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Why do some insurgent groups escalate violence to higher-intensity insurgencies or civil war? We explore this question among 140 insurgent groups worldwide across various thresholds of armed conflict. We argue that the main drivers of escalation are insurgent networks and domestic resource mobilization. Findings show that territorial control and engagement in criminal activities to finance operations are key factors associated with insurgent-inflicted battle deaths. The number of insurgent alliances, however, is the strongest determinant of higher-intensity armed conflicts. State counterinsurgency strategies also play an important role. Many of these insights support an exploratory look at rising insurgent violence in West Africa's Sahel region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantitatively assesses the impact of Israeli government actions on Palestinian militant attacks according to different categories: Islamists (Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad), nationalists (Fatah and Palestine Liberation Organization-affiliated groups), and unknown assailants from 1987–2004. Few large-n studies disaggregate among Palestinian factions. This study, however, identifies the scope of factional responses to counterinsurgency measures based on similar constituency pressures and divergent organizational objectives. For example, both indiscriminate repression targeting the wider population and discriminate concessions that reward suspected militants embolden armed actors to increase attacks across the Palestinian spectrum. But Islamists with maximalist goals significantly ramp up attacks to derail peace process-related events and disrupt concessions that benefit Palestinian society. Islamist factions fight to prevent the emergence of a two-state solution and avoid being sidelined by leading nationalist organizations, who have relatively limited objectives and are more likely to strategically reduce attacks to accommodate peace efforts. Additional findings point to other determinants of militant attacks, including religious and national holidays in multi-party armed conflicts. By analyzing diverse sets of armed actors among a broader national movement, this study contributes to research on counterinsurgency, rebel fragmentation, conflict management, and the strategic logics of terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This article explores Sinai Peninsula-based militant threats to Israeli national security and Israel’s efforts to address these threats. Though Israel primarily relies on coercive actions like targeted killings and airstrikes in other hostile fronts, Israel prioritizes defensive measures (i.e. barrier construction, missile defence systems) and intelligence cooperation with Egypt to counter a mutual enemy. Sinai attacks targeting Israel, which fluctuate based on organizational objectives and capabilities, aim to provoke Israeli retaliation and disrupt bilateral ties with Egypt – a cornerstone of regional interstate stability. However, Israel’s pragmatic counterterrorism measures have helped contain cross-border threats and strengthen Egypt-Israel relations to new heights. This case sheds light on how other strong states could face militant threats from territory of a neighboring partner while pursuing a delicate balance to preserve bilateral ties and ensure national security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]