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Background The place of tonsillectomy in the management of sore throat in adults remains uncertain. Objectives To establish the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tonsillectomy, compared with conservative management, for tonsillitis in adults, and to evaluate the impact of alternative sore throat patient pathways. Design This was a multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing tonsillectomy with conservative management. The trial included a qualitative process evaluation and an economic evaluation. Setting The study took place at 27 NHS secondary care hospitals in Great Britain. Participants A total of 453 eligible participants with recurrent sore throats were recruited to the main trial. Interventions Patients were randomised on a 1 : 1 basis between tonsil dissection and conservative management (i.e. deferred surgery) using a variable block-stratified design, stratified by (1) centre and (2) severity. Main outcome measures The primary outcome measure was the total number of sore throat days over 24 months following randomisation. The secondary outcome measures were the number of sore throat episodes and five characteristics from Sore Throat Alert Return, describing severity of the sore throat, use of medications, time away from usual activities and the Short Form questionnaire-12 items. Additional secondary outcomes were the Tonsil Outcome Inventory-14 total and subscales and Short Form questionnaire-12 items 6 monthly. Evaluation of the impact of alternative sore throat patient pathways by observation and statistical modelling of outcomes against baseline severity, as assessed by Tonsil Outcome Inventory-14 score at recruitment. The incremental cost per sore throat day avoided, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained based on responses to the Short Form questionnaire-12 items and the incremental net benefit based on costs and responses to a contingent valuation exercise. A qualitative process evaluation examined acceptability of trial processes and ramdomised arms. Results There was a median of 27 (interquartile range 12–52) sore throats over the 24-month follow-up. A smaller number of sore throats was reported in the tonsillectomy arm [median 23 (interquartile range 11–46)] than in the conservative management arm [median 30 (interquartile range 14–65)]. On an intention-to-treat basis, there were fewer sore throats in the tonsillectomy arm (incident rate ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.65). Sensitivity analyses confirmed this, as did the secondary outcomes. There were 52 episodes of post-operative haemorrhage reported in 231 participants undergoing tonsillectomy (22.5%). There were 47 re-admissions following tonsillectomy (20.3%), 35 relating to haemorrhage. On average, tonsillectomy was more costly and more effective in terms of both sore throat days avoided and quality-adjusted life-years gained. Tonsillectomy had a 100% probability of being considered cost-effective if the threshold for an additional quality-adjusted life year was £20,000. Tonsillectomy had a 69% probability of having a higher net benefit than conservative management. Trial processes were deemed to be acceptable. Patients who received surgery were unanimous in reporting to be happy to have received it. Limitations The decliners who provided data tended to have higher Tonsillectomy Outcome Inventory-14 scores than those willing to be randomised implying that patients with a higher burden of tonsillitis symptoms may have declined entry into the trial. Conclusions The tonsillectomy arm had fewer sore throat days over 24 months than the conservative management arm, and had a high probability of being considered cost-effective over the ranges considered. Further work should focus on when tonsillectomy should be offered. National Trial of Tonsillectomy IN Adults has assessed the effectiveness of tonsillectomy when offered for the current UK threshold of disease burden. Further research is required to define the minimum disease burden at which tonsillectomy becomes clinically effective and cost-effective. Trial registration This trial is registered as ISRCTN55284102. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/146/06) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 31. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. Plain language summary Tonsillectomy is an operation to take out the pair of tonsil glands at the back of the throat. It is an option for adults who suffer from repeated, severe sore throats. Adults who have a tonsillectomy say that they get fewer sore throats afterwards, but it is not clear whether or not they would have got better over time without the operation. There is pressure on doctors to limit the number of tonsillectomies carried out. At the same time, emergency hospital admissions for adults with severe throat infections have been increasing. NAtional Trial of Tonsillectomy IN Adults aimed to find out whether tonsillectomy is an effective and worthwhile treatment for repeated severe sore throats or whether patients would be better off treated