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In this paper, we introduce a robust estimator of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. The estimator is obtained through the use of the minimum density power divergence with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The proposed estimator is compared to existing minimum density power divergence estimators of the tail index based on fitting an extended Pareto distribution and exponential regression model on log-ratio of spacings of order statistics. We derive the influence function and gross error sensitivity of the proposed estimator of the tail index to study its robustness properties. In addition, a simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the estimators under different contaminated samples from different distributions. The results show that our proposed estimator of the tail index has better mean square errors and is less sensitive to an increase in the number of top order statistics. In addition, the estimation of the exponential regression model yields estimates of second-order parameters that can be used for estimation of extreme events such as quantiles and exceedance probabilities. The proposed estimator is illustrated with practical datasets on insurance claims and calcium content in soil samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes an open-set recognition model that is based on the use of extreme value statistics. For this purpose, a distance ratio is introduced that expresses how dissimilar a target point is from the known classes by considering the ratio of distances locally around the target point. It is shown that the class of generalized Pareto distributions with bounded support can be used to model the peaks of the distance ratio above a high threshold. The resulting distribution provides a probabilistic framework to perform open-set recognition. Furthermore, we describe a numerical procedure to estimate the hyperparameters of our model. This procedure is based on a new objective function that considers both the fit of the generalized Pareto distribution and the misclassification error of the known classes. Our method is applied to three image datasets and an audio dataset showing that it outperforms similar open-set recognition and anomaly detection methods. for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop and study in the framework of Pareto-type distributions a class of nonparametric kernel estimators for the conditional second order tail parameter. The estimators are obtained by local estimation of the conditional second order parameter using a moving window approach. Asymptotic normality of the proposed class of kernel estimators is proven under some suitable conditions on the kernel function and the conditional tail quantile function. The nonparametric estimators for the second order parameter are subsequently used to obtain a class of bias-corrected kernel estimators for the conditional tail index. In particular it is shown how for a given kernel function one obtains a bias-corrected kernel function, and that replacing the second order parameter in the latter with a consistent estimator does not change the limiting distribution of the bias-corrected estimator for the conditional tail index. The finite sample behavior of some specific estimators is illustrated with a simulation experiment. The developed methodology is also illustrated on fire insurance claim data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the late 1960s J.H. Venter started to investigate the use of test statistics for normality based on quadratic distances between the order statistics of the sample and the corresponding hypothetical quantiles. These types of statistics are closely related to the (already known at that time) Shapiro-Wilkes'statistics, for which the limiting distribution was not yet known. The behaviour of the statistics investigated by Venter was such that the standard approach of that time, the so-called stochastic process approach, was insufficient to derive their limiting distribution. However, by writing the statistic in terms of order statistics from a uniform distribution and employing the representation of such order statistics in terms of independent, identically distributed exponential random variables, he was able to approximate the statistic by a quadratic form in independent, identically distributed random variables. This led him to the study of the limiting behaviour of the latter, for which results were not available to handle the statistics he was interested in. The results needed were derived and applied to the statistics of interest, constituting pioneering research that in later years led to the derivation of the limiting distribution of inter alia, the Shapiro-Wilk statistic and many other statistics of a quadratic type. The words of Del Barrio, Cuesta-Albertos, Matran and Rodriguez-Rodriguez in a recent paper, "All the proofs of the asymptotic behaviour of these statistics.., rely on the results in ... "', emphasize the fundamental contributions of Venter's earlier work. In the current paper the above-mentioned contribution and the work flowing from it, are discussed and placed in a historical context. In particular, it is shown that by using an expression for the distribution of uniform order statistics in terms of ratios of sums of independent, identically distributed exponential random variables, the test statistic can be shown to be asymptotically equivalent to a quadratic form in independent, identically distributed random variables. For the latter the results known at that time were insufficient and stronger results had to be developed in order to obtain a limiting distribution. This limiting distribution was obtained as that of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables with one degree of freedom each. The latter's characteristic function could be found quite easily and inverted numerically to obtain critical values for the test. The constants in the linear combination are closely related to the