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Accurate traffic flow prediction can effectively improve traffic efficiency and safety. This has become a trending topic in intelligent transportation systems. However, the occurrence of traffic accidents will cause great fluctuations of traffic flow in a short time, thus affecting the accuracy of flow prediction. This paper analyses the influence of traffic accident information on traffic flow, and proposes a grey convolutional neural network called G-CNN for traffic flow prediction. First, considering the small sample size of traffic accidents and the incomplete information description, the traffic flow and traffic speed change rate are defined to represent traffic accident grey information, and a grey fixed-weight clustering method for extracting the characteristics of traffic accident grey information is established. Second, the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic flow are analysed, and a third-order tensor is developed to fuse them with the accident characteristics and serve as the input of the G-CNN. Then the G-CNN model is built to predict traffic flow in a traffic accident environment. The Canadian Whitemud Drive experiment on traffic flow without traffic accident information reveals that the developed G-CNN model has a better ability to predict future traffic flow with better accuracy and stability. Meanwhile, it is verified that the fluctuation of the traffic change rate will cause traffic accidents, and the probability of traffic accidents at a certain time point will be obtained through feature extraction of traffic accidents. Finally, the model is verified for the traffic flow of Hangzhou Viaduct in China, which demonstrates that the G-CNN model outperforms all of the compared models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-related factors are a crucial inducement of traffic accidents. Understanding the influence of freeway environments on the driving behavior and workload experienced by drivers has been demonstrated to be of primary importance for improving traffic safety. To study the effect of alignment, traffic flow, and sign information on drivers' mental workload and behavior, 16 scenarios were constructed using the orthogonal design method, and simulated driving experiments were carried out with 45 participants. During driving, indicators such as the mean and standard deviation of vehicle speed and lane departure were collected, and the NASA-TLX questionnaire was adopted to measure workload. Analysis of variance results indicated that the radius of the horizontal curve, gradient, flow, and sign information level have a significant influence on drivers' workload and speed keeping ability. In addition, the horizontal curve radius has a significant effect on lane keeping ability. The importance of safety influencing factors on driving workload and performance was quantitatively ranked by integrating the trend of Deng's correlation degree, comprehensive correlation degree, and similar correlation degree, whose weight was calculated using the entropy method. Traffic sign information was found to have the greatest impact on workload. In terms of driving performance, traffic volume has the greatest influence on the mean and standard deviation of vehicle speed, followed by the amount of sign information. Lane departure is most affected by the radius of the horizontal curve. These findings provide guidance for freeway traffic safety regulation, including workload control and road facility optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Firstly tested Traffic Climate Scale (TCS) and Positive Driver Behaviours Scale among 887 drivers in China. • The Chinese TCS has a highly reliable and stable three-factor structure. • Measures of convergent validity support validity of the Chinese TCS. • Showed the links between traffic safety climate, driver behaviours and traffic accidents involvement. Abstract Traffic Climate Scale (TCS) and Positive Driver Behaviours Scale (PDBS) are new measurement tools. The study aims to translate the TCS and PDBS into Chinese and to assess their factor structures in a large sample of licensed motor vehicle drivers in China. A further aim is to investigate the effects of TCS factors on drivers' behaviours and traffic accidents involvement. Data were collected using an online survey. Participants were 887 fully licensed motor vehicle drivers, including 531 males and 356 females who completed a Chinese translated questionnaire including the TCS, PDBS, Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ), items related to drivers' driving records and demographic characteristics. The result of the exploratory factor analysis revealed clear three-factor solution ('Functionality', 'External affective demand' and 'Internal requirement') of TCS with high item loadings and acceptable internal consistency coefficients. The convergent validity of the Chinese TCS was supported by its relationship with driver behaviour factors (violations, errors, lapses and positive behaviours), the traffic accidents involvement and demographic characteristics. The results further show that the external affective demand consistently and positively relate to aberrant behaviours and negatively relate to positive behaviours with indirect positive significant effects on accidents involvement. Functionality is concurrently and negatively related to aberrant behaviours and positively related to positive behaviours with no effects on accidents involvement. The internal requirement is negatively related to aberrant behaviours but, positively related to positive behaviours with positive significant direct effects on accidents involvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the rear-end early warning methods of connected automated vehicles (CAVs) is useful for issuing early warnings and reducing traffic accidents. Establishing a corresponding driving model according to CAV characteristics is necessary when designing intelligent decision and control systems, especially for the safety speed threshold. However, since traffic systems are stochastic, there are random factors that influence car-following behavior. Therefore, this study proposes a rear-end collision warning method for CAVs based on a stochastic local multivehicle optimal speed (SLMOV) car-following model. First, the SLMOV model is proposed to characterize the car-following behavior of CAVs. Simultaneously, a stability analysis and parameter estimation method are discussed. Second, the safety distance between the CAVs changes with time because the speed of the rear vehicles satisfies the SLMOV model, which is used to calculate the safety probability of rear-end CAV collisions through an analysis of the driving process. The speed threshold is assessed by controlling the rear-end collision probability. Third, next-generation simulation (NGSIM) data are used in an empirical analysis of a rear-end collision warning method on the basis of a parameter estimation of