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This paper describes several simple methods for estimating the main features of an ongoing solar cycle (SC); in particular, its maximum amplitude (RM), ascent duration (ASC), and period (PER). The current ongoing SC25 had its minimum amplitude (Rm) in December 2019, measuring 1.8. At elapsed time t = 24 months (December 2021), smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R measured 55.7. Comparisons of R with the mean values of Fast-rising-Slow-rising and Short-PER-Long-PER cycles strongly suggest that SC25 is best described as being a Slow-rising-Long-PER SC (i.e., Slow-Long), inferring an ASC [greater than or equal to] 49 months (i.e., RM occurrence on or after January 2024) and PER [greater than or equal to] 131 months (i.e., Rm occurrence for SC26 on or after November 2030). Furthermore, RM >116.4 is expected for SC25 based on the inferred Even-Odd preferential relationship (i.e., during the modern era of sunspot observations SC12-SC24, the Odd-following SC in consecutive Even-Odd cycle pairs has usually had the larger RM, true for 5 of 6 Even-Odd cycle pairs). Slow-Long cycles (i.e., SCs 12, 14, 20, 23, and 24) have an average RM = 132.0 [+ or -] 30.6, ASC = 57 [+ or -] 7 months and PER = 138 [+ or -] 6 months. Based on the overlap of the geomagnetic minimums (i.e., Aam and Apm) in the vicinity of Rm, one estimates RM = 145.7 [+ or -] 17.1 for SC25, a value in stark contrast to the panel prediction of RM = 115 peaking in July 2025 [+ or -] 8 months. The greatest rate of growth (GRG) in R observed thus far for SC25 is only 5.6 occurring at t = 22 months (October 2021); which, if it holds up, would be the smallest GRG during the modern era (SC12-SC24) and would suggest an RM = 107.6 [+ or -] 33.4 and a mean rate of growth (MRG) = 1.7 [+ or -] 0.9 for SC25. For comparison, the smallest GRG during SC12-SC24 is 6.5 occurring at t = 39 months associated with SC14, a Slow-Long SC, having RM = 107.1, ASC = 49 months, MRG = 2.09, and PER = 138 months; SC24 had RM = 116.4, ASC = 64 months, GRG = 8.2 at t = 28 months, MRG = 1.78, and PER = 132 months., INTRODUCTION Predicting the size and timing of a solar cycle (SC) is crucially important, especially as it relates to the scheduling of space missions. For example, the United States originally [...]

This is the second paper in an anticipated three-part study of the sunspot areal dataset. Examined are the annual variations of the northern (N) and southern (S) hemispheric sunspot area (SSA), number of active region entries (NARE), and the mean area per entry (MAE) for the interval 1875-2017, spanning solar cycles (SCs) SC12-SC24. For the overall interval of 1875-2019, SSA(N) has been larger than SSA(S) for 77 of the 145 years. Likewise, for SC12-SC24, SSA(N) has been greater than SSA(S) during the ascending phase of the solar cycle (i.e., 35 of 52 years), whether the SC is an even- or odd-numbered SC, while SSA(S) has been greater than SSA(N) during the descending phase of the solar cycle (51 of 93 years). Minimum SSA(N) and SSA(S) have occurred in the same year in only 7 of 13 SCs, including SC14, SC16 and SC19-SC23. Maximum SSA(N) and SSA(S) have occurred in the same year only once (in SCI5). Maximum SSA(S) usually occurs after maximum SSA(N), true for 9 of 13 SCs. Maximum SSA(S) preceded maximum SSA(N) in SC16, SC18, and SC19. Multiple peaks in SSA(N) or SSA(S), typically 2-3 years apart, have often been seen (e.g., SC12-SC16 and SC18-SC22). SC12 had the smallest maximum SSA(N) (452.0 millionths of a solar hemisphere), while SC19 had the largest maximum SSA(N) (2,277.2 millionths of a solar hemisphere). SCI4 had the smallest SSA(S) (600.3 millionths of a solar hemisphere), while SC18 had the largest SSA(S) (1,642.9 millionths of a solar hemisphere). The average time from minimum to maximum SSA(N) is 3.8 years (range 2-5 years), while it is 4.8 years for SSA(S) (range 3-6 years). The average time from maximum SSA(N) to the following minimum SSA(N) is 6.9 years (range 5-9 years), while it is 6.2 years for SSA(S) (range 5-8 years). The largest N-S asymmetry coefficients for SSA occurs between -3 and +1 years about sunspot minimum. The largest N-S asymmetry coefficient in SSA occurred in 2019 (SC24). The largest area sunspot occurred in 1947 (SC18) in the southern hemisphere and measured 6,132 millionths of a solar hemisphere, nearly twice the size of the average maxima of the largest area spots in the other 12 SCs. SSA and NARE are highly correlated with each other and with SSN. Minimum MAE(N) and MAE(S) may have occurred, respectively, in 2018 and 2019, highly suggestive that SSN(m) for SC25 either occurred in 2019 or will occur in 2020., INTRODUCTION This is the second paper in an anticipated three-part study of the sunspot areal dataset, 1875-2017. Paper I (Wilson 2020) provided a general overview of the sunspot areal dataset, [...]

