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Abstract Plant growth is restricted to times of the year when actual evapotranspiration (AET) is greater than zero because AET requires both the presence of water in the soil and temperatures warm enough to allow transpiration. Locations where water rather than temperature limits plant growth, such as semi‐arid areas of the southwestern United States, often have a bimodal growing season, such that distinct AET (growth) peaks occur in the spring and late summer, with a period of very limited plant growth occurring during the intervening summer months. We hypothesized that future warming will increase the zone containing bimodal growth seasons, likely resulting in significant changes in the competitive relationships between plant species that differ in their tolerance of a bimodal seasonality. This will likely alter plant distributions. Using climate projections to drive a water balance model, we mapped geographic regions within the continental United States projected to experience bimodal growing seasons in the future. The area containing bimodal seasonality increased under all 13 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) examined. This robust result (seen in all alternative futures examined) nevertheless showed considerable variability depending on the GCM examined. The bimodal zone was projected to increase 13%–212% (49,000–792,000 km2) by the late 21st century relative to 1981–2010 estimates. Climate futures that contained the greatest temperature increases and greatest precipitation decreases projected the greatest expansion in the bimodal zone. For plant species that depend on relatively long, consistent time periods that are favorable to growth each year, the projected shift in seasonality may be an acute disturbance that could cause widespread mortality. These changes will likely have cascading ecological and management implications, including changes in the dominant plant life history strategies that occur in affected areas.

Widespread amphibian declines were well documented at the end of the 20th century, raising concerns about the need to identify individual and interactive contributors to this global trend. At the same time, there was growing interest in the use of amphibians as ecological indicators. In the United States, wetland and amphibian monitoring programs were launched in some national parks as a necessary first step to evaluating the status and trends of amphibian populations within some of North America’s most protected areas. In Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks, a multi-species amphibian monitoring program was launched by many of the authors in 2006 and continues to this day. This Viewpoint Article serves as a self-evaluation of our journey from conception through implementation of an ongoing, long-term monitoring program. This self-evaluation should provide a framework and guidance for other monitoring programs. We address whether we are fulfilling the program’s main objective of describing status and trends of the four amphibian species, discuss how a one-size-fits-all monitoring approach does not serve all species equally, and describe opportunities to bolster our core work using emerging statistical approaches and thoughtful integration of remote sensing and molecular tools. We also describe how the data generated over the program’s first 15 years have been useful beyond our initial goal of characterizing status and trend. Notably, our integration of climate datasets has allowed us to describe wetland and species-specific amphibian responses to variations in climate drivers. Documenting climate links to amphibian occurrence and their primary habitats has allowed us to identify which species, habitat types, and subregions within this large, protected landscape are most vulnerable to anticipated climate change. Recognizing that tools and threats change over time, it will be important to adapt our original monitoring design to maximize opportunities and use of resulting information. Maintaining engagement by multiple stakeholders and expanding our funding portfolio will also be necessary to sustain our program into the future. Finally, collaboration has become standard for long-term, cross-jurisdictional, landscape-scale monitoring. We argue that collaborative monitoring facilitates resource sharing, leveraging of limited funds, completion of work, and mutual learning. Such collaboration also increases the efficacy of conservation.

Managing climate impacts to natural resources in protected areas can be hampered by lack of monitoring data, poor understanding of natural resource responses to climate, or lack of timely condition assessments that can inform management actions. Here we demonstrate the utility of water balance as a tool for understanding natural resource responses to climate by developing case studies focused on stream flow, vegetation production, and wildfire ignition at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSDNP), U.S.A. The efficacy of water balance to predict these responses stems from the explicit integration of climate with site conditions that modify the effects of climate. This in turn results in estimates of water availability, water use, and water need that are proximal drivers of aquatic and terrestrial natural resource conditions. The water balance model successfully forecasted stream flow (r2 = 0.69, P

