Search

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers are tasked with implementing and evaluating strategies for both treatment and disease prevention. In order to make effective decisions, they need to simultaneously monitor various attributes of the pandemic such as transmission rate and infection rate for disease prevention, recovery rate which indicates treatment effectiveness as well as the mortality rate and others. This work presents a technique for monitoring the pandemic by employing an Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Death model regularly estimated by an augmented particle Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme in which the posterior distribution samples are monitored via Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Average process monitoring. This is illustrated on the COVID-19 data for the State of Qatar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predator-prey models are often used in ecology to represent realistic encounters between species. Lotka-Volterra differential equations are famously used by ecologists to model the relationship between a predator and prey. Given ecological data collection is known to be time consuming and difficult, the purpose of this paper is to optimize the process and improve sampling efficiency. The method of sequential optimality is applied to a more complex population model with multiple basins of attraction, the Lotka-Volterra differential equations. In this application, various theoretical scenarios are simulated using varying sample sizes and timeframes to determine optimal designs. The first scenario uses a standard sample size and design window to represent a realistic budget for ecological data collection. The second scenario decreases the budget and extends the design window as a representation of a limited budget. The third scenario represents ample resources available for sampling. The three scenarios are used to then compare the optimal designs and help ecologists evaluate the method of sequential optimality. I, A and D optimal designs are compared in the simulation results. The I-optimality criterion tends to outperform the A and D criteria and is recommended as a primary selection when using the sequential optimality algorithm. This simulation study has further developed sequential optimality by predicting optimal sampling regimes according to the dynamics associated with the Lotka-Volterra differential equations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Toxicologists are often concerned with determining the dosage to which an individual can be exposed with an acceptable risk of adverse effect. These types of studies have been conducted widely in the past, and many novel approaches have been developed. Parametric techniques utilizing ANOVA and non-linear regression models are well represented in the literature. The biggest drawback of parametric approaches is the need to specify the adequate model. Recently, there has been an interest in nonparametric approaches to tolerable dosage estimation. In this work, we focus on the monotonically decreasing dose-response model where the response is a percent to control. This imposes two constraints on the nonparametric approach: the dose-response function must be monotonic and always positive. Here, we propose a Bayesian solution to this problem using a novel class of non-parametric models. A set of basis functions developed in this research is Alamri Monotonic spline (AM-spline). Our approach is illustrated using two simulated datasets and two experimental datasets from pesticide related research at the US Environmental Protection Agency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Profile monitoring is defined as the act of utilizing regression and quality control techniques to monitor the functional relationship between a response variable and one or more regressors. Most of the previous studies focused either on parametric modeling of profiles or assumed the response variable followed a normal distribution, but that is an unrealistic scenario in most cases. In this study, a Haar wavelet approach is applied for profile monitoring of Poisson data. We showed via simulation that, Haar wavelet can outperform parametric models when there is a sudden jump in the profile and concluded with a case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase of exposure to toxic materials and hazardous chemicals is a major concern due to the adverse effect on human health. Among the major concerns of toxicologists is to determine acceptable levels of exposure to hazardous substances. Current approaches often evaluate each endpoint and stressor individually. We propose a novel method to simultaneously determine the Benchmark Dose Tolerable Region (BMDTR) for multiple endpoint and multiple stressor studies by adopting a Bayesian approach. A main concern while assessing the combined toxicological effect of a chemical mixture is the anticipated type of the combined action (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic); thus it was essential to account for interaction effects to handle this situation, imposing more challenges due to the non-linearity of the tolerable region. The proposed method will be evaluated using two approaches, the first one using the estimated value of the posterior median and the second approach using all MCMC samples from the posterior distribution. Furthermore, we propose a new method to determine the endpoint probabilities for each endpoint, which reflects the importance of each endpoint in helping determining the boundaries of the benchmark dose tolerable region (BMDTR). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of statistical calibration of a measuring instrument can be framed both in a statistical context as well as in an engineering context. In the first, the problem is dealt with by distinguishing between the ‘classical’ approach and the ‘inverse’ regression approach. Both of these models are static models and are used to estimate exact measurements from measurements that are affected by error. In the engineering context, the variables of interest are considered to be taken at the time at which you observe it. The Bayesian time series analysis method of Dynamic Linear Models can be used to monitor the evolution of the measures, thus introducing adynamicapproach to statistical calibration. The research presented employs a new approach to performing statistical calibration. A simulation study in the context of microwave radiometry is conducted that compares the dynamic model to traditional static frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The focus of the study is to understand how well thedynamic statistical calibrationmethod performs under various signal-to-noise ratios,r. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Bayesian analysis often requires the researcher to employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to draw samples from a posterior distribution which in turn is used to make inferences. Currently, several approaches to determine convergence of the chain as well as sensitivities of the resulting inferences have been developed. This work develops a Hellinger distance approach to MCMC diagnostics. An approximation to the Hellinger distance between two distributionsfandgbased on sampling is introduced. This approximation is studied via simulation to determine the accuracy. A criterion for using this Hellinger distance for determining chain convergence is proposed as well as a criterion for sensitivity studies. These criteria are illustrated using a dataset concerning theAnguilla australis, an eel native to New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Bayesian inclusion probabilities have become a popular tool for variable assessment. From a frequentist perspective, it is often difficult to evaluate these probabilities as typically no Type I error rates are considered, neither are any explorations of power of the methods given. This paper considers how a frequentist may evaluate Bayesian inclusion probabilities for screening predictors. This evaluation looks at both unrestricted and restricted model spaces and develops a framework which a frequentist can utilize inclusion probabilities that preserve Type I error rates. Furthermore, this framework is applied to an analysis of the Arabidopsis thaliana with respect to determining quantitative trait loci associated with cotelydon opening angle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lack of success in restoring the native Eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, to Chesapeake Bay has been linked to the low occurrence of oyster larval setting in tributaries to the Bay. Among the many potential factors that could affect efforts to produce oysters through aquaculture or supplementation of shell beds is substratum condition. The present study examined larval setting on field-produced biofilms from Little Wicomico River (Virginia, USA) to assess whether bacterial community structure (examined by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism, T-RFLP) or other characteristics of contemporary biofilms in this tributary (biofilm age and mass, algal abundance, and percentage organic matter) inhibited setting of larval oysters. The structure of the natural and heterogenous bacterial community in the biofilms and the success of oyster set were correlated, suggesting that specific microbial species may play a role in oyster setting. Larval set increased with biofilm age and mass, suggesting that established field-produced biofilms have no inhibitory effect. In contrast, the percentage of organic matter was negatively correlated with oyster set, whereas chlorophyll a concentration had no observed effect. The study expands prior knowledge by providing a more realistic timeframe for biofilm development (weeks as opposed to days), recounting effects of biofilms that are more representative of the natural dynamic and disturbance processes that would be expected to occur on submerged structures, and by incorporating seasonal and spatial variation. An important negative effect observed during the study period was heavy predation by Stylochus ellipticus on newly set oysters. Overall, the results of this study, which is the first assessment of the effects of biofilms produced naturally within a Chesapeake Bay tributary, suggest that the absence of large numbers of oysters in Little Wicomico River is not related to microbes or other specific characteristics of biofilms that develop on suitable setting substrata, but rather to heavy predation of newly set larvae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]