the SLMOV model. The results present the speed thresholds of vehicles under different braking deceleration levels. Finally, the merits and demerits of fixed-speed and variable-speed adjustment time intervals are compared by considering driving safety and comfort as evaluation indexes. A reasonable CAV adjustment time interval of 0.4 s is determined. This result can be used to help develop a vehicle loading rear-end collision warning system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risky driving behavior (RDB) is one of the human factors contributing to the majority traffic injuries and crashes. This paper examines the influence of personality factors on RDB and the mediating role of intention and attitude in the relationship. The influence of different SES, personality, marital status, and gender characteristics on attitude, intention, and risky driving was also examined. A sample of 354 fully licensed Ghanaian drivers, including 278 males and 76 females, participated in the study at two times points separated by three months. The correlation results showed that unhealthy family relationship and negative emotions were positively associated with illegal speed-related behaviors, risky driving, and accident involvement. The results of a structural equation model suggested that personality variables significantly and positively influence intention and attitude toward speeding, with normlessness directly and positively influencing RBD. The mediation analysis shows that intention mediated the effects of personality variables on RBD. No significant mediating effect for attitude was found. The analysis of variance result shows that drivers with high socioeconomic status and personality had the high intention and attitude toward speeding and reported more RDB. Finally, drivers who had been divorced significantly reported more positive attitude toward speeding than the married and single group. Based on the results, the study concludes that, in accessing the effect of personality measures on RDB, it is important to include intention as a possible mediator for more accurate decision. Practical implications for managing different personalities and socioeconomic positions are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current studies on traffic crash prediction mainly focus on the crash frequency and crash severity of freeways or arterials. However, collision type for urban expressway crash is rarely considered. Meanwhile, with the rapid development of urban expressway systems in China in recent years, traffic safety problems have attracted more attention. In addition, the traffic characteristics are considered to be a potentially important predictor of traffic accidents; however, their impact on crashes has been controversial. Therefore, a crash frequency predicting model for urban expressway considering collision types is proposed in this study. The loop detector traffic data and historical crash data were aggregated based on the similarities of the traffic conditions 5 minutes before crash occurrence, among which crashes were divided by collision type (rear-end collision and side-impact collision). The impact of traffic characteristics along with weather variables as well as their interactions on crash frequency was modelled by using negative binomial regression model. The results indicated that the influence of traffic and weather factors on two collision types shared similar trend, but different level. For rear-end collisions, crash frequency increased with lower average speed and high traffic volume under low speed limit. And when the speed limit is high, higher average speed coupled with larger volume increases the probability of crash. Higher average speed and traffic volume increase the probability of side-impact collisions, without being affected by the speed limit. The findings of the present study could help to determine efficient safety countermeasures aimed at improving the safety performance of urban expressway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The relationships between traffic climate and driver behaviors were examined cross-culturally. • External affective demands and aberrant driver behaviors were positively related in Turkey and China. • External affective demands and positive driver behaviors were negatively related in Turkey and China. • Violations were negatively related to functionality in Turkey and negatively related to internal requirements in China. • The patterns of relationships might show both similarities and differences between countries. Road traffic accidents/fatalities and driver behaviors show regional differences. It is assumed that the perceived traffic climate in a given context is closely related to driver behaviors. In the current study, this assumption was tested cross-culturally for the first time. The aim was to compare the perceived traffic climate and driver behaviors between Turkey and China. Also, the relationships between traffic climate and driver behaviors in Turkey and China were investigated. In the study, there were 292 drivers aged between 21 and 64 years from China and 294 drivers aged between 19 and 61 from Turkey. The results revealed that Turkish drivers perceived their traffic climate higher in internal requirements and lower in external affective demands and functionality than Chinese drivers. Among driver behaviors, Turkish drivers reported higher numbers of violation and lower numbers of error than Chinese drivers. Perceiving traffic climate as externally demanding was positively related to aberrant driver behaviors (i.e., violations and errors) and negatively related to positive driver behaviors in both Turkey and China. Functionality was negatively related to violations in Turkey, and internal requirements were negatively related to violations in China. In both Turkey and China, external affective demands and functionality were closely related to driver behaviors and might be critical dimensions in road traffic safety. The interventions to improve road traffic safety should be planned based on the differences among cultures. Based on the differences, it might be plausible to suggest that more functional traffic is desired to increase road safety in Turkey, whereas higher internal requirements are important to increase road safety in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The FOT data from 46 participants was used to analyze the effectiveness of drivers' characteristics, including gender, occupation and experience, on driving behaviors on a freeway deceleration lane. • Male drivers recognize risk more than female drivers, and also have more aggressive driving tendencies. • Professional drivers and experienced drivers made the last lane-change as early as possible to enter the deceleration lane. • The speed of the vehicles entering the exit ramp was significantly higher than the design speed. • The minimum TTC and the maximum deceleration show that the certain driving behaviors are related to high traffic risk. Abstract