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Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Three years of reanalysis and ground-based observations collected at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory are analyzed to document the properties of rain and boundary layer clouds and their relationship with the large-scale environment during general subsidence conditions and following cold front passages. Clouds in the wake of cold fronts exhibit on average a 10% higher propensity to precipitate and higher rain-to-cloud fraction than cloud found in general subsidence conditions. Similarities in the seasonal cycle of rain and of large-scale properties suggest that the large-scale conditions created by the cold front passage are responsible for the unique properties of the rain forming in its wake. The identification of monotonic relationships between rain-to-cloud fraction and rain rate with surface forcing and boundary layer stability parameters as well as between virga base height with stability and humidity measures further supports that large-scale conditions impact precipitation variability. That being said, these relationships between the large-scale and rain properties are less clear than those established between cloud and rain properties, suggesting that cloud macrophysics have a more direct impact on the properties of rain than the large-scale environment. The applicability of previously documented relationships between cloud thickness and rain properties is tested and the relationships adjusted to accommodate the complex shallow clouds and melting precipitation observed to occur in the ENA region. Establishing these relationships opens up opportunities for parametrization development and suggests that a realistic representation of precipitation properties in models relies on the accurate representation of both clouds and the large-scale environment., (©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.)

The present study explores the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to accurately reproduce the passage of extratropical cold fronts at the DOE-ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observation site on the Azores Islands. An analysis of three case studies is performed in which the impact of the WRF domain size, position of the model boundary relative to the ENA site, grid spacing, and spectral nudging conditions are explored. The results from these case studies indicate that model biases in the timing and duration of cold front passages change with the distance between the model domain boundary and the ENA site. For these three cases, if the western model boundary is further than 1500 km from the site, the front becomes too meridional and fails to reach the site, making 1000 km or 1500 km the optimal distances. In contrast, integrations with small distances (e.g., 500 km) between the site and domain boundaries have inadequate spatial spin-up, i.e. the domain is too small for the model to properly stabilize. For all 3 cases, regardless of domain size, the model has biases in its upper-level circulation that impact the position and timing of the front. However, this issue is most serious for 4000 km 2 domains and larger. For these domains, prolonged spectral nudging can correct cold front biases. As such, this analysis provides a framework to optimize the WRF model configuration necessary for a realistic hindcast of a cold front passage at a fixed location centered in a domain as large as computationally possible.

The rapid rate of discoveries of exoplanets has expanded the scope of the science possible for the remote detection of life beyond Earth. The Exoplanet Biosignatures Workshop Without Walls (EBWWW) held in 2016 engaged the international scientific community across diverse scientific disciplines, to assess the state of the science and technology in the search for life on exoplanets, and to identify paths for progress. The workshop activities resulted in five major review papers, which provide (1) an encyclopedic review of known and proposed biosignatures and models used to ascertain them (Schwieterman et al., 2018 in this issue); (2) an in-depth review of O 2 as a biosignature, rigorously examining the nuances of false positives and false negatives for evidence of life (Meadows et al., 2018 in this issue); (3) a Bayesian framework to comprehensively organize current understanding to quantify confidence in biosignature assessments (Catling et al., 2018 in this issue); (4) an extension of that Bayesian framework in anticipation of increasing planetary data and novel concepts of biosignatures (Walker et al., 2018 in this issue); and (5) a review of the upcoming telescope capabilities to characterize exoplanets and their environment (Fujii et al., 2018 in this issue). Because of the immense content of these review papers, this summary provides a guide to their complementary scope and highlights salient features. Strong themes that emerged from the workshop were that biosignatures must be interpreted in the context of their environment, and that frameworks must be developed to link diverse forms of scientific understanding of that context to quantify the likelihood that a biosignature has been observed. Models are needed to explore the parameter space where measurements will be widespread but sparse in detail. Given the technological prospects for large ground-based telescopes and space-based observatories, the detection of atmospheric signatures of a few potentially habitable planets may come before 2030. Key Words: Exoplanets-Biosignatures-Remote observation-Spectral imaging-Bayesian analysis. Astrobiology 18, 619-626.

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

This study analyzes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model output to examine the covariability of interannual Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) edge latitude shifts and shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE). In control climate runs, during years when the HC edge is anomalously poleward, most models substantially reduce the shortwave radiation reflected by clouds in the lower midlatitude region (LML; ~28°S-~48°S), although no such reduction is seen in observations. These biases in HC-SWCRE covariability are linked to biases in the climatological HC extent. Notably, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents have weaker climatological LML subsidence and exhibit larger increases in LML subsidence with poleward HC edge expansion. This behavior, based on control climate interannual variability, has important implications for the CO 2 -forced model response. In 4×CO 2 -forced runs, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents produce stronger SW cloud radiative warming in the LML region and tend to have larger climate sensitivity values than models with more realistic climatological HC extents.

Using NASA-Aqua MODIS and AIRS data, the relationship between low-level cloud cover (cloud top below the 700 hPa level) and boundary layer stability is explored in post-cold frontal conditions. A linear relationship is found between seasonal cloud cover and two separate measures of inversion strength, the lower tropospheric stability (LTS) and the estimated inversion strength (EIS), for two specific regions in the north Atlantic and Pacific in quiescent and weakly subsiding conditions. The relationship barely changes when considering dynamically active and subsiding post-cold frontal conditions for the same regions. To explore the generality of this result and increase sample size, cold front centered composites of cloud cover and stability are constructed. The northern and southern hemisphere seasonal cloud cover and stability distributions in the post-cold frontal regions are then compared. A fairly good correlation between cloud cover and EIS is found in both hemispheres across all seasons, suggesting that a linear relationship between cloud cover and inversion strength proposed for quiescent conditions exists also in more dynamically active subsiding post-cold frontal conditions. However, for a given season and hemisphere, the correlation between cloud cover and EIS degrades in post-cold frontal regions, especially in the northern hemisphere. At these scales, other large scale factors tend to correlate better with cloud cover.