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BackgroundObesity is an important risk factor for many chronic diseases. Mobile health interventions such as smartphone apps can potentially provide a convenient low-cost addition to other obesity reduction strategies. ObjectiveThis study aimed to estimate the impacts on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and health system costs over the remainder of the life span of the New Zealand population (N=4.4 million) for a smartphone app promotion intervention in 1 calendar year (2011) using currently available apps for weight loss. MethodsThe intervention was a national mass media promotion of selected smartphone apps for weight loss compared with no dedicated promotion. A multistate life table model including 14 body mass index–related diseases was used to estimate QALYs gained and health systems costs. A lifetime horizon, 3% discount rate, and health system perspective were used. The proportion of the target population receiving the intervention (1.36%) was calculated using the best evidence for the proportion who have access to smartphones, are likely to see the mass media campaign promoting the app, are likely to download a weight loss app, and are likely to continue using this app. ResultsIn the base-case model, the smartphone app promotion intervention generated 29 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 14-52) and cost the health system US $1.6 million (95% UI: 1.1-2.0 million) with the standard download rate. Under plausible assumptions, QALYs increased to 59 (95% UI: 27-107) and costs decreased to US $1.2 million (95% UI: 0.5-1.8) when standard download rates were doubled. Costs per QALY gained were US $53,600 for the standard download rate and US $20,100 when download rates were doubled. On the basis of a threshold of US $30,000 per QALY, this intervention was cost-effective for Māori when the standard download rates were increased by 50% and also for the total population when download rates were doubled. ConclusionsIn this modeling study, the mass media promotion of a smartphone app for weight loss produced relatively small health gains on a population level and was of borderline cost-effectiveness for the total population. Nevertheless, the scope for this type of intervention may expand with increasing smartphone use, more easy-to-use and effective apps becoming available, and with recommendations to use such apps being integrated into dietary counseling by health workers.

The work proposes a mathematical model of the process of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolved in New Zealand. The model uses a system of differential equations which emanate from natural assumptions on some probability measure and evolution of this measure on evolving family of simplexes. The authors tried to create the model which, at one hand, is simple and easy to follow. and, at the other hand, reflects the observed epidemic process correctly. The practical aim was to come to justifiable estimations of important parameters like the rate of infection as function of time, thus quantifying effectiveness of the Government measures. Another parameters estimated were the probability distribution of detection times and recovery times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background There is little systematic assessment of how total health expenditure is distributed across diseases and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to use statistical methods to disaggregate all publicly funded health expenditure by disease and comorbidities in order to answer three research questions: (1) What is health expenditure by disease phase for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in New Zealand? (2) Is the cost of having two NCDs more or less than that expected given the independent costs of each NCD? (3) How is total health spending disaggregated by NCDs across age and by sex? Methods and findings We used linked data for all adult New Zealanders for publicly funded events, including hospitalisation, outpatient, pharmaceutical, laboratory testing, and primary care from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2014. These data include 18.9 million person-years and $26.4 billion in spending (US$ 2016). We used case definition algorithms to identify if a person had any of six NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease [CVD], diabetes, musculoskeletal, neurological, and a chronic lung/liver/kidney [LLK] disease). Indicator variables were used to identify the presence of any of the 15 possible comorbidity pairings of these six NCDs. Regression was used to estimate excess annual health expenditure per person. Cause deletion methods were used to estimate total population expenditure by disease. A majority (59%) of health expenditure was attributable to NCDs. Expenditure due to diseases was generally highest in the year of diagnosis and year of death. A person having two diseases simultaneously generally had greater health expenditure than the expected sum of having the diseases separately, for all 15 