without an operation. A total of 453 patients from 27 hospitals in Great Britain took part in the study. Patients were assigned at random to receive either tonsillectomy or conservative management (treatment as needed from their general practitioner). We measured how many sore throats patients had in the next 2 years by sending them text messages every week. We asked about the impact of their sore throats on their quality of life and time off work, and looked at the costs of treatment. We also interviewed 47 patients, general practitioners and hospital staff about their experiences of tonsillectomy and NAtional Trial of Tonsillectomy IN Adults. The typical patient in the tonsillectomy arm had 23 days of sore throat compared with 30 days of sore throat in the conservative management arm. Tonsillectomy resulted in higher quality of life. We looked to see whether or not it was only those with the most severe sore throats who benefited from tonsillectomy, but we found that patients with more or less severe sore throats at the start all did better with tonsillectomy. Patients who had a tonsillectomy were happy to have undertaken this. Our findings suggest a clear benefit of tonsillectomy using modest additional NHS resources for adults with repeated severe sore throats. Scientific summary Background Sore throats cost the NHS over £120M per annum, including ≈ £60M for general practitioner (GP) consultations and medical therapy. The place of tonsillectomy in the management of sore throat remains uncertain. Objectives Clinical To establish the clinical effectiveness of tonsillectomy, compared with conservative management, for tonsillitis in adults. To report the number of adverse events (AEs), visits to the GP/walk-in clinic/accident and emergency, prescriptions issued and additional interventions required to manage sore throats and related events through weekly Sore Throat Alert Return (STAR) response data and primary care patient records. To adjust the estimate of effectiveness in the light of other baseline covariates, including severity of tonsillitis. To evaluate the impact of alternative sore throat patient pathways by observation and statistical modelling of outcomes. To assess to what extent trial participants were representative of the total population of sore throat patients referred to ear, nose and throat (ENT) clinics. To inform future research. Qualitative process evaluation To examine the acceptability of the trial, treatments and unforeseen consequences from the perspective of participants and stakeholders, including ENT staff and GPs. Economic evaluation To compare costs incurred by the NHS, Personal and Social Services (PSS) and participants to manage recurrent sore throats in adults. To compare quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using the area-under-the-curve method based on Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimension (SF-6D) scores derived from longitudinal Short Form questionnaire-12 items (SF-12) responses throughout the study and during self-reported sore throat episodes. To compare the cost-effectiveness measured in terms of the incremental: cost per sore throat day avoided cost per QALY gained net benefit – estimated based on self-reported number of sore throat days and responses to a contingent valuation questionnaire administered at baseline asking participants’ willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid a sore throat day. Methods Design A multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing the effectiveness of tonsillectomy for recurrent sore throat with that of non-surgical conservative management in a 1 : 1 ratio over a 24-month period. Surgeons, participants and site staff could not be blinded to the allocated procedure. The main trial began following the completion of a feasibility study and included a qualitative process evaluation, as well as an economic evaluation. The design, conduct and reporting of the trial were informed by patients. Crossover of participants between arms was permitted. Interventions Tonsil dissection: dissection of the palatine tonsils preferably within 6 weeks, and no more than 8 weeks, following randomisation (dissection method at the discretion of the participating centres). Conservative (non-surgical) management (i.e. deferred surgery): participants entering the conservative management arm were asked to defer surgery for up to 24 months on the understanding that they would be reviewed at 12 months. Setting and participants A total of 453 patients were recruited to the main trial from 27 NHS secondary care hospitals in Great Britain. Eligible patients were identified via general ENT referrals and established sore throat-specific referral pathways, some of which were run by ENT nurse practitioners. Inclusion criteria Aged ≥16 years. Recurrent sore throats that fulfil current Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) guidance for elective tonsillectomy. Exclusion criteria Previous tonsillectomy. Listed directly (i.e. added to waiting list without prior elective ENT outpatient appointment) during emergency admission (e.g. owing to peritonsillar abscess/quinsy). Primary