric acid aerosol geoengineering that are proportional to mass burden. The model studies were carried out with two different idealized geographical distributions of injection mass representing deployment scenarios with different objectives, one designed to force mainly the midlatitudes by injecting into two grid points at 30 ∘ N and 30 ∘ S, and the other designed to maximize aerosol residence time by injecting uniformly in the region between 30 ∘ S and 30 ∘ N. Analysis of aerosol size distributions in the perturbed stratosphere of the models shows that particle sizes evolve differently in response to concentrated versus dispersed injections depending on the form of the injected sulfur (SO 2 gas or AM-H 2 SO 4 particulate) and suggests that prior model results for concentrated injection of SO 2 may be strongly dependent on model resolution. Differences among models arise from differences in aerosol formulation and differences in model dynamics, factors whose interplay cannot be easily untangled by this intercomparison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper features the new atmosphere–ocean–aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOlar Climate Ozone Links (SOCOL) v4.0, and its validation. The new model was built by interactively coupling the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) (T63, L47) with the chemistry (99 species) and size-resolving (40 bins) sulfate aerosol microphysics modules from the aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv2. We evaluate its performance against reanalysis products and observations of atmospheric circulation, temperature, and trace gas distribution, with a focus on stratospheric processes. We show that SOCOLv4.0 captures the low- and midlatitude stratospheric ozone well in terms of the climatological state, variability and evolution. The model provides an accurate representation of climate change, showing a global surface warming trend consistent with observations as well as realistic cooling in the stratosphere caused by greenhouse gas emissions, although, as in previous model versions, a too-fast residual circulation and exaggerated mixing in the surf zone are still present. The stratospheric sulfur budget for moderate volcanic activity is well represented by the model, albeit with slightly underestimated aerosol lifetime after major eruptions. The presence of the interactive ocean and a successful representation of recent climate and ozone layer trends make SOCOLv4.0 ideal for studies devoted to future ozone evolution and effects of greenhouse gases and ozone-destroying substances, as well as the evaluation of potential solar geoengineering measures through sulfur injections. Potential further model improvements could be to increase the vertical resolution, which is expected to allow better meridional transport in the stratosphere, as well as to update the photolysis calculation module and budget of mesospheric odd nitrogen. In summary, this paper demonstrates that SOCOLv4.0 is well suited for applications related to the stratospheric ozone and sulfate aerosol evolution, including its participation in ongoing and future model intercomparison projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic amplification (AA) of surface warming is a prominent feature of anthropogenic climate change with important implications for human and natural systems. Despite its importance, the underlying causes of AA are not fully understood. Here, analyzing coupled climate model simulations, we show that AA develops rapidly (within the first few months) following an instantaneous quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. This rapid AA response—which occurs before any significant loss of Arctic sea ice—is produced by a positive lapse rate feedback over the Arctic. Sea ice loss is therefore not needed to produce polar‐amplified warming, although it contributes significantly to this warming after the first few months. Our results provide new and compelling evidence that AA owes its existence, fundamentally, to fast atmospheric processes. Plain Language Summary: Climate warming is greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Despite its importance for humans and ecosystems, the causes of Arctic amplification are not fully understood. Sea ice loss has long been thought to be a primary cause. However, we show here that Arctic amplification happens faster than sea ice loss in climate models when atmospheric CO2 is increased. This indicates that atmospheric processes alone are capable of causing Arctic amplification. Key Points: Arctic amplification develops rapidly (within a few months) in climate models forced with abrupt CO2 quadruplingThis rapid response is produced by a positive lapse rate feedback over the ArcticThe response occurs before Arctic sea ice loss becomes significant [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling and observational studies have reported effects of stratospheric ozone extremes on Northern Hemisphere spring climate. Recent work has further suggested that the coupling of ozone chemistry and dynamics amplifies the surface response to midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here we study the importance of interactive ozone chemistry in representing the stratospheric polar vortex and Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate variability. We contrast two simulations from the interactive and specified chemistry (and thus ozone) versions of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, which is designed to isolate the impact of interactive ozone on polar vortex variability. In particular, we analyze the response with and without interactive chemistry to midwinter SSWs, March SSWs, and strong polar vortex events (SPVs). With interactive chemistry, the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger and more SPVs occur, but we find little effect on the frequency of midwinter SSWs. At the surface, interactive chemistry results in a pattern resembling a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation following midwinter SSWs but with little impact on the surface signatures of late winter SSWs and SPVs. These results suggest that including interactive ozone chemistry is important for representing North Atlantic and European winter climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric ozone layer shields surface life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Following the Montreal Protocol ban on long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), rapid depletion of total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s, and ozone above 32 km is now clearly recovering. However, there is still no confirmation of TCO recovery, and evidence has emerged that ongoing quasi-global (60 ∘ S–60 ∘ N) lower stratospheric ozone decreases may be responsible, dominated by low latitudes (30 ∘ S–30 ∘ N). Chemistry–climate models (CCMs) used to project future changes predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100 but not at mid-latitudes (30–60 ∘). Here, we show that CCMs display an ozone decline similar to that observed in the tropics over 1998–2016, likely driven by an increase in tropical upwelling. On the other hand, mid-latitude lower stratospheric ozone is observed to decrease, while CCMs that specify real-world historical meteorological fields instead show an increase up to present day. However, these cannot be used to simulate future changes; we demonstrate here that free-running CCMs used for projections also show increases. Despite opposing lower stratospheric ozone changes, which should induce opposite temperature trends, CCMs and observed temperature trends agree; we demonstrate that opposing model–observation stratospheric water vapour (SWV) trends, and their associated radiative effects, explain why temperature changes agree in spite of opposing ozone trends. We provide new evidence that the observed mid-latitude trends can be explained by enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics. We further show that the temperature trends are consistent with the observed mid-latitude ozone decrease. Together, our results suggest that large-scale circulation changes expected in the future from increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) may now already be underway but that most CCMs do not simulate mid-latitude ozone layer changes well. However, it is important to emphasise that the periods considered here are short, and internal variability that is both intrinsic to each CCM and different to observed historical variability is not well-characterised and can influence trend estimates. Nevertheless, the reason CCMs do not exhibit the observed changes needs to be identified to allow models to be improved in order to build confidence in future projections of the ozone layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial (1850) to the end of the 21st century in CMIP6 models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global total column ozone (TCO) has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under other SSPs. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present day and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Both TCO and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour show large variability following explosive volcanic eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratospheric ozone layer shields surface life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Following the Montreal Protocol ban of long-lived ozone depleting substances (ODSs), rapid depletion of total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s and ozone above 32 km now enjoys a clear recovery. However, there is still no confirmation of TCO recovery, and evidence has emerged that ongoing quasi-global (60° S–60° N) lower stratospheric ozone decreases may be responsible, dominated by low latitudes (30° S–30° N). Chemistry climate models (CCMs) used to project future changes predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100, but not at mid-latitudes (30°–60°). Here, we show that CCMs display an ozone decline similar to that observed in the tropics over 1998–2016, likely driven by a increase of tropical upwelling. On the other hand, mid-latitude lower stratospheric ozone is observed to decrease, while CCMs show an increase. Despite opposing lower stratospheric ozone changes, which should induce opposite temperature trends, CCM and observed temperature trends agree; we demonstrate that opposing model-observation stratospheric water vapour (SWV) trends, and their associated radiative effects, explain why temperature changes agree in spite of opposing ozone trends. We provide new evidence that the observed mid-latitude trends can be explained by enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics. We further show that the temperature trends are consistent with the observed mid-latitude ozone decrease. Together, our results suggest that large scale circulation changes expected in the future from increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) may now already be underway, but that most CCMs are not simulating well mid-latitude ozone layer changes. The reason CCMs do not exhibit the observed changes urgently needs to be understood to improve confidence in future projections of the ozone layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the highest elevations of Antarctica, during many months of the year, air near the surface is colder than in much of the overlying atmosphere. This unique feature of the Antarctic atmosphere has been shown to result in a negative greenhouse effect and a negative instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (RFTOA:INST), when carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are increased, and it has been suggested that this effect might play some role in te recent cooling trends observed over East Antarctica. Here, using fully coupled global climate model integrations, in addition to radiative transfer model calculations, the authors confirm the existence of such a negative RFTOA:INST over parts of Antarctica in response to an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2. However, it is also shown that the instantaneous radiative forcing at the tropopause (RFTP:INST) is positive. Further, the negative RFTOA:INST lasts only a few days following the imposed perturbation, and rapidly disappears as the stratosphere cools in response to increased CO2. As a consequence, like the RFTP:INST, the stratosphere-adjusted radiative forcing at the TOA is positive over all of Antarctica and, in the model presented herein, surface temperatures increase everywhere over that continent in response to quadrupled CO2. The results, therefore, clearly demonstrate that the curious negative instantaneous radiative forcing plays no role in the recently observed East Antarctic cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) significantly influence Eurasian wintertime climate. The El Niño phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also affects climate in that region through tropospheric and stratospheric pathways, including increased SSW frequency. However, most SSWs are unrelated to El Niño, and their importance compared to other El Niño pathways remains to be quantified. We here contrast these two sources of variability using two 200‐member ensembles of 1‐year integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, one ensemble with prescribed El Niño sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and one with neutral‐ENSO SSTs. We form composites of wintertime climate anomalies, with and without SSWs, in each ensemble and contrast them to a basic state represented by neutral‐ENSO winters without SSWs. We find that El Niño and SSWs both result in negative North Atlantic Oscillation anomalies and have comparable impacts on European precipitation, but SSWs cause larger Eurasian cooling. Our results have implications for predictability of wintertime Eurasian climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]