comorbidity pairs except the CVD-cancer pair. For example, a 60-64-year-old female with none of the six NCDs had $633 per annum expenditure. If she had both CVD and chronic LLK, additional expenditure for CVD separately was $6,443/$839/$9,225 for the first year of diagnosis/prevalent years/last year of life if dying of CVD; additional expenditure for chronic LLK separately was $6,443/$1,291/$9,051; and the additional comorbidity expenditure of having both CVD and LLK was $2,456 (95% confidence interval [CI] $2,238-$2,674). The pattern was similar for males (e.g., additional comorbidity expenditure for a 60-64-year-old male with CVD and chronic LLK was $2,498 [95% CI $2,264-$2,632]). In addition to this, the excess comorbidity costs for a person with two diseases was greater at younger ages, e.g., excess expenditure for 45-49-year-old males with CVD and chronic LLK was 10 times higher than for 75-79-year-old males and six times higher for females. At the population level, 23.8% of total health expenditure was attributable to higher costs of having one of the 15 comorbidity pairs over and above the six NCDs separately; of the remaining expenditure, CVD accounted for 18.7%, followed by musculoskeletal (16.2%), neurological (14.4%), cancer (14.1%), chronic LLK disease (7.4%), and diabetes (5.5%). Major limitations included incomplete linkage to all costed events (although these were largely non-NCD events) and missing private expenditure. Conclusions The costs of having two NCDs simultaneously is typically superadditive, and more so for younger adults. Neurological and musculoskeletal diseases contributed the largest health system costs, in accord with burden of disease studies finding that they contribute large morbidity. Just as burden of disease methodology has advanced the understanding of disease burden, there is a need to create disease-based costing studies that facilitate the disaggregation of health budgets at a national level., Author(s): Tony Blakely 1,2,*, Giorgi Kvizhinadze 1, June Atkinson 1, Joseph Dieleman 3, Philip Clarke 2,4 Introduction The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) has achieved the vision of a coherent [...]

Background The anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) monoclonal antibody trastuzumab improves outcomes in patients with node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer. Given trastuzumab's high cost, we aimed to estimate its cost-effectiveness by heterogeneity in age and estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, which has previously been unexplored, to assist prioritisation. Methods and Findings A cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov macro-simulation model, with a lifetime horizon, comparing a 12-mo regimen of trastuzumab with chemotherapy alone using the latest (2014) effectiveness measures from landmark randomised trials. A New Zealand (NZ) health system perspective was adopted, employing high-quality national administrative data. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years for trastuzumab versus chemotherapy alone are two times higher (2.33 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 2.29-2.37) for the worst prognosis (ER-/PR-) subtype compared to the best prognosis (ER+/PR+) subtype, causing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the former to be less than half those of the latter for the age groups from 25-29 to 90-94 y (0.44 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 0.43-0.45). If we were to strictly apply an arbitrary cost-effectiveness threshold equal to the NZ gross domestic product per capita (2011 purchasing power parity [PPP]-adjusted: US$30,300; [euro]23,700; £21,200), our study suggests that trastuzumab (2011 PPP-adjusted US$45,400/[euro]35,900/£21,900 for 1 y at formulary prices) may not be cost-effective for ER+ (which are 61% of all) node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer patients but cost-effective for ER-/PR- subtypes (37% of all cases) to age 69 y. Market entry of trastuzumab biosimilars will likely reduce the ICER to below this threshold for premenopausal ER+/PR- cancer but not for ER+/PR+ cancer. Sensitivity analysis using the best-case effectiveness measure for ER+ cancer had the same result. A key limitation was a lack of treatment-effect data by hormone receptor subtype. Heterogeneity was restricted to age and hormone receptor status; tumour size/grade heterogeneity could be explored in future work. Conclusions This study highlights how cost-effectiveness can vary greatly by heterogeneity in age and hormone receptor subtype. Resource allocation and licensing of subsidised therapies such as trastuzumab should consider demographic and clinical heterogeneity; there is currently a profound disconnect between how funding decisions are made (largely agnostic to heterogeneity) and the principles of personalised medicine., Author(s): William Leung 1,2,*, Giorgi Kvizhinadze 1, Nisha Nair 1, Tony Blakely 1 Introduction Between 12% and 25% of breast cancer cases are human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) [...]

