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In this study, we analyzed the evolution of online public opinion on emergencies using a new Stochastic Petri Net modeling approach. First, an intuitive description of the emergency online public opinion development process was conceptualized from the life cycle evolution law perspective. Then, based on Petri net theory, a Stochastic Petri Net isomorphic Markov chain model was constructed to simulate the evolution of online public opinion on emergencies. Finally, four real-life cases were selected to validate and analyze the model, demonstrating that the evolutionary leaps, complexity, critical nodes, evolutionary rate, and execution time differ across different online public opinions on emergencies. The study results indicate that this modeling approach has certain advantages in examining the evolution based on multi-factor coupling and quantifying the evolution law in online public opinion on emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, RNA research has grown due to the discovery of its important role in biological systems. RNA molecules are involved in protein synthesis and play a critical role in gene expression. Many of these molecules are produced through the enzymatic digestion or spontaneous degradation of larger molecules, and are consequently essential for cellular processes. The mechanisms of RNA degradation appear to be one of the most important factors influencing RNA activity. In this study, a stochastic Petri net-based model of spontaneous (non-enzymatic) RNA degradation was built and analysed. The model was analysed using t-invariants, MCT sets, and simulation-based analyses. The systems approach enabled a thorough analysis of the phenomenon, resulting in significant biological insights.

Gas processing industry is associated with high risks which have the potential to cause catastrophic accidents. Safety Instrumented Systems (SISs) are considered the most effective safety barriers in this sector aiming to prevent undesired events and mitigate their consequences. However, several factors can affect their performance including maintenance strategy in place. In this paper, a Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) model is proposed for evaluating maintenance strategies related to SIS. The model is applied to analyze the performance of an Emergency Shutdown System (ESD) in a Flared Gases Recovery Unit located at south Algerian field. Furthermore, the paper investigates the financial impact of proof tests, including direct costs (such as manpower, equipment, and transportation) and indirect costs (such as production losses and gas flaring tax). These costs can be effectively managed and reduced by optimizing proof test intervals and scheduling tests during planned plant shutdowns. The results demonstrate that the proposed Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) model successfully analyzes the impact of imperfect full and partial proof tests on PFD average values of Safety Instrumented Functions (SIFs). In addition, it has been shown through reliability analysis that the proposed model is able to minimize spare parts expenses leading to significant cost savings while maintaining the required safety integrity levels (SILs), about 60% benefit achieved within two years compared to the actual procurement process over same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we analyzed the evolution of online public opinion on emergencies using a new Stochastic Petri Net modeling approach. First, an intuitive description of the emergency online public opinion development process was conceptualized from the life cycle evolution law perspective. Then, based on Petri net theory, a Stochastic Petri Net isomorphic Markov chain model was constructed to simulate the evolution of online public opinion on emergencies. Finally, four real-life cases were selected to validate and analyze the model, demonstrating that the evolutionary leaps, complexity, critical nodes, evolutionary rate, and execution time differ across different online public opinions on emergencies. The study results indicate that this modeling approach has certain advantages in examining the evolution based on multi-factor coupling and quantifying the evolution law in online public opinion on emergencies.

The safety of urban gas pipelines is challenged by a series of adverse factors, and the unexpected accidents may pose a catastrophic threat to humans, the environment and assets. The existing studies mainly focused on causation investigation of natural gas pipeline accident, the dynamic evolution process of urban natural gas pipeline accident is still challenging task for accident prevention. To find out the unfavorable factors that cause accidents, this study presents a dynamic risk modeling of urban natural gas pipeline accidents using Stochastic Petri net (SPN). An SPN model of an accident evolution process is constructed based on the discrete events in an accident flowchart, and the critical places and transitions are evaluated through this model. Considering the slow development of the early events leading to accidents, the delay time of the transitions at this stage cannot be determined, Bayesian theory is used to dynamically update SPN model. Critical accident nodes and their occurrence probabilities are estimated, which are used to support the efficient risk management strategies. The gas explosion accident in Shiyan, Hubei, as a representative case is investigated, and the results show that pipeline corrosion, ignition sources, inefficient information feedback and unreasonable solutions are critical accident causations. The probabilities of critical accident nodes increase over time, which means that these factors need to be managed efficiently to prevent the accidents. The application shows that the model can be used as a tool for gas companies and governments to investigate urban gas pipeline accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) of quay cranes (QCs) are essential for an effective port operation. This study estimates operational RAM of QCs using the Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) modelling. Asset Performance Assessment (APA) was performed to conduct the study by a SPN model. Based on the operation and maintenance data, probability distributions of Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) and Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) is determined by Goodness of Fit Test of Anderson Darling. Subsequently, these distributions are applied in APA to determine the frequencies of failure/breakdowns, duration of downtimes, availability, and reliability with the assistance of the SPN model and Monte Carlo Simulation. The availability of the analysed QC is 0.97 or 97%. The results of this work are verified by the comparison with historical data. The outcomes of this paper contribute to reliability, availability, maintainability, and risk management of QCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Introduction Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. In 2016, it was declared an epidemic in Brazil due to its high morbidity and mortality rates, mainly in cases of maternal syphilis (MS) and congenital syphilis (CS) with unfavorable outcomes. This paper aimed to mathematically describe the relationship between MS and CS cases reported in Brazil over the interval from 2010 to 2020, considering the likelihood of diagnosis and effective and timely maternal treatment during prenatal care, thus supporting the decision-making and coordination of syphilis response efforts. Methods The model used in this paper was based on stochastic Petri net (SPN) theory. Three different regressions, including linear, polynomial, and logistic regression, were used to obtain the weights of an SPN model. To validate the model, we ran 100 independent simulations for each probability of an untreated MS case leading to CS case (PUMLC) and performed a statistical t-test to reinforce the results reported herein. Results According to our analysis, the model for predicting congenital syphilis cases consistently achieved an average accuracy of 93% or more for all tested probabilities of an untreated MS case leading to CS case. Conclusions The SPN approach proved to be suitable for explaining the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) dataset using the range of 75–95% for the probability of an untreated MS case leading to a CS case (PUMLC). In addition, the model’s predictive power can help plan actions to fight against the disease.

