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Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Key Points: Question: To what extent has the provision of medications for self-managed abortion outside the formal US health care setting increased in the 6 months following the Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization decision? Findings: In this cross-sectional US-wide study, the total number of provisions of medications for self-managed abortion increased by an estimated 27 838 in the 6 months after Dobbs (July-December 2022) vs what would have been expected based on pre-Dobbs levels. Meaning: Provision of medications for self-managed abortion in the US increased in the 6 months after Dobbs. A substantial number of people accessed abortion medications despite implementation of state-level bans and restrictions. Clinicians should be prepared to meet the needs of patients who may be considering self-managed medication abortion or who need or want to connect with the formal health care setting for postabortion care. Importance: The Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization overturned the right to choose abortion in the US, with at least 16 states subsequently implementing abortion bans or 6-week gestational limits. Prior research indicates that in the 6 months following Dobbs, approximately 32 360 fewer abortions were provided within the US formal health care setting. However, trends in the provision of medications for self-managed abortion outside the formal health care setting have not been studied. Objective: To determine whether the provision of medications for self-managed abortion outside the formal health care setting increased in the 6 months after Dobbs. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional study using data from sources that provided abortion medications outside the formal health care setting to people in the US between March 1 and December 31, 2022, including online telemedicine organizations, community networks, and online vendors. Using a hierarchical bayesian model, we imputed missing values from sources not providing data. We estimated the change in provision of medications for self-managed abortion after the Dobbs decision. We then estimated actual use of these medications by accounting for the possibility that not all provided medications are used by recipients. Exposure: Abortion restrictions following the Dobbs decision. Main Outcomes and Measures: Provision and use of medications for a self-managed abortion. Results: In the 6-month post-Dobbs period (July 1 to December 31, 2022), the total number of provisions of medications for self-managed abortion increased by 27 838 (95% credible interval [CrI], 26 374-29 175) vs what would have been expected based on pre-Dobbs levels. Excluding imputed data changes the results only slightly (27 145; 95% CrI, 25 747-28 246). Accounting for nonuse of medications, actual self-managed medication abortions increased by an estimated 26 055 (95% CrI, 24 739-27 245) vs what would have been expected had the Dobbs decision not occurred. Conclusions and Relevance: Provision of medications for self-managed abortions increased in the 6 months following the Dobbs decision. Results suggest that a substantial number of abortion seekers accessed services despite the implementation of state-level bans and restrictions. This study assesses whether the provision of medications for self-managed abortion outside the formal US health care setting increased during the 6 months after the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization overturned the right to choose abortion in the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The 22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome (22q11.2DS) is the most common microdeletion in humans with over 180 phenotypic expressions. Approximately 30–40% of affected individuals will develop psychosis and 25% meet the criteria for schizophrenia. Despite this, pharmacotherapy for managing psychosis in 22q11.2DS is poorly understood and 22q11.2DS psychosis is frequently labelled as treatment resistant. The objectives of this paper are to evaluate the effectiveness and tolerability of pharmacotherapy for 22q11.2DS psychosis and evaluate the evidence for treatment resistance. Method: A systematic search was performed using CINAHL, The Cochrane Library (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Clinical Answers), EMBASE, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science Core Collection from inception to December 2022. It yielded 39 case reports, 6 case series and 1 retrospective study which met the inclusion criteria. Results: Based on the current literature, individuals with 22q11.2DS psychosis experience a greater rate of medical co-morbidities such as cardiac arrhythmias, seizures and movement disorders, which complicate pharmacotherapy. Poor tolerability rather than poor clinical response motivates the switching of antipsychotics, which may explain the labelling of treatment resistance in the literature. Conclusion: There are insufficient data to recommend a single antipsychotic for 22q11.2DS psychosis. Nonetheless, with proactive management of co-morbidities, antipsychotic medication in 22q11.2DS psychosis is an effective treatment commonly resulting in improvement in quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a relative paucity of evidence examining the effectiveness of early intervention for young children with Autism Spectrum Disorder, in particular those delivered through educationally-based programmes. This study aimed to evaluate the real world effectiveness of a community-based autism-specific early learning and intervention programme in Australia. Children enrolled between February 2010 and May 2013 who had a diagnosis of an Autism Spectrum Disorder was eligible to participate in the study. Fifty-nine children with a mean age of 3.98 years participated. Cognitive ability, language, autistic symptoms, and motor skills were assessed at baseline and follow up (12 months or at programme exit) using standardised measures. Pre- and post-measures were compared using paired sample t-tests. Significant improvements were found in receptive and expressive language, autism symptoms, and overall adaptive behaviour. No significant change was found in motor skills. Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder attending the community-based programme had significant gains particularly in domains of cognition and language. Study limitations are discussed.

