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This study is intended for decision-makers in the field of water resources use (irrigation and hydropower) and for emergency prevention authorities. Another problem remains intensive technogenic pollution of the environment, including water bodies, and one of the main tasks in the conditions of technogenesis is the development of predictive models for the migration of polluting chemical elements and substances in the environment. To calculate the runoff of the river the HBV3-ETH9 hydrological model and the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections were used, according to which the air temperature is expected to increase by 2.3 and 4.3 °C, respectively, in annual precipitation - by 10% of the norm. In the period 2023-2080, a gradual increase in annual runoff is expected by 9-23%, and according to the extreme scenario, by 9-36% of the norm, which is associated with intensive glacier water loss, seasonal snowmelt and rainfall. In the future, the passage of two flood peaks (in June and July) is possible. The increase in water content in April and May will contribute to increased mudflow and flood activity.

The research was carried out as part of the preparation "Water Resources" section of the 4th National Communication of the Kyrgyz Republic to the UNFCCC. The article presents extensive information on the current state and changes over a long period of observations of water resources, climate and glaciation in Kyrgyzstan (Syr-Darya and Amu-Darya river basins). The representative rivers were selected as the main objects, which are transboundary between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. The study aims to assess the inter-annual and intra-annual dynamics of the flow of the rivers for the period from 2020 to 2080, based on the climate projections CMIP5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and CMIP6 (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) (IPCC WG II Report, 2022). The hydrological modeling method in the HBV light and HBV EHT models and the inertial mean annual flow change method were used to estimate changes in water resources. On the rivers of the northern part of the Fergana Valley, the average annual runoff is expected to increase by 1-19%, in the Amudarya river basin (Kyzyl-Suu river) - by 27-64% of the values for 2006-2019. In the Naryn river, water discharge for this period will remain within the current values for 2006-2019. The method of inertial change in the average annual runoff showed an increase in runoff for 2030 and 2040 for all the studied catchment areas by 6-19% of the current values for 2006-2020T. he results of the study are intended for decision-makers on the rational use and long-term planning of water resources under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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