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Abstract Background Understanding the impacts of climate change on forest aboveground biomass is a high priority for land managers. High elevation subalpine forests provide many important ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, and are vulnerable to climate change, which has altered forest structure and disturbance regimes. Although large, regional studies have advanced aboveground biomass mapping with satellite data, typically using a general approach broadly calibrated or trained with available field data, it is unclear how well these models work in less prevalent and highly heterogeneous forest types such as the subalpine. Monitoring biomass using methods that model uncertainty at multiple scales is critical to ensure that local relationships between biomass and input variables are retained. Forest structure metrics from lidar are particularly valuable alongside field data for mapping aboveground biomass, due to their high correlation with biomass. Results We estimated aboveground woody biomass of live and dead trees and uncertainty at 30 m resolution in subalpine forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, from aerial lidar data in combination with a collection of field inventory data, using a Bayesian geostatistical model. The ten-fold cross-validation resulted in excellent model calibration of our subalpine-specific model (94.7% of measured plot biomass within the predicted 95% credible interval). When evaluated against two commonly referenced regional estimates based on Landsat optical imagery, root mean square error, relative standard error, and bias of our estimations were substantially lower, demonstrating the benefits of local modeling for subalpine forests. We mapped AGB over four management units in the Sierra Nevada and found variable biomass density ranging from 92.4 to 199.2 Mg/ha across these management units, highlighting the importance of high quality, local field and remote sensing data. Conclusions By applying a relatively new Bayesian geostatistical modeling method to a novel forest type, our study produced the most accurate and precise aboveground biomass estimates to date for Sierra Nevada subalpine forests at 30 m pixel and management unit scales. Our estimates of total aboveground biomass within the management units had low uncertainty and can be used effectively in carbon accounting and carbon trading markets.

Abstract Fire is crucial for maintaining species diversity and resilience in fire‐adapted shrublands of the world's Mediterranean climate zones (MCZs), which include the chaparral shrublands of the North American MCZ. Chaparral is adapted to high‐intensity burning, with relatively long intervals between fires (30–100 years) typifying undegraded conditions. Modern fire frequencies are much higher in chaparral, driven largely by high densities of human ignitions and coincidence between ignitions and severe weather conditions. This change in the fire regime has major implications for biodiversity, leading to exotic invasion, decreased ecosystem services, and potential type conversion of shrubland to grassland dominated by exotic species. We studied the impact of increased fire frequencies on the composition and abundance of herbaceous and woody species in the Interior Coast Range of northern California. Our study area is one of the most frequently burned areas in California, which allowed us to investigate higher fire frequencies than previously published in the scientific literature for California. We surveyed fifty‐four 250‐m2 plots to assess changes in plant community composition and postfire regeneration of chaparral shrubs across a wide range of fire frequencies, including plots that have burned up to six times in the past 30 years. Our findings reveal that short‐interval fires significantly reduced postfire native woody regeneration, with obligate seeding species experiencing a 99% reduction and facultative species showing an 83% reduction in regeneration in the most frequently burned plots. Moreover, the overall marginal effect of one additional fire since 1985 decreased the proportion of native species cover by 12% and both richness and Shannon diversity by 4%. Consequently, areas with higher fire recurrence supported a more structurally and botanically homogeneous landscape dominated by a homogeneous group of non‐native species.

Tree establishment following severe or stand-replacing disturbance is critical for achieving U.S. climate change mitigation goals and for maintaining the co-benefits of intact forest ecosystems. In many contexts, natural post-fire tree regeneration is sufficient to maintain forest cover and associated ecosystem services, but increasingly the pattern and scale of disturbance exceeds ecological thresholds and active reforestation may be warranted. Our capacity to plant trees, however, is not keeping pace with reforestation needs. This shortfall is uniquely apparent in the western U.S., where wildfire size and severity have increased in recent decades and long-term divestment in the reforestation supply chain has limited our ability to respond to existing needs. Here we present an analysis of key facets of both the supply and demand side of reforestation in the western U.S. and address six questions: (1) What is the current backlog of potential reforestation needs driven by high-severity wildfire?; (2) How will increasing wildfire activity through the end of the century affect potential reforestation needs?; (3) What is our capacity to meet current and future reforestation needs?; (4) How can we scale the reforestation supply chain to meet current and future demands?; (5) What approaches to reforestation can promote forest resilience to climate change and wildfire?; and (6) Where are opportunities emerging from recent policy initiatives, innovative public-private partnerships, and natural capital markets for scaling reforestation? Between 1984 and 2000, annual tree planting capacity met post-fire needs but cumulatively over the last two decades (2000 to 2021) it has fallen short of fire-driven needs by an estimated 1.5 million ha (ca. 3.8 million ac). We anticipate this gap will increase 2 to 3 fold by 2050. Scaling up reforestation efforts to close this gap will require increased investment across all facets of the reforestation supply chain, public-private partnerships, and novel approaches to reforestation that increase the resilience of western forests to drought and wildfire. We highlight emerging opportunities from recent policy initiatives and conservation finance for expanding reforestation efforts.