• CT lung cancer screening is unlikely to be cost-effective in NZ for the target group. • The overall incremental cost effectiveness ratio was US$44,000 per QALY gained. • Screening maybe cost-effective for Māori, who have a high lung cancer disease burden. The cost-effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer is uncertain. This study estimated the health gains, costs (net health system, and including 'unrelated') and cost-effectiveness of biennial LDCT screening among 55−74 years olds with a smoking history of at least 30 pack years, and (if a former smoker) having quit within last 15 years, in New Zealand. We used a macrosimulation stage shift model with New Zealand-specific lung cancer incidence rates and intervention parameters from the National Lung Screening Trial, a health system perspective, and a lifetime horizon for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs discounted at 3% per annum. We also examined heterogeneity by gender, ethnicity (Māori (indigenous population) versus non-Māori), age and smoking status. We estimated 0.067 QALYs gained (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 0.044 to 0.095) per eligible participant, at a cost of US$2843 ($2067−3797; 2011 $US). The overall incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$44,000 per QALY gained (95 % UI US$27,000 to US$70,000). The ICER was substantially lower for Māori, at US$26,000 per QALY gained (95 % UI US$17,000 to US$39,000). The cost-effectiveness varied by socio-demographics, from US$21,000 for 70−74 year old Māori females to US$60,000 for 55−59 year old non-Māori males. The two scenarios that lowered the ICER the most were halving the screening costs (ICER = US$33,000 per QALY), and improving the sensitivity (from 93.8% to 98%) and specificity (from 73.4% to 95%) of the screening test (ICER = US$23,000 per QALY). Based on a threshold of GDP per capita per QALY gained (i.e. US$30,000), LDCT screening for lung cancer is unlikely to be cost-effective in New Zealand for the proposed target population under our modelling assumptions. However, it is likely to be cost-effective for Māori, a population group which carries a disproportionately high disease burden from lung cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of brief weight-loss counselling by dietitian-trained practice nurses, in a high-income-country case study.Design: A literature search of the impact of dietary counselling on BMI was performed to source the 'best' effect size for use in modelling. This was combined with multiple other input parameters (e.g. epidemiological and cost parameters for obesity-related diseases, likely uptake of counselling) in an established multistate life-table model with fourteen parallel BMI-related disease life tables using a 3 % discount rate.Setting: New Zealand (NZ).Participants: We calculated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained and health-system costs over the remainder of the lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n 4·4 million).Results: Counselling was estimated to result in an increase of 250 QALY (95 % uncertainty interval -70, 560 QALY) over the population's lifetime. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 2011 $NZ 138 200 per QALY gained (2018 $US 102 700). Per capita QALY gains were higher for Māori (Indigenous population) than for non-Māori, but were still not cost-effective. If willingness-to-pay was set to the level of gross domestic product per capita per QALY gained (i.e. 2011 $NZ 45 000 or 2018 $US 33 400), the probability that the intervention would be cost-effective was 2 %.Conclusions: The study provides modelling-level evidence that brief dietary counselling for weight loss in primary care generates relatively small health gains at the population level and is unlikely to be cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Low-dose CT screening for lung cancer is unlikely to be cost-effective in NZ. • The overall incremental cost effectiveness ratio was US$104,000 per QALY gained. • Even under highly optimistic scenarios the cost-effectiveness was marginal. Abstract Objectives The cost-effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer is uncertain. This study estimated the health gains, costs (net health system, and including 'unrelated') and cost-effectiveness of biennial LDCT screening among 55–74 years olds with a smoking history of at least 30 pack years, and (if a former smoker) having quit within last 15 years, in New Zealand. Methods We used a macrosimulation stage shift model with New Zealand-specific lung cancer incidence rates and intervention parameters from the National Lung Screening Trial, a health system perspective, and a lifetime horizon for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs discounted at 3% per annum. We also examined heterogeneity by gender, ethnicity (Māori (indigenous population) versus non-Māori), age and current versus ex-smoking status. Results and Conclusion We estimated 0.037 QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.024–0.053) per eligible participant, at a cost of US$3606 ($2689–4681). The overall incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$104,000 per QALY gained (95% UI