Objective: Suicide is a leading cause of death in children and adolescents worldwide and a major public health concern. While suicidal behaviours place a significant demand on mental health and emergency services, data regarding suicide‐related contacts with police and paramedics are an underutilised resource. The aim of the present study was to identify the demographic profile of young individuals (aged 5–17) and had a suicide‐related contact with police or paramedics in Queensland (Australia). Methods: The present study utilised a population‐wide linked dataset, including data from police and paramedics and health administrative data, between 1 February 2013 and 31 January 2018. Results: The identified cohort of 7929 children had a median age of 15 years and mainly comprised females (63.2%). Over the study period, 64 children died, most by suicide (76.6%). Less than a third of the cohort were responsible for almost two‐thirds of the total number of contacts with police or paramedics. Conclusion: Findings provide a comprehensive profile of children and adolescents in suicidal crisis and highlight the substantial number of interactions that occur with police and paramedics. Due to the way the linked dataset was constructed, it must be assumed that the number of young persons in suicidal crisis is higher. Findings highlight the value of considering pre‐hospital alternatives to presenting to emergency departments (EDs) for this cohort, to reduce impost on EDs and improve outcomes. Further examination of re‐presentations by young persons is warranted to inform prevention and intervention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intervention on adolescent bullying is reliant on valid and reliable measurement of victimization "and" perpetration experiences across different behavioural expressions. Aims: This study developed and validated a survey tool that integrates measurement of both traditional and cyber bullying to test a theoretically driven multi-dimensional model. Sample" Adolescents from 10 mainstream secondary schools completed a baseline and follow-up survey (N = 1,217; M[subscript age] = 14 years; 66.2% male). Methods: The Bullying and cyberbullying Scale for Adolescents (BCS-A) developed for this study comprised parallel victimization and perpetration subscales, each with 20 items. Additional measures of bullying (Olweus Global Bullying and the Forms of Bullying Scale [FBS]), as well as measures of internalizing and externalizing problems, school connectedness, social support, and personality, were used to further assess validity. Results: Factor structure was determined, and then, the suitability of items was assessed according to the following criteria: (1) factor interpretability, (2) item correlations, (3) model parsimony, and (4) measurement equivalence across victimization and perpetration experiences. The final models comprised four factors: physical, verbal, relational, and cyber. The final scale was revised to two 13-item subscales. The BCS-A demonstrated acceptable concurrent and convergent validity (internalizing and externalizing problems, school connectedness, social support, and personality), as well as predictive validity over 6 months. Conclusions: The BCS-A has sound psychometric properties. This tool establishes measurement equivalence across types of involvement and behavioural forms common among adolescents. An improved measurement method could add greater rigour to the evaluation of intervention programmes and also enable interventions to be tailored to subscale profiles.

Purpose: The current study aimed to compare traditional logistic regression models with machine learning algorithms to investigate the predictive ability of (a) communication performance at 3 years old on language outcomes at 10 years old and (b) broader developmental skills (motor, social, and adaptive) at 3 years old on language outcomes at 10 years old. Method: Participants (N = 1,322) were drawn from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study (Straker et al., 2017). A general developmental screener, the Infant Monitoring Questionnaire (Squires, Bricker, & Potter, 1990), was completed by caregivers at the 3-year follow-up. Language ability at 10 years old was assessed using the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals-Third Edition (Semel, Wiig, & Secord, 1995). Logistic regression models and interpretable machine learning algorithms were used to assess predictive abilities of early developmental milestones for later language outcomes. Results: Overall, the findings showed that prediction accuracies were comparable between logistic regression and machine learning models using communication-only performance as well as performance on communication and broader developmental domains to predict language performance at 10 years old. Decision trees are incorporated to visually present these findings but must be interpreted with caution because of the poor accuracy of the models overall. Conclusions: The current study provides preliminary evidence that machine learning algorithms provide equivalent predictive accuracy to traditional methods. Furthermore, the inclusion of broader developmental skills did not improve predictive capability. Assessment of language at more than 1 time point is necessary to ensure children whose language delays emerge later are identified and supported.

Introduction: The 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10) is used to screen adolescents for mental disorders in Australian clinical practice; however, there are no Australian adolescent normative data. Methods: Data were drawn from a nationally representative sample (N = 2964) of Australian adolescents (11–17 years). This study had three aims: (1) to examine concurrent validity between the K10 and Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) emotional symptoms subscale, (2) to establish normative Australian adolescent K10 data and (3) to determine optimal K10 cut-off scores for screening for major depressive disorder (MDD) via receiver operator characteristic curve analysis and stratum-specific likelihood ratios. Results: The K10 and SDQ emotional symptoms scales were moderately correlated (rs = 0.63, p < 0.001). Older female adolescents reported higher total K10 scores compared with younger female adolescents (15–17 years: M = 20.2, standard error [SE] = 0.3; 11–14 years: M = 16.8, SE = 0.3) and male adolescents (11–14 years: M = 16.6, SE = 0.2; 15–17 years: M = 16.0, SE = 0.2). K10 scores to optimally discriminate those with and without MDD varied by age and sex and had low specificities. Stratum-specific likelihood ratios indicated adolescents with a K10 score of ≥ 30 will have a 12.9 (95% confidence interval = [10.2, 16.2]) increased likelihood of MDD. Conclusion: The K10 has utility for assessing psychological distress in health care and epidemiological research in Australian adolescents. Adolescents with K10 scores in the 'very high' range are at increased risk of MDD. Further assessment of these young people is indicated to identify those with or at risk of developing MDD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency (G6PD) is the most common enzymopathy globally. Early studies suggested an association with severe psychotic illness; however, changes to laboratory testing and diagnostic classification renders the association unclear. This study aims to explore the interaction between G6PD deficiency and psychotic symptoms, in particular to identify specific patterns of presentation or impact on outcomes. Pubmed, Embase, and PsycInfo databases were searched from inception to May 2023. Descriptive statistics and narrative review of were used to synthesise data on demographics, mental and physical health diagnoses, investigations, treatment, and outcomes. No clear link was found in published data (eight case reports, case series of n = 29) with a high rate (63%) of haemolytic crisis at the time of psychiatric presentation suggested delirium as an alternative diagnosis. Four case control studies found no significant difference in the prevalence of G6PD deficiency. However, catatonic presentation was reported in 40% of the case series and a higher prevalence of G6PD deficiency in catatonic schizophrenia was noted in case control studies. Based on the information available there was no clear association between G6PD deficiency and psychotic illness or treatment resistance, although paucity of studies and risk of bias limit strong conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]