Mediterranean-climate region (MCR) shrublands have evolved a set of regeneration strategies in response to periodic, high intensity wildfires: obligate seeding (OS), obligate resprouting (OR), and facultative seeding (FS) species. In the North American MCR, data on their spatial and temporal variability is currently lacking, which is a significant information gap for resource managers. We developed a multinomial model using dynamic and static variables to predict the distribution of the three shrub post-fire regeneration strategies, plus trees and herbs, in southern California. Cross-validation showed 50% of the predicted values for each of the five plant groups were within 8–24 percent of the actual value. We assessed variation in shrub regeneration strategies in three ways. First, we found the three major shrub community types (mixed chaparral, chamise-redshank chaparral, and coastal sage scrub) had proportionally greater biomass of FS (37–43% of total biomass) than OR or OS. Second, we assessed the spatial variability using (a) moisture availability (climatic water deficit and solar radiation) and found FS accounted for an increasingly greater proportion of total aboveground live biomass as water became limited, while OR biomass decreased; and (b) ecosystem productivity (NDVI) which showed the proportion of OS, OR, and tree biomass increased with productivity (with a corresponding dramatic decrease in herb biomass). We also assessed temporal variability using time since fire and found OS represented an initially small proportion of total biomass immediately post-fire (8–10%) which increased with time since fire (13–17%). Third, spatial outputs from the multinomial model indicated FS dominated pixels were most widely distributed across the study area (~3.4 million ha, 71%), compared to OR and OS covering 5% each. FS also occurred more frequently on warmer, south facing slopes and summits whereas OR preferred cooler, north facing slopes and valleys (p < 0.0001). Better understanding the distribution of OS, OR, and FS shrubs is important for resource management, including quantifying shrubland carbon storage and identifying areas for post-fire restoration, as described in a case study of the Bobcat Fire on the Angeles National Forest.

Abstract Ecological disturbance regimes across the globe are being altered via direct and indirect human influences. Biodiversity loss at multiple scales can be a direct outcome of these shifts. Fire, especially in dry forests, is an ecological disturbance that is experiencing dramatic changes due to climate change, fire suppression, increased human population in fire‐prone areas, and alterations to vegetation composition and structure. Dry western conifer forests that historically experienced frequent, low‐severity fires are now increasingly burning at high severity. Relatively little work has been done looking at the effects of this novel disturbance type on affected plant communities, and little is known about how these impacts change over time. To fill in these knowledge gaps, we examined a fire that burned in a yellow pine and mixed conifer forest in the central Sierra Nevada in California, USA. We sampled at five time steps across the nine years following the fire (1, 3, 5, 8, and 9 years postfire). We found a generally unimodal relationship between fire severity and plant alpha and gamma diversity, but found that areas that burned at high severity supported progressively lower plant diversity as time since fire increased. Similarly, beta diversity decreased drastically through time for the high‐severity areas, while remaining more static in the other severity classes. The combination of these findings indicates that significant floristic homogenization can result from high‐severity fire in this ecosystem type. We also saw consistently lower diversity in unburned areas in comparison to area burned at low and moderate severity, underlining that both lack of fire and high‐severity fire can have negative impacts on postfire plant diversity. Unburned areas that experienced forest thinning after the first sample year saw an increase in plant diversity over time, suggesting that some—but not all—of the effects of fire on plant diversity can be approximated through forest management.