sleep breathing disorder. Suspected malignancy. Tonsilloliths (as primary referral). Pregnant or breastfeeding. Bleeding diathesis (including haemophilia, sickle cell disease and platelet dysfunction). Therapeutic anticoagulation. Inability to complete self-reported questionnaires and sore throat returns. Main outcome measures Primary outcome The primary outcome measure was the total number of sore throat days over the 24 months following randomisation. The number of sore throat days was collected by a database that was designed for use in the trial (the STAR database). This database allowed participants to respond weekly to alerts by providing the number of sore throats that they had experienced in the previous 7 days (between 0 and 7 sore throat days). From the beginning of the trial, participants were able to choose their preferred method for receiving these alerts: e-mail, text message or interactive voice response (IVR) via telephone. Secondary outcomes A participant who had suffered from a sore throat in the past week (i.e. sore throat days >0) was asked to provide information on the severity of the sore throat(s) and additional data for health economics and other secondary outcomes in a STAR questionnaire. Quality-of-life data, reported as the SF-12 physical component score (PCS) and mental component score (MCS) and additional symptoms of tonsillitis, were collected every 6 months. The impact of alternative NHS sore throat pathways was measured by observation and statistical modelling of outcomes. The extent to which trial participants represented the total population of sore throat patients referred to ENT clinics was assessed through analysis of site screening logs. Adverse events Information regarding the AEs related to the trial intervention was collected during telephone calls at 1 and 2 weeks post tonsillectomy; all tonsillectomy arm serious adverse events (SAEs) were recorded throughout the duration of the trial for all participants. Economic evaluation The cost-effectiveness of tonsillectomy compared with conservative management was evaluated by estimating the total costs incurred by the NHS and PSS, and averaging these costs across participants in each trial arm. Three different analyses were undertaken: (1) a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), (2) a cost–utility analysis (CUA) and (3) a cost–benefit analysis (CBA). All three analyses measured costs using the same methodology but differed in their measure of effectiveness. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated for the CEA and the CUA by dividing the difference in average total costs by the difference in average total effects. The CEA estimated the incremental cost per sore throat day avoided. The number of sore throat days was derived from the primary outcome data. The CUA estimated the incremental cost per QALY gained. QALYs were derived using the SF-6D algorithm, which estimates utility values based on responses to the SF-12, which was administered at baseline and 6, 12, 18 and 24 months post randomisation and at the time of a sore throat episode. The CBA estimated the incremental net benefit, comparing costs and benefits in monetary terms. Participants’ WTP values, estimated from the contingent valuation study, were multiplied by participants’ self-reported number of sore throat days to estimate the reduction in patient benefits in monetary terms; from this costs were subtracted to give the net benefit. Qualitative process evaluation Qualitative and cognitive interviews were carried out by researchers from Newcastle University for the feasibility study, pilot and main trial. Interviews were held with adult patients with acute tonsillitis who had been referred to ENT outpatient clinics for recurrent sore throats, ENT staff who were working at a National Trial of Tonsillectomy IN Adults (NATTINA) trial site and GPs. These interviews addressed the acceptability of the trial/treatments, unforeseen consequences from the perspective of participants and how patient experience may shape future research. Statistical analysis The primary statistical analysis was carried out on an intention-to-treat (ITT) basis, retaining patients in their randomised arms and including protocol violator and ineligible patients. Patients randomised to conservative management were asked to commit to ‘deferred surgery’. We anticipated that a number of patients would take the opportunity to switch to surgery. We also undertook sensitivity analyses, including a per-treatment (as treated) and a per-protocol analysis. The cumulative total number of sore throat days reported on a patient level was provided separately for each randomised arm. Negative binomial regression was used to compare these, adjusting for stratification variables (baseline severity as a fixed effect and site as a random effect). The summary comparative statistic reported is the incident rate ratio (IRR). The analysis took account of incomplete weekly returns by use of an exposure variable included in the model. The analysis of secondary outcomes followed a broadly similar strategy to the primary outcome. Analyses were