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This paper used Bayesian Hierarchical Models, particularly the usual Poisson-Gamma model and the Poisson-Gamma model with Covariates in estimating the relative risk of HIV prevalence in Ilocos Region instead of using the Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) which is a frequentist approach. The study in the relative risk of HIV prevalence is significant due to its present nature of being incurable. The use of Poisson distribution as likelihood in relative risk estimation is appropriate because HIV prevalence is independent, that is, when the infection occurs, it does not affect the probability of another infection occurring in the same area. The appropriateness of Gamma distribution as the prior distribution is due to the fact Poisson and Gamma distributions are from the same family of distributions. Covariates are considered in this study to possibly improve the precision of results and to prohibit alternative explanations for the results due to the population of sexually active males and the number of diagnosed tuberculosis patients per municipality or city. It is confirmed that the application of Bayesian Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Gamma with Covariates hierarchical models exhibit more stable HIV relative risk estimates and shrinkage when compared to SIR. There is no implication of a significant difference between the two Bayesian Hierarchical Models after the application of Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). It is recommended when applying the Poisson-Gamma model with Covariates to consider other fixed effects related to HIV prevalence to further improve the model. Lastly, the Bayesian Hierarchical Models presented in this paper can be utilized in estimating the posterior relative risk of other rare or infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the factor analysis of HIV transmission through mobile heterosexual population. The analysis of qualitative properties of the dynamics are done. In a continuous dynamical system involving various parameters, it is possible that a small change in a parameter has tremendous impact on the solution of the system. The bifurcation analysis is to study a dynamical system with respect to the trajectory represented by system, the occurrence of an equilibrium points and the stability properties of the equilibrium point, when changes occur in a certain parameter. The behavior of the system of heterosexual affected population is examined by means of bifurcation analysis. The robustness of the dynamics is also analyzed by hyperbolic equilibrium point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV/AIDS is an infectious disease caused by the infection of HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) virus that decrease the immune system by attacking and damaging CD4 cells which are types of white blood cells (lymphocytes). The decreasing of immune system due to HIV virus then causes damage to AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome). People with HIV virus infection can take an ARV (Anti Retroviral Therapy) treatment. ARV treatment is an effort that can be done to reduce the HIV viruses inside the body and can extend life time before the disease turn into AIDS. In this paper, a mathematical model of the spread of HIV/AIDS with education and treatment will be discussed. Furthermore, a numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis of basic reproductive numbers will be discussed to determine the parameters which havethe most effect on the spread of HIV/AIDS disease. In the mathematical model of the spread of HIV/AIDS with education and treatment, the most influential parameters is the rate of transmission of susceptible individuals caused by an undiagnosed HIV virus individual and the level of success of education given to susceptible individuals as an effort to prevent the spread of HIV viruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The community's discriminatory attitude towards people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) is a major obstacle in the examination, prevention, and treatment process of HIV/AIDS. Previous study had concluded an existence of negative correlation between knowledge about HIV/AIDS and discriminatory attitude toward PLWHA. In regard to the pattern, it seems that the data is exponentially decreasing. However, in some parts especially in the tail of the data, the patterns are not the same. This study aims to apply nonparametric smoothing method to the relationship between comprehensive knowledge and discriminatory attitude. In this study we implement Nadaraya-Watson Estimator and Local Polynomial Estimator. Data of individual women module from Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey 2017 is applied. Results shows that the most suitable nonparametric model describing relationship pattern between comprehensive knowledge about HIV and discriminatory attitudes toward PLWH is the Local Polynomial Estimator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]