Abstract As climate changes, locally adapted tree populations may become maladapted to the sites in which they presently occur. When natural adaptive processes are insufficient for populations to keep pace with changing climate, human‐assisted relocation of genotypes (assisted gene flow) may be a useful tool for maintaining forest resilience. While existing empirical evidence provides insight into the potential outcomes and consequences of assisted gene flow, its applicability to large‐scale plantings needs to be evaluated. We conducted a test of assisted gene flow in the context of operational postfire restoration plantings in three U.S. Department of Agriculture National Forests in California. Our experimental restoration plantings included seedling provenances representing both the local planting site and lower‐elevation provenances that may be adapted to hotter and drier conditions. For the duration of the experiment, the planting sites experienced anomalously hot, dry conditions, offering a window into the potential outcomes of assisted gene flow in a future climate characterized by warmer temperatures and more frequent drought. In most cases, there was no significant difference in seedling growth or survival among provenances. However, in a few cases, lower‐elevation provenances performed better than local provenances, suggesting a potential benefit of assisted gene flow as a management response to climate change. Our analyses accounted for spatial variation in shrub cover and detected a consistent and substantial negative association between shrub cover and seedling growth. In addition, our study revealed that the use of operational seed collections that are not geographically precise (and therefore also not climatically precise) can complicate selection of appropriate provenances and lead to unpredictable outcomes. Numerous other risks and uncertainties—including the fact that tree populations are often adapted to local site factors other than climate and that long‐term outcomes may differ from short‐term observations—complicate evaluations of the potential utility of assisted gene flow.

Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

Land managers implement forest fuel reduction treatments, including prescribed fire, mastication, and hand- and mechanical thinning, to modify wildfire behavior. Fuel treatments decrease tree density, increase mean canopy base height and remove surface fuels, and have been shown to reduce fire severity in yellow pine and mixed-conifer forests, even under relatively severe weather conditions. However, less is known about the impacts of fuel treatments on other facets of forest ecology. Synthesizing evidence from the scientific literature regarding their effects on forest structure, carbon, vegetation, soils, wildlife and forest pests, we found a developing consensus that fuel treatments, particularly those that include a prescribed fire component, may have neutral to positive effects on a number of ecological processes in frequent-fire coniferous forests and may increase forest resilience to future disturbance and stress.

Disturbances such as wildfire play a major role in the diversity, structure and composition of plant communities, however, little is known about the differential impacts of fire across landscapes that vary in characteristics such as soil nutrients and site productivity. Theory predicts that productivity can mediate the impacts of fire for reasons related to broad ecological processes and differential selective forces. For instance, ecosystems with lower site productivity are less limited by space and light and consequently experience less pronounced changes in these resources following a disturbance. Moreover, resource availability related to disturbance and productivity can affect the proportion of plants with competitive versus stress‐tolerant life history strategies. In this study, we utilized a model system for testing predictions about productivity and disturbance that included a mixed conifer forest across a gradient of edaphically harsh, ultramafic “serpentine” soils and “nonserpentine” soils in the northern Sierra Nevada (California, USA). We predicted that the magnitude of fire effects on plant diversity from a 2008 wildfire would be positively related to productivity (higher on nonserpentine soils) and that these factors would interact as environmental filters driving post‐fire species assemblage. In summer 2013 we established 90 vegetation plots in burned areas and 40 plots outside the fire perimeter as a proxy for pre‐fire conditions. We found a unimodal relationship between species diversity and fire severity (peaking at low/moderate severity), and mild evidence post‐fire changes were more pronounced on nonserpentine soils. In contrast, we found strong evidence that productivity and fire severity interact as drivers of species composition and functional traits with a higher proportion of resprouting shrubs on nonserpentine soils and, contrary to our prediction, more invaders on serpentine soils. We hypothesize that differences in biomass between serpentine and nonserpentine forests were not substantial enough to elicit a differential diversity response, possibly deriving from a weaker serpentine syndrome in this region that has been previously noted. Our study reveals that differences in productivity can mediate the outcome of disturbances in ways that cannot be detected through standard community diversity metrics, and that consideration of life history trait variation is necessary.