Examined are annual values of sunspot number (SSN), corrected sunspot area (SSA), number of active region entries (NARE), largest-observed area active region (LAAR), mean area per entry (MAE), highest latitude spot (HLS), and inferred correlations between selected parameters based on the observed data for the years 1875-2017. A number of [+ or -]1 standard error of measurement prediction intervals are made regarding the size of the next sunspot cycle (SC) SC25. In particular, based on the even-odd cycle effect, SC25, the next solar cycle, should have maximum annual SSN = 170.4 [+ or -] 13.7, maximum annual SSA = 1,730.3 [+ or -] 180.0 millionths of a solar hemisphere, and maximum annual NARE = 3,775 [+ or -]510, assuming that it is not a statistical outlier. Also, based on the observed annual minimum value of HLS for 2017 (= 19[degrees]), one predicts minimum annual SSN = 7.0 [+ or -] 3.2, minimum annual SSA = 41.5 [+ or -] 31.7 millionths of a solar hemisphere, minimum annual NARE = 155 [+ or -] 76, maximum annual SSN = 136.2 [+ or -] 14.8, maximum annual SSA = 1,461.5 [+ or -] 261.2 millionths of a solar hemisphere, and maximum annual NARE = 2,771 [+ or -] 330 for SC25. As of March 2019, there have been no occurrences of high-latitude new-cycle spots (>30[degrees]) during the decline of ongoing SC24. Monthly values of SSN, SSA, and NARE are now well within the range of expected values indicative of the approaching SC24/25 cycle minimum, especially values since November 2017. Hence, another prolonged cycle-minimum period, as was experienced for SC23/24, may be underway for SC24/25., INTRODUCTION Sunspot number (SSN) has been described as being the 'longest available record of solar activity,' spanning some four centuries in length (Clette et al. 2007). While true, it should [...]

ABSTRACT This is the second paper in a two-part study of predicting the size and timing of the next sunspot cycle (SC)25. Paper I examined the behavior of sunspot number [...]

ABSTRACT This paper (Paper 1) provides estimates of the period (PER) for sunspot cycle (SC)24, the current ongoing solar cycle, and the timing and size of the next solar cycle, [...]

Sunspot cycle (SC) 24, the present ongoing SC, is now in its 9th year, having had a minimum in annual sunspot number (SSN) in 2008, measuring 4.2, and a minimum in 'smoothed' SSN in December 2008, measuring 2.2. Its maximum annual SSN occurred in 2014, measuring 113.3, and its maximum smoothed SSN occurred in April 2014, measuring 116.4. Following smoothed SSN maximum (SSN max), the first spotless day (FSD) during the decline of SC24 was reported in July 2014, a mere 3 months following SC24's maximum SSN amplitude, an interval shorter than the 13 months found for SC 12 and the 8 months for SC 14. Through December 2016, some 27 spotless days (1 in 2014 and 26 in 2016) have been seen, with more to come as SC25's epoch of minimum approaches. Examined in this study are the following three factors: (1) the variation in number of spotless days (NSD) relative to the epochs of sunspot minimum (SSN min) and SSN max, (2) the association between the maximum NSD and the SSN min, and (3) cyclic variations of selected spotless day-associated parameters. It is suggested that SC25's epoch of SSN min likely will occur sometime in 2020 or later and that SC24's NSD behavior represents a return to that experienced during SC12 and SC14. Hence, another prolonged minimum, like that experienced for SC23/24, might well occur for SC24/25. For comparison, SC24's interval of spotless days from first to last spotless day bounding SSN min extended 84 months and totaled 816 spotless days, with 265 spotless days reported during the year of annual SSN min., INTRODUCTION Sunspots are the dark, cool regions of enhanced magnetic field strength found on the Sun that vary in number, size, and magnetic complexity over the course of the sunspot [...]