Cloud computing provides an abstraction of the physical tiers, allowing a sense of infinite resources. However, the physical resources are not unlimited and need to be used more assertively. The challenge of cloud computing is to improve the use of resources without jeopardizing the availability of environments. Stochastic models can efficiently evaluate cloud computing systems, which is needed for proper capacity planning. This paper proposes an availability evaluation from a system hosted on a private cloud. To achieve this goal, we created hierarchical models to represent the studied environment. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most influential parameters and components that must be compatible with improving system availability. A case study supports the demonstration of the accuracy and utility of our methodology. We propose structural changes in the environment using different redundancies in the components to obtain satisfactory results. Finally, we analyze scenarios regarding DC's redundancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. In 2016, it was declared an epidemic in Brazil due to its high morbidity and mortality rates, mainly in cases of maternal syphilis (MS) and congenital syphilis (CS) with unfavorable outcomes. This paper aimed to mathematically describe the relationship between MS and CS cases reported in Brazil over the interval from 2010 to 2020, considering the likelihood of diagnosis and effective and timely maternal treatment during prenatal care, thus supporting the decision-making and coordination of syphilis response efforts. Methods: The model used in this paper was based on stochastic Petri net (SPN) theory. Three different regressions, including linear, polynomial, and logistic regression, were used to obtain the weights of an SPN model. To validate the model, we ran 100 independent simulations for each probability of an untreated MS case leading to CS case (PUMLC) and performed a statistical t-test to reinforce the results reported herein. Results: According to our analysis, the model for predicting congenital syphilis cases consistently achieved an average accuracy of 93% or more for all tested probabilities of an untreated MS case leading to CS case. Conclusions: The SPN approach proved to be suitable for explaining the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) dataset using the range of 75–95% for the probability of an untreated MS case leading to a CS case (PUMLC). In addition, the model's predictive power can help plan actions to fight against the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parallel algorithms are problematic to develop because of the negative influence of synchronisation, complicated behaviour of threads' capturing computing resources. Experimental results show performance time's strong dependence on algorithm parameters, such as the number of subtasks and the complexity of each task. The optimal value of subtask complexity is revealed for the particular algorithm. It is the same for different complexity of the parallelised task (with the same computing resource). To guarantee algorithm speed-up it is important to have a method for investigating the efficiency of parallel algorithm before its implementation on specified computing resources. Stochastic Petri net potentially could be a high accuracy tool for investigating the efficiency of a parallel algorithm. However, a huge number of elements are needed to compose a model of non-trivial algorithm that limits the application of this tool in practice. Petri-object simulation method allows replication of Petri nets with specified parameters and model creation of a list of linked Petri-objects. Basic templates for the model creation of a multithreaded algorithm are developed. Applying these templates, the model of the parallel discrete event simulation algorithm is developed and investigated. By the model results, the algorithm parameters providing the least performance time can be determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling of reliability of the complex systems (machines, large networks, human body) is an important area of recent research. There are two main approaches applied: i) fault trees, ii) Petri nets. For the probabilistic study of a system is vital to know its minimal cut/minimal path sets. Both for fault trees and Petri Nets it is an NP-hard problem. Liu and Chiou (1997) described the equivalence of both representations for a given system. Furthermore, they found a top-down matrix algorithm to find critical cuts and minimal paths of the Petri net of the system. They claim without proof that their algorithm is more efficient than the ones for fault trees. We present both representations of a system. The algorithm is illustrated on a simple example of a three-masted vessel and a more complex “three-motor” system by Vesely et al. (1981).

With the prevalence of Internet of Things (IoT), edge computing has emerged as a novel computing model for optimizing traditional cloud computing systems by moving part of the computational tasks to the edge of the network for better performance and security. With the technique of services computing, edge computing systems can accommodate the application requirements with more agility and flexibility. In large-scale edge computing systems, service composition as one of the most important problems in services computing suffers from several new challenges, i.e., complex layered architecture, failures and recoveries always in the lifecycle, and search space explosion. In this paper, we make an attempt at addressing these challenges by designing a simulation-based optimization approach for reliability-aware service composition. Composite stochastic Petri net models are proposed for formulating the dynamics of multi-layered edge computing systems, and their corresponding quantitative analysis is conducted. To solve the state explosion problem in large-scale systems or complex service processes, time scale decomposition technique is applied to improving the efficiency of model solving. Additionally, simulation schemes are designed for performance evaluation and optimization, and ordinal optimization technique is introduced to significantly reduce the size of the search space. Finally, we conduct experiments based on real-life data, and the empirical results validate the efficacy of the approach.