US$59,000–US$175,000). The cost-effectiveness varied moderately by socio-demographics, with the 'best' ICER being US$52,000 for 70–74 year old Māori females and the 'worst' ICER being US$142,000 for 55–59 year old non-Māori females. The ICER varied little by current smoking status, due to higher competing mortality risk limiting QALY gains for current smokers. The two scenarios that lowered the ICER the most were increasing the screening uptake to 100% (ICER = US$50,000 per QALY), and improving the sensitivity (from 93.8%–98%) and specificity (from 73.4%–95%) of the screening test (ICER = US$42,000 per QALY). Based on a threshold of GDP per capita per QALY gained (i.e. US$30,000), LDCT screening for lung cancer is unlikely to be cost-effective in New Zealand for any sociodemographic group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is some evidence that home safety assessment and modification (HSAM) is effective in reducing falls in older people. But there are various knowledge gaps, including around cost-effectiveness and also the impacts at a health district-level. Methods and findings: A previously established Markov macro-simulation model built for the whole New Zealand (NZ) population (Pega et al 2016, Injury Prevention) was enhanced and adapted to a health district level. This district was Counties Manukau District Health Board, which hosts 42,000 people aged 65+ years. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% was used for both health gain and costs. Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a systematic review, and NZ-specific intervention costs were extracted from a randomized controlled trial. In the 65+ age-group in this health district, the HSAM program was estimated to achieve health gains of 2800 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 547 to 5280). The net health system cost was estimated at NZ$8.44 million (95% UI: $663 to $14.3 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at NZ$5480 suggesting HSAM is cost-effective (95%UI: cost saving to NZ$15,300 [equivalent to US$10,300]). Targeting HSAM only to people age 65+ or 75+ with previous injurious falls was estimated to be particularly cost-effective (ICERs: $700 and $832, respectively) with the latter intervention being cost-saving. There was no evidence for differential cost-effectiveness by sex or by ethnicity: Māori (Indigenous population) vs non-Māori. Conclusions: This modeling study suggests that a HSAM program could produce considerable health gain and be cost-effective for older people at a health district level. Nevertheless, comparisons may be desirable with other falls prevention interventions such as group exercise programs, which also provide social contact and may prevent various chronic diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Screening programs consistently underserve indigenous populations despite a higher overall burden of cancer. In this study, we explore the likely health gains and cost-effectiveness of a national colorectal cancer screening program for the indigenous Māori population of New Zealand (NZ). Methods: A Markov model estimated: health benefits (quality-adjusted life-year; QALY), costs, and cost-effectiveness of biennial immunochemical fecal occult blood testing (FOBTi) of 50- to 74-year-olds from 2011. Input parameters came from literature reviews, the NZ Bowel Screening Programme Pilot, and NZ linked health datasets. Equity analyses substituted non-Māori values for Māori values of background (noncolorectal cancer) morbidity and mortality, colorectal cancer survival and incidence, screening coverage, and stage-specific survival. We measured the change in "quality-adjusted life expectancy" (QALE) as a result of the intervention. Results: Based upon a threshold of GDP per capita (NZ$45,000), colorectal cancer screening in NZ using FOBTi is cost-effective: NZ$2,930 (US$1,970) per QALY gained [95% uncertainty interval: cost saving to $6,850 (US$4,610)]. Modeled health gains per capita for Māori were less than for non-Māori: half for 50- to 54-year-olds (0.031 QALYs per person for Māori vs. 0.058 for non-Māori), and a fifth (0.003 c.f. 0.016) for 70- to 74-year-olds and ethnic inequalities in QALE increased with colorectal cancer screening. Conclusions: Colorectal cancer screening in NZ using FOBTi is likely to be cost-effective but risks increasing inequalities in health for Māori. Impact: To avoid or mitigate the generation of further health inequalities, attention should be given to underserved population groups when planning and implementing screening programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. Objective: To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. Methods: An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). Results: For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). Conclusions: This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization recommends all countries consider screening for H. pylori to prevent gastric cancer. We therefore aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a H. pylori serology-based screening program in New Zealand, a country that includes population groups with relatively high gastric cancer rates.Methods: A Markov model was developed using life-tables and morbidity data from a national burden of disease study. The modelled screening program reduced the incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer attributable to H. pylori, if infection was identified by serology screening, and for the population expected to be reached by the screening program. A health system perspective was taken and detailed individual-level costing data was used.Results: For adults aged 25-69 years old, nation-wide screening for H. pylori was found to have an incremental cost of US$196 million (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI]: $182-$211 million) with health gains of 14,200 QALYs (95% UI: 5,100-26,300). Cost per QALY gained was US$16,500 ($7,600-$38,400) in the total population and 17% (6%-29%) of future gastric cancer cases could be averted with lifetime follow-up. A targeted screening program for Māori only (indigenous population), was more cost-effective at US$8,000 ($3,800-$18,500) per QALY.Conclusions: This modeling study found that H. pylori screening was likely to be cost-effective in this high-income country, particularly for the indigenous population. While further research is needed to help clarify the precise benefits, costs and adverse effects of such screening programs, there seems a reasonable case for policy-makers to give pilot programs consideration, particularly for any population groups with relatively elevated rates of gastric cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856.]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Single- and multiple-fraction external beam radiotherapy (SFX-EBRT and MFX-EBRT) are palliative treatment options for localized metastatic bone pain. MFX is the preferred choice in many developed countries. Evidence shows little difference in how effectively SFX and MFX reduce pain. However, SFX is associated with higher retreatment and (in one meta-analysis) pathological fracture rates. MFX is, however, more time-consuming and expensive. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of SFX versus MFX for metastatic bone pain in breast, prostate and lung cancer in New Zealand.Methods: We constructed a Markov microsimulation model to estimate health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years or QALYs), health system costs (in real 2011 NZ dollars) and cost-effectiveness. The model was populated using effect estimates from randomized controlled trials and other studies, and New Zealand cancer and cost data. Disability weights from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study were used in estimating QALYs.Results: Across all three cancers, QALY gains were similar for SFX compared to MFX, and per patient costs were less for SFX than MFX, with a difference of NZ$1469 (95% uncertainty interval $1112 to $1886) for lung cancer, $1316 ($810 to $1854) for prostate cancer and $1344 ($855 to $1846) for breast cancer. Accordingly, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, SFX was the preferable treatment option. Various sensitivity analyses did not overturn the clear preference for SFX.Conclusion: For all three cancers, SFX was clearly more cost-effective than MFX. This adds to the case for desisting from offering MFX to patients with metastatic bone pain, from a cost-effectiveness angle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is momentum internationally to improve coordination of complex care pathways. Robust evaluations of such interventions are scarce. This paper evaluates the cost-utility of cancer care coordinators for stage III colon cancer patients, who generally require surgery followed by chemotherapy. Methods: We compared a hospital-based nurse cancer care coordinator (CCC) with 'business-as-usual' (no dedicated coordination service) in stage III colon cancer patients in New Zealand. A discrete event microsimulation model was constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs from a health system perspective. We used New Zealand data on colon cancer incidence, survival, and mortality as baseline input parameters for the model. We specified intervention input parameters using available literature and expert estimates. For example, that a CCC would improve the coverage of chemotherapy by 33 % (ranging from 9 to 65 %), reduce the time to surgery by 20 % (3 to 48 %), reduce the time to chemotherapy by 20 % (3 to 48 %), and reduce patient anxiety (reduction in disability weight of 33 %, ranging from 0 to 55 %). Results: Much of the direct cost of a nurse CCC was balanced by savings in business-as-usual care coordination. Much of the health gain was through increased coverage of chemotherapy with a CCC (especially older patients), and reduced time to chemotherapy. Compared to 'business-as-usual', the cost per QALY of the CCC programme was $NZ 18,900 (≈ $US 15,600; 95 % UI: $NZ 13,400 to 24,600). By age, the CCC intervention was more cost-effective for colon cancer patients < 65 years ($NZ 9,400 per QALY). By ethnicity, the health gains were larger for Māori, but so too were the costs, meaning the cost-effectiveness was roughly comparable between ethnic groups. Conclusions: Such a nurse-led CCC intervention in New Zealand has