ABSTRACT Based on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray observations (0.1-0.8 nm), the variations in the solar X-ray background flux and number of solar soft X-ray flares are [...]

ABSTRACT On the basis of yearly means of the total corrected sunspot area (SSA) and the newly revised sunspot number (SSN) for the interval 1875-2015, it is shown that the [...]

"Watershed Manager" is a spreadsheet-based model that is used in extension education programs for learning about and selecting cost-effective watershed management practices to reduce soil, nitrogen, and phosphorus losses from cropland. It can facilitate Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategy (WRAPS) stakeholder groups' development of comprehensive watershed management plans that are required to be eligible for state and federal funding. This tool was developed to educate stakeholders about alternative best management practices (BMPs) that result in improvements in water quality and to select the combination of BMPs that yield the largest improvement in water quality per dollar spent. Users are able to estimate, optimize, and compare the economic and environmental effects of alternative management practices. WRAPS represents a citizen/stakeholder-led approach rather than a government-mandated and directed approach to watershed management. Kansas WRAPS is a state-sanctioned process whereby watershed protection and restoration plans are created and implemented. Funds, guidance, and technical assistance are provided for stakeholders to reach consensus on issues of relevance in their watershed and to design and execute a plan to address those issues. Cost-effective conservation is a way of getting the largest benefit for the dollars invested, but it is not always the most politically or socially palatable approach. Watershed Manager allows local stakeholders to cost-effectively identify politically and socially acceptable management practices. Watershed Manager has been utilized in developing cost-effective implementation plans to meet total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for 16 Hydrologic Unit Code 8 (HUC 8) watersheds in Kansas through the WRAPS program. (Contains 9 figures.)

ABSTRACT Effective July 1, 2015, the International sunspot number database was revised to correct a number of inhomogeneities in the sunspot number series. In particular, the revision has affected the [...]

ABSTRACT This study examines tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, spanning 1960-2014 and representing the most reliable period of observations associated with tropical [...]

Writing is a vital activity for all academic geographers and essential to their success. But few graduate programs devote courses to teaching MA and PhD students how to write even though qualitative and quantitative methods courses are now commonplace. This article discusses some of the major critiques of academic writing and how I have sought to address these criticisms in Writing Geography, a graduate seminar I developed to help students improve their research writing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than other films of the era, these movies explored the New Deal as a response to the ecological and economic calamities of the 1930s. 4 Since these two films seek to usher in a twenty-first-century New Deal, it is worth comparing them to the classic films of the original New Deal, particularly Lorentz's The Plow That Broke the Plains (1936) andTheRiver. Unlike The River and other films that celebrated the original New Deal after it was underway, this video imagines what "could be" if the federal government enacts the Green New Deal. 4 The Devil We Know, directed by Stephanie Soechtig and Jeremy Seifert, Atlas Films in association with Diamond Docs, 2018. [Extracted from the article]

This essay fuses memoir, oral history, and creative nonfiction to tell a personal historical geography of abortion and adoption before Roe v. Wade in the United States. I narrate the story of my birthmother's unplanned pregnancy in the early 1970s and her fraught journey that ultimately led her to surrender me for adoption. Drawing on scholarship from history and geography about abortion and adoption, I contextualize her decisions to better understand the choices she made nearly fifty years ago that led to my relinquishment. Narrating her story and mine will help scholars in the geohumanities glimpse the challenges women with unplanned pregnancies faced in that era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports findings of educational audit of reading personnel in a large suburban school district to determine their effectiveness in the various roles they perform. (FL)

Investigates the use of closed captioned television to improve the sight vocabulary of adults receiving literacy instruction. Finds that students' sight vocabulary increased significantly and that student attitudes to closed captioned television were extremely positive. (RS)