Efficient business process is important to the operations of supply chain finance (SCF). Many deficiencies exist in the processes of SCF such as complicated workflows and high time-consuming steps. However, few studies have paid attention to evaluate and improve the performance of SCF processes. We empirically model and investigate the processes of supply chain finance by constructing a Stochastic Petri Net based on the field survey of a focal firm. Two critical indices, place busy rate and transition utilization rate, are evaluated. The results demonstrate that some places (transitions) of the Petri Net have high busy rates (utilization rates). By integrating the Petri Net and dependency graph, several key places and transitions in the Petri Net of SCF processes are identified for further optimization. To improve the performance of SCF processes, we propose three optional adjusting schemes on the basis of information sharing perspective (for the first half of the Petri Net) and risk sharing perspective (for the second half of the Petri Net). The proposed optimization strategies have further been proven to reduce the place busy rates, shorten the process, and improve the process efficiency of the supply chain finance.

In this paper, we develop a methodology to capture and analyze the interplay of attack-defense strategies for intrusion detection in an autonomous distributed Internet of Things (IoT) system. In our formulation, every node must participate in lightweight intrusion detection of a neighbor target node. Consequently, every good node would play a set of defense strategies to faithfully defend the system while every bad node would play a set of attack strategies for achieving their own goals. We develop an analytical model based on Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) modeling techniques. Our methodology allows the optimal defense strategies to be played by good nodes to maximize the system lifetime when given a set of parameter values characterizing the distributed IoT system operational environment. We conduct a detailed performance evaluation based on an experiment dataset deriving from a reference autonomous distributed IoT system comprising 128 sensor-carrying mobile nodes and show how IDS defense mechanisms can counter malicious attack mechanisms under the ADIoTS system while considering multiple failure conditions.

Low latency and high availability of resources are essential characteristics to guarantee the quality of services in health systems. Hospital systems must be efficient to prevent loss of human life. Smart hospitals promise a health revolution by capturing and transmitting patient data to doctors in real-time via a wireless sensor network. However, there is a significant difficulty in assessing the performance and availability of such systems in real contexts due to failures not being tolerated and high implementation costs. This paper adopts analytical models to assess the performance and availability of intelligent hospital systems without having to invest in real equipment beforehand. Two Stochastic Petri Net models were proposed to represent intelligent hospital architectures. One model is used to assess performance, and another to assess availability. The models are pretty parametric, making it possible to calibrate the resources, service times, times between failures, and times between repairs. The availability model, for example, allows you to define 48 parameters, allowing you to evaluate a large number of scenarios. The analysis showed that the arrival rate in the performance model is an impacting parameter. It was possible to observe the close relationship between MRT, resource utilization, and discard rate in different scenarios, especially for high arrival rates. Three scenarios were explored considering the second model. The highest availability results were observed in scenario A, composed of server redundancy (local and remote). Such scenario—with redundancy—presented an availability of 99.9199%, that is, 7.01 h/year of inactivity. In addition, this work presents a sensitivity analysis that identifies the most critical components of the architecture. Therefore, this work can help hospital system administrators plan more optimized architectures according to their needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyber–physical system (CPS) is a complex system that contains multiple components working cooperatively. According to its characteristics, we propose an object-oriented generalized stochastic Petri net (OGSPN), in which the CPS is abstracted into several types of objects and its logical structure and working process is visually described. Moreover, we model and measure the time consumed by each activity in CPS for quantitative analysis. To simplify the process of performance analysis on this model, in this article we propose a compression algorithm to convert OGSPN into a generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN). Considering the uncertainty in CPS, we use a fuzzy mathematics based method to process the compressed model of GSPN for improving the accuracy of the performance analysis. We apply our method to a real-world thick metal plate production line in a manufacturing company, and the availability of our method is verified by extensive experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a common geological disaster in the Loess Plateau, loess collapse has a huge impact on local industry, agriculture, transportation and water conservancy projects. Loess collapse is due to instability caused by the influence of weather, topography, soil type, human engineering activities and other factors that cause environmental destruction. To reveal the relationship between the collapse of loess and its influencing factors, a calculation model for the probability of loess collapse was proposed in this study. In this study, the causes of loess collapse were analyzed by establishing a multivariate aggregate structure. Stochastic Petri net and its isomorphic Markov chain were applied to examine the collapse process and the accuracy of the model was verified through experiments. Results demonstrate that road network density and soil stability have large utilization rate and great influence on the entire system. The daily temperature difference and daily rainfall below 10 °C and 30 mm strongly influence the probability of collapse warning. The change of road network density affects the probability of early warning, but the effect decreases with the increase of density. By examining the early warning mechanism of loess collapse, this study provides a reference value for the prevention and control of other types of loess collapse disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rail system in the Recife region can transport approximately 400,000 passengers daily. Failure drastically decreases its carrying capacity. An example of a failure that occurs frequently is the so-called false occupancy failure. False occupancy