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This paper uses the data of 1338 rural households in the Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam to examine the extent to which subsidised credit targets the poor and its impacts. Principal Component Analysis and Propensity Score Matching were used to evaluate the depth of outreach and the income impact of credit. To address the problem of model uncertainty, the approach of Bayesian Model Average applied to the probit model was used. Results showed that subsidised credit successfully targeted the poor households with 24.10% and 69.20% of clients falling into the poorest group and the three bottom groups respectively. Moreover, those who received subsidised credit make up 83% of ethnic minority households. These results indicate that governmental subsidies are necessary to reach the poor and low income households, who need capital but are normally bypassed by commercial banks. Analyses also showed that ethnicity and age of household heads, number of helpers, savings, as well as how affected households are by shocks were all factors that further explained the probability at which subsidised credit has been assessed. Furthermore, recipients obtained a 2.61% higher total income and a 5.93% higher farm income compared to non-recipients. However, these small magnitudes of effects are statistically insignificant at a 5% level. Although the subsidised credit is insufficient to significantly improve the income of the poor households, it possibly prevents these households of becoming even poorer.

Using case studies of the bamboo and cinnamon value chains in rural areas of northern Vietnam, this paper contributes to the existing literature by analyzing barriers and suggests conditions under which value chain lending would be an effective tool for improving smallholder farmers' access to credit. A mixed method using both in-depth interviews with relevant stakeholders and a two-stage Heckman model is employed to explain the existing credit gap. Findings show that in both chains, bank decision-making on lending is typically limited to individual chain actors instead of considering the whole chain. Commercial banks predominately use conventional lending approaches heavily dependent on collateral which typically results in a shortage of credit available to the chain actors. Value chain lending is constrained by weak chain linkages and limited ownership of private bank accounts. Drawing from these cases in Vietnam, the article concludes by arguing that status quo value chain lending in lower-income countries merits considerable rethinking. The lending approaches of banks require innovation to 'think beyond collateral' in improving chain cohesion. Multistakeholder partnerships are important for successful value chain lending. In addition, farmer-based unions have the potential to address issues of information asymmetry in the credit market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]