adjusted for baseline severity and site, and repeated measures were analysed using random-effects models with appropriate error structure. Results Primary outcome The participants in this trial reported a median of 27 [interquartile range (IQR) 12–52] sore throats over the full 24 months of follow-up. Fewer sore throats were reported in the tonsillectomy arm (median 23, IQR 11–46) than in the conservative management arm (median 30, IQR 14–65). When the primary outcome (total sore throats) was compared between the two randomised arms on an ITT basis, a reduction in sore throats was seen in the tonsillectomy arm. The tonsillectomy arm had 0.53 [IRR, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43 to 0.65] times the total sore throat days over the 24-month period than those in the conservative management arm. Sensitivity analyses on the ITT population confirmed this result. The analysis of the per-protocol population of 224 participants had, on average, a greater reduction in the number of sore throats, with patients in the tonsillectomy arm having 0.42 (IRR 95% CI 0.31 to 0.55) times the total score throats compared with the conservative management arm. Around 25% of participants did not receive the treatment that they were randomised to, which meant that some opted not to receive a tonsillectomy and some opted to cross to tonsillectomy. There is evidence to suggest that those with larger numbers of sore throats following randomisation were more likely to either opt for or remain in the tonsillectomy arm. Conversely, those with slightly smaller numbers of sore throats following randomisation were more likely to remain in conservative management or opt out of the tonsillectomy arm. Despite these crossovers, the ITT, per-protocol and per-treated analyses all confirmed that there was a significant reduction in total sore throats for those randomised to tonsillectomy. Secondary outcome measures The benefits of tonsillectomy were also seen in the secondary outcome measures. Tonsillectomy Outcome Inventory-14 (TOI-14) scores improved in both arms, but show a greater improvement in the tonsillectomy arm than the conservative management arm, where at 12 months the difference between the mean scores was –13.17 units (95% CI –17.41 to –8.92 units), indicating a reduction in symptoms. The SF-12 MCS and SF-12 PCS also show significant and beneficial differences in favour of the tonsillectomy arm over time [SF-12 MCS scores 3.71 units higher (95% CI 2.10 to 5.47) and SF-12 PCS 2.77 units higher (95% CI 0.30 to 5.23) in the tonsillectomy arm than the conservative management arm]. Adverse events There were 52 episodes of post-operative haemorrhage reported in 231 participants undergoing tonsillectomy (22.5%). Of these episodes, 35 were reported as SAEs: 8 as mild events, 22 as moderate events and 5 as severe events. No deaths were reported. Seventeen episodes were recorded as AEs, for which patients did not attend hospital. All episodes of bleeding were managed conservatively with no returns to theatre. Economic evaluation On average, tonsillectomy was more costly and more effective than conservative management. In the CEA, the incremental cost to avoid a sore throat episode was £24 per sore throat day. From the contingent valuation, the mean WTP to avoid a sore throat day was £43 (95% CI £2 to £100). In the CUA, tonsillectomy had an 87% probability of being considered cost-effective at a £5000 threshold for an additional QALY; this increased to 100% as the threshold values for an additional QALY increased. In the CBA, tonsillectomy had a 69% probability of having a higher net benefit than conservative management. Qualitative study Trial processes were deemed as acceptable, with only a few sites experiencing barriers to treatment. The use of technology to collect data was particularly well received. However, there were some challenges with recruitment, particularly for staff who lacked equipoise. ENT staff alluded to having to negotiate surgery dates with patients, which, at times, meant that they had to deviate from trial protocols. Some patients did not fully understand the process of randomisation. Patients who had received surgery were unanimous in reporting to be happy to have undertaken this, despite the challenging recovery period. Limitations There was some evidence that those with the most severe extent of disease were reluctant to enter the study (around 5 points higher scores overall on the TOI-14). Some symptoms may not be a result of tonsillitis. Not all patients were offered, or chose, to watch the trial recruitment video. The ITT analysis is likely to offer a conservative underestimate of the true impact of tonsillectomy in reducing sore throat days, as a result of patients crossing over to receive tonsillectomy. A challenge of the economic evaluation was the progressive loss of data over the 24-month follow-up. Conclusions Tonsillectomy in adults is a clinically effective intervention. It was more costly but had a high probability of being considered cost-effective over the range of analyses conducted. Participants with recurrent tonsillitis, who met current UK NHS guidelines