failures occur when the train detection mechanism for part of the route is defective, forcing the driver to take manual control, increasing the risk of accidents. One of the solutions is to increase the capillarity of the railway system by adding alternative routes. In this context, this work proposes a set of models for evaluating the performability of railway systems. A case study using the Recife railway system was used to show the applicability of the proposed models, where it was possible to increase the system availability by practically 50% with the addition of alternative routes, also improving the performance metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model development and simulation of biological networks is recognized as a key task in Systems Biology. Integrated with in vitro and in vivo experimental data, network simulation allows for the discovery of the dynamics that regulate biological systems. Stochastic Petri Nets (SPNs) have become a widespread and reference formalism to model metabolic networks thanks to their natural expressiveness to represent metabolites, reactions, molecule interactions, and simulation randomness due to system fluctuations and environmental noise. In the literature, starting from the network model and the complete set of system parameters, there exist frameworks that allow for dynamic system simulation. Nevertheless, they do not allow for automatic model parameterization, which is a crucial task to identify, in silico, the network configurations that lead the model to satisfy specific temporal properties. To cover such a gap, this work first presents a framework to implement SPN models into SystemC code. Then, it shows how the framework allows for automatic parameterization of the networks. The user formally defines the network properties to be observed and the framework automatically extrapolates, through Assertion-based Verification (ABV), the parameter configurations that satisfy such properties. We present the results obtained by applying the proposed framework to model the complex metabolic network of the purine metabolism. We show how the automatic extrapolation of the system parameters allowed us to simulate the model under different conditions, which led to the understanding of behavioral differences in the regulation of the entire purine network. We also show the scalability of the approach through the modeling and simulation of four biological networks, each one with different structural characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The post-disaster emergency medical rescue (EMR) is critical for people's lives. This paper presents a stochastic Petri net (SPN) model based on the process of the rescue structure and a Markov chain model (MC), which is applied to the optimization of the EMR process, with the aim of identifying the key activities of EMR. An isomorphic MC model is developed for measuring and evaluating the time performance of the EMR process during earthquakes with the data of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This paper provides a mathematical approach to simulate the process and to evaluate the efficiency of EMR. Simultaneously, the expressions of the steady state probabilities of this system under various states are obtained based on the MC, and the variations of the probabilities are analyzed by changing the firing rates for every transition. Based on the concrete data of the event, the authors find the most time consuming and critical activities for EMR decisions. The model results show that the key activities can improve the efficiency of medical rescue, providing decision-makers with rescue strategies during the large scale earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mobile Edge Computing (MEC) has emerged as a promising network computing paradigm associated with mobile devices at local areas to diminish network latency under the employment and utilization of cloud/edge computing resources. In that context, MEC solutions are required to dynamically allocate mobile requests as close as possible to their computing resources. Moreover, the computing power and resource capacity of MEC server machines can directly impact the performance and operational availability of mobile apps and services. The systems practitioners must understand the trade off between performance and availability in systems design stages. The analytical models are suited to such an objective. Therefore, this paper proposes Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) models to evaluate both performance and availability of MEC environments. Different to previous work, our proposal includes unique metrics such as discard probability and a sensitivity analysis that guides the evaluation decisions. The models are highly flexible by considering fourteen transitions at the base model and twenty-five transitions at the extended model. The performance model was validated with a real experiment, the result of which indicated equality between experiment and model with p-value equal to 0.684 by t-Test. Regarding availability, the results of the extended model, different from the base model, always remain above 99%, since it presents redundancy in the components that were impacting availability in the base model. A numerical analysis is performed in a comprehensive manner, and the output results of this study can serve as a practical guide in designing MEC computing system architectures by making it possible to evaluate the trade-off between Mean Response Time (MRT) and resource utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grasping the future change trend of soil fertility has great significance in improving the soil quality and achieving high-quality crop production and sustainable agricultural development. However, studies predicting the future change trend of farmland soil fertility are scarce. In this paper, with Yanzhou District of Shandong Province as the research area, a study was conducted based on the sampled data from 2012 to 2017. The data extracted from 2012 to 2016 was used for prediction and that from 2017 was applied for verification. The pH, organic matter, available phosphorus, alkali-hydrolyzed nitrogen and available potassium were selected as indexes of soil fertility. From a socioeconomic perspective, the factors affecting the changes in soil fertility selected in this study include fertilization measures, crop yield, area of arable land, farmers' income, degree of mechanized operation, irrigated area, pesticide dosage, mulch dosage and rural electricity consumption. Based on this, a stochastic Petri net was used to build a model for predicting the soil fertility change trend. According to the relevant statistical data, the parameters of the model were determined, and by using the solid mathematical basis of the model, the probability of about 0.7852 was calculated out for the soil fertility to decline in the study area in the coming year. By comparing the soil fertility in 2016 and 2017, and