acceptable cost-effectiveness for stage III colon cancer, meaning it probably merits funding. Each CCC programme will differ in its likely health gains and costs, making generalisation from this evaluation to other CCC interventions difficult. However, this evaluation suggests that CCC interventions that increase coverage of, and reduce time to, effective treatments may be cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 [“business as usual,” BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. Methods and Findings: We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000–419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Conclusions: Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We aimed to estimate the maximum intervention cost (EMIC) a society could invest in a life-saving intervention at different ages while remaining cost-effective according to a user-specified cost-effectiveness threshold. Methods: New Zealand (NZ) was used as a case study, and a health system perspective was taken. Data from NZ life tables and morbidity data from a burden of disease study were used to estimate health-adjusted life-years (HALYs) gained by a life-saving intervention. Health system costs were estimated from a national database of all publicly funded health events (hospitalizations, outpatient events, pharmaceuticals, etc.). For illustrative purposes we followed the WHO-CHOICE approach and used a cost-effectiveness threshold of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (NZ$45,000 or US$30,000 per HALY). We then calculated EMICs for an “ideal” life-saving intervention that fully returned survivors to the same average morbidity, mortality, and cost trajectories as the rest of their cohort. Findings: The EMIC of the “ideal” life-saving intervention varied markedly by age: NZ$1.3 million (US$880,000) for an intervention to save the life of a child, NZ$0.8 million (US$540,000) for a 50-year-old, and NZ$0.235 million (US$158,000) for an 80-year-old. These results were predictably very sensitive to the choice of discount rate and to the selected cost-effectiveness threshold. Using WHO data, we produced an online calculator to allow the performance of similar calculations for all other countries. Conclusions: We present an approach to estimating maximal cost-effective investment in life-saving health interventions, under various assumptions. Our online calculator allows this approach to be applied in other countries. Policymakers could use these estimates as a rapid screening tool to determine if more detailed cost-effectiveness analyses of potential life-saving interventions might be worthwhile or which proposed life-saving interventions are very unlikely to benefit from such additional research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Similar to many developed countries, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is provided only to girls in New Zealand and coverage is relatively low (47% in school-aged girls for dose 3). Some jurisdictions have already extended HPV vaccination to school-aged boys. Thus, exploration of the cost-utility of adding boys' vaccination is relevant. We modeled the incremental health gain and costs for extending the current girls-only program to boys, intensifying the current girls-only program to achieve 73% coverage, and extension of the intensive program to boys. Methods A Markov macro-simulation model, which accounted for herd immunity, was developed for an annual cohort of 12-year-olds in 2011 and included the future health states of: cervical cancer, pre-cancer (CIN I to III), genital warts, and three other HPV-related cancers. In each state, health sector costs, including additional health costs from extra life, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were accumulated. The model included New Zealand data on cancer incidence and survival, and other cause mortality (all by sex, age, ethnicity and deprivation). Results At an assumed local willingness-to-pay threshold of US$29,600, vaccination of 12-year-old boys to achieve the current coverage for girls would not be cost-effective, at US$61,400/QALY gained (95% UI $29,700 to $112,000; OECD purchasing power parities) compared to the current girls-only program, with an assumed vaccine cost of US$59 (NZ$113). This was dominated though by the intensified girls-only program; US$17,400/QALY gained (95% UI: dominant to $46,100). Adding boys to this intensified program was also not cost-effective; US$128,000/QALY gained, 95% UI: $61,900 to $247,000). Vaccination of boys was not found to be cost-effective, even for additional scenarios with very low vaccine or program administration costs - only when combined vaccine and administration costs were NZ$125 or lower per dose was vaccination of boys cost-effective. Conclusions These results suggest that adding boys to the girls-only HPV vaccination program in New Zealand is highly unlikely to be cost-effective. In order for vaccination of males to become cost-effective in New Zealand, vaccine would need to be supplied at very low prices and administration costs would need to be minimised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. Methods We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. Results