Search

CERN is a pure research laboratory devoted to elementary particle physics. On top of this mission of discovery, it has also the duties of technological innovation, of human resource development and international collaboration, the latter not being restricted to its member states, as explained in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title captures the gist of the Neo-Kondratieff Agenda: Can long waves break? This question looms large in EU countries. The Lisbon 2010 Mission depends on the breakability of the low, slow long trends considered stiff in many EU countries. The point is that some of these slow trends may change fast, indicating fast renewal. Schumpeter attributed to Kondratieff the regular, slow moving Long Wave Concept (K-Model). Had Kondratieff not been imprisoned for his contrary economic theory, and shot upon order of Stalin, Kondratieff himself may have objected to his name being attached to such a stiff macro-wave mechanism in socio-economic life. He knew better. Kuznets (“Secular movements in production and prices”) started the Neo-Kondratieff Agenda with the notion of irregular movements (Kuznets: “atypical Kondratieff”). And I followed suit, in 1975, with the Metamorphosis (M-Model) as an alternative to Schumpeter's K-Model, proposing overlapping S-curves, implying the possibility that the economic system may shift fast from the stagnant branch of an old S-Curve towards the fast growing branch of the new S-Curve: A growth spurt. That is what goes on when a “long wave” breaks. In this paper, I analyze Structural Instability (alias: breakability) by means of a potential function, apply it to the Roaring Twenties (and the crash 1929/31), and to the New Deal thereafter. The approach is robust and transferable to today: To the Roaring Nineties, the crash 1999-01 and a Neo-New Deal 2005 ff. this is “synthetic” Economic Evolution. These contingencies vary from country to country (place dependencies), and depend on speed of better understanding, and learning (pace dependencies). Key impact area of this type of social learning is the financial service area. There will be much shake-out associated with the new take-off, as banks and governments prefer supporting big firms in old industries. The Neo-New Deal will favour European Small and Mid-Sized Firms' Innovations that open up new avenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper gives a brief historical account of the discussion on innovations clustering, reviewing Kuznet's criticism on Schumpeter's cluster-of-innovation hypothesis. Thereafter engages into econometric analyses of time series of major innovations that were produced by various authors. We conclude that much is to be said in favour of a rehabilitation of Schumpeter's (1939) cluster-of-innovation hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]