Deceleration lanes improve traffic flow by reducing interference, increasing capacity and enhancing safety. However, accident rates are higher on these interchange segments than on other freeway segments. It is important to attempt to reduce traffic accidents on these interchange segments by further exploring the behavior of different types of drivers on a highway deceleration lane. In this study, with field operational test (FOT) data from 89 driving instances (derived from 46 participants driving the test road twice) on a typical freeway deceleration lane, section speed profiles, vehicle trajectories, lane position and other key parameters were obtained. The lane-change characteristics and speed profiles of drivers with different genders, occupations and experiences were analyzed. The significant disparities between them reflects the risk associated with different groups of drivers. The study shows that male drivers changed to the outside lane earlier; professional drivers and experienced drivers made the last lane change as early as possible to enter the deceleration lane; and the speed of the vehicles entering the exit ramp was significantly higher than the speed limit. This research work provides ground truth data for deceleration lane design, driver ability training and off-ramp traffic safety management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This research presents a comprehensive analysis of motor vehicle–bicycle crashes using 4 years of reported crash data (2004–2007) in Beijing. The interrelationship of irregular maneuvers, crash patterns and bicyclist injury severity are investigated by controlling for a variety of risk factors related to bicyclist demographics, roadway geometric design, road environment, etc. Results show that different irregular maneuvers are correlated with a number of risk factors at different roadway locations such as the bicyclist age and gender, weather and traffic condition. Furthermore, angle collisions are the leading pattern of motor vehicle–bicycle crashes, and different irregular maneuvers may lead to some specific crash patterns such as head-on or rear-end crashes. Orthokinetic scrape is more likely to result in running over bicyclists, which may lead to more severe injury. Moreover, bicyclist injury severity level could be elevated by specific crash patterns and risk factors including head-on and angle collisions, occurrence of running over bicyclists, night without streetlight, roads without median/division, higher speed limit, heavy vehicle involvement and older bicyclists. This study suggests installation of median, division between roadway and bikeway, and improvement of illumination on road segments. Reduced speed limit is also recommended at roadway locations with high bicycle traffic volume. Furthermore, it may be necessary to develop safety campaigns aimed at male, teenage and older bicyclists. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Frequent water traffic accidents pose severe threats to human life and property safety, the water environment, and adverse effects on social stability. Understanding historical accidents is essential for accident prevention and risk mitigation. However, at present, research on the comprehensive statistical analysis of characteristics and causes of ship accidents that occurred in the inland water areas of the Yangtze River, especially in the fluctuating backwater area (FBA) of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region, is still scanty, even less a hierarchical and systematic analysis framework. Therefore, this paper proposes a comprehensive ship accident characteristics and causes analysis framework, and summarizes and visualizes the characteristics of ship accidents through the statistical and comparative analysis of historical data in terms of categories and severity of accidents, ship types involved in accidents, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, ship accident losses, and root causes and lessons learned from the related accidents. In order to demonstrate the value of the proposed framework, based on the official sources, ten years of ship accident data from 2009 to 2018 in the FBA of TGR region are collected and analyzed in detail. On the basis of the results, this paper summarizes accident prevention and supervision guidelines to provide decision support for maritime safety. This research is of significance to the water traffic accident precaution and risk mitigation in this region and can be useful for other similar specific scenarios worldwide. • A hierarchical and systematic investigation framework is proposed for characteristics and causes analysis of ship accidents. • Human errors, unsafe ship conditions, and harsh traffic environment conditions are the main risk categories for water traffic accidents. • Ship accidents threaten human life safety and cause substantial economic losses, and accident prevention is the core of safety management. • Comprehensive case study manifests the proposed framework is applicable and significant to ship accidents analysis and risk mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, the increasing density of water traffic has caused the ship's navigation environment to deteriorate, resulting in frequent water traffic accidents. In addition, a majority of maritime accidents are caused by human factors, and one of the important ways to solve the ship accidents caused by human factors is to utilize intelligent maneuvering of ships. Based on the actual crews' operational data from full-task handling simulation platform, this study combines a 30,000-ton bulk carrier inbound navigation scenario and uses the decision tree method to propose a knowledge learning model under multiple environmental constraints to give intelligent ships the ability to make decisions like a human: An intelligent ship Human-like Decision-making Maneuvering Decision Recognition (HDMDR) model. The decision-making mechanism for the maneuvering behavior of Officer On Watch (OOW) under the influence of the specific water traffic environment in the inbound scenario is analyzed, and the OOW's decision-making knowledge is automatically acquired and represented. The validation tests and the comparative analysis with the classic classification algorithms of k-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are performed to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed HDMDR model. This paper provides a feasible basis for the human-like decision-making analysis of intelligent ships. • Enable a ship to make decisions like a human under multiple environmental constraints. • Propose a novel intelligent ship human-like maneuvering decision recognition model. • Develop the new standardization principle of maneuvering decision-making factors. • Automatic acquisition and representation of the OOW's decision-making knowledge. • Obtain the actual crews' operational data from full-task handling simulation platform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]