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Satellite observations and ground-based measurements have indicated a high variability in the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Middle East region in recent decades. In the period that extends from 2003 to 2012, observations show a positive AOD trend of 0.01–0.04 per year or a total increase of 0.1–0.4 per decade. This study aimed to investigate if the observed trend was also captured by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. To this end, we examined changes in the simulated dust emissions and dust AOD during this period. To understand the factors driving the increase in AOD in this region we also examined meteorological and surface parameters important for dust emissions, such as wind fields and soil moisture. Two GEOS model simulations were used in this study: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis (with meteorological and aerosol AOD data assimilated) and MERRA-2 Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Replay (with meteorology constrained by the MERRA-2 reanalysis but without aerosol assimilation). We did not find notable changes in the modeled 10 m wind speed and soil moisture. However, analysis of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data did show an average decrease of 8 % per year in the region encompassing Syria and Iraq, which prompted us to quantify the effects of vegetation on dust emissions and AOD in the Middle East region. This was done by performing a sensitivity experiment in which we enhanced dust emissions in grid cells where the NDVI decreased. The simulation results supported our hypothesis that the loss of vegetation cover and the associated increase in dust emissions over Syria and Iraq can partially explain the increase in AOD downwind. The model simulations indicated dust emissions need to be 10-fold larger in those grid cells in order to reproduce the observed AOD and trend in the model.

Biomass burning aerosol impacts aspects of the atmosphere and Earth system through direct and semi-direct effects, as well as influencing air quality. Despite its importance, the representation of biomass burning aerosol is not always accurate in numerical weather prediction and climate models or reanalysis products. Using observations collected as part of the Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in August through October of 2019, aerosol concentration and optical properties are evaluated within the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and its underlying aerosol module, GOCART. In the operational configuration, GEOS assimilates aerosol optical depth observations at 550 nm from AERONET and MODIS to constrain aerosol fields. Particularly for biomass burning aerosol, without the assimilation of aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction is underestimated compared to observations collected in the Philippines region during the CAMP2Ex campaign. The assimilation process adds excessive amounts of carbon to account for the underestimated extinction, resulting in positive biases in the mass of black and organic carbon, especially within the boundary layer, relative to in situ observations from the Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment. Counteracting this, GEOS is deficient in sulfate and nitrate aerosol just above the boundary layer. Aerosol extinction within GEOS is a function of the mass of different aerosol species, the ambient relative humidity, the assumed spectral optical properties, and particle size distribution per species. The relationship between dry and ambient extinction in GEOS reveals that hygroscopic growth is too high within the model for biomass burning aerosol. An additional concern lies in the assumed particle size distribution for GEOS, which has a single mode radius that is too small for organic carbon. Variability in the observed particle size distribution for biomass burning aerosol within a single flight also illuminates the fact that a single assumed particle size distribution is not sufficient and that for a proper representation, a more advanced aerosol module within GEOS may be necessary.

We use observations from the space-based Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) to evaluate global aerosol distributions simulated in the NASA Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero). We focus particularly on an evaluation of aerosol types, using the CALIOP vertical feature mask (VFM) algorithm, and look especially at Saharan dust distributions during July 2009. MERRAero consists of an aerosol simulation produced in the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model and incorporates assimilation of MODIS-derived aerosol optical thickness (AOT) to constrain column aerosol loadings. For comparison to the CALIOP VFM we construct two synthetic VFMs using the MERRAero aerosol distributions: a CALIOP-like VFM in which we simulate the total attenuated backscatter and particle depolarization ratio from the MERRAero output and pass those into the CALIOP VFM typing algorithm (MERRAero-CALIOP), and an extinction-based VFM in which we use the MERRAero-simulated species-resolved extinction to map the MERRAero species to the CALIOP VFM types (MERRAero-Extinction). By comparing the MERRAero-CALIOP VFM to CALIOP VFM, we can diagnose the aerosol transport and speciation in MERRAero. By comparing the MERRAero-CALIOP and MERRAero-Extinction-simulated VFM, we perform a simple observing system experiment (OSE), which is useful for identifying limitations of the CALIOP VFM algorithm itself. We find that, despite having our column AOT constrained by MODIS, comparison to the CALIOP VFM reveals a greater occurrence of dusty aerosol layers in our MERRAero-CALIOP VFM due to errors in MERRAero aerosol speciation. Additionally, we find that the CALIOP VFM algorithm is challenged when classifying aerosol features when multiple aerosol types are present, as our application of the CALIOP VFM algorithm to MERRAero aerosol distributions classified marine-dominated aerosol layers with low aerosol loadings as polluted dust when the contribution of dust to the total extinction was low.