For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. Conclusions Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The work proposes a mathematical model of the process of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolved in New Zealand. The model uses a system of differential equations which emanate from natural assumptions on some probability measure and evolution of this measure on evolving family of simplexes. The authors tried to create the model which, at one hand, is simple and easy to follow. and, at the other hand, reflects the observed epidemic process correctly. The practical aim was to come to justifiable estimations of important parameters like the rate of infection as function of time, thus quantifying effectiveness of the Government measures. Another parameters estimated were the probability distribution of detection times and recovery times., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s)., (© 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)

Objective: There are large inequities in the lung cancer burden for the Indigenous Māori population of New Zealand. We model the potential lifetime health gains, equity impacts and cost-effectiveness of a national low-dose CT (LDCT) screening programme for lung cancer in smokers aged 55-74 years with a 30 pack-year history, and for formers smokers who have quit within the last 15 years., Design: A Markov macrosimulation model estimated: health benefits (health-adjusted life-years (HALYs)), costs and cost-effectiveness of biennial LDCT screening. Input parameters came from literature and NZ-linked health datasets., Setting: New Zealand., Participants: Population aged 55-74 years in 2011., Interventions: Biennial LDCT screening for lung cancer compared with usual care., Outcome Measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated using the average difference in costs and HALYs between the screened and the unscreened populations. Equity analyses included substituting non-Māori values for Māori values of background morbidity, mortality and stage-specific survival. Changes in inequities in lung cancer survival and 'health-adjusted life expectancy' (HALE) were measured., Results: LDCT screening in NZ is likely to be cost-effective for the total population: NZ$34 400 per HALY gained (95% uncertainty interval NZ$27 500 to NZ$42 900) and for Māori separately (using a threshold of gross domestic product per capita NZ$45 000). Health gains per capita for Māori females were twice that for non-Māori females and 25% greater for Māori males compared with non-Māori males. LDCT screening will narrow absolute inequities in HALE and lung cancer mortality for Māori, but will slightly increase relative inequities in mortality from lung cancer (compared with non-Māori) due to differential stage-specific survival., Conclusion: A national biennial LDCT lung cancer screening programme in New Zealand is likely to be cost-effective, will improve total population health and reduce health inequities for Māori. Attention must be paid to addressing ethnic inequities in stage-specific lung cancer survival., Competing Interests: Competing interests: GK and MM report personal fees from Waitematā District Health Board during the conduct of the study. GK was also a coauthor on the prior CT lung publication (Jaine et al, 2018) and received grants from the NZ Health Research Council outside the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aim: To estimate the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness of cataract surgery when expedited as a falls prevention strategy (reducing the waiting time for surgery by 12 months) and as a routine procedure., Methods: An established injurious falls model designed for the New Zealand (NZ) population (aged 65+ years) was adapted. Key parameters relating to cataracts were sourced from the literature and the NZ Ministry of Health. A health system perspective with discounting at 3% was used., Results: Expedited cataract surgery for 1 year of incident cases was found to generate a total 240 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 161 to 360) at net health system costs of NZ$2.43 million (95% UI 2.02 to 2.82 million) over the remaining lifetimes of the surgery group. This intervention was cost-effective by widely accepted standards with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of NZ$10 600 (US$7540) (95% UI NZ$6030 to NZ$15 700) per QALY gained. The level of cost-effectiveness did not vary greatly by sex, ethnicity and previous fall history, but was higher for the 65-69 age group compared with the oldest age group of 85-89 years (NZ$7000 vs NZ$14 200 per QALY gained). Comparing cataract surgery with no surgery, the ICER was even more favourable at NZ$4380 (95% UI 2410 to 7210) per QALY. Considering only the benefits for vision improvement and excluding the benefits of falls prevention, it was still favourable at NZ$9870 per QALY., Conclusions: Expedited cataract surgery appears very cost-effective. Routine cataract surgery is itself very cost-effective, and its value appears largely driven by the falls prevention benefits., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Some falls prevention interventions for the older population appear cost-effective, but there is uncertainty about others. Therefore, we aimed to model three types of exercise programme each running for 25 years among 65+ year olds: (i) a peer-led group-based one; (ii) a home-based one and (iii) a commercial one., Methods: An established Markov model for studying falls prevention in New Zealand (NZ) was adapted to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Detailed NZ experimental, epidemiological and cost data were used for the base year 2011. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% applied. Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a Cochrane Review., Results: The intervention generating the greatest health gain and costing the least was the home-based exercise programme intervention. Lifetime health gains were estimated at 47 100 QALYs (95%uncertainty interval (UI) 22 300 to 74 400). Cost-effectiveness was high (ICER: US$4640 per QALY gained; (95% UI US$996 to 10 500)), and probably more so than a home safety assessment and modification intervention using the same basic model (ICER: US$6060). The peer-led group-based exercise programme was estimated to generate 42 000 QALYs with an ICER of US$9490. The commercially provided group programme was more expensive and less cost-effective (ICER: US$34 500). Further analyses by sex, age group and ethnicity (Indigenous Māori and non-Māori) for the peer-led group-intervention showed similar health gains and cost-effectiveness., Conclusions: Implementing any of these three types of exercise programme for falls prevention in older people could produce considerable health gain, but with the home-based version being likely to be the most cost-effective., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2019. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: This study aimed to improve on previous modelling work to determine the health gain, cost-utility and health equity impacts from home safety assessment and modification (HSAM) for reducing injurious falls in older people., Methods: The model was a Markov macrosimulation one that estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. The setting was a country with detailed epidemiological and cost data (New Zealand (NZ)) for 2011. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% was used (for both health gain and costs). Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a Cochrane systematic review and NZ-specific intervention costs were from a randomised controlled trial., Results: In the 65 years and above age group, the HSAM programme cost a total of US$98 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) US$65 to US$139 million) to implement nationally and the accrued net health system costs were US$74 million (95% UI: cost saving to US$132 million). Health gains were 34 000 QALYs (95% UI: 5000 to 65 000). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$6000 (95% UI: cost saving to US$13 000), suggesting that HSAM is highly cost-effective. Targeting HSAM only to older people with previous injurious falls and to older people aged 75 years and above were also cost-effective (ICERs=US$1000 and US$11 000, respectively). There was no evidence for differential cost-effectiveness by gender or by ethnicity (Indigenous New Zealanders: Māori vs non-Māori)., Conclusions: As per other studies, this modelling study indicates that the provision of an HSAM intervention produces considerable health gain and is highly cost-effective among older people. Targeting this intervention to older people with previous injurious falls is a promising initial approach before any scale up., Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12609000779279., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Background: Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ)., Methods: A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco., Results: All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted)., Conclusions: These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and methods of expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for specifying input parameters in health economic decision models (HEDM)., Methods: We created two samples using the National Health System Economic Evaluations Database: (1) 100 randomly selected HEDM studies to determine prevalence of EKE and (2) sixty studies using a formal EKE process to determine methods used., Results: Fifty-seven (57 percent) of the random sample included at least one EKE-derived parameter. Of these, six (10 percent) used a formal expert process. Thirty-four studies from our second sample of sixty studies (57 percent) described at least one aspect of the process (e.g., elicitation method) with reasonable clarity. In approximately two-thirds of studies the external experts estimated parameters de novo; the remainder confirmed or modified initial estimates provided by authors, or the method was unclear. The majority of elicitations obtained point estimates only, although a few studies asked experts to estimate ranges of parameter values., Conclusions: The use of EKE for parameter estimation is common in HEDMs, although there is room for improvement in the methods used.