to undergo tonsillectomy, suffered significantly fewer sore throat days over 24 months than similar participants treated conservatively. How should health services react? Pre-NATTINA, UK guidelines were a translation of level 1 evidence in children, applied to adults. Access to tonsillectomy in the UK was governed by application of national guidance, which is predicated on a qualifying number of episodes of tonsillitis. NATTINA participants in the tonsillectomy arm reported, on average, fewer healthcare contacts, fewer sore throat days and higher QALYs than those in the conservative management arm. Within the UK, tonsillectomy is listed as a ‘procedure of limited clinical value’ (The Royal College of Surgeons of England. Procedures of Limited Clinical Value: Royal College of Surgeons Briefing. London: The Royal College of Surgeons of England; 2011). To the best of our knowledge, NATTINA is the first definitive trial to demonstrate that tonsillectomy performed according to the current UK national guidelines is effective for patients, and the probability of it being considered cost-effective is high. Guideline reassessment, in particular how guidelines translate into healthcare commissioning, is called for. How should practitioners and patients respond to these findings? We have identified communication issues at the primary–secondary care interface in our qualitative work. There is, therefore, a need to convert the findings of NATTINA into a practical decision support tool for patients and surgeons. Implications for research (in priority order) The top research priority to emerge from NATTINA is to determine the optimum timing of tonsillectomy in adults with recurrent acute tonsillitis. Work is required also to optimise metrics for disease burden severity, and to exploit the novel real-time data collection methods elaborated in NATTINA. There is also a need to better understand optimum treatment strategies, including oral steroids, for tonsillitis in primary care. Trial registration This trial is registered as ISRCTN55284102. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/146/06) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 31. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Abstract Objectives To assess the feasibility of conducting a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess whether avoiding ureteric drainage is superior to performing ureteric drainage after Uncomplicated Ureteroscopy and/or Flexible Ureterorenoscopy (URS/FURS) treatment of a urinary tract stone in improving patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) and 30‐day unplanned readmission rates. A secondary objective was to understand current practice of urologists regarding ureteric drainage after uncomplicated URS/FURS (UU). Material and methods We undertook an online survey of urologists, circulated amongst members of international urological societies and through social media platforms. Uncomplicated URS/FURS was defined as completion of URS/FURS treatment for a urinary tract stone, with the absence of: ureteral trauma, residual fragments requiring further lithotripsy procedures, significant bleeding, perforation, prior urinary tract infection or pregnancy. The ureteric drainage options considered included an indwelling stent, stent on a string or a ureteric catheter. The primary outcome was to determine the proportion of urologists willing to take part in a RCT, randomising patients after UU to a “no ureteric drainage” arm or ureteric drainage arm. Secondary outcomes included determining in their current practice, the proportion of clinicians performing routine ureteric drainage after UU, the reasons for performing ureteric drainage following UU and their preferred optimal duration for ureteric drainage if it is used. The study was reported according to the Checklist for Reporting Results of Internet E‐Surveys (CHERRIES). Results Total of 468 respondents from 45 countries took part in the survey, of whom 303 completed the entire survey (65%). The majority agreed that they would be willing to randomise patients (244/303, 81%) in the proposed RCT. Perceived lack of equipoise to randomise was the most common reason for not being willing to participate (59/303, 19%). 92% (308/335) reported that they use ureteric drainage after UU. This was most often due to wanting to prevent possible complications from post‐operative ureteric oedema (77%) or to aid passage of small fragments (43%). Complexity of the case (i.e. impacted stone 90%) and length of the procedure (46%) were the most important intraoperative factors influencing the decision to use ureteric drainage post procedure. If required, the median stated ideal duration of ureteric drainage was 5 days (IQR: 3–7 days) after UU. If having UU personally, 30% would want no stent postoperatively and over half would prefer a stent on a string. Conclusion We have highlighted wide variation in practice regarding ureteric drainage after UU. Our results support the feasibility of an RCT evaluating if no ureteric drainage is superior to ureteric drainage in improving PROMs and 30‐day unplanned readmission rates following UU.