eigenvalues of the matrix whose entries are the constants in the quadratic form. It was shown how these constants can be found by transforming the required integral equation into a differential equation for which the classical orthogonal polynomials provide solutions. In this paper it is also shown how these quadratic statistics are related to degenerate U-statistics and correlation-type test statistics, leading to the same limiting distribution. A number of extensions of other researchers are also discussed, as well as more recent developments based on the original work of Venter. To be more specific, at the time of Venter's research, the general approach to deriving the limiting distribution of such quadratic statistics was by means of a so-called stochastic process approach. In that case the statistic was written as a quadratic functional of the empirical process or of the quantile process, for which the limiting distribution was known in terms of the Brownian Bridge process. However, that approach could not be applied to the type of statistics Venter considered, which led him to consider the approach based on quadratic forms discussed above. During the past 30+ years the available tools on empirical and quantile processes have developed immensely, which meant that the stochastic process approach was again a viable option.… [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the late 1960s J.H. Venter started to investigate the use of test statistics for normality based on quadratic distances between the order statistics of the sample and the corresponding hypothetical quantiles. These types of statistics are closely related to the (already known at that time) Shapiro-Wilk32 statistics, for which the limiting distribution was not yet known. The behaviour of the statistics investigated by Venter was such that the standard approach of that time, the so-called stochastic process approach, was insufficient to derive their limiting distribution. However, by writing the statistic in terms of order statistics from a uniform distribution and employing the representation of such order statistics in terms of independent, identically distributed exponential random variables, he was able to approximate the statistic by a quadratic form in independent, identically distributed random variables. This led him to the study of the limiting behaviour of the latter, for which results were not available to handle the statistics he was interested in. The results needed were derived and applied to the statistics of interest, constituting pioneering research that in later years led to the derivation of the limiting distribution of, inter alia, the Shapiro-Wilk statistic and many other statistics of a quadratic type. The words of Del Barrio, Cuesta-Albertos, Matran and Rodriguez-Rodriguez in a recent paper10, "All the proofs of the asymptotic behaviour of these statistics ... rely on the results in ...", emphasize the fundamental contributions of Venter's earlier work. In the current paper the above-mentioned contribution and the work flowing from it, are discussed and placed in a historical context. In particular, it is shown that by using an expression for the distribution of uniform order statistics in terms of ratios of sums of independent, identically distributed exponential random variables, the test statistic can be shown to be asymptotically equivalent to a quadratic form in independent, identically distributed random variables. For the latter the results known at that time were insufficient and stronger results had to be developed in order to obtain a limiting distribution. This limiting distribution was obtained as that of a linear combination of independent chi-squared random variables with one degree of freedom each. The latter's characteristic function could be found quite easily and inverted numerically to obtain critical values for the test. The constants in the linear combination are closely related to the eigenvalues of the matrix whose entries are the constants in the quadratic form. It was shown how these constants can be found by transforming the required integral equation into a differential equation for which the classical orthogonal polynomials provide solutions. In this paper it is also shown how these quadratic statistics are related to degenerate Ustatistics and correlation-type test statistics, leading to the same limiting distribution. A number of extensions of other researchers are also discussed, as well as more recent developments based on the original work of Venter. To be more specific, at the time of Venter's research, the general approach to deriving the limiting distribution of such quadratic statistics was by means of a socalled stochastic process approach. In that case the statistic was written as a quadratic functional of the empirical process or of the quantile process, for which the limiting distribution was known in terms of the Brownian Bridge process.… [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The fit of a statistical model can be visually assessed by inspection of a quantile–quantile or QQ plot. For the strict Pareto distribution, since log-transformed Pareto random variables are exponentially distributed, it is natural to consider an exponential quantile plot based on the log-transformed data. In case the data originate from a Pareto-type distribution, the Pareto quantile plot will be linear but only in some of the largest observations. In this paper we modify the Jackson statistic, originally proposed as a goodness-of-fit statistic for testing exponentiality, in such a way that it measures the linearity of the k largest observations on the Pareto quantile plot. Further, by taking the second-order tail behaviour of a Pareto-type model into account we construct a bias-corrected Jackson statistic. For both statistics the limiting distribution is derived. Next to these asymptotic results we also evaluate the small sample behaviour on the basis of a simulation study. The method is illustrated on two practical case studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is an important issue in different scientific disciplines. Up to now, the extreme value literature focused mainly on estimation procedures based on independent and identically distributed samples. Our contribution is a two-step procedure for estimating extreme conditional quantiles. In a first step nonextreme conditional quantiles are estimated nonparametrically using a local version of [Koenker, R. and Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica , 46 , 33-50.] regression quantile methodology. Next, these nonparametric quantile estimates are used as analogues of univariate order statistics in procedures for extreme quantile estimation. The performance of the method is evaluated for both heavy tailed distributions and distributions with a finite right endpoint using a small sample simulation study. A bootstrap procedure is developed to guide in the selection of an optimal local bandwidth. Finally the procedure is illustrated in two case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we revisit the construction of confidence intervals for extreme quantiles of Pareto‐type distributions. A novel asymptotic pivotal quantity is proposed for these quantile estimators, which leads to new asymptotic confidence intervals that exhibit more accurate coverage probability. This pivotal quantity also allows for the construction of a saddle‐point approximation, from which a second set of new confidence intervals follows. The small‐sample properties and utility of these confidence intervals are studied using simulations and a case study from insurance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Moravian Church was the first denomination to begin with missionary work among the indigenous people in South Africa and today the church still has a very strong presence in the country. After opening their first mission at Genadendal in 1738, a number of further mission stations were established during the nineteenth century in the Western Cape. These missionary stations played an extremely important part in the lives of their residents, both spiritually and socially. In the Moravian Church, as in other churches, their church buildings and the bells accompanying them form an integral part of their heritage. Despite the research that has been carried out on the mission stations per se, no systematic research has been done on the bells at these stations. In this article the authors discuss these bells, when and where they came from, and who made them. Due to the historical value of these mission stations, the authors cannot consider the bells without some background discussion of the stations' history. A brief historical background is provided for each station before focusing on the bells at that station and who cast them. Finally, a number of areas for further research are touched upon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regression Quantiles (RQs) (see Koenker and Bassett, 1978) can be found as optimal solutions to a Linear Programming (LP) problem. Also, these optimal solutions correspond to specific elemental regressions (ERs). On the other hand, single case ordinary least squares (OLS) leverage statistics can be expressed as weighted averages of ER ones. Using this three-tier relationship amongst RQs, ERs, and OLS leverage statistics some relationships between single case leverage statistics and ER ones are explored and deduced. We build upon these results and propose a multiple-case RQ weighted predictive leverage statistic,TJ. We do this using an ER view of the well-known leverage relationship,, by summing the ER weighted predictive leverage statistics over all ERs (RQs included) instead of over observations, i.e.,. As an ad-hoc cut-off value of this statistic we make use of the analog of the Hoaglin and Welsch (1978) one, i.e., high leverage points have. So in the RQ weighted predictive leverage scenario, the cut-off value becomes, whereKis the total number of ERs. We then apply this RQ high leverage diagnostic to well-known data sets in the literature. The cut-off value used generally seems too small. Some proposals of cut-off values based on some analytical bounds and a simulation study are therefore given and shown to be reasonable. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We introduce new families of estimators for the Weibull-tail coefficient, obtained from a weighted sum of a power transformation of excesses over a high random threshold. Asymptotic normality of the estimators is proven for an intermediate sequence of upper order statistics, and under classical regularity conditions for L-statistics and a second-order condition on the tail behavior of the underlying distribution. The small sample performance of two specific examples of kernel functions is evaluated in a simulation study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We develop and study in the framework of Pareto-type distributions a general class of kernel estimators for the second order parameter , a parameter related to the rate of convergence of a sequence of linearly normalized maximum values towards its limit. Inspired by the kernel goodness-of-fit statistics introduced in , for which the mean of the normal limiting distribution is a function of , we construct estimators for using ratios of ratios of differences of such goodness-of-fit statistics, involving different kernel functions as well as power transformations. The consistency of this class of estimators is established under some mild regularity conditions on the kernel function, a second order condition on the tail function 1−F of the underlying model, and for suitably chosen intermediate order statistics. Asymptotic normality is achieved under a further condition on the tail function, the so-called third order condition. Two specific examples of kernel statistics are studied in greater depth, and their asymptotic behavior illustrated numerically. The finite sample properties are examined by means of a simulation study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]