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Abstract: Despite considerable advances in our understanding of the pathophysiology of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), its prediction remains unresolved and depends mainly on clinical data. The aim of this study is to build a predictive model based on clinical variables and cytokine gene polymorphism for predicting acute GVHD (aGVHD) and chronic GVHD (cGVHD) from the analysis of a large cohort of HLA-identical sibling donor allogeneic stem cell transplant (allo-SCT) patients. A total of 25 SNPs in 12 cytokine genes were evaluated in 509 patients. Data were analyzed using a linear regression model and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The statistical model was constructed by randomly selecting 85% of cases (training set), and the predictive ability was confirmed based on the remaining 15% of cases (test set). Models including clinical and genetic variables (CG-M) predicted severe aGVHD significantly better than models including only clinical variables (C-M) or only genetic variables (G-M). For grades 3-4 aGVHD, the correct classification rates (CCR1) were: 100% for CG-M, 88% for G-M, and 50% for C-M. On the other hand, CG-M and G-M predicted extensive cGVHD better than C-M (CCR1: 80% vs. 66.7%, respectively). A risk score was calculated based on LASSO multivariate analyses. It was able to correctly stratify patients who developed grades 3-4 aGVHD (P < .001) and extensive cGVHD (P < .001). The novel predictive models proposed here improve the prediction of severe GVHD after allo-SCT. This approach could facilitate personalized risk-adapted clinical management of patients undergoing allo-SCT.

The FOXP3 gene encodes for a protein (Foxp3) involved in the development and functional activity of regulatory T cells (CD4+/CD25+/Foxp3+), which exert regulatory and suppressive roles over the immune system. After allogeneic stem cell transplantation, regulatory T cells are known to mitigate graft versus host disease while probably maintaining a graft versus leukemia effect. Short alleles (≤(GT)15) for the (GT)n polymorphism in the promoter/enhancer of FOXP3 are associated with a higher expression of FOXP3, and hypothetically with an increase of regulatory T cell activity. This polymorphism has been related to the development of auto- or alloimmune conditions including type 1 diabetes or graft rejection in renal transplant recipients. However, its impact in the allo-transplant setting has not been analyzed. In the present study, which includes 252 myeloablative HLA-identical allo-transplants, multivariate analysis revealed a lower incidence of grade III-IV acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) in patients transplanted from donors harboring short alleles (OR = 0.26, CI 0.08-0.82, p = 0.021); without affecting chronic GVHD or graft versus leukemia effect, since cumulative incidence of relapse, event free survival and overall survival rates are similar in both groups of patients.