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(1) Background: Liver metastases (LM) are the leading cause of death in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Despite advancements, relapse rates remain high and current prognostic nomograms lack accuracy. Our objective is to develop an interpretable neoadjuvant algorithm based on mathematical models to accurately predict individual risk, ensuring mathematical transparency and auditability. (2) Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 86 CRC patients with LM treated with neoadjuvant systemic therapy followed by complete surgical resection. A comprehensive analysis of 155 individual patient variables was performed. Logistic regression (LR) was utilized to develop the predictive model for relapse risk through significance testing and ANOVA analysis. Due to data limitations, gradient boosting machine (GBM) and synthetic data were also used. (3) Results: The model was based on data from 74 patients (12 were excluded). After a median follow-up of 58 months, 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate was 33% and 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 60.7%. Fifteen key variables were used to train the GBM model, which showed promising accuracy (0.82), sensitivity (0.59), and specificity (0.96) in predicting relapse. Similar results were obtained when external validation was performed as well. (4) Conclusions: This model offers an alternative for predicting individual relapse risk, aiding in personalized adjuvant therapy and follow-up strategies.

Background Immunodeficient mice engrafted with peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) are models to study new cancer immunotherapy agents. However, this approach is associated with xenograft-versus-host disease (xGVHD), which starts early after PBMC transfer and limits the duration and interpretation of experiments. Here, we explore different approaches to overcome xGVHD and better support the development of cancer immunotherapies.Methods Immunodeficient NOD-scid IL2Rgnull (NSG) mice were intravenously transferred with human PBMCs and subcutaneously co-engrafted with HT29 human colon carcinoma cells. Diverse strategies to reduce xGVHD while preserving the antitumor activity of human immune cells were evaluated: (1) ex vivo immune graft modification by depleting CD4+ T cells pre-transfer using magnetic beads, (2) post-transplantation cyclophosphamide administration to eliminate proliferating xenoreactive T-cell clones and (3) using major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I and II-deficient NSG mice: (Kb Db)null (IA)null (MHC-dKO NSG). Body weight and plasma murine alanine aminotransferase levels were measured as indicators of xGVHD and tumor size was measured every 2–3 days to monitor antitumor activity. The antitumor effects and pharmacodynamics of nivolumab plus ipilimumab and an anti-epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM)/CD3 T-cell engager (αEpCAM/CD3 bispecific antibody (BsAb)) were evaluated in the model.Results CD4+ T-cell depletion attenuates xGVHD but also abrogates the antitumor activity. Cyclophosphamide limits the antitumor response and does not substantially prevent xGVHD. In contrast, xGVHD was significantly attenuated in MHC-dKO NSG recipients, while the antitumor effect of human PBMCs was preserved. Furthermore, the administration of nivolumab plus ipilimumab caused exacerbated xGVHD in conventional NSG mice, thereby precluding the observation of their antitumor effects. Severe xGVHD did not occur in MHC-dKO NSG mice thus enabling the study of complete and durable tumor rejections. Similarly, NSG mice treated with an αEpCAM/CD3 BsAb showed complete tumor regressions, but died due to xGVHD. In contrast, MHC-dKO NSG mice on treatment with the αEpCAM/CD3 BsAb achieved complete tumor responses without severe xGVHD. A significant proportion of mice rendered tumor-free showed tumor rejection on rechallenge with HT29 cells without further treatment. Finally, tumor-infiltrating CD8+ T-cell number increase, activation and CD137 upregulation were observed on αEpCAM/CD3 BsAb treatment.Conclusion Humanized MHC-dKO immunodeficient mice allow and refine the preclinical testing of immunotherapy agents for which experimentation is precluded in conventional immunodeficient mice due to severe xGVHD.