Abstract Climate change in grassland ecosystems may lead to divergent shifts in the abundance and distribution of C3 and C4 grasses. Many studies relate mean climate conditions over relatively long time periods to plant cover, but there is still much uncertainty about how the balance of C3 and C4 species will be affected by climate at a finer temporal scale than season (individual events to months). We monitored cover at five grassland sites with co‐dominant C3 and C4 grass species or only dominant C3 grass species for 6 yr in national parks across the Colorado Plateau region to assess the influence of specific months of climate and water balance on changes in grass cover. C4 grass cover increased and decreased to a larger degree than C3 grass cover with extremely dry and wet consecutive years, but this response varied by ecological site. Climate and water balance explained 10–49% of the inter‐annual variability of cover of C3 and C4 grasses at all sites. High precipitation in the spring and in previous year monsoon storms influenced changes in cover of C4 grasses, with measures of water balance in the same months explaining additional variability. C3 grasses in grasslands where they were dominant were influenced primarily by longer periods of climate, while C3 grasses in grasslands where they were co‐dominant with C4 grasses were influenced little by climate anomalies at either short or long periods of time. Our results suggest that future changes in spring and summer climate and water balance are likely to affect cover of both C3 and C4 grasses, but cover of C4 grasses may be affected more strongly, and the degree of change will depend on soils and topography where they are growing and the timing of the growing season.

Abstract Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland‐dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate‐sensitive wetland‐dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high‐resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate‐driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long‐term monitoring from national parks coupled with high‐resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland‐dependent species to climate change. Further, long‐term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science‐based decisions that have far‐reaching benefits.

Abstract Objective: To examine the supply of smoking cessation medicines to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers compared to non‐Indigenous smokers across Australia. Methods: We analysed the total number of smoking cessation prescriptions dispensed over three years through the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) compared to those supplied nationally through the Closing the Gap (CTG) measure and also in the Northern Territory through the Remote Area Aboriginal Health Service (RAAHS) program. Results: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers were supplied with fewer smoking cessation medicines per smoker under the CTG measure compared to non‐Indigenous smokers under general PBS benefits. Supply of medicines though the RAAHS program complicated the use of CTG data where higher proportions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people live in remote areas and use of the CTG measure is lower. Conclusions: Fewer smoking cessation medicines are being prescribed and then dispensed to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers than to non‐Indigenous smokers. Implications for public health: CTG and RAAHS data may be useful to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to improve the use of smoking cessation medicines by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. However, there are limitations and current obstacles to accessing RAAHS data would need to be removed.

Abstract Objective: Smoking is a major cause of preventable illness for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, with most commencing in adolescence. Understanding trends in youth tobacco use can inform prevention policies and programs. Methods: Logistic regression models examined smoking trends among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and all students aged 12–17 years, in five nationally representative triennial surveys, 2005–2017. Outcomes measured lifetime, past month, past week tobacco use and number of cigarettes smoked daily (smoking intensity). Results: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students' never smoking increased (2005: 49%, 2017: 70%) with corresponding declines in past month and week smoking. Smoking intensity reduced among current smokers (low intensity increased 2005: 67%, 2017: 77%). Trends over time were similar for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students as for all students (8‐10% annual increase in never smoking). Conclusions: Most Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students are now never smokers. Comparable declines indicate similar policy impact for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and all students. Implications for Public Health: Comprehensive population‐based tobacco control policies can impact all students. Continued investment, including in communities, is needed to maintain and accelerate reductions among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students to achieve equivalent prevalence rates and reduce health inequities.

Abstract Objective: To examine whether baseline measures of stress, life satisfaction, depression and alcohol use predict making or sustaining quit attempts in a national cohort of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. Methods: We analysed data from the nationally representative quota sample of 1,549 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults who reported smoking at least weekly in the Talking About The Smokes baseline survey (April 2012–October 2013) and the 759 who completed a follow‐up survey a year later (August 2013–August 2014). Results: More smokers who reported negative life satisfaction, feeling depressed, higher stress or drinking heavily less often than once a week at baseline made a quit attempt between the baseline and follow‐up surveys. In contrast, of these smokers who had made quit attempts between surveys, more who reported higher stress were able to sustain abstinence for at least one month; other associations were inconclusive. Conclusions and implications for public health: Health staff and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers need not see being more stressed as an obstacle to quitting among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Health staff should emphasise the benefits to mental health that come with successfully quitting smoking.