Fire is one of the most important natural disturbance processes in the western United States and ecosystems differ markedly with respect to their ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Reference fire regimes in forested ecosystems can be categorized along a gradient ranging from “fuel‐limited” to “climate‐limited” where the former types are often characterized by frequent, lower‐severity wildfires and the latter by infrequent, more severe wildfires. Using spatial data on fire severity from 1984–2011 and metrics related to fire frequency, we tested how divergence from historic (pre‐Euroamerican settlement) fire frequencies due to a century of fire suppression influences rates of high‐severity fire in five forest types in California. With some variation among bioregions, our results suggest that fires in forest types characterized by fuel‐limited fire regimes (e.g., yellow pine and mixed conifer forest) tend to burn with greater proportions of high‐severity fire as either time since last fire or the mean modern fire return interval (FRI) increases. Two intermediate fire regime types (mixed evergreen and bigcone Douglas‐fir) showed a similar relationship between fire frequency and fire severity. However, red fir and redwood forests, which are characterized by more climate‐limited fire regimes, did not show significant positive relationships between FRI and fire severity. This analysis provides strong evidence that for fuel‐limited fire regimes, lack of fire leads to increasing rates of high‐severity burning. Our study also substantiates the general validity of “fuel‐limited” vs. “climate‐limited” explanations of differing patterns of fire effects and response in forest types of the western US.

Abstract Due to fire suppression policies, timber harvest, and other management practices over the last century, many low‐ to mid‐elevation forests in semiarid parts of the western United States have accumulated high fuel loads and dense, multi‐layered canopies that are dominated by shade‐tolerant and fire‐sensitive conifers. To a great extent, the future status of western US forests will depend on tree species’ responses to patterns and trends in fire activity and fire behavior and postfire management decisions. This is especially the case in the North American Mediterranean‐climate zone (NAMCZ), which supports the highest precipitation variability in North America and a 4‐ to 6‐month annual drought, and has seen greater‐than‐average increases in air temperature and fire activity over the last three decades. We established 1490 survey plots in 14 burned areas on 10 National Forests across a range of elevations, forest types, and fire severities in the central and northern NAMCZ to provide insight into factors that promote natural tree regeneration after wildfires and the differences in postfire responses of the most common conifer species. We measured site characteristics, seedling densities, woody shrub, and tree growth. We specified a zero‐inflated negative binomial mixed model with random effects to understand the importance of each measured variable in predicting conifer regeneration. Across all fires, 43% of all plots had no conifer regeneration. Ten of the 14 fires had median conifer seedling densities that did not meet Forest Service stocking density thresholds for mixed conifer forests. When regeneration did occur, it was dominated by shade‐tolerant but fire‐sensitive firs (Abies spp.), Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens). Seedling densities of conifer species were lowest in sites that burned at high severity, principally due to the biotic consequences of high severity fire, for example, increased distances to live seed trees and competition with fire‐following shrubs. We developed a second model specifically for forest managers and restoration practitioners who work in yellow pine and mixed conifer forests in the central NAMCZ to assess potential natural regeneration in the years immediately following a fire, allowing them to prioritize which areas may need active postfire forest restoration and supplemental planting.

A substantial portion of chaparral shrublands in the southern part of California's Sierra Nevada Mountain Range has never had a recorded fire since record keeping began in 1910. We hypothesised that such long periods without fire are outside the historical range of variability and that when such areas burn, postfire recovery is weaker than in younger stands. We predicted that long fire-free periods will result in loss of shrub species and deterioration of soil seed banks, which, coupled with higher fire intensities from the greater accumulation of dead biomass, will lead to poorer postfire regeneration. The 2002 McNally Fire burned ancient stands that were as much as 150 years old, as well as much younger (mature) stands. Based on shrub skeletons in the burned area as a surrogate for prefire density, we found that ancient stands change in structure, owing primarily to the loss of obligate seeding Ceanothus cuneatus other species appear to have great longevity. Despite the reduction in C. cuneatus, postfire shrubseedling recruitment remained strong in these ancient stands, although some seed bank deterioration is suggested by the three-quarters lower seedling recruitment than recorded from mature stands. Total diversity and the abundance of postfire endemic annuals are two other response variables that suggest that these ancient stands are recovering as well as mature stands. The one area of some concern is that non-native species richness and abundance increased in the ancient stands, suggesting that these are more open to alien colonisers. It is concluded that chaparral more than a century old is resilient to such long fire-free periods and fire severity impacts are indistinguishable from those in younger chaparral stands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the "stand age" variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical "mixed-severity" fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data.