Background: Persistent throat symptoms are commonly attributed to ‘laryngopharyngeal reflux’. Despite a limited evidence base, these symptoms are increasingly being treated in primary care with proton pump inhibitors. Objective: To assess the value of proton pump inhibitor therapy in patients with persistent throat symptoms. Design: This was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised Phase III trial. Setting: This was a multicentre UK trial in eight UK ear, nose and throat departments. Participants: A total of 346 participants aged ≥ 18 years with persistent throat symptoms and a Reflux Symptom Index score of ≥ 10, exclusive of the dyspepsia item, were recruited. Intervention: Random allocation (1 : 1 ratio) to either 30 mg of lansoprazole twice daily or matched placebo for 16 weeks. Main outcome measure: Symptomatic response (i.e. total Reflux Symptom Index score after 16 weeks of therapy). Results: A total of 1427 patients were screened and 346 were randomised. The mean age was 52 years (standard deviation 13.7 years, range 20–84 years); 150 (43%) participants were male and 196 (57%) were female; 184 (53%) participants had a mild Reflux Symptom Index minus the heartburn/dyspepsia item and 162 (47%) had a severe Reflux Symptom Index minus the heartburn/dyspepsia item. A total of 172 patients were randomised to lansoprazole and 174 were randomised to placebo. Main outcomes: A total of 267 participants completed the primary end-point visit (lansoprazole, n = 127; placebo, n = 140), of whom 220 did so between 14 and 20 weeks post randomisation (‘compliant’ group); 102 received lansoprazole and 118 received placebo. The mean Reflux Symptom Index scores at baseline were similar [lansoprazole 22.0 (standard deviation 8.0), placebo 21.7 (standard deviation 7.1), overall 21.9 (standard deviation 7.5)]. The mean Reflux Symptom Index scores at 16 weeks reduced from baseline in both groups [overall 17.4 (standard deviation 9.9), lansoprazole 17.4 (standard deviation 9.9), placebo 15.6 (standard deviation 9.8)]. Lansoprazole participants had estimated Reflux Symptom Index scores at 16 weeks that were 1.9 points higher (worse) than those of placebo participants (95% confidence interval –0.3 to 4.2; padj = 0.096), adjusted for site and baseline severity. Secondary outcomes: Ninety-five (43%) participants achieved a Reflux Symptom Index score in the normal range (

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities impact on the survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients, but there is limited understanding of the explanations of the inequality, particularly in long-term survival.Methods: Patients were recruited from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer between 1999 and 2001 and were linked to mortality data as at 30th September 2013. Socioeconomic status was determined using the area-based Carstairs 2001 index. Overall and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method with 95% confidence intervals (CI's) at 1-, 5-, and 12-years. Net survival at 1-, 5-, and 12-years was also computed with 95% CIs. Cox proportional hazard models with 95% CIs were used to determine the explanations for the inequality in survival by all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality with 95% CIs.Results: Most patients were from the most deprived group, and were more likely to smoke, drink, have cancer of a higher stage and have a lower WHO Performance Status. A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall and disease-specific survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for patients with HNC. Following the adjustment for multiple patient, tumor and treatment factors, the inequality in survival for patients with HNC had attenuated and was no longer statistically significant at 1-, 5-, and 12-years.Conclusion: A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall, disease-specific and net survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for HNC patients in Scotland from 1999 to 2001. This study concludes that explanations for the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC are not straightforward, and that many factors including various patient, tumor and treatment factors play a part in the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC.