further analyzing the changes in soil fertility from 2012 to 2016, the method of predicting the variation trend of soil fertility proposed in this study was verified to be effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud computing is attractive to business owners and allows enterprises to start from the small and increase resources only when there is a rise in service demand, but cloud may become expensive. Fog computing has many advantages, and it is suited for the applications whereby real time is very important, but fog resources may also be highly limited. The cloud and fog computing may perform tasks together to attend different types of applications and mitigate their limitations. However, taking into account variables such as latency, workload and computational capacity, it becomes complex to define under what circumstances it is more advantageous to use the cloud layer or the fog. This paper proposes a stochastic Petri net to model such a scenario by considering cloud and fog. The model permits to configure 12 parameters including, for example, the number of available resources, workload and mean requests arrival time. We present a case study using a classical big data algorithm to validate the model. The case study is a practical guide to infrastructure administrators to adjust their architectures by finding the trade-off between cost and performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last years, the demand and use of data center have increased greatly due to the services offered by them. There must be a concern with data centers to allow the infrastructure to be available most of the time. Considering this need, this work has the objective of conducting a sensitivity analysis in the electrical infrastructure of the data center, thus finding the most sensitive equipment, taking into account the availability, reliability and cost. After obtaining the most sensitive equipment, it applies warm standby and hot standby replication techniques. The present work makes use of a hybrid modeling approach that considers the advantages of Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN) and Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD) to evaluate the dependability and cost of equipment acquisition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud computing has been widely adopted over the years by practitioners and companies with a variety of requirements. With a strong economic appeal, cloud computing makes possible the idea of computing as a utility, in which computing resources can be consumed and paid for with the same convenience as electricity. One of the main characteristics of cloud as a service is elasticity supported by auto-scaling capabilities. The auto-scaling cloud mechanism allows adjusting resources to meet multiple demands dynamically. The elasticity service is best represented in critical web trading and transaction systems that must satisfy a certain service level agreement (SLA), such as maximum response time limits for different types of inbound requests. Nevertheless, existing cloud infrastructures maintained by different cloud enterprises often offer different cloud service costs for equivalent SLAs upon several factors. The factors might be contract types, VM types, auto-scaling configuration parameters, and incoming workload demand. Identifying a combination of parameters that results in SLA compliance directly in the system is often sophisticated, while the manual analysis is prone to errors due to the huge number of possibilities. This paper proposes the modeling of auto-scaling mechanisms in a typical cloud infrastructure using a stochastic Petri net (SPN) and the employment of a well-established adaptive search metaheuristic (GRASP) to discover critical trade-offs between performance and cost in cloud services.The proposed SPN models enable cloud designers to estimate the metrics of cloud services in accordance with each required SLA such as the best configuration, cost, system response time, and throughput.The auto-scaling SPN model was extensively validated with 95% confidence against a real test-bed scenario with 18.000 samples. A case-study of cloud services was used to investigate the viability of this method and to evaluate the adoptability of the proposed auto-scaling model in practice. On the other hand, the proposed optimization algorithm enables the identification of economic system configuration and parameterization to satisfy required SLA and budget constraints. The adoption of the metaheuristic GRASP approach and the modeling of auto-scaling mechanisms in this work can help search for the optimized-quality solution and operational management for cloud services in practice.

The spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic across countries all over the world urges governments to revolutionize the traditional medical hospitals/centers to provide sustainable and trustworthy medical services to patients under the pressure of the huge overload on the computing systems of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for medical monitoring as well as treatment services of medical professionals. Uncertain malfunctions in any part of the medical computing infrastructure, from its power system in a remote area to the local computing systems at a smart hospital, can cause critical failures in medical monitoring services, which could lead to a fatal loss of human life in the worst case. Therefore, early design in the medical computing infrastructure’s power and computing systems needs to carefully consider the dependability characteristics, including the reliability and availability of the WSNs in smart hospitals under an uncertain outage of any part of the energy resources or failures of computing servers, especially due to software aging. In that regard, we propose reliability and availability models adopting stochastic Petri net (SPN) to quantify the impact of energy resources and server rejuvenation on the dependability of medical sensor networks. Three different availability models (A, B, and C) are developed in accordance with various operational configurations of a smart hospital’s computing infrastructure to assimilate the impact of energy resource redundancy and server rejuvenation techniques for high availability. Moreover, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the components that impose the greatest impact on the system availability. The analysis results indicate different impacts of the considered configurations on the WSN’s operational availability in smart hospitals, particularly 99.40%, 99.53%, and 99.64% for the configurations A, B, and C, respectively. This result highlights the difference of 21 h of downtime per year when comparing the worst with the best case. This study can help leverage the early design of smart hospitals considering its wireless medical sensor networks’ dependability in quality of service to cope with overloading medical services in world-wide virus pandemics.

