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Aggregate load modeling is of fundamental importance for systematic analysis and design of various demand response strategies. Instead of keeping track of the trajectories of individual loads, the aggregate modeling problem focuses on characterizing the density evolution of the load population. Most existing models are only applicable to thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) with first-order linear dynamics. This paper develops a unified aggregate modeling approach that can be used for general TCLs as well as deferrable loads. We propose a deterministic hybrid system model to describe individual load dynamics under demand response rules, and develop a general stochastic hybrid system (SHS) model to capture the population dynamics. We also derive a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) that govern the probability density evolution of the SHS. Our results cannot be obtained using the existing SHS tools in the literature as the proposed SHS model involves both random and deterministic switchings with general switching surfaces in multidimensional domains. The derived PDE model includes many existing aggregate load modeling results as special cases and can be used in many other realistic modeling scenarios that have not been studied in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study a class of risk-sensitive mean-field stochastic differential games. We show that under appropriate regularity conditions, the mean-field value of the stochastic differential game with exponentiated integral cost functional coincides with the value function satisfying a Hamilton –Jacobi– Bellman (HJB) equation with an additional quadratic term. We provide an explicit solution of the mean-field best response when the instantaneous cost functions are log-quadratic and the state dynamics are affine in the control. An equivalent mean-field risk-neutral problem is formulated and the corresponding mean-field equilibria are characterized in terms of backward-forward macroscopic McKean–Vlasov equations, Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equations, and HJB equations. We provide numerical examples on the mean field behavior to illustrate both linear and McKean–Vlasov dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The purpose of this paper is to synthesize initial mean consensus behavior of a set of agents from the fundamental optimization principles of i) stochastic dynamic games, and ii) optimal control. In the stochastic dynamic game model each agent seeks to minimize its individual quadratic discounted cost function involving the mean of the states of all other agents. In this formulation we derive the limiting infinite population mean field equation system and explicitly compute its unique solution. The resulting mean field (MF) control strategies drive each agent to track the overall population's initial state distribution mean, and by applying these decentralized strategies, any finite population system reaches mean consensus asymptotically as time goes to infinity. Furthermore, these control laws possess an \varepsilonN-Nash equilibrium property where \varepsilonN goes to zero as the population size N goes to infinity. Finally, the analysis is extended to the case of random mean field couplings. In the social cooperative formulation the basic objective is to minimize a social cost as the sum of the individual cost functions containing mean field coupling. In this formulation we show that for any individual agent the decentralized mean field social (MF Social) control strategy is the same as the mean field Nash (MF Nash) equilibrium strategy. Hence $MF-Nash\ Controls\ UNash^N=\rm MF-Social\ Controls\ USoc^N.$On the other hand, the solution to the centralized LQR optimal control formulation yields the Standard Consensus (SC) algorithm whenever the graph representing the corresponding topology of the network is Completely Connected (CC). Hence $Cent.\ LQR\ Controls\ UCent^N=\rm SC-CC\ Controls\ USC^N.$Moreover, a system with centralized control laws reaches consensus on the initial state distribution mean as time and population size N go to infinity. Hence, asymptotically in time $\eqalignno&MF-Nash\ Controls\ UNash^N\!=\!\,\rm MF-Social\ Controls\ USoc^N\cr&\!=\!\,\rm Cent.\ \rm LQR\ Controls\ UCent^\infty \!=\! \,\rm SC-CC\ Controls\ USC^\infty.$Finally, the analysis is extended to the long time average (LTA) cost functions case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]