Este artículo reseña una perspectiva microeconómica del diseño institucional y las políticas públicas, concentrándose en cómo las interrelaciones entre los votantes, los políticos y los burócratas determinan la eficiencia de las instituciones políticas y por ende de las políticas públicas. El artículo resalta la importancia de los costos de información y de vigilancia, la competencia y las características estructurales de las instituciones en el logro de resultados eficientes y también la forma en que los científicos sociales enfrentan las fallas de los mercados político y burocrático.

One way of obtaining a numerical indicator of the reliability of a classroom test is to use Holt's reliability, a method designed to establish the extent to which a pattern of responses exists in the data. The calculation is based on the principle that variability exists in individual item scores. If student achievement and item variability can explain all the variability of the individual item sores, the test is reliable. Using a reliability measurement of this kind has substantial test-design implications.

Data from the General Housing Survey and the 1991 Census Samples of Anonymised Records were used to examine the ethnic aspects of self-employment in the UK labor market. The analysis focused on how push and pull factors cause ethnic minority groups to become self-employed. The findings provided strong evidence that discrimination is a major factor in ethnic minority self-employment, except for the Chinese whose average income is less in self-employment compared to their white counterparts.

ARTnews celebrates its 90th anniversary with a sampling of articles and letters that have appeared in the magazine through the years. The articles include 'Jackson Pollock paints a picture' and 'Modern Art Museum opens in New York.'

Business cycle costs from an individual basis cannot be measured precisely. Among the issues to be considered are that costs are part of an individual's welfare and that his utility function and risks should also be considered. The recession cost measure as proposed by Clark, Leslie and Symons which are, in turn, based on the study by Robert Lucas, was justified as a standard textbook risk premium.

We investigate how fairness concerns influence individual behaviour in social dilemmas. Using a Sequential Prisoner's Dilemma experiment we analyse the extent to which co-operation is conditional on first-mover co-operation, repetition, economic incentives, subject pool (United Kingdom vs. United States) and gender. We find the most important variable influencing co-operation is the first-mover's choice, supporting the argument that co-operative behaviour in social dilemmas reflects reciprocation rather than unconditional altruism. However, we also find that co-operation decreases with repetition, and reciprocation falls as its material cost rises.

Atomic physicist Ronald Geballe was born on Feb 7, 1918 in Redding, CA. He studied at the University of California in Berkeley where he earned his BS in 1938, an MA in 1949, and a PhD in physics in 1943. Geballe died on Oct 28, 1998.

In this paper we are interested a class of issues that are especially difficult to address through public engagement processes. These are issues which should (or must) be addressed in the current period but have associated costs, benefits, and impacts that are concentrated in the future. These issues – which might be called ‘future issues’ – are difficult to manage democratically because any public opinions that might help guide policy decisions have not yet developed. At the same time, governments and administrative agencies are often compelled to act before the full implications of these issues are evident and before potentially affected publics are formed and aware of the implications or consequences of these developments. At best, governments and administrators can try to facilitate positive developments or prevent negative outcomes by anticipating potential concerns or conflicts associated with future issues and addressing these in the current period. We argue that small deliberative forums that combine random-selection, education and deliberation are a practical solution to this dilemma. These small forums – or minipublics – can be used to simulate discursive opinions on subjects that have not, or have not yet become topics of widespread public discourses. Our analysis is based on data from a minipublic on salmon genomics that was conducted in November 2008 by the Centre for Applied Ethics at the University of British Columbia. We argue that participating in deliberative events like this one can help citizens develop substantive opinions on technologically and temporally complex issues. We also argue that minipublics can be used to develop anticipatory maps of collectively sanctioned recommendations and discursively developed concerns or considerations. Minipublics on future issues can offer policy makers important insights into the likely parameters of public debates that have not – or have not yet – occurred.