Modeling of reliability of the complex systems (machines, large networks, human body) is an important area of recent research. There are two main approaches applied: i) fault trees, ii) Petri nets. For the probabilistic study of a system is vital to know its minimal cut/minimal path sets. Both for fault trees and Petri Nets it is an NP-hard problem. Liu and Chiou (1997) described the equivalence of both representations for a given system. Furthermore, they found a top-down matrix algorithm to find critical cuts and minimal paths of the Petri net of the system. They claim without proof that their algorithm is more efficient than the ones for fault trees. We present both representations of a system. The algorithm is illustrated on a simple example of a three-masted vessel and a more complex “three-motor” system by Vesely et al. (1981). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of cloud computing, such as large-scale, dynamics, heterogeneity and diversity, present a range of challenges for the study on modeling and performance evaluation on cloud data centers. Performance evaluation not only finds out an appropriate trade-off between cost-benefit and quality of service (QoS) based on service level agreement (SLA), but also investigates the in uence of virtualization technology. In this paper, we propose an Energy-Aware Optimization (EAO) algorithm with considering energy consumption, resource diversity and virtual machine migration. In addition, we construct a stochastic model for Energy- Aware Migration-Enabled Cloud (EAMEC) data centers by introducing Dynamic Scalable Stochastic Petri Net (DSSPN). Several performance parameters are defined to evaluate task backlogs, throughput, reject rate, utilization, and energy consumption under different runtime and machines. Finally, we use a tool called SPNP to simulate analytical solutions of these parameters. The analysis results show that DSSPN is applicable to model and evaluate complex cloud systems, and can help to optimize the performance of EAMEC data centers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Conducting in-depth analysis of operating mechanism of emergency coordination of COVID-19 prevention and control. • Establishing the pandemic prevention and control emergency coordination model through a stochastic Petri net. • Taking the COVID-19 outbreak in Xi'an as an example to propose key links and the appropriate disposal time. The prevention and control of COVID-19 requires coordination amongst various departments, including health care and disease control institutions, transportation departments, hospitals, public security emergency response departments, and community management departments. The efficiency of emergency coordination directly affects the effectiveness of pandemic prevention and control, and effective emergency coordination is the key to avoiding the worsening and spread of COVID-19. However, due to the uncertainty of rescue time prediction, the performance analysis of and research on the emergency collaborative process for COVID-19 are not sufficient. Considering the interrelationship of different stages of emergency coordination, this study establishes a stochastic Petri net model. Then, it sets up an isomorphic Markov chain based on the SPN model, and obtains the linear equation of the probability of stability. Finally, taking the COVID-19 outbreak in Xi'an as an example, this study conducts a static simulation analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control emergency collaborative action. By calculating the transition utilization rate and the busy probability of each place, the key positions and transition positions in the process of emergency coordination are identified, and the key stages and action lists of COVID-19 prevention and control emergency coordination are generated. On this basis, this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for the targeted prevention and control of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mobile Edge Computing (MEC) has emerged as a promising network computing paradigm associated with mobile devices at local areas to diminish network latency under the employment and utilization of cloud/edge computing resources. In that context, MEC solutions are required to dynamically allocate mobile requests as close as possible to their computing resources. Moreover, the computing power and resource capacity of MEC server machines can directly impact the performance and operational availability of mobile apps and services. The systems practitioners must understand the trade off between performance and availability in systems design stages. The analytical models are suited to such an objective. Therefore, this paper proposes Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) models to evaluate both performance and availability of MEC environments. Different to previous work, our proposal includes unique metrics such as discard probability and a sensitivity analysis that guides the evaluation decisions. The models are highly flexible by considering fourteen transitions at the base model and twenty-five transitions at the extended model. The performance model was validated with a real experiment, the result of which indicated equality between experiment and model with p-value equal to 0.684 by t-Test. Regarding availability, the results of the extended model, different from the base model, always remain above 99%, since it presents redundancy in the components that were impacting availability in the base model. A numerical analysis is performed in a comprehensive manner, and the output results of this study can serve as a practical guide in designing MEC computing system architectures by making it possible to evaluate the trade-off between Mean Response Time (MRT) and resource utilization.

Cloud computing is a paradigm that offers computing resources dynamically over the Internet. Universities and schools are increasingly adopting Virtual Learning Environments (VLE) to facilitate student-teacher communication, so there is a need for VLE benchmarking on cloud computing software. This paper performs the performance evaluation of the private cloud VLE. A methodology was proposed to perform the measurements and modeling of the system. The model was developed in stochastic petri net. This paper presents three case studies performed to illustrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and models in a real, lab-mounted environment with Moodle configured in a private cloud with Apache CloudStack. The results show that the performance model was practical and efficient to quantify the metrics of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Software performance engineering is a mature field that offers methods to assess system performance. Process mining is a promising research field applied to gain insight on system processes. The interplay of these two fields opens promising applications in the industry. In this work, we report our experience applying a methodology, based on process mining techniques, for the performance assessment of a commercial data-intensive software application. The methodology has successfully assessed the scalability of future versions of this system. Moreover, it has identified bottlenecks components and replication needs for fulfilling business rules. The system, an integrated port operations management system, has been developed by PRODEVELOP, a medium-sized software enterprise with high expertise in geospatial technologies. The performance assessment has been carried out by a team composed by practitioners and researchers. Finally, the paper offers a deep discussion on the lessons learned during the experience, that will be useful for practitioners to adopt the methodology and for researcher to find new routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the defect that the security attribute of RSCN couldn't be described with measurement,a survivabil-ity model for RSCN was proposed based on the stochastic Petri net.Firstly,a non-Markovian stochastic Petri net for RSCN was proposed,and then the state schematics was educed based on the FCFS fault repair policy subsequently.Fina-ly,the survivability model was concluded based on the probability equation of system state by importing supplementary variable.The model was analyzed and validated for validity through emu ational experiments.The emulational results show that the comparability between the computed-results of model and emulational results is good,and the model can be used to discribe the survivability for RSCN.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common neuro-degenerative disorder in the elderly that leads to dementia. The hallmark of AD is senile lesions made by abnormal aggregation of amyloid beta in extracellular space of brain. One of the challenges in AD treatment is to better understand the mechanism of action of key proteins and their related pathways involved in neuronal cell death in order to identify adequate therapeutic targets. This study focuses on the phenomenon of aggregation of amyloid beta into plaques by considering the signal transduction pathways of Calpain-Calpastatin (CAST) regulation system and Amyloid Precursor Protein (APP) processing pathways along with Ca2+ channels. These pathways are modeled and analyzed individually as well as collectively through Stochastic Petri Nets for comprehensive analysis and thorough understating of AD. The model predicts that the deregulation of Calpain activity, disruption of Calcium homeostasis, inhibition of CAST and elevation of abnormal APP processing are key cytotoxic events resulting in an early AD onset and progression. Interestingly, the model also reveals that plaques accumulation start early (at the age of 40) in life but symptoms appear late. These results suggest that the process of neuro-degeneration can be slowed down or paused by slowing down the degradation rate of Calpain-CAST Complex. In the light of this study, the suggestive therapeutic strategy might be the prevention of the degradation of Calpain-CAST complexes and the inhibition of Calpain for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases such as AD.