Abstract Background There is limited evidence for the effectiveness of social media to promote healthy behaviour among Indigenous Australians, including to reduce smoking. Social media has significant potential to stimulate interpersonal influence to quit, however an important knowledge gap is how and what content people choose to share with friends and family. This paper explores the decision making processes of community members for sharing tobacco control content with family and friends on Facebook. Methods Community researchers were paid to choose and share at least one tobacco control post per week for a period of 6 months on their personal Facebook page. They documented reasons for their choices, which were coded and analysed to determine features of messages most likely to be shared, and salient considerations in the decision-making process. Results Posts which are child-focused, feature Indigenous content, and are perceived as practical, relevant and credible, with a direct and unambiguous message, were most likely to be shared. Posts which included disgusting imagery about health impacts, were focused on the environment, or were ambiguous or sarcastic were less likely to be shared. Decisions were also based on whether content was perceived to contain new information, to be helpful for their friends, and to be consistent with the participant’s online identity, as well as the perceived sensitivity of content. The potential impact on expensive mobile data for videos was also a factor. Conclusions When designing tobacco control messages to be shared on social media, health promoters should take into account how information will align with positive self-image and can contribute to social capital among the intended audience, and generate interpersonal engagement. Content should complement, rather than attempt to replicate, some message features that are effective on traditional broadcast media. This study shows the potential for health services to incorporate a strategy of using paid local social media ‘champions’ or ‘ambassadors’ to disseminate tobacco control messages on Facebook through community networks.

Abstract Objective: To assess whether social, economic and demographic measures are associated with initiating and sustaining quit attempts in a national sample of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. Methods: We analysed data from 759 adults who reported smoking at least weekly in the Talking About The Smokes baseline survey (April 2012 – October 2013) and completed a follow up survey a year later (August 2013 – August 2014). Results: Almost none of the standard baseline socioeconomic indicators predicted making or sustaining quit attempts. However, becoming employed was associated with making quit attempts (OR 1.88) and both becoming employed (OR 3.03) and moving to purchase a home (OR 2.34) were both positively associated with sustaining abstinence of one month or more. More smokers who had insufficient money for food or essentials because of money spent on cigarettes had made a quit attempt (OR 1.47) and sustained abstinence of one month or more (OR 1.74). Conclusions and implications: Disadvantage does not seem to have pervasive negative effects on quitting. We should be more optimistic in our tobacco control activities with the most disadvantaged among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers. Increasing personal empowerment (e.g. getting a job) may lead to at least short‐term improvements in quitting.

Abstract Objective: To describe the social patterning of and trends in the prevalence of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smoke‐free homes, and the association between these smoke‐free homes and smoking initiation, intensity and cessation. Methods: Analyses of responses to questions about whether any householders usually smoke inside in the 2004 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey, the 2008 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey, and in the comparable National Health Surveys in 2004 and 2007. Results: The proportion of Indigenous children living with at least one daily smoker who smokes inside declined significantly from 28.4% in 2004 to 20.8% in 2008, with significant improvements only detected among the most disadvantaged categories of Indigenous children. The proportion of Indigenous daily smokers who lived in multi‐person households where no daily smoker householder usually smoked inside increased significantly from 45.0% in 2004 to 56.3% in 2008. The absolute size of these changes was greater among Indigenous children and smokers than among all Australians. More disadvantaged Indigenous children were more likely to be exposed to secondhand smoke at home, and more disadvantaged Indigenous smokers were more likely to live in households where smokers usually smoked inside. Indigenous smokers in smoke‐free homes smoke significantly less cigarettes. Conclusions and Implications: The increases in Indigenous smoke‐free homes are encouraging, especially as they are from the period before recent increased attention to Indigenous tobacco control, which should accelerate these trends and their resultant health benefits for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and families.

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world's most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948-2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA's physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.