To evaluate and predict component-based software security, a two-dimensional model of software security is proposed by Stochastic Petri Net in this paper. In this approach, the software security is modeled by graphical presentation ability of Petri nets, and the quantitative prediction is provided by the evaluation capability of Stochastic Petri Net and the computing power of Markov chain. Each vulnerable component is modeled by Stochastic Petri net and two parameters, Successfully Attack Probability (SAP) and Vulnerability Volume of each component to another component. The second parameter, as a second dimension of security evaluation, is a metric that is added to modeling to improve the accuracy of the result of system security prediction. An isomorphic Markov chain is obtained from a corresponding SPN model. The security prediction is calculated based on the probability distribution of the MC in the steady state. To identify and trace back to the critical points of system security, a sensitive analysis method is applied by derivation of the security prediction equation. It provides the possibility to investigate and compare different solutions with the target system in the designing phase.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common neuro-degenerative disorder in the elderly that leads to dementia. The hallmark of AD is senile lesions made by abnormal aggregation of amyloid beta in extracellular space of brain. One of the challenges in AD treatment is to better understand the mechanism of action of key proteins and their related pathways involved in neuronal cell death in order to identify adequate therapeutic targets. This study focuses on the phenomenon of aggregation of amyloid beta into plaques by considering the signal transduction pathways of Calpain-Calpastatin (CAST) regulation system and Amyloid Precursor Protein (APP) processing pathways along with Ca2+ channels. These pathways are modeled and analyzed individually as well as collectively through Stochastic Petri Nets for comprehensive analysis and thorough understating of AD. Themodel predicts that the deregulation of Calpain activity, disruption of Calcium homeostasis, inhibition of CAST and elevation of abnormal APP processing are key cytotoxic events resulting in an early AD onset and progression. Interestingly, the model also reveals that plaques accumulation start early (at the age of 40) in life but symptoms appear late. These results suggest that the process of neuro-degeneration can be slowed down or paused by slowing down the degradation rate of Calpain-CAST Complex. In the light of this study, the suggestive therapeutic strategy might be the prevention of the degradation of Calpain-CAST complexes and the inhibition of Calpain for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases such as AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While operating in three different modes with bi-directional power flow, electricity theft detection, and localization in a grid-tied microgrid (MG) become challenging tasks, particularly when the occurrence rate of the theft and its frequency patterns are random. To address this problem, a stochastic Petri net formalism is used in this paper to detect and localize the occurrence of theft in grid-tied MGs. The disturbance at any instance of time in the form of resistance above a threshold in the accumulated data of a smart meter, irrespective of the mode of operation, triggers a transition assigned to the arc, which alerts the transmission module. The affected transition and suspected user information are forwarded to the meter data management system (MDMS) for localization of the theft. A smart meter forwards its readings to the MDMS only when a theft is detected; otherwise readings are sent outside an MG once or twice a day depending on utility regulations. This low sampling rate significantly improves the overall privacy of customers. For line resistance measurement in the MG, singular value decomposition is used. In experiments, it calculates the technical and non-technical losses with 100% accuracy without knowing the exact topology of the power distribution network. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We present an approach to improve the efficiency of stochastic simulation for large and dense biochemical reaction networks. We use stochastic Petri nets as modelling framework, but the proposed simulation approach is not limited to Petri net representations. The underlying continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is converted to an equivalent discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC); this itself gains no efficiency. We improve the efficiency via discrete-time leaps, even though this results in an approximate method. The discrete-time leaps are done by applying the maximum firing rule; this reduces drastically the number of steps. The presented algorithm is implemented in our modelling and simulation tool Snoopy, as well as in our advanced analysis and model checking tool MARCIE. We demonstrate the approach on models of different sizes and complexities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Using mathematical models for cancer treatment had excellent outcomes in recent years. Modeling of the tumor-immune interactions is possible by several mathematical models. Stochastic models such as Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) consider the random effects and uncertainty in the biological environments. Therefore, they are a good choice for simulation of biological systems, specially the complex dynamical network of tumor-immune interactions. Methods: In this paper we have modeled the interactions of the B16-F10 tumor cells, Cytotoxic T cells (CTL) and Myeloid Derived Suppressor cell (MDSC) by SPN. By systematic search on immunology resources, we identified the behaviors, characteristics, and effective interactions between these cells. We used SPN to construct the dynamics of these cells, therefore a dynamical network of tumor-immune interactions (DNTII) has been made. By considering these cells as places and all interactions as transitions of SPN, we can simulate this complex biological network. The model has control parameters that their regulation causes DNTII to mimic different behaviors of tumor-immune system. Results: The model can properly simulate dynamical complex network of tumor-immune interactions compared to biological reality. This model is capable to represent different behavior of tumor-immune system such as tumor escape from immune response, overcoming the immune system on the tumor cells and equilibrium of the tumor and immune system. Conclusion: By using this model, we can test different immunology hypothesis in a simulation environment without spending any time and cost.

Cloud computing has been established as a remarkable business model that allows the outsourcing of processing, memory, storage, and networking provided by cloud infrastructures. Cloud applications require computing resources being promptly available to serve the on-demand load. If resources are not available to meet user requests, service dependability and performance may be considerably impacted. Thus redundancy mechanisms are a suitable solution for rapidly providing resources to recover the failure in service delivery. However, one of the main difficulties in cloud infrastructures are related to the selection of redundancy mechanisms that can provide a high availability with acceptable costs. This paper provides a methodology, stochastic models and an optimization approach for assisting the planning of private cloud infrastructures, which are selected according to the availability, downtime and cost constraints. Two case studies based on cloud platform are adopted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers an efficient simulation algorithm for discrete event systems with a great number of elements. With the use of Petri-object simulation and parallel computing, the algorithm is developed that simultaneously reproduces operation of Petri objects in separate streams. The linear dependence of the runtime of the algorithm on model's complexity is confirmed by experimental results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homing of stem cells to the sites of injury is crucial for tissue regeneration. Stromal derived factor 1 (SDF-1) is among the most important chemokines recruiting these cells. Unexpectedly, our previous experimental data on mouse models of acute kidney injury showed that SDF-1 has a declining trend following ischemic kidney insult. To describe this unforeseen observation, a stochastic Petri net model of SDF-1 regulation in the hypoxia pathway was constructed based on main related components extracted from literature. Using this strategy, predictions regarding the underlying mechanisms of SDF-1 kinetics are generated and a novel incoherent feed forward loop regulating SDF-1 expression is proposed. The computational approach suggested here can be exploited to propose novel therapies for debilitating disorders such as kidney injury. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper, a new method is proposed to evaluate the performance of concurrent systems. A concurrent system consisting of multiple processes that communicate via message passing mechanisms is modeled by a Petri net, which is in turn represented by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of a restricted type. The equations describe the system state changes, and the solutions, also called state measures, can be used for the performance analysis such as estimating response time, throughput and efficiency. This method can avoid a state explosion problem encountered by the conventional methods based on Continuous-Time Markov Chains. Its application to an IBM business system is given as an example. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Safety is a key issue in railway operation. In this context, level crossings (LCs) are one of the most critical points in railway networks. In some countries, accidents at LC account for up to 50% of railway accidents. In this paper, we conduct a risk assessment comparative study involving two main types of Automatic Protection Systems (APSs), the first using a pair of half-barriers and the second with four half-barriers. So far, the choice of such LC protection systems has been exclusively done on the basis of qualitative expertise. The study we carry out here is based on some parameterizable behavioral models we have developed, which describe the global dynamics within the LC area. In contrast to existing studies on LC safety, our models take into account not only railway and road traffic but also the risk due to human factors while focusing on two major risky situations. The simulation results clearly show the potential risk with each of the investigated APSs, according to various features of the dynamics within the LC area. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work dealing with a quantitative comparison between different types of LCs. The developed models can be easily accommodated in order to describe existing infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Nowadays, society has increasingly relied on convergent networks as an essential means for individuals, businesses, and governments. Strategies, methods, models and techniques for preventing and handling hardware or software failures as well as avoiding performance degradation are, thus, fundamental for prevailing in business. Issues such as operational costs, revenues and the respective relationship to key performance and dependability metrics are central for defining the required system infrastructure. Our work aims to provide system performance and dependability models for supporting optimization of infrastructure design, aimed at business oriented metrics. In addition, a methodology is also adopted to support both the modeling and the evaluation process. The results showed that the proposed methodology can significantly reduce the complexity of infrastructure design as well as improve the relationship between business and infrastructure aspects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Multistate physics modeling (MSPM) of degradation processes is an approach proposed for estimating the failure probability of components and systems. This approach integrates multistate modeling, which describes the degradation process through transitions among discrete states (e.g., initial, microcrack, rupture, etc.), and physics modeling by (physics) equations that describe the degradation process within the states. In reality, the degradation process is non-Markovian, its transition rates are time-dependent, and the degradation is possibly influenced by uncertain external factors such as temperature and stress. Under these conditions, it is in general difficult to derive the state probabilities analytically. In this paper, we overcome this difficulty by building a simulation model supported by a stochastic Petri net representing the multistate degradation process. The proposed modeling approach is applied to the problem of a nuclear component undergoing stress corrosion cracking. The results are compared with those derived from the state-space enrichment Markov chain approximation method applied in a previous work of literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we address the emergency response decision-making process based on stochastic Petri net from an e-service perspective. The emergency response decision-making process is modeled and designed considering service management. The process is modeled based on stochastic Petri net and a solution methodology is proposed to solve the model. In addition, an isomorphic Markov Chain model and a service performance model are developed for measuring and evaluating the service performance of emergency response decision-making process. Finally, a case study is presented to show the viability of our method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concepts of general queue process, general maintenance serve process and relevant time were proposed, considering the out of capability and the shortage of spares. A Petri net formalization model was constructed to describe the queuing system. Based on Petri net model, the analytical formula and simulation method to analyze system performance were studied. By case study, the method to improve system performance was present and calculation precision simplified analytical formula was given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]